i don''t see anything wrong with housing price going down...

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 3/3/2009 7:35:55 PM
Author: Mara
I agree, Beacon, that it''s particularly local. Sacramento and other infield areas were showing depleted values and stagnation years ago, no jobs, lots of land and tract housing?

But I am in an area where things have always moved fast...the heart of the Silicon Valley in the South Bay area. There are extreme ups and downs. Plus some towns just hold their value better than others, like Cupertino for example where the school districts are extremely coveted. They have only dropped about 10%. The area where we bought has dropped about 10%. But some other less desirable areas have dropped a far more significant amount than that.

To underscore how local it is, while some areas languish with properties on the market for 120+ days...we have seen numerous properties that are on the market for 12 days with multiple offers on them. These are turnkey properties under a million dollars in desirable South Bay areas.

California dreamin''. Honestly, because of THAT very thing...I think that this area in, particular, will recover sooner than many other areas. People are always coming into the tech-heavy areas looking for work and therefore housing. Maybe I am an optimist, but only time will tell. Speculation IS fun though.

your area strived during the high tech boom like NYC strived during the financial boom,but now companies like Intel are handing out pink slips and many of the NYC financial institutions had gone under. look what has happen to the RE market in NYC lately.

 

[Mara]

Oh I agree icekid. I often tell my parents they did me a disservice by having me and raising me in such an expensive, overvalued place. The salaries are not relative to cost of living by any stretch. It gives one a skewed perspective when you are raised in that type of environment. Greg came here 10 years ago and paid $2k rent for a 1 bedroom 'luxury' apt that had ducks living in the pool. Ten years ago!

DF...big companies here handing out pink slips is nothing new. Think back to 2000 when the bubble started to burst. I knew far more people then who lost their jobs than I do right now. I stayed afloat by consulting for 1.5 years. Maybe because I recall that period so well, what is happening now doesn't seem so crazy. Again...this place is cyclical.

 

[Beacon]

Agree w/ Mara on this point. I live on the SF peninsula, nearby Oracle, Seibel, Gilead Sciences, Visa. Very near my home. There is major industry here and it is diversified. But in 2000 we had an absolute meltdown. I recall CEO of Cisco saying that 25% of his customers went bankrupt. Companies were closing left and right and all their earthly possessions were being auctioned off. I remember seeing the auction listings come through the fax - so much brand new computer stuff for resale. Many people were laid off.

Lease rates plummeted and layoffs were legion. I thought for sure real estate prices would tumble. But they did not. What happened then was that interest rates began to drop like a stone (greenspan!). People who cashed out of the stock options (those who were lucky) bought properties. Rather than falling, prices rose. I was very surprised!

This spin is different though. We''ll see the outcome but I think we are in for a different scenario.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 3/3/2009 9:44:37 PM
Author: Beacon
Agree w/ Mara on this point. I live on the SF peninsula, nearby Oracle, Seibel, Gilead Sciences, Visa. Very near my home. There is major industry here and it is diversified. But in 2000 we had an absolute meltdown. I recall CEO of Cisco saying that 25% of his customers went bankrupt. Companies were closing left and right and all their earthly possessions were being auctioned off. I remember seeing the auction listings come through the fax - so much brand new computer stuff for resale. Many people were laid off.

Lease rates plummeted and layoffs were legion. I thought for sure real estate prices would tumble. But they did not. What happened then was that interest rates began to drop like a stone (greenspan!). People who cashed out of the stock options (those who were lucky) bought properties. Rather than falling, prices rose. I was very surprised!

This spin is different though. We''ll see the outcome but I think we are in for a different scenario.

the next big shoe to drop...big default on commercial property loans.

 

[TravelingGal]

I think the key is we''ve never really seen anything like this particular housing bubble...hard to say how it will turn out.

I''m no expert on silicon valley, except a lot of my industry is there. A lot probably bought those million dollar homes but I can tell you that a lot of people really can''t afford those homes if money becomes tighter. Younger people have this illusion that the good times will never end, or that things won''t happen to them. They do, but they aren''t prepared for it.

Mara, as I said, prices may only fall 10%, but my guess is those home in nice areas with great school districts are pricey to begin with. So while it doesn''t sound as bad as losing 50% on a 200K home, 10% on a million dollar home is still 100K. And falling. People are going to start walking, because there will be many like PP who do the math and believe it does not make any business sense to stay in the home.

And for those area that are depreciating quickly? Well, those people start to pinch pennies. Retailers like circuit city shut down. That is a giant hole for many vendors and is a huge hit. Budgets are cut and when that doesn''t work, people get cut. And many of those people in my industry live in Silicon Valley.

Here''s something from a blog that I''ve been reading for awhile - this guy posts a blog to my area. But this pertains to the house market in general the cycles it goes through. I''ve been watching the market since the "euphoria" stage and sure enough, we are slowly going through all the stages. Capitulation is where we lose the most, and that''s just beginning....


1. Optimism
2. Excitement
3. Thrill
4. Euphoria (market price peak) Peaked in late 2005/early 2006
5. Anxiety (I''m a long term investor, not a speculator. Lasted ~10 months)
6. Denial (Reached in October of 2006 until mid-May of 2007, ~8 months)
7. Fear (Reached in mid-May of 2007 to mid/late February 2008, ~9 months).
8. Desperation: since mid/late February 2008 to late September 2008 (~8 months)
9. ****Panic*****: Current state, started Late September 2008.
10 Capitulation: Spring 2009 through the winter of 2009. Yes, basically 2009!
11 Despondency (start of market price bottom) Not before winter 2009. Possibly as late as end 2010. Much more uncertainty here.
12 Depression (end of market price bottom) Not over before summer 2011, probably later. It could be as late as 2014. Don''t let anyone BS you into buying soon. There will be a long market bottom.
13 Hope (hey, this investment has picked up off its bottom)
14 Relief (The worst is over...) about 2017
15 Optimism (cycle starts again)

 

[Mara]

I heard somewhere once that the reason that traffic jams occur is because of one person starting to go slowly in the wrong lane. They hold up a few people, who start to go more slowly, and in turn hold up a few more people. People all start to go more slowly out of caution..what's going on? Is there an accident? He's going slowly, I will as well. The clump of people grows and grows until you have a big long snaking line of cars barely crawling down a big freeway.

We have lots of traffic here in the Bay Area. Sometimes I sit in it wondering who the dodo was who started the problem. Esp when there is no 'reason' for the traffic like an accident.

I actually see what is going on as something similar. Not that it's related to one person, but more like that social group mentality. I know so many people who do not need to pinch pennies or watch what they spend. They have good jobs with companies that are doing well (they do still exist!), they have money in the bank, they have houses in the black. But they start to watch prices. They eat out less. Why? Because everything seems so bad, so it must be really bad, which means I should be really careful right??

Not that I have a problem with caution. We're saving more and being more cautious too. But, people don't see that THEY have just as much ability to help fix the economy as a bailout plan. Spend more, fear less.

Things always turn around...you just have to think long-term. If you are not close to retirement, then is it that dire if your house is in the red, or your 401k is in the hole this year??? Who knows what is going to happen in 5/10/30 years. Again, no one does. Why not think more positively? Everyone is just so bleak.

TGal, that blog is probably interesting to read but that dude does not know any better than anyone else what is really going to happen. As has already been said, this is unlike anything previously. But people read his blog and probably go OMG yes I have to be cautious...I can't spend, I have to keep saving, nope it's not the time to buy, etc. Perpetuating the cycle. I flat out do not believe that the cycle will start again in 2017. Way too long.

Also in terms of it being $1m and losing 10% and it being a lot. Yes, it is a lot. But I would be surprised if we see a ton of people walking away from their homes in this area after losing just 10%. That is easily replaceable within 10 years in a desirable area..and yes that is the key 'desirable area'.

I just flat out don't believe things are going to be so dire for so long, in this area. Maybe I'm wrong. But even if I am... it doesn't matter too much right now. I am a FAR ways away from retirement, my 401k and stock has years to fix itself. We can stay in this new house for up to 10 years thanks to the excellent elementary school nearby...after that we'd have to move or put our potential kid in private school as the middle is not so fab. But again in 10 years? Who knows what is going to happen! Should I stress out about it now?

RE is a good investment if you time it correctly. Quite simply, most people don't.

 

[TravelingGal]

Date: 3/3/2009 10:40:32 PM
Author: Mara
I heard somewhere once that the reason that traffic jams occur is because of one person starting to go slowly in the wrong lane. They hold up a few people, who start to go more slowly, and in turn hold up a few more people. People all start to go more slowly out of caution..what''s going on? Is there an accident? He''s going slowly, I will as well. The clump of people grows and grows until you have a big long snaking line of cars barely crawling down a big freeway.

We have lots of traffic here in the Bay Area. Sometimes I sit in it wondering who the dodo was who started the problem. Esp when there is no ''reason'' for the traffic like an accident.

I actually see what is going on as something similar. Not that it''s related to one person, but more like that social group mentality. I know so many people who do not need to pinch pennies or watch what they spend. They have good jobs with companies that are doing well (they do still exist!), they have money in the bank, they have houses in the black. But they start to watch prices. They eat out less. Why? Because everything seems so bad, so it must be really bad, which means I should be really careful right??

Not that I have a problem with caution. We''re saving more and being more cautious too. But, people don''t see that THEY have just as much ability to help fix the economy as a bailout plan. Spend more, fear less.

Things always turn around...you just have to think long-term. If you are not close to retirement, then is it that dire if your house is in the red, or your 401k is in the hole this year??? Who knows what is going to happen in 5/10/30 years. Again, no one does. Why not think more positively? Everyone is just so bleak.

TGal, that blog is probably interesting to read but that dude does not know any better than anyone else what is really going to happen. As has already been said, this is unlike anything previously. But people read his blog and probably go OMG yes I have to be cautious...I can''t spend, I have to keep saving, nope it''s not the time to buy, etc. Perpetuating the cycle. I flat out do not believe that the cycle will start again in 2017. Way too long.

Also in terms of it being $1m and losing 10% and it being a lot. Yes, it is a lot. But I would be surprised if we see a ton of people walking away from their homes in this area after losing just 10%. That is easily replaceable within 10 years in a desirable area..and yes that is the key ''desirable area''.

I just flat out don''t believe things are going to be so dire for so long, in this area. Maybe I''m wrong. But even if I am... it doesn''t matter too much right now. I am a FAR ways away from retirement, my 401k and stock has years to fix itself. We can stay in this new house for up to 10 years thanks to the excellent elementary school nearby...after that we''d have to move or put our potential kid in private school as the middle is not so fab. But again in 10 years? Who knows what is going to happen! Should I stress out about it now?

RE is a good investment if you time it correctly. Quite simply, most people don''t.

I agree that the blog guy doesn''t know what is going to happen..I was referring more to the cycle, which I think is true. WHEN all those things happen is anyone''s guess and there definitely is a difference within local pockets.

I''ve never been particularly bleak about the economy. We''re not doing anything too different now...but we''ve always been on the cautious side of things (savers vs spenders). But if I want to spend, that''s exactly what I''ll do! However I have always though the housing prices got to insane and STUPID levels. So yeah, I''ve been pessimistic and did say we were going to see something pretty nasty happen. It''s just by the numbers. People making 40K a year can''t afford 400K homes. People who make 100K a year can''t afford million dollar ones Yet that''s exactly what happened.

But Mara..the problem is with the "positive" thinking thing is that yes, YOU and I can ride this out. There are many, many Americans who are not young and are in full panic mode. Their retirement accounts have been raped and things are looking scary for them.

10 years is an eyeblink. Yes, I don''t know what is going to happen then. But I don''t plan for 10 years out when buying a home. I plan for a lifetime. But I''m the type of person who will never strike it rich...I''m too cautious.

I think I read somewhere on PS that you bought the other house without selling your current? Your townhouse was really great so I hope it sells quick, I really do. You''re a braver woman than I and the fact that you''ve done so shows that you''re putting your money where your mouth is.

 

[purrfectpear]

Trends At a Glance Jan 2009 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $1,372,500 $1,365,000 (+0.5%) $1,512,500 (-9.3%)
Average Price $1,552,580 $1,429,360 (+8.6%) $2,297,750 (-32.4%)
Sale vs. List Price 95.2% 99.6% (-4.4%) 98.8% (-3.6%)
Days on Market 44 36 28


Stats for Palo Alto. Looks like the high end took a bad hit.

 

[TravelingGal]

Date: 3/3/2009 7:35:55 PM
Author: Mara
I agree, Beacon, that it''s particularly local. Sacramento and other infield areas were showing depleted values and stagnation years ago, no jobs, lots of land and tract housing?

But I am in an area where things have always moved fast...the heart of the Silicon Valley in the South Bay area. There are extreme ups and downs. Plus some towns just hold their value better than others, like Cupertino for example where the school districts are extremely coveted. They have only dropped about 10%. The area where we bought has dropped about 10%. But some other less desirable areas have dropped a far more significant amount than that.

To underscore how local it is, while some areas languish with properties on the market for 120+ days...we have seen numerous properties that are on the market for 12 days with multiple offers on them. These are turnkey properties under a million dollars in desirable South Bay areas.

California dreamin''. Honestly, because of THAT very thing...I think that this area in, particular, will recover sooner than many other areas. People are always coming into the tech-heavy areas looking for work and therefore housing. Maybe I am an optimist, but only time will tell. Speculation IS fun though.

California is experiencing more people going out than in (if you don''t count illegals). The people coming IN to look for jobs in Silicon Valley can''t afford the houses there, and there have been stories that people are turning down jobs because when they factor in cost of living, it makes no sense to move. The SF/SJ area is one area that is more expensive than Los Angeles. As a current californian, *I* can''t even afford to live there!!

California dreamin is just that. Dreaming. In reality, California is in deep sh*t, and that''s just from looking at the state budget.

 

[Mara]

Date: 3/3/2009 11:05:57 PM
Author: purrfectpear
Trends At a Glance Jan 2009 Previous Month Year-over Year

Median Price $1,372,500 $1,365,000 (+0.5%) $1,512,500 (-9.3%)

Average Price $1,552,580 $1,429,360 (+8.6%) $2,297,750 (-32.4%)

Sale vs. List Price 95.2% 99.6% (-4.4%) 98.8% (-3.6%)

Days on Market 44 36 28



Stats for Palo Alto. Looks like the high end took a bad hit.

Yep over $1m is definitely struggling. But PA cannot just be classified as a 'high end' area. There is ghetto East Palo Alto, which is still PA, and it is taking a HUGE hit right now. Also their schools are not that great compared to some other as-expensive areas. Los Gatos is another area that is 'high-end' that is taking a bit of a hit. Again, schools not as good as Monte Sereno or Cupertino to justify that $1m+ price tag.

Our realtors are showing houses like crazy to people who are ready to buy. They are all looking under a million and they are picky about what and where they want to be.

 

[TravelingGal]

Any house which is well priced and turnkey in this market should sell - because there are people who do have to buy (or they think they do).

My friend lives in Seattle...a market that hasn''t been hit as hard as ours. They bought their house 3 years ago and opted to keep their other house because (by their admission) of greed. They had a lease to own person they could have made more money from (or so they thought) so they turned down a flat out offer on their home. 2.5 years later the leaser bailed, and they found themselves paying double mortgage for 6 months before finally finding a renter. It wasn''t that housing prices are continually tanking down there, but that people just aren''t buying right now. They are pretty well off, but it was a huge blow and very scary for them.

 

[TravelingGal]

Date: 3/3/2009 11:17:07 PM
Author: Mara


Yep over $1m is definitely struggling. But PA cannot just be classified as a ''high end'' area. There is ghetto East Palo Alto, which is still PA, and it is taking a HUGE hit right now. Also their schools are not that great compared to some other as-expensive areas. Los Gatos is another area that is ''high-end'' that is taking a bit of a hit. Again, schools not as good as Monte Sereno or Cupertino to justify that $1m+ price tag.

Our realtors are showing houses like crazy to people who are ready to buy. They are all looking under a million and they are picky about what and where they want to be.

In the South Bay area of SoCal, there are many many people wanting to buy, but are sitting on the sidelines. Still, realtors are SHOWING houses like crazy, but are not closing like crazy. This is per the one I''ve been working with. She''s shown me three houses too!

 

[Mara]

te:[/b] 3/3/2009 11:23:27 PM
Author: TravelingGal

Our realtors are showing houses like crazy to people who are ready to buy. They are all looking under a million and they are picky about what and where they want to be.

In the South Bay area of SoCal, there are many many people wanting to buy, but are sitting on the sidelines. Still, realtors are SHOWING houses like crazy, but are not closing like crazy. This is per the one I've been working with. She's shown me three houses too![/quote]

I think he closed 4 or 5 properties last month. He just sold a $4m house to the #3 guy at eBay or something crazy. I love hearing his stories. Also, as I think I said on a previous page, our Wells Fargo guy who we stay in touch with told us that in Jan they had some ridiculous # of new loans to process. They are SO busy....my friend had to wait a week for a rep to call her back on a refi.

Anyway, it can be point for point rebuttal on what the *real* state of the market is, but I watch the market closely for our area. It is localized in terms of how bad it is. Down to the city and even within a city, there are 'micro climates' of pockets.

Are people cautious? Yep! Are people unsure? Yep! My boss is looking at buying a 2nd property in SF and holding her first for a rental because prices are pretty good. But she's not sure what she wants to do.

I said this in December to Greg, but it's a good time for people who are ready. People who are sitting on cash and have been waiting. Sure people can wait for another 10% less or whatever, but if you plan to be in the house for a long-term...to me it will all even out in the end. Esp if people intend to stay in one place, you just keep rolling it over into bigger/more expensive properties. You know bigger is better here in the BayArea.

We did not buy this new property because it was the 'best' investment value. If we wanted to make lots of cash, we could have bought this ugly house in Los Gatos that had a great view of the mountains but was retro 70's on a huge lot. We wanted something that was fairly comparable to our last place, with land, with a school district that was valued and a house that was turnkey. We will be lucky to see a higher value on this place in 10 years. It was not a foreclosure or a short sale, nor did we get a FABULOUS deal on it. There were multiple offers. But if it holds value over that time and our non-existent kid can go to a good elementary and we don't have to pay private, we're up in the long-term. Plus we like it, its our new home.

TG..yes we have both properties now, talk about stress. But this new house was in the right place at the right time. We know we can rent the TH out, rentals in our area are going very fast right now at high prices, but we'd rather just take the gain. We have had some serious interest, but as you said, interest is interest. Show me the money.

Oh and you are so right about if you have skin in the game you want things to hold. But I know if we were in your shoes, we'd be believing that it will keep dropping too. It's probably somewhere in the middle.

 

[TravelingGal]

TG..yes we have both properties now, talk about stress. But this new house was in the right place at the right time. We know we can rent the TH out, rentals in our area are going very fast right now at high prices, but we''d rather just take the gain. We have had some serious interest, but as you said, interest is interest. Show me the money.

Oh and you are so right about if you have skin in the game you want things to hold. But I know if we were in your shoes, we''d be believing that it will keep dropping too. It''s probably somewhere in the middle.



Yup mara, that I totally agree with. I''m willing to bet our deposit savings that it will continue to go down at least through the middle of next year. how much? No one knows.

The RE market is of interest to me because obviously, we are looking. If I find something that is in a great location, in the school district we want and big enough for our needs, we''d buy at some point this year. I don''t need to buy at market bottom. I need to find a house I can live in at a price we can afford.

That''s the bottom line.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 3/3/2009 9:20:23 PM
Author: Mara
DF...big companies here handing out pink slips is nothing new. Think back to 2000 when the bubble started to burst. I knew far more people then who lost their jobs than I do right now. I stayed afloat by consulting for 1.5 years. Maybe because I recall that period so well, what is happening now doesn''t seem so crazy. Again...this place is cyclical.

Mara
this time is a different animal,back then our nation weren''t losing 500K jobs per month.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 3/3/2009 10:18:27 PM
Author: TravelingGal

1. Optimism
2. Excitement
3. Thrill
4. Euphoria (market price peak) Peaked in late 2005/early 2006
5. Anxiety (I''m a long term investor, not a speculator. Lasted ~10 months)
6. Denial (Reached in October of 2006 until mid-May of 2007, ~8 months)
7. Fear (Reached in mid-May of 2007 to mid/late February 2008, ~9 months).
8. Desperation: since mid/late February 2008 to late September 2008 (~8 months)
9. ****Panic*****: Current state, started Late September 2008.
10 Capitulation: Spring 2009 through the winter of 2009. Yes, basically 2009!
11 Despondency (start of market price bottom) Not before winter 2009. Possibly as late as end 2010. Much more uncertainty here.
12 Depression (end of market price bottom) Not over before summer 2011, probably later. It could be as late as 2014. Don''t let anyone BS you into buying soon. There will be a long market bottom.
13 Hope (hey, this investment has picked up off its bottom)
14 Relief (The worst is over...) about 2017
15 Optimism (cycle starts again)

yes,a very looooooooooong time.

 

[strmrdr]

As long as the economy sheds jobs the down slide is going to continue.
Good paying secure jobs is the only way out of this mess.

 

[Harriet]

Date: 3/4/2009 2:24:11 AM
Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 3/3/2009 9:20:23 PM
Author: Mara
DF...big companies here handing out pink slips is nothing new. Think back to 2000 when the bubble started to burst. I knew far more people then who lost their jobs than I do right now. I stayed afloat by consulting for 1.5 years. Maybe because I recall that period so well, what is happening now doesn''t seem so crazy. Again...this place is cyclical.

Mara
this time is a different animal,back then our nation weren''t losing 500K jobs per month.

Unfortunately, Dancing Fire is right.

 

[Beacon]

The SF Bay area is not suffering job loss nearly as much as we did in 2000. We have not gone there yet.

However, here is what is different: after the breakdown in 2000, interest rates began to plunge and this supported the housing market. Alot of people had made money in tech stocks even though they were momentarily unemployed, so they had cash to work with.

This time, interest rates are already on the very bottom and people have not made money on their options in years. The low interest rates are all that is holding house prices intact. Low rates are not making prices go higher, prices are still falling.

If interest rates go up, and they certainly could, then what? Big trouble, that''s what.

 

[fleur-de-lis]

Date: 3/4/2009 1:05:00 PM
Author: Harriet

Date: 3/4/2009 2:24:11 AM

Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 3/3/2009 9:20:23 PM

Author: Mara

DF...big companies here handing out pink slips is nothing new. Think back to 2000 when the bubble started to burst. I knew far more people then who lost their jobs than I do right now. I stayed afloat by consulting for 1.5 years. Maybe because I recall that period so well, what is happening now doesn''t seem so crazy. Again...this place is cyclical.

Mara

this time is a different animal,back then our nation weren''t losing 500K jobs per month.

Unfortunately, Dancing Fire is right.

I think the reference was to the incredible job losses in the Bay Area following the tech bubble burst in 2000/2001; in this single metropolitan area over 340,000 jobs vanished, which represented over 9.2% of ALL jobs in the area. (Source: SF Federal Reserve Bank report ) Locally, it was a much greater bloodbath then than it is now (at least so far).

 

[Mara]

Date: 3/4/2009 1:29:45 PM
Author: fleur-de-lis

Date: 3/4/2009 1:05:00 PM

Author: Harriet

Date: 3/4/2009 2:24:11 AM


Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 3/3/2009 9:20:23 PM


Author: Mara


DF...big companies here handing out pink slips is nothing new. Think back to 2000 when the bubble started to burst. I knew far more people then who lost their jobs than I do right now. I stayed afloat by consulting for 1.5 years. Maybe because I recall that period so well, what is happening now doesn't seem so crazy. Again...this place is cyclical.

Mara


this time is a different animal,back then our nation weren't losing 500K jobs per month.

Unfortunately, Dancing Fire is right.

I think the reference was to the incredible job losses in the Bay Area following the tech bubble burst in 2000/2001; in this single metropolitan area over 340,000 jobs vanished, which represented over 9.2% of ALL jobs in the area. (Source: SF Federal Reserve Bank report ) Locally, it was a much greater bloodbath then than it is now (at least so far).

Yes, exactly. It was absolutely horrible in 2000. I don't know 1/3 as many people out of work as I did then. (knock on wood!) We have a fair amount of large companies here that are still doing very well, surprisingly enough. I know many less startups are folding than in 2000. Maybe it's delayed reaction, not sure. Could be that what happened then prepped more companies on how to deal with it now. I still remember driving past rows and rows of empty buildings with lease signs on them for 2-3 years back then.

 

[Linda W]

OFF topic and I apologize,


MARA: Did you post pictures of your new house???????


Linda

 

[ksinger]

Try this one on for size to see just where the losses are greatest and what sectors have been hit hardest. A good map is included.

Job Losses Show Breadth of Recession

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 3/4/2009 2:19:13 PM
Author: Mara


Yes, exactly. It was absolutely horrible in 2000. I don''t know 1/3 as many people out of work as I did then. (knock on wood!) We have a fair amount of large companies here that are still doing very well, surprisingly enough. I know many less startups are folding than in 2000. Maybe it''s delayed reaction, not sure. Could be that what happened then prepped more companies on how to deal with it now. I still remember driving past rows and rows of empty buildings with lease signs on them for 2-3 years back then.

Mara
i don''t understand why would you think your area is immuned from this worldwide recession?

if companies like Microsoft and Intel are laying off workers can other high tech Co''s be far behind?

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 3/3/2009 11:08:41 PM
Author: TravelingGal

Date: 3/3/2009 7:35:55 PM
Author: Mara
I agree, Beacon, that it''s particularly local. Sacramento and other infield areas were showing depleted values and stagnation years ago, no jobs, lots of land and tract housing?

But I am in an area where things have always moved fast...the heart of the Silicon Valley in the South Bay area. There are extreme ups and downs. Plus some towns just hold their value better than others, like Cupertino for example where the school districts are extremely coveted. They have only dropped about 10%. The area where we bought has dropped about 10%. But some other less desirable areas have dropped a far more significant amount than that.

To underscore how local it is, while some areas languish with properties on the market for 120+ days...we have seen numerous properties that are on the market for 12 days with multiple offers on them. These are turnkey properties under a million dollars in desirable South Bay areas.

California dreamin''. Honestly, because of THAT very thing...I think that this area in, particular, will recover sooner than many other areas. People are always coming into the tech-heavy areas looking for work and therefore housing. Maybe I am an optimist, but only time will tell. Speculation IS fun though.

California is experiencing more people going out than in (if you don''t count illegals). The people coming IN to look for jobs in Silicon Valley can''t afford the houses there, and there have been stories that people are turning down jobs because when they factor in cost of living, it makes no sense to move. The SF/SJ area is one area that is more expensive than Los Angeles. As a current californian, *I* can''t even afford to live there!!

California dreamin is just that. Dreaming. In reality, California is in deep sh*t, and that''s just from looking at the state budget.

yes we are.unemployment in Ca is at 9.3% and rising.

 

[Mara]

Ahhh....no area is 'immune'.

Things in 2000 here were worse from a job perspective, that is a fact. Layoffs are NOT rare around here. Based on that map that ksinger posted, Santa Clara County is not that bad at 7%.

Frankly, some companies here are using the economy as an excuse to 'trim the fat'...even if they don't need to from a revenue perspective.

 

[tradergirl]

Okay, see what you think of this one:

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2009/03/04/loan_modifications/

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 3/4/2009 8:09:37 PM
Author: Mara
Ahhh....no area is ''immune''.

Things in 2000 here were worse from a job perspective, that is a fact. Layoffs are NOT rare around here. Based on that map that ksinger posted, Santa Clara County is not that bad at 7%.

Frankly, some companies here are using the economy as an excuse to ''trim the fat''...even if they don''t need to from a revenue perspective.

remember what i said a few yrs ago ?? i said..."within the next few yrs we''ll see the biggest mortgage default in history ". at the time you thought i was full of BS and here we are...a few yrs later.

give me credit where credit is due.

 

[Allisonfaye]

Date: 2/26/2009 8:02:57 PM
Author: purrfectpear
I guess I have situational morals. If it wasn''t legal I wouldn''t be doing it. I didn''t even know it was an option until the media and the internet kept bleating about it. Once I researched it and realized there were no tax implications, no further credit hounding, just a one time hit to the report it made sense in my case. I have no need for credit. My car is paid for. If I need another I can pay cash. I don''t plan on purchasing another home since rents are only going down, and when I do buy I''ll probably pay cash or at least 75% cash for the next home.

I talked to my ultra, ultra conservative parents about it last summer expecting them to be horrifed and ready with a responsibility pitch. To my shock they said it made perfect sense to them. These are people who are so right wing Republican that they scare me

I''m just one of hundreds of thousands in California. You''re lost in the herd. Landlords could care less since I can give them any deposit they ask for. Cash talks.

Personally I think the non-recourse states probably should rewrite their rules. Since they didn''t I''m availing myself. The lender is getting back exactly what they asked for in collateral. Maybe they should have considered the bubble when they handpicked their appraisers

I imagine they knew a lot more about the housing market then I did. I actually didn''t know that houses could go backwards like that. I thought they''d plateau and I would cease appreciating. Now I know better. So do the lenders, huh.

So where do you go when you get kicked out?

 

[purrfectpear]

Date: 3/5/2009 5:09:01 PM
Author: Allisonfaye

So where do you go when you get kicked out?

Pretty much any place I want to. Why, are you inviting me over?

FWIW, you don''t get "kicked out". That''s media crap you see where people ignored all the signs praying for a miracle. You will get ample notice. The Sheriff''s office will post a notice of sale. In California, from the notice you have 31 days until the auction. Then assuming it actually sells to a new bidder, you would get 30 days notice to vacate after the auction. If you really didn''t feel like leaving, you could wait for a formal eviction which would start after the 30 days, and give you another 21 days before they could legally change the locks.

I''m simply waiting for the sale, and then I''m moving into a nice apartment complex.