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Prices Prices Prices - The bottom is near for ordinary folk

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Interesting Garry but I don''t agree with your conclusion in the title.
The mix of goods may have just changed with more expensive stones remaining unsold which will raise the average.
 
Very much like the residential and commercial real estate markets.
 
Date: 1/5/2009 8:39:52 AM
Author: strmrdr
Interesting Garry but I don''t agree with your conclusion in the title.
The mix of goods may have just changed with more expensive stones remaining unsold which will raise the average.
Click to expand...
Interesting view Karl..., can you explain how you base your thought?
 
Date: 1/5/2009 9:02:20 AM
Author: DiaGem
Date: 1/5/2009 8:39:52 AM

Author: strmrdr

Interesting Garry but I don''t agree with your conclusion in the title.

The mix of goods may have just changed with more expensive stones remaining unsold which will raise the average.
Click to expand...
Interesting view Karl..., can you explain how you base your thought?
Click to expand...
In hard times people move downstream on color and clarity to get the size they want.
That leaves a lot of high end stones unsold.
There is far more interest in kl colored diamonds on PS than ever before is one indicator but not a proof.
It has been happening since I joined PS with J colored stones on a slower basis.
When I first joined I colored round stones were looked at like J colored round stones are today and J colored stones were viewed like K colored round stones are today.
The economy has kicked up the process as it has been moving faster in the last few months.
Same with clarity, si2 is the new si1 as far as perception goes.
 
Date: 1/5/2009 9:20:12 AM
Author: strmrdr

In hard times people move downstream on color and clarity to get the size they want.
That leaves a lot of high end stones unsold.
There is far more interest in kl colored diamonds on PS than ever before is one indicator but not a proof.
It has been happening since I joined PS with J colored stones on a slower basis.
When I first joined I colored round stones were looked at like J colored round stones are today and J colored stones were viewed like K colored round stones are today.
The economy has kicked up the process as it has been moving faster in the last few months.
Same with clarity, si2 is the new si1 as far as perception goes.
Click to expand...
Possible. But couldn''t the move to lower colour/clarity also be dictated by income growth (in $, not %) simply falling below price increases for higher coloured stones? Then income falls (real or expected), and double whammy!
 
diamond prices will not go up until the world gets out of recession. we''ll see 2-3 ct stones at 2003 prices again.
 
There are several variables that are present in the PS database that are difficult to separate and that are important in making conclusions like this. I do agree that the data is interesting but I don't think the conclusion is supported.

The first is how long a stone has been present in the dataset. A stone that remains listed for a long time because it’s unsold will have a bigger effect on these averages than a stone that is only present for a short time. Put another way, a stone listed for a high price and that doesn’t sell will be present in the averages for any date over the entire span it's listed while a stone that sells very quickly will be present for only one, if even that. Since the averages are a snapshot in time, this is an important effect.

Second, prices are set by unilaterally by the sellers. At the top end of the chart (D-E/VVS2, 4-99ct) there isn’t a single stone present in the database so if a seller were to list one it would immediately dominate the ‘average’ of that category regardless of whether their asking price is reasonable or if they have any realistic chance of getting it.

Third is the assumption that the asking prices result directly in transaction prices. Although these are closer on PS than they are in the B&M’s, it is not valid to assume that a stone that is listed and is then removed is evidence of a sale at that price. It might be, but it also may have sold elsewhere or it may have simply been taken off of the market because the seller is unwilling to let it go for the prices that the buyers seem to be willing to pay.

Neil Beaty
GG(GIA) ICGA(AGS) NAJA
Professional Appraisals in Denver
 
Date: 1/5/2009 9:20:12 AM
Author: strmrdr

Date: 1/5/2009 9:02:20 AM
Author: DiaGem

Date: 1/5/2009 8:39:52 AM

Author: strmrdr

Interesting Garry but I don''t agree with your conclusion in the title.

The mix of goods may have just changed with more expensive stones remaining unsold which will raise the average.
Click to expand...
Interesting view Karl..., can you explain how you base your thought?
Click to expand...
In hard times people move downstream on color and clarity to get the size they want.
That leaves a lot of high end stones unsold.
There is far more interest in kl colored diamonds on PS than ever before is one indicator but not a proof.
It has been happening since I joined PS with J colored stones on a slower basis.
When I first joined I colored round stones were looked at like J colored round stones are today and J colored stones were viewed like K colored round stones are today.
The economy has kicked up the process as it has been moving faster in the last few months.
Same with clarity, si2 is the new si1 as far as perception goes.
Click to expand...
See..., I notice the opposite with the majority of my clients...., they are pushing upstream (as history shows thats where the value is kept in a bad case scenarios).

I know quite a lot of dealers that moved downstream also..., but I think its because they are more involved in the US market. (I could be wrong!!)

We must remember though..., PS (preferences) reflect a drop in the bucket when it comes to the "real" market (ocean).
 
Date: 1/5/2009 9:43:35 AM
Author: denverappraiser
There are several variables that are present in the PS database that are difficult to separate and that are important in making conclusions like this. I do agree that the data is interesting but I don''t think the conclusion is supported.

The first is how long a stone has been present in the dataset. A stone that remains listed for a long time because it’s unsold will have a bigger effect on these averages than a stone that is only present for a short time. Put another way, a stone listed for a high price and that doesn’t sell will be present in the averages for any date over the entire span it''s listed while a stone that sells very quickly will be present for only one, if even that. Since the averages are a snapshot in time, this is an important effect.

Second, prices are set by unilaterally by the sellers. At the top end of the chart (D-E/VVS2, 4-99ct) there isn’t a single stone present in the database so if a seller were to list one it would immediately dominate the ‘average’ of that category regardless of whether their asking price is reasonable or if they have any realistic chance of getting it.

Third is the assumption that the asking prices result directly in transaction prices. Although these are closer on PS than they are in the B&M’s, it is not valid to assume that a stone that is listed and is then removed is evidence of a sale at that price. It might be, but it also may have sold elsewhere or it may have simply been taken off of the market because the seller is unwilling to let it go for the prices that the buyers seem to be willing to pay.

Neil Beaty
GG(GIA) ICGA(AGS) NAJA
Professional Appraisals in Denver
Click to expand...
Bingo....

Thats why I take all these statistics on prices extremely cautious..., the reality is ALWAYS different..., especially in turbulent times as these days!
 
Everybody will find in statistics what one wants to find.

If you look carefully at the charts, you will see that apparently prices for all stones under 2Ct have gone up compared to one month ago.

Live long,
 
Date: 1/5/2009 9:57:44 AM
Author: Paul-Antwerp
Everybody will find in statistics what one wants to find.


If you look carefully at the charts, you will see that apparently prices for all stones under 2Ct have gone up compared to one month ago.


Live long,
Click to expand...
Idex which is a bigger average says only .5ct went up however.
Honestly I don''t think any conclusions can be drawn at this point.
 
Date: 1/5/2009 9:57:44 AM
Author: Paul-Antwerp
Everybody will find in statistics what one wants to find.

If you look carefully at the charts, you will see that apparently prices for all stones under 2Ct have gone up compared to one month ago.

Live long,
Click to expand...
True..., as they were never inflated as the 3 or even worse the 4 ct. up were!
I have been purchasing carats and under for years within the (same) 10% range.
 
Date: 1/5/2009 10:00:14 AM
Author: strmrdr

Date: 1/5/2009 9:57:44 AM
Author: Paul-Antwerp
Everybody will find in statistics what one wants to find.


If you look carefully at the charts, you will see that apparently prices for all stones under 2Ct have gone up compared to one month ago.


Live long,
Click to expand...
Idex which is a bigger average says only .5ct went up however.
Honestly I don''t think any conclusions can be drawn at this point.
Click to expand...
Idex price drivers are based on "ASKING" prices! I persona;ly e mailed them and asked how close their asking prices are vs. real transaction prices, and I never got a reply till this day....
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Date: 1/5/2009 10:06:21 AM
Author: DiaGem
Idex price drivers are based on ''ASKING'' prices! I persona;ly e mailed them and asked how close their asking prices are vs. real transaction prices, and I never got a reply till this day....
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Click to expand...
Idex is a better representation of ''asking prices'' than Rapaport however because more of the stones listed there are actually for sale as opposed to stones that Rap is shipping to and from GIA.
And it seems that the IDEX prices are moving in some way to represent what is actually happening in the market.

enjoyed all your comments and viewpoints
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Date: 1/5/2009 2:37:22 PM
Author: Garry H (Cut Nut)

Date: 1/5/2009 10:06:21 AM
Author: DiaGem
Idex price drivers are based on ''ASKING'' prices! I persona;ly e mailed them and asked how close their asking prices are vs. real transaction prices, and I never got a reply till this day....
29.gif
Click to expand...
Idex is a better representation of ''asking prices'' than Rapaport however because more of the stones listed there are actually for sale as opposed to stones that Rap is shipping to and from GIA.
And it seems that the IDEX prices are moving in some way to represent what is actually happening in the market.

enjoyed all your comments and viewpoints
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Click to expand...
So true...., since Rap is based numerous interview''s with some large sized entities passing on info on some real transaction numbers...
Basically a joke! But the industry adapted this system
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Depending on how the PS data is compiled, there is another variable to consider. Some stones are present in the database 4 or 5 times at approximately the same price from different vendors while others are there only once. Presumably this could be removed as part of the algorithm that leads to the graph but if not, it will have a significant affect on the conclusions.

My father once taught me that statistics is the only field of human knowledge where people know more than there is to be known.

Neil Beaty
GG(GIA) ICGA(AGS) NAJA
Professional Appraisals in Denver
 
Date: 1/5/2009 4:44:43 PM
Author: denverappraiser


My father once taught me that statistics is the only field of human knowledge where people know more than there is to be known.

Neil Beaty
GG(GIA) ICGA(AGS) NAJA
Professional Appraisals in Denver
Click to expand...
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