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Parenting Advice - Covid Style

GliderPoss

Ideal_Rock
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Sep 25, 2008
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I think stick to your guns and say not this time but offer a consolation prize, perhaps her boyfriend could come visit your house instead?
 

LAJennifer

Ideal_Rock
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Mar 2, 2005
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2,020
If you do not allow her to go, then she must also refrain from visiting any of the people who went for at least two weeks. You know what I mean? If she is going to see the boyfriend as soon as he gets home, then she might as well have gone on the trip.
 

mom2dolls

Shiny_Rock
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Sep 3, 2015
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184
An update from yesterday - the family does not have a boat, so they will not be anywhere on the river. The house they are staying at has a pool and they would be at the house the majority of the time. The friends parents that are renting the Airbnb have all been tested for Covid and are negative. Reason for testing was dad had to be tested for work, so the whole family chose to be tested.

We are thinking of letting her go only because there is no boat in the equation anymore. This removes the gathering with people, the herd gathering that terrified me and also the danger of being on the water period at the river. I grew up at Havasu and saw too many times the stupid things people do.

Essentially, she would be swimming and hanging out with the people she has already been around in her small bubble here.

She has to request time off work. So we will see if that is approved. If not and her boyfriend goes without her, we will be quarantining they for two weeks once he gets home. They are currently on a two week quarantine because he went to Vegas with his family this past weekend.
 

Daisys and Diamonds

Ideal_Rock
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While I was reading this thread a friend called me to ask that I help with his clients while he is out of town.

His younger step brother was out partying a lot went to visit his dad.
A few days later tested positive for covid.
A few days after that his dad had a high temp and passed away less than 2 days later. He had covid
Well anyone who is in any doubt, your friend's family just provided the answer
This is so tragic and avoidable
Mums and dads dont grow on trees.
Its just not worth risking other people's lived for the sake of a good time
 

Daisys and Diamonds

Ideal_Rock
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Apr 30, 2019
Messages
6,165
An update from yesterday - the family does not have a boat, so they will not be anywhere on the river. The house they are staying at has a pool and they would be at the house the majority of the time. The friends parents that are renting the Airbnb have all been tested for Covid and are negative. Reason for testing was dad had to be tested for work, so the whole family chose to be tested.

We are thinking of letting her go only because there is no boat in the equation anymore. This removes the gathering with people, the herd gathering that terrified me and also the danger of being on the water period at the river. I grew up at Havasu and saw too many times the stupid things people do.

Essentially, she would be swimming and hanging out with the people she has already been around in her small bubble here.

She has to request time off work. So we will see if that is approved. If not and her boyfriend goes without her, we will be quarantining they for two weeks once he gets home. They are currently on a two week quarantine because he went to Vegas with his family this past weekend.
This is good news
=)2
Its good to know the boyfriend's family seem to be responsible
 

anne_h

Brilliant_Rock
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Jun 13, 2005
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Is the death of a person from Cancer 12 months from now, because they didn't get diagnosed early enough (or at all), or didn't receive the treatment they were promised, less important than Covid?
I agree with much of what you said. And I agree deaths from all causes are equally important.

I think one reason COVID is getting so much attention now, at least in my country (Canada), is the fear that it could overwhelm the healthcare system. Not enough ICU beds, ventilators, etc. So I think that is part of why there is so much energy being spent on this one disease right now.

But still totally agree, pausing the whole healthcare system to deal with COVID is also not a great solution. This is a tough one.

Anne
 

qubitasaurus

Brilliant_Rock
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1,245
Errr if she is going to be hanging out with this boyfriend and his family a lot after they return and in pretty close personal contact then I might consider strategically if it was possible to work out exactly how risk tollerant the boyfriend's family were feeling and whether you could barter with her to take more precautions if she goes.

Like really I dont think you can avoid having some level of exposure here -- you just gef to negotiate the circumstances and maybe the terms with her.
 

missy

Super_Ideal_Rock
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I think one reason COVID is getting so much attention now, at least in my country (Canada), is the fear that it could overwhelm the healthcare system. Not enough ICU beds, ventilators, etc. So I think that is part of why there is so much energy being spent on this one disease right now.
This is exactly why.

This is what makes the Covid 19 pandemic different from other diseases. It can and will overwhelm the healthcare system in any country where it spikes again. Period.

This is why it is critical to wear masks, to physical (I prefer that word to social) distance and to quarantine for 2 weeks when necessary. To stay at home away from others when you can and when you go out to take all the appropriate precautions. Not just for your sake but for others around you @OoohShiny and anyone else who doesn't agree with being super cautious etc.

This is the reason. It's not just for you but to prevent the healthcare system from breaking down and not being able to take care of those who are ill. Not just from Covid 19 but from many other conditions. Because if they are overflowing and overwhelmed people (with all different health issues) will not get the care they need.
 

rainydaze

Ideal_Rock
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2,937
They are currently on a two week quarantine because he went to Vegas with his family this past weekend.
This right here would be the deal-breaker for me. It ends any attempt to discuss what precautions they may take and whether we could mesh our risk tolerances to make it work. Yes they are being conscientious with quarantining for two weeks afterward, but the choice to go to Vegas at all during this time doesn't sit well with me. Considering they were comfortable with that, it signals to me that I would likely not be comfortable with some of the choices they may make on this trip, and I would therefore feel confident in saying no to my child joining them.
 

TooPatient

Ideal_Rock
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9,295
This right here would be the deal-breaker for me. It ends any attempt to discuss what precautions they may take and whether we could mesh our risk tolerances to make it work. Yes they are being conscientious with quarantining for two weeks afterward, but the choice to go to Vegas at all during this time doesn't sit well with me. Considering they were comfortable with that, it signals to me that I would likely not be comfortable with some of the choices they may make on this trip, and I would therefore feel confident in saying no to my child joining them.
That is what I was thinking as I read the update too. The possible exception would be if they didn't need to fly and kept to a rental house while there. (Or with family who had been very cautious prior to their arrival.)
 

OoohShiny

Ideal_Rock
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This is exactly why.

This is what makes the Covid 19 pandemic different from other diseases. It can and will overwhelm the healthcare system in any country where it spikes again. Period.

This is why it is critical to wear masks, to physical (I prefer that word to social) distance and to quarantine for 2 weeks when necessary. To stay at home away from others when you can and when you go out to take all the appropriate precautions. Not just for your sake but for others around you @OoohShiny and anyone else who doesn't agree with being super cautious etc.

This is the reason. It's not just for you but to prevent the healthcare system from breaking down and not being able to take care of those who are ill. Not just from Covid 19 but from many other conditions. Because if they are overflowing and overwhelmed people (with all different health issues) will not get the care they need.
Oh hi ;-) lol :))


I think it's interesting that France is currently seeing large numbers of new cases being found (putting to one side whether a 'case' should be only those with symptoms, as has always been the case historically AIUI, or whether it should also be those that are asymptomatic, which I believe is the first time the term has been used in that way) but very few additional hospitalisations or deaths:


France C19 figures Sept 1st 2020.png

We are seeing similar over here in the UK, so I remain hopeful that the rises being seen now will be a 'casedemic' (to coin the phrase used on some sites that don't class themselves as 'MSM') and the worst case scenario fears will not be realised.

If they are not realised, I am wondering what public perception of the situation will be.
 

missy

Super_Ideal_Rock
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Oh hi ;-) lol :))


I think it's interesting that France is currently seeing large numbers of new cases being found (putting to one side whether a 'case' should be only those with symptoms, as has always been the case historically AIUI, or whether it should also be those that are asymptomatic, which I believe is the first time the term has been used in that way) but very few additional hospitalisations or deaths:


France C19 figures Sept 1st 2020.png

We are seeing similar over here in the UK, so I remain hopeful that the rises being seen now will be a 'casedemic' (to coin the phrase used on some sites that don't class themselves as 'MSM') and the worst case scenario fears will not be realised.

If they are not realised, I am wondering what public perception of the situation will be.
I guess time will show the full story. For now we just don't know.


Updated statistics for NJ.


Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.00.28 AM.png


Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.01.33 AM.png


"
At least 5 new coronavirus deaths and 614 new cases were reported in New Jersey on Oct. 1. Over the past week, there have been an average of 619 cases per day, an increase of 47 percent from the average two weeks earlier.

As of Friday morning, there have been at least 207,676 cases and 16,127 deaths in New Jersey since the beginning of the pandemic, according to a New York Times database.

In data for New Jersey, the Times primarily relies on reports from the state. New Jersey typically releases new data each day. Weekend counts may be lower because fewer sources report to the state. The state reports cases and deaths based on a person’s permanent or usual residence.
The Times has identified the following reporting anomalies or methodology changes in the data:
June 25: New Jersey began reporting probable deaths.
July 22: New Jersey removed duplicate or erroneous death reports, causing a decrease in the total number of deaths.
The tallies on this page include probable and confirmed cases and deaths.
Confirmed cases and deaths, which are widely considered to be an undercount of the true toll, are counts of individuals whose coronavirus infections were confirmed by a molecular laboratory test. Probable cases and deaths count individuals who meet criteria for other types of testing, symptoms and exposure, as developed by national and local governments.
Governments often revise data or report a single-day large increase in cases or deaths from unspecified days without historical revisions, which can cause an irregular pattern in the daily reported figures. The Times is excluding these anomalies from seven-day averages when possible.
"
 

missy

Super_Ideal_Rock
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Jun 8, 2008
Messages
40,547
NY statistics.


Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.05.24 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.05.50 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.05.44 AM.png


Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.06.29 AM.png

"The majority of the state's cases are in New York City, but the downstate suburbs are also major contributors to the total. Positive cases track only people with a positive COVID test result- because testing has been limited, the number of people who have actually been infected with COVID is much higher- about 10 times the positive cases, according to New York State's antibody screenings- on 5/2/20, they registered 20% of the sampled population was positive in NYC and 12% was positive in New York State. We do not yet know if a positive antibodies test signals that a person has become immune to COVID."


Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.07.08 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.08.05 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.07.58 AM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.07.52 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.07.40 AM.png
 

kipari

Ideal_Rock
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Jan 9, 2015
Messages
2,370
It's accurate that while cases are skyrocketing, hospitalizations and deaths aren't in France atm.


We're grateful for this. I have mainly been looking at death numbers, because in the beginning testing wasn't available.

There are two confirmed cases are my son's school. Both completely asymptomatic. Moat cases are young & healthy males.

This is precisely why masks are so important.

Most people don't go to see their 99 y/o grandpa when they think they'll expose him to Covid.

Most think they're healthy when in fact they are very contagious.


Many of us have said it over and over and over again.

Act as if you are contagious. Save others.

Extra bonus: you might also be protecting yourself.

My friend who had a (in the statistics ) very very mild case tells us all the time: Trust me, you don't want it. Trust me you don't.
 

OoohShiny

Ideal_Rock
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Apr 25, 2014
Messages
8,007
NY statistics.


Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.05.24 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.05.50 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.05.44 AM.png


Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.06.29 AM.png

"The majority of the state's cases are in New York City, but the downstate suburbs are also major contributors to the total. Positive cases track only people with a positive COVID test result- because testing has been limited, the number of people who have actually been infected with COVID is much higher- about 10 times the positive cases, according to New York State's antibody screenings- on 5/2/20, they registered 20% of the sampled population was positive in NYC and 12% was positive in New York State. We do not yet know if a positive antibodies test signals that a person has become immune to COVID."


Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.07.08 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.08.05 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.07.58 AM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.07.52 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-10-02 at 7.07.40 AM.png
Excellent graphs, thanks for posting them! :))

It looks like it has now reached the stage that it's going to rumble on at low levels in the background, in term of serious infections and deaths, which is not unlike other respiratory illnesses, AIUI.

Whether it will be a seasonal illness, like flu, should become clear as the winter months progress, but I have a feeling that this year we will have already seen those vulnerable to it being lost, so I expect this winter to not really show any major mortality increase.
 

ItsMainelyYou

Brilliant_Rock
Joined
Jun 27, 2014
Messages
877
someone much wiser than me once said (and I likely paraphrase), a single death is a tragedy, a thousand deaths is a statistic.
Brutal, more than wise.
That was Joseph Stalin, the dictator. He was talking about callousness in and of death and that in huge numbers the mind will turn from the enormity to ignore it's larger horror to try to survive. And he used that.
Stalin's regime killed over 40 million.
Fatalism is what has killed 211,000 thousand in my country. Covid will kill many more.
 

luv2sparkle

Ideal_Rock
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7,788
I didn't read all the responses, but would like to add one thing. People at Havasu act like idiots. I wouldn't want any of my kids to go with someone other than their family. I wouldn't trust them. I let my daughter go once with parents that I thought shared the same values as we did, and it was a disaster. I won't go into all the details but I learned a big lesson with that one. Usually, your gut instinct is best. If everything went well it would be no big deal, but if it didn't you would always second guess yourself that your first instinct was a no.
The amount of accidents at the river from intoxicated people is mind boggling. Mix that with covid and there could be some very real consequences.
 

missy

Super_Ideal_Rock
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Jun 8, 2008
Messages
40,547
Excellent graphs, thanks for posting them! :))

It looks like it has now reached the stage that it's going to rumble on at low levels in the background, in term of serious infections and deaths, which is not unlike other respiratory illnesses, AIUI.

Whether it will be a seasonal illness, like flu, should become clear as the winter months progress, but I have a feeling that this year we will have already seen those vulnerable to it being lost, so I expect this winter to not really show any major mortality increase.
I hope you are right @OoohShiny. More than anything I want you to be right about this.
 
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