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This post is long (my apologies but it is important) and contains a lot of ideas, that possibly could warrant an article. I however prefer to bring these points forward first, so that your feedback and reaction can influence the potential future article.
Introduction:
Regular posters on PS sometimes highlight how the industry ‘games’ certain grading systems, mostly cut-grading systems. What is this ‘gaming the system’ actually? Here are examples.
Example 1: The GIA cut-grading system
GIA introduced a cut-grading-system for rounds in 2006. It has five possible grades; Poor, Fair, Good, Very-Good & Excellent, with most cutters aiming for the Excellent-grade, if not the Very-Good grade.
According to GIA, the division into five grades is based upon the number of categories humans are able to clearly discern. Granted, this is a worthy explanation, but with basic studies which are partially flawed and the further simplification of converting a 3D item with 57+ measurements into a handful of averaged and rounded 2D data points for ease-of-repeatability (well-documented on Pricescope) the best one can say is that the system is not foolproof. I would say that the general sentiment on this forum is that an EX cut-grade by GIA is a nice start, but the stone needs to be further examined via HCA and further photographic evidence. So briefly, within the EX grade of GIA, there are still various levels of cut-quality that warrant further investigation.
With GIA being the foremost authority in lab-grading however, the GIA cut-grade is for most diamond cutters the final word. In essence, on the worldwide diamond-market, a potential premium exists for an EX grade, but often not for further refinement. It is thus logical that many diamond cutters will aim to obtain this EX grade if in any way possible, without paying attention to further refinement.
This logical and, in this case, that human reflex is aided by technology. The GIA system is very predictable and has been incorporated in all brands of diamond-planning technology. After scanning a rough stone, most factory systems will calculate the biggest stone one can obtain while staying inside a specific cut-grade; in this example GIA EX. For most rough stones the advice will be a combination of the deepest pavilion and crown angle combination. For the same diameter, this will yield the highest weight.
As a result, we see an oversupply of such "steep-deep" combos in GIA-EX. On PS, it is very well known that these generally are less nice, but on the worldwide diamond-market, there is no problem selling them... After all they have the coveted "GIA EX" grade. Given that higher yield out of the same rough, the seller also has room to supply them at slightly lower prices, which even enhances their appeal.
Here on PS, we often describe such stones as the result of ‘gaming the system’. We can probably argue whether that ‘gaming’ takes place with intent, but the fact is that it is sufficient for many cutters to produce the minimum-level of the GIA EX-grade. Considering this result; a majority of diamonds produced near the minimum-level of the grade, it can be questioned whether the resulting production is in line with GIA's original intent of creating a clearly discernable Excellent grade.
My conclusion is that the creation of the system has had a consequence which was not the intention of the creators of the system.
Example 2: The AGS cut-grading system
The above series-of-events was already observed on diamond-discussion forums in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, when assessing stones with the old version of the AGS Ideal grade. In the same way, AGS had a 2D cut-grade (like the current GIA system) which resulted in an overwhelming production of steep-deep AGS Ideals.
Probably this reality led the AGS to develop a new cut-grading system, introduced in 2005. According to AGS tradition, the system has 11 cut-grades, ranging from 10 to 0 (Ideal), but in practice, only the top Ideal-grade seriously has commercial appeal.
Because of the 3-dimensional nature of the new AGS system, it is a bit more difficult to understand and predict grades. But after time intelligent cutters have also found out where the minimum-levels of this Ideal-grade are. And once again, the logic of human nature leads to productions being targeted at this minimum-level.
At the same time, within the AGS Ideal grade, there are still various levels of performance. This is only natural, because the grade mainly depends upon an assessment of brightness only, with almost none of fire and absolutely none of scintillation. The same applies for GIA, by the way. Very often, AGS-Ideal is represented as an automatic H&A, which does not need to be the case. And even AGS accepts that there are still different levels within the top-grade, but prefers to describe that as differences in ‘taste’. And granted, further refining of the AGS-system would probably drive even more of their grading-business away to GIA (already a huge problem for AGSL) so I can fully understand their human reaction.
Halfway-conclusion
Grading-systems with a definite top-grade have an adverse effect. Supply will tend to concentrate on achieving the minimum-level of that top-grade, in the absence of a stimulus to do better than that. This can be described as ‘gaming the system,' as if there were malicious intent to deceive. I think that the phenomenon definitely exists, but I would attribute it to simple human logic, not evil or malice, which also makes it more difficult to combat.
Final question: Pricescope as a grading-system
When we observe our favorite website Pricescope, and especially the RockyTalky forum, it is a mini-market for diamonds; a market with its own unwritten rules and understandings. In this mini-market, the advice given on the forums can be regarded as a grading-system of its own.
Here, we do not have grades ranging from Poor to Excellent or 10 to 0, but we can roughly divide the advice in three categories:
- The lowest grade is that of 'Fail.' Do not buy this stone, we will present you with better and cheaper alternatives.
- The middle grade is that of ‘More info needed. Please check further, if possible in person’.
- The top-grade is ‘Buy’, ‘Yummy’, ‘Kewl’, ‘Go for It’
In this mini-market for diamonds, we have a limited number of specialized vendors, aiming specifically to sell via the forum. This may prove very beneficial for them because a sale to a satisfied PS-consumer can lead to positive bias and thus free publicity, even to non-Pricescopers.
But just like with other cut-grading systems, this has influenced the average supply. Reaching the top-grade of 'Buy' on PS is the goal so, logically, vendors need to figure out what the minimum-level of this grade is. And, since they are intelligent people, more and more have figured this out.
Given that we are describing human reactions to systems, it is logical to assume that, over-time, supply of diamonds on PS is increasing at or near the minimum-level of the Pricescope 'Buy' grade. And, indeed, we've seen more and more supply on PS relaxed in cut-quality to achieve the minimum-level of the Pricescope 'Buy' grade. This has happened over the past years and is increasingly happening today.
Interesting to note that, unlike the lab cut-grading systems, the PS-system also involves steering people to minimum-levels of color and clarity arrived-at by group consensus. So, just as there are an abundance of diamonds aimed to achieve the minimum-level of 'Buy' in cut quality the number of available In-House diamonds also bulges at the 'Buy' FGH colors and SI-VS clarities; where options outnumber all other clarity grades by a factor of 10 to 1.
Important to note in this regard is that the PS-system is not set in time, but that it evolves over time. With vendors pushing the minimum-level envelope, it naturally evolves to less strictness.
Summary
When grading-systems try to describe a certain reality in human behavior or action (Cut is a typical example of human action), the existence of the system generally has the effect that it pushes human behavior in a natural way towards the minimum permissible-level of a certain grade. Just like most drivers will tend to go between 75-80mph in a 70mph speed-limit zone.
So what is described as ‘gaming the system’ on PS (when talking about GIA and AGS) also exists at the level of Pricescope too. The advice on the PS-forums is also a grading-system, and indeed, vendors have turned it into an art to game this system too. I think that it is good to realize this and possibly discuss strategies to counter this natural evolution.
Live long,
Introduction:
Regular posters on PS sometimes highlight how the industry ‘games’ certain grading systems, mostly cut-grading systems. What is this ‘gaming the system’ actually? Here are examples.
Example 1: The GIA cut-grading system
GIA introduced a cut-grading-system for rounds in 2006. It has five possible grades; Poor, Fair, Good, Very-Good & Excellent, with most cutters aiming for the Excellent-grade, if not the Very-Good grade.
According to GIA, the division into five grades is based upon the number of categories humans are able to clearly discern. Granted, this is a worthy explanation, but with basic studies which are partially flawed and the further simplification of converting a 3D item with 57+ measurements into a handful of averaged and rounded 2D data points for ease-of-repeatability (well-documented on Pricescope) the best one can say is that the system is not foolproof. I would say that the general sentiment on this forum is that an EX cut-grade by GIA is a nice start, but the stone needs to be further examined via HCA and further photographic evidence. So briefly, within the EX grade of GIA, there are still various levels of cut-quality that warrant further investigation.
With GIA being the foremost authority in lab-grading however, the GIA cut-grade is for most diamond cutters the final word. In essence, on the worldwide diamond-market, a potential premium exists for an EX grade, but often not for further refinement. It is thus logical that many diamond cutters will aim to obtain this EX grade if in any way possible, without paying attention to further refinement.
This logical and, in this case, that human reflex is aided by technology. The GIA system is very predictable and has been incorporated in all brands of diamond-planning technology. After scanning a rough stone, most factory systems will calculate the biggest stone one can obtain while staying inside a specific cut-grade; in this example GIA EX. For most rough stones the advice will be a combination of the deepest pavilion and crown angle combination. For the same diameter, this will yield the highest weight.
As a result, we see an oversupply of such "steep-deep" combos in GIA-EX. On PS, it is very well known that these generally are less nice, but on the worldwide diamond-market, there is no problem selling them... After all they have the coveted "GIA EX" grade. Given that higher yield out of the same rough, the seller also has room to supply them at slightly lower prices, which even enhances their appeal.
Here on PS, we often describe such stones as the result of ‘gaming the system’. We can probably argue whether that ‘gaming’ takes place with intent, but the fact is that it is sufficient for many cutters to produce the minimum-level of the GIA EX-grade. Considering this result; a majority of diamonds produced near the minimum-level of the grade, it can be questioned whether the resulting production is in line with GIA's original intent of creating a clearly discernable Excellent grade.
My conclusion is that the creation of the system has had a consequence which was not the intention of the creators of the system.
Example 2: The AGS cut-grading system
The above series-of-events was already observed on diamond-discussion forums in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, when assessing stones with the old version of the AGS Ideal grade. In the same way, AGS had a 2D cut-grade (like the current GIA system) which resulted in an overwhelming production of steep-deep AGS Ideals.
Probably this reality led the AGS to develop a new cut-grading system, introduced in 2005. According to AGS tradition, the system has 11 cut-grades, ranging from 10 to 0 (Ideal), but in practice, only the top Ideal-grade seriously has commercial appeal.
Because of the 3-dimensional nature of the new AGS system, it is a bit more difficult to understand and predict grades. But after time intelligent cutters have also found out where the minimum-levels of this Ideal-grade are. And once again, the logic of human nature leads to productions being targeted at this minimum-level.
At the same time, within the AGS Ideal grade, there are still various levels of performance. This is only natural, because the grade mainly depends upon an assessment of brightness only, with almost none of fire and absolutely none of scintillation. The same applies for GIA, by the way. Very often, AGS-Ideal is represented as an automatic H&A, which does not need to be the case. And even AGS accepts that there are still different levels within the top-grade, but prefers to describe that as differences in ‘taste’. And granted, further refining of the AGS-system would probably drive even more of their grading-business away to GIA (already a huge problem for AGSL) so I can fully understand their human reaction.
Halfway-conclusion
Grading-systems with a definite top-grade have an adverse effect. Supply will tend to concentrate on achieving the minimum-level of that top-grade, in the absence of a stimulus to do better than that. This can be described as ‘gaming the system,' as if there were malicious intent to deceive. I think that the phenomenon definitely exists, but I would attribute it to simple human logic, not evil or malice, which also makes it more difficult to combat.
Final question: Pricescope as a grading-system
When we observe our favorite website Pricescope, and especially the RockyTalky forum, it is a mini-market for diamonds; a market with its own unwritten rules and understandings. In this mini-market, the advice given on the forums can be regarded as a grading-system of its own.
Here, we do not have grades ranging from Poor to Excellent or 10 to 0, but we can roughly divide the advice in three categories:
- The lowest grade is that of 'Fail.' Do not buy this stone, we will present you with better and cheaper alternatives.
- The middle grade is that of ‘More info needed. Please check further, if possible in person’.
- The top-grade is ‘Buy’, ‘Yummy’, ‘Kewl’, ‘Go for It’
In this mini-market for diamonds, we have a limited number of specialized vendors, aiming specifically to sell via the forum. This may prove very beneficial for them because a sale to a satisfied PS-consumer can lead to positive bias and thus free publicity, even to non-Pricescopers.
But just like with other cut-grading systems, this has influenced the average supply. Reaching the top-grade of 'Buy' on PS is the goal so, logically, vendors need to figure out what the minimum-level of this grade is. And, since they are intelligent people, more and more have figured this out.
Given that we are describing human reactions to systems, it is logical to assume that, over-time, supply of diamonds on PS is increasing at or near the minimum-level of the Pricescope 'Buy' grade. And, indeed, we've seen more and more supply on PS relaxed in cut-quality to achieve the minimum-level of the Pricescope 'Buy' grade. This has happened over the past years and is increasingly happening today.
Interesting to note that, unlike the lab cut-grading systems, the PS-system also involves steering people to minimum-levels of color and clarity arrived-at by group consensus. So, just as there are an abundance of diamonds aimed to achieve the minimum-level of 'Buy' in cut quality the number of available In-House diamonds also bulges at the 'Buy' FGH colors and SI-VS clarities; where options outnumber all other clarity grades by a factor of 10 to 1.
Important to note in this regard is that the PS-system is not set in time, but that it evolves over time. With vendors pushing the minimum-level envelope, it naturally evolves to less strictness.
Summary
When grading-systems try to describe a certain reality in human behavior or action (Cut is a typical example of human action), the existence of the system generally has the effect that it pushes human behavior in a natural way towards the minimum permissible-level of a certain grade. Just like most drivers will tend to go between 75-80mph in a 70mph speed-limit zone.
So what is described as ‘gaming the system’ on PS (when talking about GIA and AGS) also exists at the level of Pricescope too. The advice on the PS-forums is also a grading-system, and indeed, vendors have turned it into an art to game this system too. I think that it is good to realize this and possibly discuss strategies to counter this natural evolution.
Live long,