Are you worried about the Coronavirus?

[TooPatient]

Someone shared this blog to a FB group. It is well written. Not alarmist but also doesn't downplay. Woman writing is an epidemiologist.

Link to her blog

Text of blog:

Hi folks,

A number of you have asked me what I think is going to happen with coronavirus (COVID-19) and what we should be doing to prepare. I have a few thoughts about what’s likely to happen and what you should do about it. For those of you who don’t know me well, I am a preventive medicine physician and infectious disease epidemiologist. I graduated from the CDC’s Epidemic Intelligence Service and have over 17 years of experience in the field, most of that with CDC.

Wishing everyone good health,

Juliana

Who should you listen to?

The CDC and your state health department are your best place for information about COVID-19. (Listen to them before you listen to me.) Be cautious about other sources of information - many of them will not be reliable or accurate.

How bad is this going to be?

It’s possible that COVID-19 will be similar to a bad flu year but there are a number of indications that it will be very much like the 1918 Flu Pandemic. To put that in perspective, the 1918 flu did not end civilization as we know it but it was the second-deadliest event of the last 200 years. Expect people you know to die.

However, there is one critical difference between COVID-19 and the 1918 flu - the 1918 flu virus hit children and young adults particularly hard. COVID-19 seems to be most severe in older adults. Children and young adults generally have mild infections. We are grateful for this.

What can we expect?

This is not the zombie apocalypse. Core infrastructure (e.g., power, water, supermarkets, internet, government, etc.) will continue to work, perhaps with some minor disruptions.

There will be significant economic disruption: a global recession is very possible and there will probably be significant shortages of some products. The healthcare system will be hit the hardest. The number of people who are likely to get sick is higher than our healthcare systems can probably handle.

Daily life will be impacted in important ways. Travel is likely to be limited and public gatherings will probably be canceled. Schools will probably be closed. Expect health departments to start issuing these orders in the near future, especially on the West Coast.

The acute pandemic will probably last at least for several months and quite possibly for a year or two.

What can we do?

We can’t keep COVID-19 from being a global pandemic but the more we can do to slow the spread of the disease, the less severe the impact will be. With that in mind, here are the things you can do:

Stay calm but take it seriously. This will likely be bad but it’s not the apocalypse.

Stay home if you’re sick or someone in your house is sick.

Leave medical supplies for healthcare workers. You shouldn’t be stockpiling masks or other medical supplies. They are needed in hospitals to keep our healthcare workers healthy.

Wash your hands. Get in the habit of frequently washing your hands thoroughly and covering your cough.

Minimize your exposure. Now that we’re seeing community transmission, it’s probably time to start cutting back on your exposure to other people. Depending on your circumstances:

• Cancel all non-essential travel (and most of it is non-essential!)
• Avoid large-scale gatherings
• Work from home if possible
• Minimize direct contact with others including hand shakes and hugs
• Reduce your trips out of the house. If possible, shop for two weeks of groceries at once or consider having your groceries delivered.

Remember, keep calm and prepare. This is likely to be bad but if we respond calmly and thoughtfully we can handle it.

 

[MarionC]

I’m dying over here! I had the phone in my pocket. I butt posted gibberish and a pic of the pizza I made on Friday! How did I do that?!

Oh for pete’s sake, I read that and thought it made sense!


Edit: not really. Love you!

 

[MamaBee]

Oh for pete’s sake, I read that and thought it made sense!


Edit: not really. Love you!

@Jimmianne!

 

[House Cat]

My husband and son are going to a NBA game tonight and he said maybe our friend F would come to our house and park here, and then I could drop them all off and pick them up.

F just celebrated his divorce by taking his kids to Europe. Hold up, I said, tell me it wasn’t Italy (F is Italian). F is sleeping right now so we don’t know.

I said this is how it happens. Come back from Italy incubating, go to NBA game and infect everyone.... just saying....

It may not have been Italy, but I’m putting my money on he took the kids to Italy, including Rome and the Vatican.

Maybe it’s just me but this guy has a moral obligation to make sure he isn’t sick before he puts himself in a stadium full of people.

 

[whitewave]

Maybe it’s just me but this guy has a moral obligation to make sure he isn’t sick before he puts himself in a stadium full of people.

Yeah, I’m going to get the story when he gets here. He did tell Dh just now that everyone had face masks on everywhere he went,

 

[telephone89]

Coronavirus miracle? Vietnam says all its infected patients cured

World Health Organization officials and health experts say swift response crucial in containing virus in the country.

www.aljazeera.com

I thought this was interesting. Vietnam took immediate and possibly extreme action to prevent the spread and so far it seems like they've eliminated it. Their schools have been closed since prior to lunar new year, set to open again tomorrow.

 

[the_mother_thing]

Yeah, I’m going to get the story when he gets here. He did tell Dh just now that everyone had face masks on everywhere he went,

Even if it wasn’t Italy, it’s possible & likely he was on a plane with people who were. Not trying to be an alarmist, but if that were me - as a measure of protection for others - I would be limiting my exposure in public places until I was certain I wouldn’t put others at risk.

 

[TooPatient]

Heads up for people in areas without cases yet. Cleaning supplies, alcohol wipes (like those needing injections would need), distilled water (bottled water in general), and toilet paper selling out fast here. They can't keep things stocked. I am seeing people report that grocery delivery orders have had these items cancelled as they don't have them. I just checked out Amazon and anything disinfecting is at least two days away and many things are showing as just out of stock.

 

[facetgirl]

@TooPatient where I am on east coast there are no reported cases. I've gone to 3 stores and there is no hand sanitizer (although I agree with the poster who said washing with hand soap is actually preferable, and even the large bottles of hand soap are in low supply). Toilet paper is around but you can tell people are starting to purchase as shelves are low. Same with paper towels. What is odd is just today, the cleaning supplies, including bleach, are off the shelves. Shelves are completely bare.

I bought a small stash of things for the "just in case" situation - some food, pet food, detergent, OTC meds, etc. Ultimately there is only so much we can control.

Thank you for the link to the blog. It is indeed very well written.

I'm curious- how are folks talking with their kids about this? Mine are teens. They are starting to get a little nervous. I've shared with them that preparing is the best they can do, and that includes getting in the habit of being well informed and, washing their hands all of the time.

 

[MamaBee]

I’ve been having talks with my husband about this...He will not limit his exposure because of the type of business he is in. I will take my crew to my other house in Maryland. I went to Sam’s yesterday and bought a lot of things there to stock the pantry. We don’t usually keep much there so I had to get a lot. I thought I bought sanitizer but it was liquid sanitizing soap..no alcohol.
This is part of the pantry. The house is 116 years old so not a lot of storage for stuff...I put some things in my guest room too..

 

[AGBF]

You all make me feel woefully under-prepared. I figured I had enough stuff in my house already to stay put if we were told to stay in place. I am worried about my daughter's fiancé. He has legal obligations to be in certain places at certain times. But he sleeps here. I don't want him going out and getting exposed to Coronavirus and bringing it back.

 

[diamondseeker2006]

Someone shared this blog to a FB group. It is well written. Not alarmist but also doesn't downplay. Woman writing is an epidemiologist.

Link to her blog

Text of blog:

Hi folks,

A number of you have asked me what I think is going to happen with coronavirus (COVID-19) and what we should be doing to prepare. I have a few thoughts about what’s likely to happen and what you should do about it. For those of you who don’t know me well, I am a preventive medicine physician and infectious disease epidemiologist. I graduated from the CDC’s Epidemic Intelligence Service and have over 17 years of experience in the field, most of that with CDC.

Wishing everyone good health,

Juliana

Who should you listen to?

The CDC and your state health department are your best place for information about COVID-19. (Listen to them before you listen to me.) Be cautious about other sources of information - many of them will not be reliable or accurate.

How bad is this going to be?

It’s possible that COVID-19 will be similar to a bad flu year but there are a number of indications that it will be very much like the 1918 Flu Pandemic. To put that in perspective, the 1918 flu did not end civilization as we know it but it was the second-deadliest event of the last 200 years. Expect people you know to die.

However, there is one critical difference between COVID-19 and the 1918 flu - the 1918 flu virus hit children and young adults particularly hard. COVID-19 seems to be most severe in older adults. Children and young adults generally have mild infections. We are grateful for this.

What can we expect?

This is not the zombie apocalypse. Core infrastructure (e.g., power, water, supermarkets, internet, government, etc.) will continue to work, perhaps with some minor disruptions.

There will be significant economic disruption: a global recession is very possible and there will probably be significant shortages of some products. The healthcare system will be hit the hardest. The number of people who are likely to get sick is higher than our healthcare systems can probably handle.

Daily life will be impacted in important ways. Travel is likely to be limited and public gatherings will probably be canceled. Schools will probably be closed. Expect health departments to start issuing these orders in the near future, especially on the West Coast.

The acute pandemic will probably last at least for several months and quite possibly for a year or two.

What can we do?

We can’t keep COVID-19 from being a global pandemic but the more we can do to slow the spread of the disease, the less severe the impact will be. With that in mind, here are the things you can do:

Stay calm but take it seriously. This will likely be bad but it’s not the apocalypse.

Stay home if you’re sick or someone in your house is sick.

Leave medical supplies for healthcare workers. You shouldn’t be stockpiling masks or other medical supplies. They are needed in hospitals to keep our healthcare workers healthy.

Wash your hands. Get in the habit of frequently washing your hands thoroughly and covering your cough.

Minimize your exposure. Now that we’re seeing community transmission, it’s probably time to start cutting back on your exposure to other people. Depending on your circumstances:

• Cancel all non-essential travel (and most of it is non-essential!)
• Avoid large-scale gatherings
• Work from home if possible
• Minimize direct contact with others including hand shakes and hugs
• Reduce your trips out of the house. If possible, shop for two weeks of groceries at once or consider having your groceries delivered.

Remember, keep calm and prepare. This is likely to be bad but if we respond calmly and thoughtfully we can handle it.

Yikes, if this isn't alarmist, I don't know what is!

"Expect people you know to die."

Okay, I would like to know why she is saying that. Look at China. About 80,000 cases, death toll under 3000. It's is unlikely that out of 1.5 billion people that most of them know one of the 3k who have died, and that should remain the case if the death toll stays around 2% of those infected. What I've read on the CDC site indicates they think it will spread, but I don't consider what they are saying now as alarmist.

 

[the_mother_thing]

@diamondseeker2006 Agreed; while common sense ‘preparedness’ is wise, comments like that contribute to unnecessary fear and panic, and have the potential to make scenes from the movie Contagion quickly become a reality.

While I’m glad our pantry is always kept reasonably well-stocked, seeing that sort of ‘underground communication’ being spread, I’m thankful our other ‘protective measures’ are also well-stocked. Fear, panic & desperation make people do crazy things.

 

[diamondseeker2006]

@diamondseeker2006 Agreed; while common sense ‘preparedness’ is wise, comments like that contribute to unnecessary fear and panic, and have the potential to make scenes from the movie Contagion quickly become a reality.

While I’m glad our pantry is always kept reasonably well-stocked, seeing that sort of ‘underground communication’ being spread, I’m thankful our other ‘protective measures’ are also well-stocked. Fear, panic & desperation make people do crazy things.

Hadn't thought of that, but yeah, will confirm with the DH, also.

 

[ksinger]

@TooPatient where I am on east coast there are no reported cases. I've gone to 3 stores and there is no hand sanitizer (although I agree with the poster who said washing with hand soap is actually preferable, and even the large bottles of hand soap are in low supply).

Pssst! Liquor store, bottle of Everclear Grain Alcohol. Sanitize hands, counters, doorknobs, toilets etc. Make limoncello or your own coffee liqueur if you're bored.

 

[TooPatient]

Yikes, if this isn't alarmist, I don't know what is!

"Expect people you know to die."

Okay, I would like to know why she is saying that. Look at China. About 80,000 cases, death toll under 3000. It's is unlikely that out of 1.5 billion people that most of them know one of the 3k who have died, and that should remain the case if the death toll stays around 2% of those infected. What I've read on the CDC site indicates they think it will spread, but I don't consider what they are saying now as alarmist.

I guess I didn't read it as alarmist because I do expect to know people who die. Many friends are older or have other health issues. I guess for many, that could be alarming.

 

[Matata]

I'm healthy but in the age group considered at-risk for any darn bug that comes along, and I suppose that's why it is annoying to hear people's complacency about the potential death toll. Kinda like, if it doesn't happen to me or someone I love, I don't care. Normal human reaction but I'm still annoyed. Also sort of reminds me when HIV first appeared and people who weren't gay thought they and their loved one were safe. But that is my nit to pick and I picked it and now a little humor.

 

[the_mother_thing]

Pssst! Liquor store, bottle of Everclear Grain Alcohol. Sanitize hands, counters, doorknobs, toilets etc. Make limoncello or your own coffee liqueur if you're bored.

Yup, or the cheapest/bottom shelf vodka you can find. I suspect stores with those shopping cart wipes will be short on them in no time (if not already in some areas), so put a little alcohol (or diluted bleach, Lysol, etc) in a small spray bottle (think eye glass lens spray sized), and keep it in your purse when in public. I always have one on in my purse (with Lysol) for that very reason. ‘Virus’ aside, those are nasty, disgusting germ collectors all year long.

 

[whitewave]

Even if it wasn’t Italy, it’s possible & likely he was on a plane with people who were. Not trying to be an alarmist, but if that were me - as a measure of protection for others - I would be limiting my exposure in public places until I was certain I wouldn’t put others at risk.

He went to London and Paris. He is a doctor . He seems rather jet lagged, so maybe he will cancel the game tonight.

 

[the_mother_thing]

I hear you, @Matata ... I’m less worried about us, and more so our parents. My MIL is almost 80, lives alone, and very ‘unwell’ right now (not related to CV) in another state; hubs has been down there with her again all week. I told him to make sure she is well ‘stocked up’ on supplies before he leaves, given her age & immune system is already compromised. She does not need to have to go out for soup, and risk exposure unnecessarily. In all honesty, I wish he would bring her to our home for the next several weeks/few months, as she would be much safer/better off here, but ‘stubbornness’ ...

 

[the_mother_thing]

He went to London and Paris. He is a doctor . He seems rather jet lagged, so maybe he will cancel the game tonight.

I think I’d cancel it for him ... plead with his senses ... ‘dude, you’re a doctor, you’re tired, all kinds of crud in the air, get some rest because people may need you at your best soon...’

 

[MaisOuiMadame]

Yikes, if this isn't alarmist, I don't know what is!

"Expect people you know to die."

Okay, I would like to know why she is saying that. Look at China. About 80,000 cases, death toll under 3000. It's is unlikely that out of 1.5 billion people that most of them know one of the 3k who have died, and that should remain the case if the death toll stays around 2% of those infected. What I've read on the CDC site indicates they think it will spread, but I don't consider what they are saying now as alarmist.

I just think she's not sugar coating it. I've read interviews with the leading epidemiologists and virologists in Germany and France and several articles in English were those scientists think that eventually about 60-70% of the population will get this Virus. She's a scientist in a similar field. I guess she read those articles as well.

So it's pretty likely that at the end of the pandemic everyone has lost someone they know.


ETA: to make it clearer: I was responding directly to the question "why she is saying that"

This is given they don't find a vaccine/and or means of containing the virus more efficiently soon.

 

[Arcadian]

Italy Travel Advisory

travel.state.gov

]

Basically, don't go to Italy is the word. The Louve is closed (normal, not normal?)

And BJ's in Royal Palm, FL was pretty empty this morning. I was in and out quickly. They had plenty of toilet paper, paper towels, bleach, etc.

 

[canuk-gal]

Pssst! Liquor store, bottle of Everclear Grain Alcohol. Sanitize hands, counters, doorknobs, toilets etc. Make limoncello or your own coffee liqueur if you're bored.

Finally! Something sensible!

 

[AGBF]

Today a case was discovered in Rhode Island, the state next door to me. I read this aloud to my daughter. When I got to the part about the number of people the man had met with since returning to the United States, she just started to laugh. Sorry, but if we didn't laugh at the folly of thinking we can contain this, we'd cry.

"Rhode Island on Sunday reported its first “presumptive positive” coronavirus case, a man in his 40s who had recently traveled to Italy, France and Spain, state officials said at a news conference on Sunday.

It was the first case in the United States officials had linked to travel in Europe.
The man was being treated in the hospital on Sunday, and his immediate family had quarantined themselves at home, the officials said.

The patient had not been to work and had limited travel in Rhode Island since returning from Europe, according to the state’s health department. State officials said that they were trying to reach at least 40 people who had come in contact with the man and were asking those people to quarantine themselves for 14 days since their contact."

 

[ksinger]

I guess I didn't read it as alarmist because I do expect to know people who die. Many friends are older or have other health issues. I guess for many, that could be alarming.

I appreciate several things in your blog post TP. Her saying to get prepared to know people who will die from this, is sobering, not alarmist. At least not for people who don't need paternalistic platitudes. I'm done with medical people of every stripe who won't tell the truth, even if it's painful.

I'm also appreciative that she noted that this has a good chance of being a marathon, not a sprint. Just because spring and summer are coming, does NOT mean this virus will magically go away. It could die down, we could lapse back to complacency, exhausted by all the fear and freaking, then it may come BACK. This was part of her reference to the 1918 flu, which started in the spring of 1918 into that summer, was severe but not so lethal, then mutated and came back in another 2 VERY lethal waves, one in the fall of 1918, and the other in the early part of 1919.

 

[diamondseeker2006]

I guess I didn't read it as alarmist because I do expect to know people who die. Many friends are older or have other health issues. I guess for many, that could be alarming.

By no means do I mean to dismiss the possibility of the seriousness of the situation for people who have weak immune systems, poor health care, etc. that could result in serious illness or death. But again, in a country like China where there is poorer health care and very bad pollution in areas, we are not still not seeing an exponentially increasing death toll at this point as recoveries are higher than new cases. You must be expecting this to be much worse in the US than China. Thus far, I am sure the flu/pneumonia death toll is far higher there and here every year. Yet I don't personally know any elderly person who has died this winter (or the last 10) of pneumonia. So that's why I totally disagree with the prediction that we will virtually all know people who die from this virus. I sincerely hope I am the one that's right this time. If I am not, then yeah, life as we know it may not be the same for a very long time.

(I think there are likely thousands of undiagnosed cases here already. Most are likely mild and people don't usually go to doctors for mild illnesses, not to mention doctor's offices wouldn't have the tests anyway.)

 

[yssie]

My company has cancelled several of our upcoming yearly gatherings and I expect the remainder will be cancelled shortly. Me, I'm the sort of person that somehow comes down with pneumonia if someone across the room sneezes so I personally don't plan to attend any of them. I can't not travel, my job demands it, but I'm driving rather than taking public transport as much as possible, and I'm using hand sanitizer copiously.

I'm not worried about dying from coronavirus. I am worried about other people worrying about dying from coronavirus! As @the_mother_thing and others have said - fear invariably leads people to crazy...

 

[whitewave]

We visited with my SIL today and she is a nurse at a large NOLA hospital in infectious diseases and she said the epidemiologist there so over coronavirus. My SIL said that doc said it’s all hype.

So whatever.... I guess we will find out eventually.

 

[whitewave]

 

[House Cat]

The idea that spring and summer will cause this virus to die down isn’t comforting to me. We have been having unseasonably warm weather in Northern California, what would be called “spring weather” (59 to 74 degrees) for some other areas of the country, and we are seeing community spread. I’m a little further inland than Solono County and my weather has been even warmer. It was 79 degrees on some days last week. We will see if this affects the spread.