Are you still going for walks outside?

[mellowyellowgirl]

Yes to walks a day. I live on a very empty suburban street and with isolation people walk at different times so there is rarely anyone else out.

I have a giant trampoline in the front yard which has been a godsend! Lots of bouncing to get rid of excess energy from myself and the 7yo.

 

[GliderPoss]

Yes definitely! Would go crazy without it. I live near a big nature reserve so it's easy to go for long hikes without seeing a single soul.

 

[ChickityChicken]

We have been hiking around our house, but avoiding the streets. I live in a nature preserve/ hoa community. We have trials and creeks and a lake to explore. Luckily the ones nearest to my home are not as popular. I live in the northernest part of the Ca central coast, about 35 minutes from the ocean. A few days ago I took the kids for a drive to Morro Bay to maybe get their feet wet depending on how crowded it was. But the parking was closed off so we just drove around with the windows down and took in the crisp ocean air. Though it was nice to get out, since we have been home since the 13th, I decided we won't be taking any more trips any time soon.

 

[jaysonsmom]

LOL I dunno about that @missy but I like that people are waving and greeting everyone--we are all feeling this need to be connected even if we are 12 feet away.

I love this. Even though we are social distancing, I love a wave or a smile from a stranger, I find it extremely rude when people feel that they can't even make eye contact!

Also, in response to the original question, I go for a walk or a run each day, and even though I stay more than 6 feet away (sometimes I run on the black top to avoid people on the sidewalk), I'll wave hi or smile if they are making eye contact, and if they don't I deliberately shout out greeting

 

[canuk-gal]

I love this. Even though we are social distancing, I love a wave or a smile from a stranger, I find it extremely rude when people feel that they can't even make eye contact!

 

[junebug17]

Dh and I go for short walks. My neighborhood is very quiet with few people out. People keep to the 6 foot rule and it is easy to stick to that. If we see someone coming our way, we cross to the other side of the street, or walk in the middle of the street until we pass them.

 

[alittlelight]

I am out walking just about everyday. LOTS of people out in our little suburb, lots of 6-feet-away chats, everyone smiling at each other. People seem to be stepping up with kindness and civility.

 

[Luce]

Luce you obviously live on the opposite side on the globe than I do, California, because everything there is up side down.

I just don't understand how California poppies could be there too.

Ha ha.....have no idea what I did....but those are good old upside down ca poppies

 

[Indylady]

I am, but I try to keep it short

 

[Rubymal]

I walk to work so yeah still outside. I also go for a jog when the weather is nice as exercise. I do my best to jog early when it’s quiet out and about. I used to wear a mask to help protect other people (how would I know if I’m an asymptomatic carrier?) but then people got rude and aggressive with me (I’m Chinese) and so I stopped. I put my mask on at work since thankfully my hospital wised up (and have decent supply chain) and we now have universal masking.

Also this “hanging in the air” thing is true more for aerosolized particles, not droplets, and is more of a concern for medical staff doing intubation procedures. I think some articles aren’t being clear.

That is so sad that people are that ignorant and rude. I also had a man glare and curse at me while I was in my car with a mask on, waiting to park. I was actually wearing it to make my mother feel less awkward because I insisted she must wear it while going out (she is in her 60s and very immunocompromised).

 

[Begonia]

I am, and for the most part it's going well. Many keeping up their end of a respectable 6 feet or more. Many giving a friendly wave.

I notice that some parents of young children in my area are allowing the kids to run and bike all over the place, and many aren't respecting the 6 feet for the children at all. I keep retreating further but if I'm stuck on a path, hard to do. I go very early or late, or the conflicts would be more numerous I imagine.

It brings up how people parent differently. I taught my sons spatial awareness starting at the toddler stage. They didn't take up the whole sidewalk or wherever, but moved over or waited if the person was elderly, pregnant, trying to pass etc. These are valuable lessons to start early IMO, that you must consider others in life. My 2 cents for today.

 

[missy]

I am, and for the most part it's going well. Many keeping up their end of a respectable 6 feet or more. Many giving a friendly wave.

I notice that some parents of young children in my area are allowing the kids to run and bike all over the place, and many aren't respecting the 6 feet for the children at all. I keep retreating further but if I'm stuck on a path, hard to do. I go very early or late, or the conflicts would be more numerous I imagine.

It brings up how people parent differently. I taught my sons spatial awareness starting at the toddler stage. They didn't take up the whole sidewalk or wherever, but moved over or waited if the person was elderly, pregnant, trying to pass etc. These are valuable lessons to start early IMO, that you must consider others in life. My 2 cents for today.

Same with some kids and parents in our neighborhood. And what upsets me is that kids can be asymptomatic carriers more than adults iirc. So it’s a matter of safety and I wish these parents would stop their selfish behavior. Entitlement during a pandemic is more wrong than ever.

 

[OoohShiny]

Yes, most everyone will eventually get Covid 19 and as you write about 80% will be mild and 20% not mild and that includes patients in the severe to critical category. Those numbers in the severe to critical category are by no means small numbers. Of course YMMV but in my world when there are 200,000 deaths (as is being predicted by Dr. Fauci) that might potentially occur in NYC that is in no way, shape or form inconsequential or low mortality.

Those are real human beings. Flesh and blood. Who have loved ones and lives. Who deserve not to die. Who don't deserve to be trivialized in any way. Just because they are older? Or weaker? Are they less valuable to society? In your eyes? Not in mine.



The point is (as I see it) is to flatten that damn curve. As best we can. Because our hospitals are not able to deal with the number of cases should they keep rising at this rate. And people will die who could have been saved because of lack of ventilators, because of lack of proper healthcare. Because the system will be overwhelmed. *Unless* we flatten the curve.

And as for age groups and statistics most of my loved ones are over 60 including my dh. And that age is just an artificial number anyway. The chance increases but it doesn't magically go up from 59 to 60. It is just a range. There is no magic safe age and no magic dangerous age.

And for the record, I am not advocating as you write "that everyone should be extremely scared of Covid-19". I was just writing every single life matters IMHO and cross that damn street if someone is coming please. Because it isn't just you that you are protecting but everyone around you.

In a nutshell we should all remain vigilant because the life we could potentially save is a life that matters.

#giveadamn

JMO.

I am not saying that the older generation are in any way expendable or matter less than the younger generation - I do have my own relatives in the older age range that I am quite fond of!

I am also not saying that flu symptoms are the same as Covid19 symptoms, or that either is not serious for those people who catch them, especially those with underlying health conditions.

I am more attempting (but probably failing, lol) to point out the disconnect between the way society is treating Covid19 (shut everything down, put people out of jobs and, likely, their homes, in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus and manage demand for healthcare) and the way society treats seasonal flu (carry on as normal, seemingly accept that people will die, don't bother reporting widely that anything up to, what, 60k? people will pass on after catching it).

The older generation being important to society, surely we should also be implementing lockdowns (either generally or in a manner targeted at the older generation) in order to slow or prevent the spread of flu, flattening that curve, to reduce demand for healthcare and improve survival rates?

If the US ends up with three million or more extra people claiming unemployment benefit and, perhaps, left without somewhere to live because they can't pay their bills and there is no employment after businesses have shut down, the consequences of that may be just as severe as the outcomes of the disease itself. (As an example, the victims of Hurricane Katrina appear to have been completely abandoned by the US Government, from what I can tell.)


From what I, a non-expert, can tell, the current situation is not unprecedented in terms of infectiousness or scale (e.g. 1918 Winter Flu) but the interconnected global economy and focus on short-termism, debt-cycling and wealth creation means the Governments of the world are between a rock and a hard place - annihilate the economy totally but extend the lives of as many people as possible, or let nature take its course unimpeded, keeping the economy going but letting 'the weakest' lose the battle of 'survival of the fittest'.

To a certain extent, the Governments might be trying to do something in the middle but nearer to the former, but they are limited in their capacity to do so because healthcare services simply are not set up for such a (hopefully) once-in-a-generation event. Having massive hospitals and associated healthcare kit mothballed and ready-to-go at short notice simply isn't viable - technology moves on quickly so anything installed may be unsuitable by the time it is needed, buildings cost money to maintain, having 'reservists' trained in the latest procedures and on standby is difficult and expensive...


As a novel virus, we as a race have no immunity to it at this moment in time. The numbers of recorded infections are high and rising rapidly because of it, but it's likely the numbers of unrecorded infections (and therefore subsequent immunity) are much higher. I am hopeful that we will have 'herd immunity' by this time next year, and the initial peak in healthcare demand we are seeing now will have passed, so I think it is likely that Covid19 will just be another illness in the wide range of illnesses that we might get from year to year, which will only have potentially very bad consequences for a very small number of those people, as with flu.


I don't know... this is a difficult situation for all those involved and for those we have put in power to deal with such things - the actions taken now and the figures we are seeing will no doubt be discussed and analysed for years to come. I'm not confident that we'll have suitable capacity/facilities in place for if (when...) it happens again, simply because (for the reasons mentioned above) it is not a viable proposition. I think it more likely that increasingly draconian restrictions and punishments will be implemented, and we as society will need to work out where we stand on balancing the rights of freedom and movement, that we have fought hard for over hundreds of years, with a desire to extend life to the fullest extent.


[/thinking sort of out loud]


I would wish that all of us can come out the other side of this initial surge in infections intact and with no loss to those around us, but we must also be realistic Nature has its ways of keeping balances and checks across the world - this is just one of those, and I think we have to accept that we cannot always win over nature. Our lives matter to each other, but our lives matter not to Nature. Individually we are all people, but in the big picture, we are all just statistics!


EDIT: Oh, and you don't look your age!

 

[missy]

I am not saying that the older generation are in any way expendable or matter less than the younger generation - I do have my own relatives in the older age range that I am quite fond of!

I am also not saying that flu symptoms are the same as Covid19 symptoms, or that either is not serious for those people who catch them, especially those with underlying health conditions.

I am more attempting (but probably failing, lol) to point out the disconnect between the way society is treating Covid19 (shut everything down, put people out of jobs and, likely, their homes, in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus and manage demand for healthcare) and the way society treats seasonal flu (carry on as normal, seemingly accept that people will die, don't bother reporting widely that anything up to, what, 60k? people will pass on after catching it).

The older generation being important to society, surely we should also be implementing lockdowns (either generally or in a manner targeted at the older generation) in order to slow or prevent the spread of flu, flattening that curve, to reduce demand for healthcare and improve survival rates?

If the US ends up with three million or more extra people claiming unemployment benefit and, perhaps, left without somewhere to live because they can't pay their bills and there is no employment after businesses have shut down, the consequences of that may be just as severe as the outcomes of the disease itself. (As an example, the victims of Hurricane Katrina appear to have been completely abandoned by the US Government, from what I can tell.)


From what I, a non-expert, can tell, the current situation is not unprecedented in terms of infectiousness or scale (e.g. 1918 Winter Flu) but the interconnected global economy and focus on short-termism, debt-cycling and wealth creation means the Governments of the world are between a rock and a hard place - annihilate the economy totally but extend the lives of as many people as possible, or let nature take its course unimpeded, keeping the economy going but letting 'the weakest' lose the battle of 'survival of the fittest'.

To a certain extent, the Governments might be trying to do something in the middle but nearer to the former, but they are limited in their capacity to do so because healthcare services simply are not set up for such a (hopefully) once-in-a-generation event. Having massive hospitals and associated healthcare kit mothballed and ready-to-go at short notice simply isn't viable - technology moves on quickly so anything installed may be unsuitable by the time it is needed, buildings cost money to maintain, having 'reservists' trained in the latest procedures and on standby is difficult and expensive...


As a novel virus, we as a race have no immunity to it at this moment in time. The numbers of recorded infections are high and rising rapidly because of it, but it's likely the numbers of unrecorded infections (and therefore subsequent immunity) are much higher. I am hopeful that we will have 'herd immunity' by this time next year, and the initial peak in healthcare demand we are seeing now will have passed, so I think it is likely that Covid19 will just be another illness in the wide range of illnesses that we might get from year to year, which only has potentially bad consequences for a very small number of those people.


I don't know... this is a difficult situation for all those involved and for those we have put in power to deal with such things - the actions taken now and the figures we are seeing will no doubt be discussed and analysed for years to come. I'm not confident that we'll have suitable capacity/facilities in place for if (when...) it happens again, simply because (for the reasons mentioned above) it is not a viable proposition. I think it more likely that increasingly draconian restrictions and punishments will be implemented, and we as society will need to work out where we stand on balancing the rights of freedom and movement, that we have fought hard for over hundreds of years, with a desire to extend life to the fullest extent.


[/thinking sort of out loud]


I would wish that all of us can come out the other side of this initial surge in infections intact and with no loss to those around us, but we must also be realistic Nature has its ways of keeping balances and checks across the world - this is just one of those, and I think we have to accept that we cannot always win over nature. Our lives matter to each other, but our lives matter not to Nature. Individually we are all people, but in the big picture, we are all just statistics!

Hi @OoohShiny I’m in the middle of working out now and I’m also exhausted emotionally and physically but I will try returning later to thoughtfully reply if I’m up to it. In the meantime here’s an interesting read on herd immunity. Be well.

Here's Why Herd Immunity Won't Save Us From The COVID-19 Pandemic

It's hard to predict things in a pandemic. The situation changes so much on a daily basis that everything you thought you knew last week is wrong by the end of the day. Things are changing so fast that even the solid certainties that we thought we we

www.sciencealert.com

 

[Jimmianne]

Ha ha.....have no idea what I did....but those are good old upside down ca poppies

Upsidedown poppies are the best!

I’m about to go out for yet another walk, making myself stay active. Every day I feel a little lazier mentally and the fact that it doesn’t bother me...is bothering me lol
Normally I go crazy if I don’t accomplish something fairly significant every day. The fact that I can just sit here all day every day is not great.
Ya know, bragging at the end of the day that you’ve washed your hair just doesn’t cut it. Although, under the circumstances maybe it deserves a gold medal!
We are in lockdown too long to not have a plan for mental health

Now to go out and find at least five beautiful things to photograph. if I can just get off the couch............

 

[OoohShiny]

Hi @OoohShiny I’m in the middle of working out now and I’m also exhausted emotionally and physically but I will try returning later to thoughtfully reply if I’m up to it. In the meantime here’s an interesting read on herd immunity. Be well.

Here's Why Herd Immunity Won't Save Us From The COVID-19 Pandemic

It's hard to predict things in a pandemic. The situation changes so much on a daily basis that everything you thought you knew last week is wrong by the end of the day. Things are changing so fast that even the solid certainties that we thought we we

www.sciencealert.com

Have fun working out! Do some for me, I am so unfit at the moment... lol

Thank you for the reading! The link in it through to the (recorded) Case Fatality Rates and (recorded + unrecorded) Infection Fatality Rates is interesting (my emphases added):

Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates - CEBM

The total number of cases and the total number of deaths from COVID-19 outbreak data was drawn down (scraped) from Worldometers.

www.cebm.net

We could make a simple estimation of the IFR as 0.26%, based on halving the lowest boundary of the CFR prediction interval. However, the considerable uncertainty over how many people have the disease means an IFR of 0.26 is likely an overestimate. In Swine flu, the IFR ended up as 0.02%, fivefold less than the lowest estimate during the outbreak (the lowest estimate was 0.1% in the 1st ten weeks of the outbreak). In Iceland, where the most testing per capita has occurred, the IFR lies between. 0.01% and 0.19%.

Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR between 0.1% and 0.26%.*

*Demographic changes in the population could vary the IFR. In younger populations, the IFR will be lower. Comorbidities will have a significant impact to increase the IFR: those with ≥ 3 comorbidities are at much higher risk. Modelling the data on the prevalence of comorbidities is essential to understand the CFR and IFR by age (the prevalence of comorbidities is highly age-dependent and is higher in socially deprived populations). It is also not clear if the presence of other circulating influenza illnesses acts to increase the IFR (testing for co-pathogens is not occurring). And whether certain populations (e.g., those with heart conditions) are more at risk.

In those without pre-existing health conditions, and over 70, the data is reassuring that the IFR will likely not exceed 1%.
Mortality in children seems to be near zero (unlike flu) which is also reassuring and will act to drive down the IFR significantly.
It is now essential to understand whether individuals are dying with or from the disease. Understanding this issue is critical. If, for instance, 80% of those over 80 die with the disease then the CFR would be near 3% in this age group as opposed to 15%. Cause of death information from death certificates is often inaccurate and incomplete, particularly for conditions such as pneumonia. These factors would act to lower the IFR.

Antibody testing will provide an accurate understanding of how many people have been infected so far, and permit a more accurate estimate of the IFR.

The distinction between dying with Covid19 and dying from is important, but it is also fair to say that dead is dead...

 

[missy]

Upsidedown poppies are the best!

I’m about to go out for yet another walk, making myself stay active. Every day I feel a little lazier mentally and the fact that it doesn’t bother me...is bothering me lol
Normally I go crazy if I don’t accomplish something fairly significant every day. The fact that I can just sit here all day every day is not great.
Ya know, bragging at the end of the day that you’ve washed your hair just doesn’t cut it. Although, under the circumstances maybe it deserves a gold medal!
We are in lockdown too long to not have a plan for mental health

Now to go out and find at least five beautiful things to photograph. if I can just get off the couch............

There’s only one thing better than upside down poppies. And that’s upside down puppies.

 

[missy]

Have fun working out! Do some for me, I am so unfit at the moment... lol

Thank you for the reading! The link in it through to the (recorded) Case Fatality Rates and (recorded + unrecorded) Infection Fatality Rates is interesting (my emphases added):

Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates - CEBM

The total number of cases and the total number of deaths from COVID-19 outbreak data was drawn down (scraped) from Worldometers.

www.cebm.net

The distinction between dying with Covid19 and dying from is important, but it is also fair to say that dead is dead...

I will, thanks. I am sweating up a storm right now and I love sweating when I’m working out. Makes me feel like I’m detoxifying and it is also reinvigorating.

And yup. Dead is dead.

 

[Loves Vintage]

We have been hiking around our house, but avoiding the streets. I live in a nature preserve/ hoa community. We have trials and creeks and a lake to explore. Luckily the ones nearest to my home are not as popular. I live in the northernest part of the Ca central coast, about 35 minutes from the ocean. A few days ago I took the kids for a drive to Morro Bay to maybe get their feet wet depending on how crowded it was. But the parking was closed off so we just drove around with the windows down and took in the crisp ocean air. Though it was nice to get out, since we have been home since the 13th, I decided we won't be taking any more trips any time soon.

Wow! Ok, I officially want to live there!!!

 

[Diamond_Hawk]

My neighborhood looks something out of the mid 20th-century between 5-7pm. Neighbors I've never seen before, courteous smiles and waves - good social distancing. It makes me realize that our busy lives have kept us from having the sense of community that was once so strong in our individual neighborhoods. I think I will miss this aspect of life as things return to 'normal.' There seems to be a lot of nice people around that I might really enjoy knowing.

 

[chrono]

You guys are happy to see people. I'm trying to avoid eye contact and even waving because yes, I'm that much of an introvert. At least the neighbours will no longer try to approach me to start a conversation now.

 

[Bayek]

Hubster and I and our baby pup Salley are taking 2 daily walks, we are not in total lockdown here in North of Austin TEXAS, we have to stay 6 feet from each other that is all for now.. non essential businesses are shut down.

 

[ChickityChicken]

Hubster and I and our baby pup Salley are taking 2 daily walks, we are not in total lockdown here in North of Austin TEXAS, we have to stay 6 feet from each other that is all for now.. non essential businesses are shut down.

Can we see a photo of your baby pup?

 

[chrono]

@Tekate and all those with pets, please post lots of qt-pie pictures in the pet thread. Those who actively avoid the Covid-19 threads will see it and maybe the pet thread will be more visible that way too.

Random pictures/stories of our furbabies - by JayEl1414

I know there's a couple of show me your dog and cats or animals threads. But I wanted to make one where people can randomly or continuously show us their furbabies. Or tell us about something funny or crazy they did! Like Cygnet's little puppy video where he got ahold of his tail! I did a...

www.pricescope.com

 

[Mamabean]

Yes, most everyone will eventually get Covid 19 and as you write about 80% will be mild and 20% not mild and that includes patients in the severe to critical category. Those numbers in the severe to critical category are by no means small numbers. Of course YMMV but in my world when there are 200,000 deaths (as is being predicted by Dr. Fauci) that might potentially occur in NYC that is in no way, shape or form inconsequential or low mortality.

Those are real human beings. Flesh and blood. Who have loved ones and lives. Who deserve not to die. Who don't deserve to be trivialized in any way. Just because they are older? Or weaker? Are they less valuable to society? In your eyes? Not in mine.



The point is (as I see it) is to flatten that damn curve. As best we can. Because our hospitals are not able to deal with the number of cases should they keep rising at this rate. And people will die who could have been saved because of lack of ventilators, because of lack of proper healthcare. Because the system will be overwhelmed. *Unless* we flatten the curve.

And as for age groups and statistics most of my loved ones are over 60 including my dh. And that age is just an artificial number anyway. The chance increases but it doesn't magically go up from 59 to 60. It is just a range. There is no magic safe age and no magic dangerous age.

And for the record, I am not advocating as you write "that everyone should be extremely scared of Covid-19". I was just writing every single life matters IMHO and cross that damn street if someone is coming please. Because it isn't just you that you are protecting but everyone around you.

In a nutshell we should all remain vigilant because the life we could potentially save is a life that matters.

#giveadamn

JMO.

What she said...

 

[Demon]

You guys are happy to see people. I'm trying to avoid eye contact and even waving because yes, I'm that much of an introvert. At least the neighbours will no longer try to approach me to start a conversation now.

Glad I'm not alone in that. I am glad I'm alone.

 

[MakingTheGrade]

Sigh. I’m going to have to start calling for safety walking escorts when I go to work. Somebody decided to throw something at me the other day while yelling random racial nonsense. Great. So much for enjoying walks.

Also many of my Asian Americans are apparently into buying guns now. I have mace and that’s about as armed as I’m prepared to get.

 

[bling_dream19]

Sigh. I’m going to have to start calling for safety walking escorts when I go to work. Somebody decided to throw something at me the other day while yelling random racial nonsense. Great. So much for enjoying walks.

Also many of my Asian Americans are apparently into buying guns now. I have mace and that’s about as armed as I’m prepared to get.

That's just awful. I am so sorry. I don't even understand how another person could do that.

 

[missy]

Ugh, I hate that you have to deal with that @MakingTheGrade
Please do have security walk you to work if you can...please stay safe.

That's just awful. I am so sorry. I don't even understand how another person could do that.

Yeah hard to fathom. Some people are too stupid beyond all comprehension.

 

[lissyflo]

I am not saying that the older generation are in any way expendable or matter less than the younger generation - I do have my own relatives in the older age range that I am quite fond of!

I am also not saying that flu symptoms are the same as Covid19 symptoms, or that either is not serious for those people who catch them, especially those with underlying health conditions.

I am more attempting (but probably failing, lol) to point out the disconnect between the way society is treating Covid19 (shut everything down, put people out of jobs and, likely, their homes, in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus and manage demand for healthcare) and the way society treats seasonal flu (carry on as normal, seemingly accept that people will die, don't bother reporting widely that anything up to, what, 60k? people will pass on after catching it).

The older generation being important to society, surely we should also be implementing lockdowns (either generally or in a manner targeted at the older generation) in order to slow or prevent the spread of flu, flattening that curve, to reduce demand for healthcare and improve survival rates?

If the US ends up with three million or more extra people claiming unemployment benefit and, perhaps, left without somewhere to live because they can't pay their bills and there is no employment after businesses have shut down, the consequences of that may be just as severe as the outcomes of the disease itself. (As an example, the victims of Hurricane Katrina appear to have been completely abandoned by the US Government, from what I can tell.)


From what I, a non-expert, can tell, the current situation is not unprecedented in terms of infectiousness or scale (e.g. 1918 Winter Flu) but the interconnected global economy and focus on short-termism, debt-cycling and wealth creation means the Governments of the world are between a rock and a hard place - annihilate the economy totally but extend the lives of as many people as possible, or let nature take its course unimpeded, keeping the economy going but letting 'the weakest' lose the battle of 'survival of the fittest'.

To a certain extent, the Governments might be trying to do something in the middle but nearer to the former, but they are limited in their capacity to do so because healthcare services simply are not set up for such a (hopefully) once-in-a-generation event. Having massive hospitals and associated healthcare kit mothballed and ready-to-go at short notice simply isn't viable - technology moves on quickly so anything installed may be unsuitable by the time it is needed, buildings cost money to maintain, having 'reservists' trained in the latest procedures and on standby is difficult and expensive...


As a novel virus, we as a race have no immunity to it at this moment in time. The numbers of recorded infections are high and rising rapidly because of it, but it's likely the numbers of unrecorded infections (and therefore subsequent immunity) are much higher. I am hopeful that we will have 'herd immunity' by this time next year, and the initial peak in healthcare demand we are seeing now will have passed, so I think it is likely that Covid19 will just be another illness in the wide range of illnesses that we might get from year to year, which will only have potentially very bad consequences for a very small number of those people, as with flu.


I don't know... this is a difficult situation for all those involved and for those we have put in power to deal with such things - the actions taken now and the figures we are seeing will no doubt be discussed and analysed for years to come. I'm not confident that we'll have suitable capacity/facilities in place for if (when...) it happens again, simply because (for the reasons mentioned above) it is not a viable proposition. I think it more likely that increasingly draconian restrictions and punishments will be implemented, and we as society will need to work out where we stand on balancing the rights of freedom and movement, that we have fought hard for over hundreds of years, with a desire to extend life to the fullest extent.


[/thinking sort of out loud]


I would wish that all of us can come out the other side of this initial surge in infections intact and with no loss to those around us, but we must also be realistic Nature has its ways of keeping balances and checks across the world - this is just one of those, and I think we have to accept that we cannot always win over nature. Our lives matter to each other, but our lives matter not to Nature. Individually we are all people, but in the big picture, we are all just statistics!


EDIT: Oh, and you don't look your age!

I think the difference between this and normal flu is the healthcare stressor. Normal flu doesn’t have the potential to put 15% of the global population in hospital at the same time and a further 5% in intensive care. The lives of everyone matter and yes especially the elderly can still die of flu, but a crisis of the current magnitude needs/deserves/requires special measures that normal flu doesn’t.

I appreciate the economic impact of the shut downs but consider the alternatives: if life had carried on in some semblance of normality, without global lockdowns, at least 20% of doctors and nurses would be ill and not working at a time when most needed; people would literally be piling up outside hospital doors; countless deaths but no funeral staff to manage them etc etc. Governments would lose any semblance of seeming in control and society could very easily fracture - riots in the streets, loss of law and order. I’m more than happy to ‘lose’ temporarily some civil liberties to avoid complete anarchy and to save lives.

Yes, I think there will come a time when restrictions are eased (in the absence of a vaccine), with a view to letting the virus take hold a little at a time so that illness rates can be managed in the healthcare system. We can’t stay in global lockdown for months on end and pools of the virus will stay active somewhere on the planet. But I’m more than happy to restrict my activities temporarily, to give government time to plan and manage the current situation. I appreciate I say that as someone with a reasonably secure family income (for now at least), but I do think the UK government have done well and promised support for both employed and self-employed as far as reasonably practical. How on earth they manage funding for bailing out airlines, charities, failed businesses moving forwards I have no idea - significant tax rises I guess and I read about a national emergency fund that we’ve never been in bad enough shape to qualify for use of before?