i don''t see anything wrong with housing price going down...

[Dancing Fire]

a young couple can now buy a nice home for less money. my daughter''s generation maybe able to afford a house now.

 

[HollyS]

Date: 2/20/2009 12:52:31 PM
Author:Dancing Fire
a young couple can now buy a nice home for less money. my daughter''s generation maybe able to afford a house now.

While I''ve had the same thought, I also remember telling my dad that he should not sell (back at the sky-high prices) just because he was getting old. EVERY economist, every money guru (Suzi Orman) said that real estate is where you want your money to be. Yeah, well . . . . now I can see not only my 401K becoming a 4.01K, my ''inheritance'' is losing value moment by moment. I hope Dad''s got ten more healthy years in him! Maybe there will be an upswing by then.

 

[DivaDiamond007]

Date: 2/20/2009 12:52:31 PM
Author:Dancing Fire
a young couple can now buy a nice home for less money. my daughter's generation maybe able to afford a house now.

You mean the ones that still have decent paying jobs, right DF?

I think housing prices in my area are still outpacing income by far, even with values going down seemingly by the day. By this I mean that the "average" income will not buy you the "average" house.



edited for spelling

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 2/20/2009 9:20:18 PM
Author: DivaDiamond007

Date: 2/20/2009 12:52:31 PM
Author:Dancing Fire
a young couple can now buy a nice home for less money. my daughter''s generation maybe able to afford a house now.

You mean the ones that still have decent paying jobs, right DF?

I think housing prices in my area are still outpacing income by far, even with values going down seemingly by the day. By this I mean that the ''average'' income will not buy you the ''average'' house.



edited for spelling

i know exactly what you are saying. the avg home in our area got up to near $400K in spring of 05.

 

[DiamanteBlu]

I am waiting patiently . . .

 

[Harriet]

Naughty girl! Actually, so are we.

 

[DiamanteBlu]

Date: 2/21/2009 8:23:13 PM
Author: Harriet
Naughty girl! Actually, so are we.

LOL!

 

[Harriet]

How much longer, you think?

 

[DiamanteBlu]

Dunno. I'm watching closely - in fact, we went out to look at properties on the seacoast here last weekend. Asking prices still seem too high.

I'm thinking that things will get interesting by the end of this year or beginning of next. I think prices have at least another 25% to go - that is if we do not have a total meltdown. Total meltdown is possible in which case all bets are off. I am working like a banshee to generate lots of cash flow in case things get really ugly. [Where's that vulture cartoon?].

I don't see a rebound in the forseeable future.

What's your thinking?

I found a site today that is good to use to track locally and by market segment: http://www.altosresearch.com . Click on "free reports" and you can get lots of info without subscribing.

ETA I expect to see different market behaviors and trends at different price points. We are looking in a category that traditionally does not see many buyers since we are looking at a part time residence for ourselves. We will pick up lower price point properties as the value becomes more interesting, both single family and multi-unit. Also, don't confine yourself to the US market. There will be many opportunities elsewhere, too.

 

[Harriet]

I''m not the finance half. The hubs is, and expects the bottom in one to two years. That is a generalisation across the country, of course. He anticipates a severe drop in the CT market. We''ll also be looking in Miami Beach. Unlike you, we''re not in the position to buy investment property yet.

 

[TravelingGal]

I''ve been watching since August 2005 and knew then it was going to get ugly. It''s still not ugly enough to buy. Average home in my area in 2005 was about 800K. It''s now in the 600''s. I need it to come down to low 5''s.

It annoys me when everyone wants to keep prices artificially inflated. Prices, at least in Socal, HAVE to come down. There is no way the average person/couple can afford the average home. Unless it comes down and people buy within their means, the problem will continue.

 

[Beacon]

This is the beauty of the free market.

I saw a show on TV featuring three young families in suburban Virginia. They were each in their early 20s and had purchased nice looking townhomes just recently at distress prices. One townhome had been 350K and they got it for 175K.

This is why America will recover. Those families no doubt bought with fully documented 30 year fix rate loans and in all probability will pay on time. This is the process and it is happening right now.

If their houses fall in price somewhat from here, so what? Each month they increase their equity via repayment, in time they will all make a profit on those homes.

As for picking bottoms in real estate, that is market by market and sometimes street by street. There will be no universal "bottom". Right now there is virtually no bid for property in places that used to be cornfields and now are full of homes surrounded by cornfields. However in tight markets with no more available land, in desireable locations, those prices will fall more slowly.

 

[deegee]

Housing prices in my area haven''t changed at all. Hubby and I were interested in a few houses in a certain neighborhood last August. They were vacant homes, where the owners had already purchased new homes and moved out. All 3 houses are still for sale, and have not been lowered at all. There are several new houses going up in my neighborhood, and they were sold before they were completed.

My area is kind of behind on everything else, so I guess the recession will hit us about the time everyone else is recovering!

 

[purrfectpear]

I predict we''ll bottom at 97'' or 98'' pricing. I think we have two more years to go (mid 2010). But I''m only going on gut instinct.

 

[Phoenix]

I''m another one that believes that property prices will not bottom until 2010. Unfortunate for us, we have 3 properties that have come off their highs (one in London, UK, which we would have gladly sold at the beginning of 2007, but which we haven''t been able to because of a sitting tenant

). In Singapore where we currently live, prices rocketed to historic highs (3-5 bedroom apartments/ houses were about USD 3-7m easily). Even now, with the recession, they''re still very high (I reckon they''ve come off some 30% those historic highs). Great if you have tons of moohlahs to buy, not so great if you don''t even have a job (Singaporeans are being laid off like there''s no tomorrow) or if you''re trying to offload your portfolio.

 

[Harriet]

Date: 2/22/2009 8:06:10 AM
Author: Phoenix
I''m another one that believes that property prices will not bottom until 2010. Unfortunate for us, we have 3 properties that have come off their highs (one in London, UK, which we would have gladly sold at the beginning of 2007, but which we haven''t been able to because of a sitting tenant

). In Singapore where we currently live, prices rocketed to historic highs (3-5 bedroom apartments/ houses were about USD 3-7m easily). Even now, with the recession, they''re still very high (I reckon they''ve come off some 30% those historic highs). Great if you have tons of moohlahs to buy, not so great if you don''t even have a job (Singaporeans are being laid off like there''s no tomorrow) or if you''re trying to offload your portfolio.

Don''t remind me. My parents bought their house at the peak.

 

[tradergirl]

Harriet, just because prices "bottom" if they do in a year or two doesn''t mean they''ll make a V shaped recovery. More like an L. IOW, you''ll still have plenty of time to shop. When you see magazine covers and "everyone" stays that real estate is a bad investment, that will be the time to buy. I''m in the same position. I refuse to pay these prices. We''d like to buy in Santa Fe.

http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/baseline-scenario-2909/

 

[zhuzhu]

One half of my brain wishes that we had waited for a couple more years to buy our house as we prob could save 10-15% (we bought our house in 200; the other half of my brain is loving the lifestyle associated with home ownership. With our own property we enjoy the landscaping, the designing of both inside and outside of our home, and we feel a great sense of pride for home ownership. It is ultimately a personal choice if financial gain outweighs the lifestyle of your choice. Even though I would not mind the savings associated with "market low", having a property to call your own has brought more joy than I had ever imagined when I was renting.

 

[Lulie]

Date: 2/20/2009 12:52:31 PM
Author:Dancing Fire
a young couple can now buy a nice home for less money. my daughter's generation maybe able to afford a house now.

Yes and No imho.....def buyers time [W$$ ] but for first timers, no loans avail for them unless they have 30-40% down payment and accepting 8.6% interest were we live. I'd wait 1.5 years [and save like mad] for this mess to clear up.

 

[Beacon]

Date: 2/22/2009 7:10:57 PM
Author: zhuzhu
One half of my brain wishes that we had waited for a couple more years to buy our house as we prob could save 10-15% (we bought our house in 200; the other half of my brain is loving the lifestyle associated with home ownership. With our own property we enjoy the landscaping, the designing of both inside and outside of our home, and we feel a great sense of pride for home ownership. It is ultimately a personal choice if financial gain outweighs the lifestyle of your choice. Even though I would not mind the savings associated with ''market low'', having a property to call your own has brought more joy than I had ever imagined when I was renting.

I think zhuzhu has a good point.

Many people think their homes are "investments". I always hear that "your home is the biggest investment you will make....." (and for me it sure is not).

Homes are where you live and how you live. Naturally you don''t want to buy at a bad price, but if you were only concerned with investment, there are probably better ideas than a house. After all house provides no income, it requires repairs, insurance, is subject to ruin by many causes and is the target of your state and local government in the form of property taxes. It''s an inflation hedge under normal financing conditions and so the prices go up over time, but it is not that great IMO.

So you can own your house for emotional/lifestyle reasons too.

 

[Clairitek]

Date: 2/22/2009 7:10:57 PM
Author: zhuzhu
One half of my brain wishes that we had waited for a couple more years to buy our house as we prob could save 10-15% (we bought our house in 200; the other half of my brain is loving the lifestyle associated with home ownership. With our own property we enjoy the landscaping, the designing of both inside and outside of our home, and we feel a great sense of pride for home ownership. It is ultimately a personal choice if financial gain outweighs the lifestyle of your choice. Even though I would not mind the savings associated with ''market low'', having a property to call your own has brought more joy than I had ever imagined when I was renting.

I seriously could have written this statement. I resent the fact that we will probably not make anything from our "investment" even if we wait 5 or so years to sell but I love the feeling of owning a home and even the work associated with it. It truly is a joy.

 

[Harriet]

Date: 2/22/2009 7:00:51 PM
Author: tradergirl
Harriet, just because prices 'bottom' if they do in a year or two doesn't mean they'll make a V shaped recovery. More like an L. IOW, you'll still have plenty of time to shop. When you see magazine covers and 'everyone' stays that real estate is a bad investment, that will be the time to buy. I'm in the same position. I refuse to pay these prices. We'd like to buy in Santa Fe.

http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/baseline-scenario-2909/

Thanks. Keep me posted please.

Zhuzhu,
Thanks for a different perspective.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 2/22/2009 6:12:28 AM
Author: purrfectpear
I predict we'll bottom at 97' or 98' pricing. I think we have two more years to go (mid 2010). But I'm only going on gut instinct.

i agree, cuz that's when the last group of these ARM buyers will feel the pain.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 2/22/2009 7:00:51 PM
Author: tradergirl
Harriet, just because prices ''bottom'' if they do in a year or two doesn''t mean they''ll make a V shaped recovery. More like an L. IOW, you''ll still have plenty of time to shop. When you see magazine covers and ''everyone'' stays that real estate is a bad investment, that will be the time to buy. I''m in the same position. I refuse to pay these prices. We''d like to buy in Santa Fe.

http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/baseline-scenario-2909/

yep,never fails.

 

[Beacon]

Date: 2/23/2009 12:51:25 AM
Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 2/22/2009 6:12:28 AM
Author: purrfectpear
I predict we''ll bottom at 97'' or 98'' pricing. I think we have two more years to go (mid 2010). But I''m only going on gut instinct.

i agree, cuz that''s when the last group of these ARM buyers will feel the pain.

I dunno, I wish I had an ARM now. Used to have one but refi''d to a fixed. If I had an ARM my payment would be sooo low.

Now I am refiing it again. Oi. BTW, the process Wells Fargo has for the refi is quite amazing. You apply on line, giving permission for them to pull your IRS transcripts (the fearful 4506 permission). If your FICO goes and your transcripts match your app you are auto approved and don''t need to give them much else. My LTV is under 50% so that is not a complication, but they still do an appraisal. Pretty neat, I think.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 2/23/2009 1:12:46 AM
Author: Beacon

Date: 2/23/2009 12:51:25 AM
Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 2/22/2009 6:12:28 AM
Author: purrfectpear
I predict we''ll bottom at 97'' or 98'' pricing. I think we have two more years to go (mid 2010). But I''m only going on gut instinct.

i agree, cuz that''s when the last group of these ARM buyers will feel the pain.

I dunno, I wish I had an ARM now. Used to have one but refi''d to a fixed. If I had an ARM my payment would be sooo low.

Now I am refiing it again. Oi. BTW, the process Wells Fargo has for the refi is quite amazing. You apply on line, giving permission for them to pull your IRS transcripts (the fearful 4506 permission). If your FICO goes and your transcripts match your app you are auto approved and don''t need to give them much else. My LTV is under 50% so that is not a complication, but they still do an appraisal. Pretty neat, I think.

what i meant to say was....the last group of those sub prime junk loans.

 

[tradergirl]

Would it still be a "joy" to own the house if you or your husband lost your jobs and had to struggle to pay the mortgage or had to turn down a better job elsewhere because you are tied to it and can''t sell? That is the problem people have all over the country.

 

[Beacon]

That scenario can happen at anytime even in a decent economy so you better rent for the rest of your life!

 

[tradergirl]

Not true. In ''05 you''d have had buyers camped out on your doorstep bidding up your selling price.

Are you a realtor?

 

[TravelingGal]

Date: 2/23/2009 6:41:15 AM
Author: tradergirl
Would it still be a ''joy'' to own the house if you or your husband lost your jobs and had to struggle to pay the mortgage or had to turn down a better job elsewhere because you are tied to it and can''t sell? That is the problem people have all over the country.

I kind of have to agree with this. When you don''t have a house, you want the prices to drop drop drop, then of course once you buy, you hope and think it will only lose 10-15% more.

Would you love your house if it dropped 40%? If you knew that your money, if you had waited, would have bought you a bigger and better house in a better neighborhood? Not picking on anyone at all, btw...these are questions I am dealing with myself as we struggle to figure out if the joys of homeownership would outweigh waiting another year or two. So far, the waiting is winning.