- Joined
- Aug 16, 2007
- Messages
- 5,758
Stay safe fellow NYC/Long Island folks!
METEOROPOULOS UPDATE: Sunday, 1/25/15 12:12PM
*** BLIZZARD WATCHES POSTED FOR NYC METRO ***
*** ACCUMULATIONS OF 18-24"+ FOR NYC METRO ***
*** COMPUTER MODELS ALL SHOW A BIG HIT NOW ***
*** TIGHT GRADIENT LEAVES LITTLE ROOM FOR ERROR ***
*** ANOTHER TWO STORMS FOR FRIDAY & NEXT WEEK ***
TIMING: Begins with light snow here and there on Monday during the day from a passing front, then the heavy stuff comes in Monday evening and continues well into Tuesday and Tuesday night. I will fine tune these estimated times later tonight.
BLIZZARD WATCHES:
The NWS has issued Blizzard Watches for the NYC, all of Long Island, Coastal New Jersey and Connecticut and the immediate Hudson Valley. Expect upgrades to Blizzard Warnings later this afternoon. Expect very heavy snows and high winds (40-50MPH gusts in NYC, 50-60 eastern LI) throughout the entire NYC Metro area. Temperatures will be in the upper teens to lower 20's during the height of the storm, so no mixing. This is an ALL SNOW EVENT.
ACCUMULATIONS:
I will post a full and detailed snowfall forecast this evening, but expect the NYC Metro area to get dumped with a general 18-24", with possibly MORE for eastern Long Island and LESS for north-western New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania. BUT we will have to see where the mesoscale banding sets up that could potentially dump huge totals very rapidly. THIS feature in any big and powerful storm is really only determined as the snow is falling and where and when these intense bands occur. Back in 2006, we broke NYC's all-time snowfall record for one storm with 27" when one of these mesoscale bands setup up right over us, dumping snow at rates of 3-4" per hour that morning! THIS will determine who get the highest snowfall totals. We shall see as the storm gets going where these set up shop.
COMPUTER MODELS:
Computer models went nuts agin last night with the EURO continuing it's attack on obscene amounts of snow for our area, and other models also showing a big hit. Even the NAM that was stubborn by keeping the storm too far east for us to get big snows - made a complete 180 degree turn (I expected this since it is a bad model over 36 hours) and in the past hour, jumped onboard with 2 foot totals for NYC as well! The 12z GFS backed off a bit (although still a big hit), but meteorologists are saying it sampled incorrectly. Long story short, the models are all onboard for a big event in varying intensities, which is great news if you love snow.
METEOROPOULOS UPDATE: Sunday, 1/25/15 12:12PM
*** BLIZZARD WATCHES POSTED FOR NYC METRO ***
*** ACCUMULATIONS OF 18-24"+ FOR NYC METRO ***
*** COMPUTER MODELS ALL SHOW A BIG HIT NOW ***
*** TIGHT GRADIENT LEAVES LITTLE ROOM FOR ERROR ***
*** ANOTHER TWO STORMS FOR FRIDAY & NEXT WEEK ***
TIMING: Begins with light snow here and there on Monday during the day from a passing front, then the heavy stuff comes in Monday evening and continues well into Tuesday and Tuesday night. I will fine tune these estimated times later tonight.
BLIZZARD WATCHES:
The NWS has issued Blizzard Watches for the NYC, all of Long Island, Coastal New Jersey and Connecticut and the immediate Hudson Valley. Expect upgrades to Blizzard Warnings later this afternoon. Expect very heavy snows and high winds (40-50MPH gusts in NYC, 50-60 eastern LI) throughout the entire NYC Metro area. Temperatures will be in the upper teens to lower 20's during the height of the storm, so no mixing. This is an ALL SNOW EVENT.
ACCUMULATIONS:
I will post a full and detailed snowfall forecast this evening, but expect the NYC Metro area to get dumped with a general 18-24", with possibly MORE for eastern Long Island and LESS for north-western New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania. BUT we will have to see where the mesoscale banding sets up that could potentially dump huge totals very rapidly. THIS feature in any big and powerful storm is really only determined as the snow is falling and where and when these intense bands occur. Back in 2006, we broke NYC's all-time snowfall record for one storm with 27" when one of these mesoscale bands setup up right over us, dumping snow at rates of 3-4" per hour that morning! THIS will determine who get the highest snowfall totals. We shall see as the storm gets going where these set up shop.
COMPUTER MODELS:
Computer models went nuts agin last night with the EURO continuing it's attack on obscene amounts of snow for our area, and other models also showing a big hit. Even the NAM that was stubborn by keeping the storm too far east for us to get big snows - made a complete 180 degree turn (I expected this since it is a bad model over 36 hours) and in the past hour, jumped onboard with 2 foot totals for NYC as well! The 12z GFS backed off a bit (although still a big hit), but meteorologists are saying it sampled incorrectly. Long story short, the models are all onboard for a big event in varying intensities, which is great news if you love snow.