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Diamond prices again...

dreamer_dachsie

Super_Ideal_Rock
Joined
Dec 16, 2007
Messages
24,364
Boy am I glad I upgraded when I did! If I had not upgraded last year when I did, I would not be able to afford it now.

I was noticing in some recent threads that prices seemed really high all of a sudden, so I went to price out a diamond of my current stone's stats on BGD's website, and it would cost me $4000 more to buy my diamond now that it did 12 months ago! That is an increase of 40%.

And this pattern seems to be accross the board.

I am shocked. Is this expected to continue?
 

Circe

Ideal_Rock
Trade
Joined
Apr 26, 2007
Messages
8,087
I know what you mean: I noticed that my pear would cost almost double if I were to buy it today, a year and 1/4 later. Yikes! I was planning to get an upgrade for my 5 year anniversary, but now I'm wondering if it will make more sense to wait for the 10 year and hope prices level out ....
 

Sheherizaad

Shiny_Rock
Joined
Feb 7, 2011
Messages
244
Are diamond prices cyclical at all or do they perpetually increase? In other words, is it possible that I'd buy a stone for 1k today, but if I bought it a year from now it would be 2k, and if I bought it three years from now (presuming a "leveling out"), it would be 1.5k?
 

Black Jade

Brilliant_Rock
Joined
Aug 21, 2008
Messages
1,242
They cannot be perpetually increasing because I can remember when to buy a D IF one carat stone cost $60,000. That was in 1980's dollars which were significantly stronger than the dollar is now. Most prices were lower. A salary of $50,000 was a good salary and you could buy a nice condominium for $60,000 (which we in fact did).
this is why the original diamond e-rings of ladies in their fifties and early sixties are, by today's standards, small. A ring with a .50 carat stone was huge then, and many people had .10 or .15 as a solitaire stone.
So prices do go down sometimes.
However, diamond prices really have been rising very quickly recently and I do not know why. Is it something about making up for the stall in prices that happened since the financial meltdown in 2008? I looked on Blue Nile and saw that the anniversary ring that I got in 2008 for $2400 and change, which remained the same exact price until this January, is suddenly about $3,000 now. Some of this is that the price of platinum has risen (the setting which cost $700 is now $850) but most of it is that the diamond cost more.
I don't think I could afford my Whiteflash earrings if we wanted to buy the same ones now. We would either have to go down in size or make a very significant quality reduction.
I'm not in the market for anything else at the moment. I wasn't anyway.
When my sons get engaged (some years int he future) I don't know what diamonds will cost. If they keep going up though, what will happen will be that the styles will change. As has happened with gold. Suddenly much thinner pieces are in (this also happened when gold spiked 30 years ago.) What will happen with diamonds will be that smaller stones will come in, or some style that requires a clustering of stones--and people will like it, too. I remember that in the late 70's and early 80's all we girls honestly thought that our mother's much larger diamond solitaire rings were old-fashioned, tacky and gaudy. Significant looking jewelry went completely out of style and we liked everything 'delicate'. I didn't even realize at the time that we were making a virtue out of necessity--it honestly seemed that way.
There's but so much the market will bear. although many people on this board who get engaged are established professionals in their late twenties and their thirties, there are still a lot of very young people getting engaged in other social classes and the boys of 21 and 22 can't get the girls large rings and large stones even now--and with rising prices it will be even more impossible.
 

tyty333

Super_Ideal_Rock
Premium
Joined
Dec 17, 2008
Messages
22,709
I'm sad too ;( ...I can see my hopes for a 1.4 ctw 7 stone ring for my bday in Oct vanishing into thin air. It might either go
down to a 5 stone ring or stay at a 7 stone with much smaller stones :errrr: .
 

rubybeth

Ideal_Rock
Joined
Nov 12, 2007
Messages
2,567
Trying to use this info. to convince my DH that an upgrade now makes more sense than waiting for our 5 year anniversary. His question, "Why would we buy ANOTHER diamond?" :-o My answer of "Because I don't ever want to trade in my original e-ring diamond" hasn't thus far been convincing enough. :(( At least he said he'd think about it. :tongue:
 

yssie

Super_Ideal_Rock
Premium
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Aug 14, 2009
Messages
21,248
rubybeth|1303395500|2901830 said:
Trying to use this info. to convince my DH that an upgrade now makes more sense than waiting for our 5 year anniversary. His question, "Why would we buy ANOTHER diamond?" :-o My answer of "Because I don't ever want to trade in my original e-ring diamond" hasn't thus far been convincing enough. :(( At least he said he'd think about it. :tongue:

You mean batting your eyelashes and saying please doesn't work? :devil:


Dreamer - I am somewhat surprised to see this trend - not so much that prices *are* rising, but that they're so consistently rising across the board - even in more unusual combos like low-colour high-clarity, larger low-colour low-clarity stones... :sick:
 

Gypsy

Super_Ideal_Rock
Joined
Aug 8, 2005
Messages
40,198
Yeah, I had a co-worker inquire about my Aurora Band so I called Brian to get a ball park for her, knowing the prices have gone up. HOLY COW. I never would have been able to get the band, reset my diamond, and get my odds and ends necklace done now. I got really lucky. And that was only 6 months ago!

Now, of course I wish I'd jumped on the studs I was thinking of buying. Not happening this year, I can tell you that.
 

kenny

Super_Ideal_Rock
Premium
Joined
Apr 30, 2005
Messages
29,150
Black Jade|1303354835|2901596 said:
However, diamond prices really have been rising very quickly recently and I do not know why.
I think, like John Pollard has said, that the enormous populations of India and China and their rising affluence is a major factor in rising diamond prices.
Supply and demand.

I too am sooooo happy I grabbed my forever asscher diamond a few years ago.
At the time it seemed like an obscene and even dumb extravagance, but now I can pretend that I was smart and insightful to recognize the "investment". :lol:

Also, I'm particularly happy I grabbed all those fancy colored diamonds before prices went even higher.
There is a blue one that I got quite recently that I was considering returning but now I'd never find anything near as nice for anything near that price. ;(
 

iota15

Brilliant_Rock
Joined
Mar 19, 2010
Messages
1,278
Black Jade|1303354835|2901596 said:
When my sons get engaged (some years int he future) I don't know what diamonds will cost. If they keep going up though, what will happen will be that the styles will change. As has happened with gold. Suddenly much thinner pieces are in (this also happened when gold spiked 30 years ago.) What will happen with diamonds will be that smaller stones will come in, or some style that requires a clustering of stones--and people will like it, too. I remember that in the late 70's and early 80's all we girls honestly thought that our mother's much larger diamond solitaire rings were old-fashioned, tacky and gaudy. Significant looking jewelry went completely out of style and we liked everything 'delicate'. I didn't even realize at the time that we were making a virtue out of necessity--it honestly seemed that way.
That's REALLY interesting BlackJade.
 

shihtzulover

Brilliant_Rock
Joined
Jun 30, 2010
Messages
717
Are the price increases expected to continue indefinitely, or will they likely come back down at some point?
 

dreamer_dachsie

Super_Ideal_Rock
Joined
Dec 16, 2007
Messages
24,364
shihtzulover|1303415988|2902076 said:
Are the price increases expected to continue indefinitely, or will they likely come back down at some point?
Does anything come back down?

Gas sometimes I suppose. But not much else!
 

dreamer_dachsie

Super_Ideal_Rock
Joined
Dec 16, 2007
Messages
24,364
kenny|1303412263|2902021 said:
I too am sooooo happy I grabbed my forever asscher diamond a few years ago.
At the time it seemed like an obscene and even dumb extravagance, but now I can pretend that I was smart and insightful to recognize the "investment". :lol:

I am also glad I bought when I did. I was just talking to my husband about this issue last night and patting myself on the back that I "saved" us so much money :rodent:

The reality is, had I waited a year longer until now, I would not have my diamond at all. It would have been *much* too hard to justify the cost.
 

Wink

Ideal_Rock
Trade
Joined
May 3, 2001
Messages
7,516
I can see how consumers might be either sad or glad with these changes in diamond pricing.

As a retailer I can assure you that the long term picture of higher pricing is NOT something we are looking forward to.

It's true that those of us who adjust prices when costs rise may enjoy a one-time extra-profit but it won't last long because we're required to spend that profit just to replace what we sold - if we want to keep our inventory levels where they are now. Those who do not rise prices of existing inventory will be unable to replace it, to their eventual detriment. So we are forced into a tough situation along with consumers!

When Paul Slegers of Infinity Diamonds said back in January that there would be a price increase of approximately 10% over this year (if memory serves, I reserve the right to be off a few percent) there was some “opposition” against that opinion raised here. That is logical since we all want to shoot the messenger who bears bad news. But it now appears that he was too optimistic since there have already been, in some categories, more than 10% increases and it is possible to see another bump in the next few weeks before JCK.

Wink
 

Sheherizaad

Shiny_Rock
Joined
Feb 7, 2011
Messages
244
But if (as consumers) we wait it out a bit, say a 2 year hiatus, are the prices predicted (longer term) to come back down to say the levels of 2009 or 2010?

Can any long term (20/30 year) diamond afficianados weigh in? :wavey:
 

pinkprashu

Shiny_Rock
Joined
Dec 27, 2007
Messages
352
I was one of the lucky ones who upgraded just before the increase in price in January. My diamond now costs around $8000 dollars and that is a 20% increase since January. The one I traded in January that was listed for $5100 in 2008 now is listed on WF site for $7220 that is a whopping 41.5% increase since 2008.
 

rubybeth

Ideal_Rock
Joined
Nov 12, 2007
Messages
2,567
Yssie|1303409793|2901993 said:
rubybeth|1303395500|2901830 said:
Trying to use this info. to convince my DH that an upgrade now makes more sense than waiting for our 5 year anniversary. His question, "Why would we buy ANOTHER diamond?" :-o My answer of "Because I don't ever want to trade in my original e-ring diamond" hasn't thus far been convincing enough. :(( At least he said he'd think about it. :tongue:
You mean batting your eyelashes and saying please doesn't work? :devil:
Oh, I wish it did, all right! :(( How DO people convince their DHs to upgrade so soon? I can see 10, 15, 20 year upgrades as making some kind of sense, but we're not yet at the 3 year mark... :(sad
 

Cozystitches

Brilliant_Rock
Premium
Joined
Mar 2, 2010
Messages
1,178
Rubybeth - When you find out how, please share!!! We will be celebrating our 13th anniversary in August, and my hubby is not too keen on the upgrade idea. A few months ago he asked me how much the new ring I wanted would cost. I stuttered and didn't answer, he responded in a shocked tone what like :-o $4,000 :-o If he only knew... :devil: :naughty:
 

JoeNewbie11

Shiny_Rock
Joined
Mar 27, 2008
Messages
406
Prices of EVERYTHING can either go up or down, even diamonds. Remember the housing bubble and all the BS the real estate industry / banks spewed about "they're not making anymore land", "prices always go up", "buy now or be priced out forever", "rich investors from overseas are buying properties", and on and on. The same can go for diamonds. Wait till the central banks all over the world lose control of governments and their people; the banks' policies of zero interest rates/free money, inflating the stock markets, etc. will stop. Then you'll see a huge drop in prices for all commodities, no more funny money.
 

Lula

Ideal_Rock
Joined
Apr 5, 2009
Messages
4,546
I agree, Joe, with your basic idea, if not your exact fact scenario. We are in a commodities bubble right now, as governments struggle to get their debt situation under control -- and this is not just about the USA's debt; this is playing out all over the world. Capital has moved to precious metals and other commodities in response to this uncertainty, and commodites prices are in speculative territory, imho. This is very similar to what happened with the housing bubble, without as much fraud on the part of the banks (perhaps). And eerily similar to the time Black Jade is referring to during the late 1970s and 1980s. I own a book written during that time entitled "How to Speculate in Gems and Diamonds" or something like that. It's a relic from another speculative period in the commodities market. Maybe I'll get that book out and quote some of it's more memorable (and false) predictions for you.

Diamonds are part of this commodities bubble, and the increases in consumer demand from emerging markets along with planned restrictions in supply certainly add to the bubble. But...it's a bubble, folks. Though bubbles can and do last for a while, they are not sustainable in the long run. And bubbles are notorious for feeding into "panic" mentality: Shortages! Buy now! Prices are going up!

No way am I buying another "new" diamond until this works itself out. There's a lot to be had on the second-hand market, and if you educate yourself, like all of us have on PS, you can find decent stones among the mall dreck that's out there. If prices in the diamond overhang (read used and second-hand) market start to increase, then I'll believe that this is more than a short-term bubble (short-term meaning a few years).

But right now, you and I can still take our AGS 0 and GIA Ex, good color and good clarity diamonds to our neighborhood pawn shops and expect to receive about 25% of what they're "worth," so I remain a skeptic about the true "value" of diamonds.

There are still many bargains to be had in the colored stone market, and I'm not above wearing sterling silver. So that's the direction I'm headed next for my jewelry fix :naughty:

Call me a cynic -- end of rant.
 

coda72

Brilliant_Rock
Joined
Mar 1, 2005
Messages
1,648
I am not sure if diamond prices will ever come back down, but if not, I am glad I already got (what will be) my final upgrade stone. I originally wanted a 2 carat or a little over that to be my final stone, but I'm pretty happy with my 1.733 carat. I just can't see paying around $8000 for 0.4 mm size difference. If diamond prices come down again, I will likely upgrade, but I will not otherwise. I'm also happy I talked hubby into this bigger stone last year when the price was $3000 lower than what it is this year!
 

Laila619

Super_Ideal_Rock
Premium
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Apr 28, 2008
Messages
11,633
I'm so glad I bought in '09. :errrr: That's crazy!
 

diagem

Ideal_Rock
Trade
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Oct 21, 2004
Messages
4,979
JoeNewbie11|1303492288|2902708 said:
Prices of EVERYTHING can either go up or down, even diamonds. Remember the housing bubble and all the BS the real estate industry / banks spewed about "they're not making anymore land", "prices always go up", "buy now or be priced out forever", "rich investors from overseas are buying properties", and on and on. The same can go for diamonds. Wait till the central banks all over the world lose control of governments and their people; the banks' policies of zero interest rates/free money, inflating the stock markets, etc. will stop. Then you'll see a huge drop in prices for all commodities, no more funny money.
Sounds like some of the reasons that justify holding capital in hard assets like Diamonds..., no?
 

Dancing Fire

Super_Ideal_Rock
Premium
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Apr 3, 2004
Messages
32,446
rubybeth|1303487962|2902665 said:
Yssie|1303409793|2901993 said:
rubybeth|1303395500|2901830 said:
Trying to use this info. to convince my DH that an upgrade now makes more sense than waiting for our 5 year anniversary. His question, "Why would we buy ANOTHER diamond?" :-o My answer of "Because I don't ever want to trade in my original e-ring diamond" hasn't thus far been convincing enough. :(( At least he said he'd think about it. :tongue:
You mean batting your eyelashes and saying please doesn't work? :devil:
Oh, I wish it did, all right! :(( How DO people convince their DHs to upgrade so soon? I can see 10, 15, 20 year upgrades as making some kind of sense, but we're not yet at the 3 year mark... :(sad
easy...tell your DH to either upgrade your stone now or you'll upgrade the husband within a month.. :lol:
 

kittybean

Ideal_Rock
Joined
May 2, 2008
Messages
4,125
I am happy I got my studs when I did (about a month ago). Although they were slightly more expensive than they would've been had I bought them before January, I still managed to squeeze them into my budget.

However, I am so, so sad for all the future diamond pieces I've been planning on slowly accumulating--it seems the five-stone ring I want will likely be unafforadable at any point in the near future :(( . I really hope that prices come down over the long term.
 

Dancing Fire

Super_Ideal_Rock
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Messages
32,446
shihtzulover|1303415988|2902076 said:
Are the price increases expected to continue indefinitely, or will they likely come back down at some point?
some good news...a 1ct D IF was selling for like 58k-$60k in the early 80's? :read: and now selling for like $32k?

2003 was the recent bottom for diamonds.
 

austere

Rough_Rock
Joined
Apr 6, 2011
Messages
41
Looking at the historical trends from the data listed on the site below, prices really don't seem that unrealistic for diamonds.
http://www.ajediam.com/Diamonds_Prices_Diamonds_Ratings.html
While I agree that in times of uncertainty and the devaluation of currencies, people tend to flock towards commodities, it doesn't seem like the same situation as the real estate bubble. Now if prices continue on up, 20-30% a year, there may be a case for an upcoming correction.

Emerging markets/regions have begun gaining significant steam over the last decade, which in my opinion is certainly driving some of the recent pricing trends.
 

JoeNewbie11

Shiny_Rock
Joined
Mar 27, 2008
Messages
406
Actually, when interest rates are low and/or governments are printing money, you want to sell hard assets like houses, precious metals, diamonds, etc. because when that environment changes, the purchasing power of the buyer drops off dramatically (there's less credit/money available to buy the same number of commodities).
 

Black Jade

Brilliant_Rock
Joined
Aug 21, 2008
Messages
1,242
Secondary markets are a very good idea at the moment. As someone stated above, Pricescope knowledge helps. I have some pretty diamonds at the local pawnshop in the past year.
Of course, make sure they have a good return return policy that gives you time to take the diamond for appraising.
And just think how green you are being--its a form of recycling.
Even for those who want a 'new' engagement ring, its a good place to look for diamonds for pendants; studs are very easy to find there and also bracelets.
 
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