Are you still going for walks outside?

[OoohShiny]

I am inclined to think that infection risk from just passing another person who may or may not have it is extremely low.

The UK Govt has used graphics to show that the lockdown reduces the number of people infected by an infected person from 2.5 per week to 1.25 per week.

On that basis, living your life 'as normal' would mean a whole week of 'normal' contact resulting in only infecting 2.5 people.

On that basis, passing someone momentarily in an outdoors environment seems extremely unlikely to present any sort of infection risk.


The amount of panic and worry this is creating through lack of information and Press scaremongering is likely to cause more problems than the virus itself, which has only a very low risk of mortality for the large majority of the population.

 

[AV_]

LOL I dunno about that @missy but I like that people are waving and greeting everyone--we are all feeling this need to be connected even if we are 12 feet away.

Aye! Salutes between strangers are already expected around here, now the greetings are longer & there be digressions beyond my command of Andaluz Spanish (I live in two other languages!) - to be answered from a couple of meters away so that everyone hears everyone else [Twitter in the flesh, except for the rule to not hear what you are not meant to - tough evidentiary rules]

ramble

I am enjoying the quiet too much - this is the sound of the life I want, if not only

 

[missy]

I'm not going until I get a mask. I've ordered from different places, but nothing has come yet. My daughter and her fiance walk the dogs daily, but say there are always people out, which is kind of discouraging. It gets hard for them to dodge sometimes, so they've been trying to go at night, but then it's too cold for the dogs. I spend time outside in the backyard instead.

@lyra do you or anyone in your family sew? They are relatively easy to sew...instructions in this thread.

Face Masks and other strategies to help slow Covid-19 spread

I want to get the info on face masks. I am guessing this might be of interest to some/many of us. Here is the info I found from the WHO. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks I was chatting with a good friend yesterday and...

www.pricescope.com

 

[chemgirl]

Same. I’m going running outside, but forget about my usual trails. They’re crammed with people (seriously cars all over the grass it was crazy).

I’ve been driving out to the suburbs and running in developments. I just try and pass people when there’s a driveway to hop into.

 

[missy]

I am inclined to think that infection risk from just passing another person who may or may not have it is extremely low.

The UK Govt has used graphics to show that the lockdown reduces the number of people infected by an infected person from 2.5 per week to 1.25 per week.

On that basis, living your life 'as normal' would mean a whole week of 'normal' contact resulting in only infecting 2.5 people.

On that basis, passing someone momentarily in an outdoors environment seems extremely unlikely to present any sort of infection risk.


The amount of panic and worry this is creating through lack of information and Press scaremongering is likely to cause more problems than the virus itself, which has only a very low risk of mortality for the large majority of the population.

I hear you but a life is a life. We have now lost over 1200 people in NYC. Heartbreaking. And we are not even at the apex yet. We have 66, 497 cases in NY now and we are not even at the height of this crisis.

Every little bit helps. Please stay safe everyone.

 

[missy]

LOL I dunno about that @missy but I like that people are waving and greeting everyone--we are all feeling this need to be connected even if we are 12 feet away.

Agreed! Last week we stopped and were chatting with a cat daddy whose cat was hanging outside with him. We all stayed 6 plus feet away and were all wearing masks. It's the new normal for now. I did ask him why his cat (Charlie Brown) wasn't wearing a mask. LOL. But the human connection is critical especially now.

 

[Austina]

We’re not currently going out walking ATM, we spend time in the garden, so we’re not completely housebound.

 

[GlitterInMyHair]

Yes. I don't live in a crowded town, so it's easy to keep distance while outside.

And it's a bit of entertainment too. This weekend, I saw a big burly dude out walking with his tiny chihuahua that was wearing a hot pink tutu, lol.

 

[telephone89]

Yes of course. Now that my husband is home we try to take a walk once a day around the pond. Lots of people out, but everyone respecting distancing.

 

[Rhea]

Yes, we are once a day. I used to cycle to work and DH walked a lot at work. We do so little now that we're walking or running in our local area once a day.

People don't necessarily stay 6 foot away, in a city on a narrow footpath that's nearly impossible, but people aren't so close, quickly pass each other, and cross to the other side of the pavement (usually about 3 to 5 foot wide I'd estimate) so they aren't as close as they otherwise might be. That's good enough for me! It'd be crazy to expect more distance or fewer people going out in a city where we're now all working from home with that home often being a small space with no garden.

We all need to stay as mentally healthy as possible and getting outside is a huge part of that for me.

 

[luv2sparkle]

We do. We have a couple masks, that my husband had in the garage, but only wear them if we have to go to a store. Our town has a concentrated outbreak, but I am not too worried about going outside for a walk. I haven't gone for the last week because I strained a muscle in my lower back cleaning the bathtub. From now on hubby gets that job since is is much taller.
My son and husband have been going out every day. They have a harder time than I do with he stay at home thing.

 

[Asscherhalo_lover]

Several times a day in all weather. The child and the dog need walks. We do not live in a busy neighborhood and are very mindful to avoid walking by other people.

 

[Tacori E-ring]

We try to but it is still cold and dreary where I live. It would be much easier if the weather was nice and at least we could feel sunshine.

 

[OreoRosies86]

I hear you but a life is a life. We have now lost over 1200 people in NYC. Heartbreaking. And we are not even at the apex yet. We have 66, 497 cases in NY now and we are not even at the height of this crisis.

Every little bit helps. Please stay safe everyone.

Well said... a life is a life. I might survive it, I might not. My mother is waiting for a pacemaker in June. She won’t survive this if exposed, her cardiologist was as blunt about that as a person can be. That’s why I’m trying to piece together what info I can and make the best decisions. A very helpless feeling most of the time.

 

[canuk-gal]

Agreed! Last week we stopped and were chatting with a cat daddy whose cat was hanging outside with him. We all stayed 6 plus feet away and were all wearing masks. It's the new normal for now. I did ask him why his cat (Charlie Brown) wasn't wearing a mask. LOL. But the human connection is critical especially now.

I was throwing snowballs at my DH, into the puddles at the trees etc, and my gloves got wet. I pulled my hands half out and was kinda air drying them and a lady walking toward me thought I was hand flapping/signalling to her--so she did the same back! WE LOL As she walked by She said "this is our new way to communicate"! Amen!

 

[kenny]

I am inclined to think that infection risk from just passing another person who may or may not have it is extremely low.

I used to agree with you ... that is unless they happen to cough in just the wrong direction at just the wrong moment.

But then I read the following, which has converted me into one of the street-crossing walkers.

SNIP
But according to research by scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, it's not just the person next to us we should worry about: coughing spreads droplets as far as six metres [20 feet], and sneezing as much as eight metres [26 feet]. These droplets stay suspended in the air for up to 10 minutes.

How far do coughs and sneezes travel?

Coughs and sneezes spread diseases, and you’ll definitely want to cover your mouth after reading this.

www.sciencefocus.com

 

[Luce]

We are still able to enjoy our walks. The poppies are in bloom on the trail by our house.

 

[rainydaze]

Yes, definitely. There isn't much else to do, and we took regular walks anyway prior to CV. We live on a cul-de-sac which is ideal for taking in some fresh air and making laps. Many of our neighbors also walked often prior to this, and we are still passing by one or two on some walks. Other times we don't come across anyone. It's easy to keep our distance and we just wave hello and that's mostly it (we're a close neighborhood, but also like-minded about keeping each other safe).

We live in a fairly rural area with some great trails and conservation land. These places have become 'packed'. We managed to find one trail that was less traveled and came across only two other families... in each case we either moved way off to the side of the trail or they did. But we've also shown up and turned around to leave.

 

[Luce]

Oops...seeing double!!!

 

[kenny]

Luce you obviously live on the opposite side on the globe than I do, California, because everything there is up side down.

I just don't understand how California poppies could be there too.

 

[Demon]

I'm not going for walks, but it's only because I like to be out by myself, and right now everyone's out.

 

[Niffler75]

@kenny Darn it, you pipped me to the post with your humorous response!
@Luce Beautiful poppies, my favourite colour too!

 

[OoohShiny]

I hear you but a life is a life. We have now lost over 1200 people in NYC. Heartbreaking. And we are not even at the apex yet. We have 66, 497 cases in NY now and we are not even at the height of this crisis.

Every little bit helps. Please stay safe everyone.

Every person that dies is a loss, of course, but looking at figures for recorded cases and recorded deaths, the mortality rates are extremely low in the under 60s, so those in that age range arguably don't really have anything to worry about personally:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1241741127205572609

(taken from here: )

The Covid-19 risks for different age groups, explained

Different age cohorts have different vulnerabilities to Covid-19, but nobody’s risk is zero.

www.vox.com

These figures also take no account of the potentially vast numbers of people that are asymptomatic or have only very slight symptoms, who therefore have not attended medical facilities to be tested - in which case, it could be that mortality rates are much lower and perhaps nearer to those of seasonal flu (which I believe is around 0.1%).

It is, of course, important to consider that such people may have contact with those in the higher risk groups, and social distancing of those older groups makes sense, but the figures don't support the notion that everyone should be extremely scared of Covid-19, IMHO.


Looking at the figures for seasonal flu, it seems that overall numbers of infections and deaths are similar or higher, and we don't do economic shutdown and social distancing for that!

One moment, please...

healthvigil.com

More than 200,000 people are hospitalized each year in the United States for the flu illness and its complications and between 3,000 and 49,000 people die each year from the flu. The number of flu deaths every year varies.

For example,

The average number of flu deaths during the 1990s was 36,000.
Average number over a longer time frame from 1976 to 2007 was 23,607 deaths.

If you take the number of deaths year wise, you will find a vast variation with a low of 3,349 deaths during the flu season of 1986-87 to a high of 48,614 in 2003-04.

The above-mentioned figures are for adults only and are rough estimates. The CDC estimates that 60 percent of flu-related hospital admissions and 90 percent of flu-related deaths occur in people of this age group. This only makes it all the essential that people of this age group take the flu vaccine every year.

...

About 3 to 5 million cases of severe flu illness and about 250 000 to 500 000 flu season deaths worldwide occur due to the influenza virus.

Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates

CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.

www.cdc.gov

CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 21, 2020, there have been:

38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses

18,000,000 – 26,000,000 flu medical visits

400,000 – 730,000 flu hospitalizations

24,000 – 62,000 flu deaths

I totally understand the need to manage demand for limited healthcare facilities, and how social distancing and removal of the opportunity for virus spreading by closing down locations where the population mixes will reduce the rate of infection, but I think we all need to work on the basis that each of us will get Covid19 at some point, in the same way we get seasonal flu.

I have total empathy for those either of an age or with relatives of an age that fall into the high risk categories, and I hope that no-one suffers any loss, but we mustn't forget we are just slightly hairy monkeys running around this planet, and it's only in the last 100 or so years that we've been able to put off death - prior to that point, a scratch on a rusty nail could finish us off! As a society we are no longer used to, or comfortable with, the fact that life can be short and we all must move on at some point.


All that makes me look like I'm a cold-hearted accountant but I just feel that media-fuelled scaring of the population does everyone no good - stress and anxiety is bad for the individual, arguably worse in the long term than getting a variation of the flu that the figures suggest will be unlikely to mean the need for healthcare assistance in most of the population.


[/controversial post]

 

[missy]

Every person that dies is a loss, of course, but looking at figures for recorded cases and recorded deaths, the mortality rates are extremely low in the under 60s, so those in that age range arguably don't really have anything to worry about personally:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1241741127205572609

(taken from here: )

The Covid-19 risks for different age groups, explained

Different age cohorts have different vulnerabilities to Covid-19, but nobody’s risk is zero.

www.vox.com

These figures also take no account of the potentially vast numbers of people that are asymptomatic or have only very slight symptoms, who therefore have not attended medical facilities to be tested - in which case, it could be that mortality rates are much lower and perhaps nearer to those of seasonal flu (which I believe is around 0.1%).

It is, of course, important to consider that such people may have contact with those in the higher risk groups, and social distancing of those older groups makes sense, but the figures don't support the notion that everyone should be extremely scared of Covid-19, IMHO.


Looking at the figures for seasonal flu, it seems that overall numbers of infections and deaths are similar or higher, and we don't do economic shutdown and social distancing for that!

One moment, please...

healthvigil.com

Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates

CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.

www.cdc.gov

I totally understand the need to manage demand for limited healthcare facilities, and how social distancing and removal of the opportunity for virus spreading by closing down locations where the population mixes will reduce the rate of infection, but I think we all need to work on the basis that each of us will get Covid19 at some point, in the same way we get seasonal flu.


All that makes me look like I'm a cold-hearted accountant but I just feel that media-fuelled scaring of the population does everyone no good - stress and anxiety is bad for the individual, arguably worse in the long term than getting a variation of the flu that the figures suggest will be unlikely to mean the need for healthcare assistance in most of the population.

Yes, most everyone will eventually get Covid 19 and as you write about 80% will be mild and 20% not mild and that includes patients in the severe to critical category. Those numbers in the severe to critical category are by no means small numbers. Of course YMMV but in my world when there are 200,000 deaths (as is being predicted by Dr. Fauci) that might potentially occur in NYC that is in no way, shape or form inconsequential or low mortality.

Those are real human beings. Flesh and blood. Who have loved ones and lives. Who deserve not to die. Who don't deserve to be trivialized in any way. Just because they are older? Or weaker? Are they less valuable to society? In your eyes? Not in mine.



The point is (as I see it) is to flatten that damn curve. As best we can. Because our hospitals are not able to deal with the number of cases should they keep rising at this rate. And people will die who could have been saved because of lack of ventilators, because of lack of proper healthcare. Because the system will be overwhelmed. *Unless* we flatten the curve.

And as for age groups and statistics most of my loved ones are over 60 including my dh. And that age is just an artificial number anyway. The chance increases but it doesn't magically go up from 59 to 60. It is just a range. There is no magic safe age and no magic dangerous age.

And for the record, I am not advocating as you write "that everyone should be extremely scared of Covid-19". I was just writing every single life matters IMHO and cross that damn street if someone is coming please. Because it isn't just you that you are protecting but everyone around you.

In a nutshell we should all remain vigilant because the life we could potentially save is a life that matters.

#giveadamn

JMO.

 

[YadaYadaYada]

We are going for drives more than walks. My oldest son has just been allowed to play Pokémon Go and he enjoys a ride in the car to "catch them all". DH and I frequently drive down to the river and on a nice day sit and have coffee, it's a little zen before we need to come back to reality.

 

[Arcadian]

People SHOULD be scared of this @OoohShiny and its mainly because of how quickly it can kill and how quickly it overwhelms our health systems. We have front line people who are dealing with days of no down time, and this thing is literally killing them. Not all of them are old, many of them are young. the viral load which keeps getting skipped over, for our front line people has to be tremendous. the lack of resources in our hospitals is another thing altogether, and the the amount that we as a nation depends on another for our much needed essential supplies...its to me regretful and just plain bad.

No arguments on if we will or won't get it. some got it and didn't even know it (and that's all age ranges) if we're not smart about this, we're going to have one hell of a medical apocalypse on our hands and that's real. That's not made up, that's not pseudo science. That's happening on a daily basis.

Our countries, if they can, should take back some of their essential manufacturing capabilities. we're now just starting to realize how much we gave away and how much of it needs to be in house so to speak.

We have to learn from this or cease to exist.
*edited because I suck and its Monday...lol*

BTW I'm not having a go at you, I hope you realize that but its so sad when you see your first line responders having to actually wear trashbags and home made masks, and splash guards made from 2 liter bottles because PPE is just not there.

 

[MaisOuiMadame]

Every person that dies is a loss, of course, but looking at figures for recorded cases and recorded deaths, the mortality rates are extremely low in the under 60s, so those in that age range arguably don't really have anything to worry about personally:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1241741127205572609

(taken from here: )

The Covid-19 risks for different age groups, explained

Different age cohorts have different vulnerabilities to Covid-19, but nobody’s risk is zero.

www.vox.com

These figures also take no account of the potentially vast numbers of people that are asymptomatic or have only very slight symptoms, who therefore have not attended medical facilities to be tested - in which case, it could be that mortality rates are much lower and perhaps nearer to those of seasonal flu (which I believe is around 0.1%).

It is, of course, important to consider that such people may have contact with those in the higher risk groups, and social distancing of those older groups makes sense, but the figures don't support the notion that everyone should be extremely scared of Covid-19, IMHO.


Looking at the figures for seasonal flu, it seems that overall numbers of infections and deaths are similar or higher, and we don't do economic shutdown and social distancing for that!

One moment, please...

healthvigil.com

Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates

CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.

www.cdc.gov

I totally understand the need to manage demand for limited healthcare facilities, and how social distancing and removal of the opportunity for virus spreading by closing down locations where the population mixes will reduce the rate of infection, but I think we all need to work on the basis that each of us will get Covid19 at some point, in the same way we get seasonal flu.

I have total empathy for those either of an age or with relatives of an age that fall into the high risk categories, and I hope that no-one suffers any loss, but we mustn't forget we are just slightly hairy monkeys running around this planet, and it's only in the last 100 or so years that we've been able to put off death - prior to that point, a scratch on a rusty nail could finish us off! As a society we are no longer used to, or comfortable with, the fact that life can be short and we all must move on at some point.


All that makes me look like I'm a cold-hearted accountant but I just feel that media-fuelled scaring of the population does everyone no good - stress and anxiety is bad for the individual, arguably worse in the long term than getting a variation of the flu that the figures suggest will be unlikely to mean the need for healthcare assistance in most of the population.


[/controversial post]

The 19 y/o son who's currently hospitalized with severe breathing issues would beg to differ, I'd say.

20 % of severe cases might seem low-ish to some. And it seems to hit more people over 60. But statistics don't matter much if one is that "exception " oneself.

Likening the numbers to the seasonal flu is surprising. You can see what's happening in Italy right now. The seasonal flu does not overwhelm healthcare systems.
France is overwhelmed in the Lorraine region. Both countries are much higher (ranks 2 and 1) than the NHS (rank 18 ) in the 2018 WHO healthcare system ranking

And if if you've read the accounts of people who were considered moderate cases "most nasty flu for three weeks, not been able to work for a month" and severe cases who had the feeling of suffocating for a week and likely won't recover fully from the tissue damage in their lungs it's nothing I'd liken to the flu.



Warning , don't read if COVID 19 already stresses you out



I'm not even talking about slowly drowning from the inside - that's how people actually die from COVID -19.

I didn't get this from the "fear mongering" media. I hear this from my friends in the healthcare sector. They are going to work, but they are VERY concerned about this.

A mortality rate of 2% sounds good as long as you're not one of them. And there are plenty of examples of healthy people under 60 who suffered really badly.

 

[canuk-gal]

We are still able to enjoy our walks. The poppies are in bloom on the trail by our house.

LUCE in the skyyy with poppies.... LOL

 

[Dandi]

It's autumn here and daylight savings still, not not dark until about 8:30. The evenings have been lovely and warm, so we walk our dog after dinner every night. The kids think that being out when it would normally be bedtime is a huge novelty!

 

[lyra]

@missy, I'm just waiting for some Etsy masks to arrive. Even though it's in the next city about 30 minutes away, they say to allow until april 12. My daughter and husband have masks to reuse, for when they do grocery shopping. DH only does the "elderly and immune compromised" hour in the morning if we have forgotten things. Daughter picks up the weekly shopping. I won't be going out even with the masks unless it's for medical purposes. It's not exactly Spring here yet, kind of cold!