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The newer mutated C19 virus is 10 times more infectious

missy

Super_Ideal_Rock
Premium
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Jun 8, 2008
Messages
36,419
I read that too. It’s growing in number fast. :/
It could have been controlled- just look at other countries- but no. USA people need their freedom and that “trumps” everything and everyone else.




“ Coronavirus cases in the U.S. rose to another single-day high as the nation entered a Fourth of July weekend marked by restrictions on many activities and warnings to maintain social-distancing practices.

The U.S. reported a record 52,291 new cases on Thursday, about 1,000 more than the previous day, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The U.S. is the worst-hit nation globally and accounts for about a quarter of the more than 11 million coronavirus cases world-wide, according to Johns Hopkins.

The rise in cases has led state and local leaders to pause reopening plans and shift policies.

In Washington state, Gov. Jay Inslee said he would pause a phased reopening for all counties for two weeks. He also announced a statewide directive for businesses to require face coverings of all employees and customers.

The better we can protect ourselves from the virus, the better we can avoid repeating some of the painful measures we had to take in the spring to shut down the economy,” Mr. Inslee said.

In Texas, where cases have been rising for weeks, Gov. Greg Abbott changed course on Thursday, issuing an executive order mandating that residents wear masks when out in public. Other states, including Pennsylvania, Oregon and California, have also implemented statewide mask requirements in recent weeks. The Cincinnati city council passed an ordinance Friday making wearing a mask mandatory in public places starting July 9.

Government leaders across the country have urged people to use caution in their Fourth of July celebrations.

“As we begin the holiday weekend, please remember to celebrate responsibly,” North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper wrote on Twitter Friday, as the state reported 2,099 new cases.

In New York, the annual Macy’s Inc. fireworks show was taking place as five-minute displays throughout the week in unannounced locations to prevent viewers from congregating. Los Angeles County and San Francisco have canceled fireworks shows, citing health concerns, while other places have moved festivities online.


President Trump addressed a crowd, with Mt. Rushmore in the background, on Friday night in South Dakota.
PHOTO: ALEX BRANDON/ASSOCIATED PRESS
At Mt. Rushmore, a visit by President Trump was to be accompanied by a fireworks display. The event, expected to draw 7,500 people, has raised concerns about social distancing and wildfire risks.

Ahead of the Mt. Rushmore event, Kimberly Guilfoyle, a top campaign aide and the girlfriend of Donald Trump Jr., tested positive for the virus in South Dakota, said a person familiar with the events. Mr. Trump Jr., who tested negative, and Ms. Guilfoyle didn’t travel with the president to the state and weren’t with him before the festivities. The couple, who had been headlining fundraisers in the region, were expected to drive back to the East Coast to avoid contact with others.

Beaches in parts of Southern California will be closed, including those in Los Angeles and Ventura counties and parts of Orange County. Beach closures have also hit Miami and other South Florida counties, several weeks after reopening.

The mayor of Miami-Dade County, Carlos Gimenez, also ordered a countywide curfew from 10 p.m. until 6 a.m. and rolled back the reopening of several types of entertainment venues, including movie theaters, strip clubs and bowling alleys.

In the New York City area, residents appeared to have abided by suggestions from health officials to stay away from beaches, with crowds at many places along the Jersey Shore, in Coney Island and in the Hamptons far sparser than normal for the beginning of July 4 weekend.

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Meanwhile, more local governments are asking people who have traveled to states with surges in coronavirus cases to quarantine for 14 days upon return.

Chicago issued an emergency travel order requiring all visitors from 15 states to quarantine starting on Monday. Pennsylvania state officials issued a similar travel advisory.


The governor of the Mexican state of Sonora announced that the border with Arizona would be closed for the holiday weekend to nonessential travelers due to the sharp rise in cases there.

In some states, hospitalizations have been rising sharply. In Arizona, 91% of all intensive-care unit beds and 85% of all hospital beds in the state were in use on Friday, according to the state health department. In Florida, 81% of the state’s available intensive-care beds and 71% of all its hospital beds were occupied, state government statistics show. By contrast, in Massachusetts, where cases have been on the decline, only 66% of all hospital beds were being used on Friday.

Health officials look at a variety of metrics, including new cases, percent of positive test results, hospitalizations and deaths to gauge an area’s level of spread.

Infectious disease epidemiologists caution that deaths typically lag behind other indicators, as the disease often progresses over the course of weeks in the most severe cases. And many public-health experts have warned that reported totals in countries including the U.S. and China have been broadly undercounted.

The U.S. has the highest number of fatalities in the world, with more than 129,000, according to data from Johns Hopkins. The U.S. currently has 39 deaths per 100,000 residents, which places it among the top 10 countries in the world in that metric.

However, the U.S. it doesn’t have the highest percentage of fatal cases —currently at about 4.7%, according to data from the COVID Tracking Project. And the case-fatality count in the U.S. has dropped a bit, from about 5.1%, over the past two weeks.

Coronavirus cases also are surging in Latin America.


Coffins stacked Friday at the Rio Pax funeral company storage in Rio de Janeiro.
PHOTO: PILAR OLIVARES/REUTERS
Brazil continues to record by far the highest daily death tolls, with another 1,290 deaths registered Friday. That brings the country’s total tally to 63,124 deaths. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who has played down the risks of the virus, signed into law a decree mandating that face masks be worn in public. But he vetoed a part of the bill that would have required masks in churches, schools and businesses.

The dramatic jump in U.S. cases has caught the attention of Mexican officials. Claudia Pavlovich, the governor of the Mexican state of Sonora, which sits across the border from Arizona, said her state would set up “sanitary filters” to block all nonessential travel into Mexico this holiday weekend. The state’s beaches, popular with Arizona tourists, would stay closed to dissuade travel, she said.


Mexico itself likely has more than 50,000 deaths from the pandemic, according to data collected by a government population agency that reviewed death certificates across the country.

The virus continues to spread rapidly in Chile, one of the hardest hit countries in Latin America. The country has reported 288,089 cases and 6,051 deaths from Covid-19.

Peru reported 181 deaths from Covid-19 over the past 24 hours, bringing the total confirmed deaths to 10,226. Peru continues to struggle to control the pandemic as it approaches 300,000 cases, second in Latin America after Brazil. Health experts expect little chance the situation will improve as the government this week lifted a lockdown for most of the country, hoping to restart an economy in crisis.

In Colombia, where total confirmed cases have risen to nearly 110,000, a tax-free shopping day designed to help jump-start the economy was limited to online-only purchases. During a similar event last month, shoppers looking to avoid the country’s steep 19% sales tax swamped stores. Health officials criticized the government because the packed stores were seen as super-spreader events.

In India, new cases rose by 20,903, a single-day record, raising the total tally of infections to 625,544, according to data from the Health Ministry. India has so far reported a total of 18,213 deaths. As cases continue to rise, the government has extended lockdowns in areas with high caseloads through July.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced new restrictions late Thursday, including a limit of 20 people inside houses and in most closed spaces, and up to 50 people at synagogues, event halls, bars and clubs. He said there had been a 50% rise in serious coronavirus cases since the start of the week.

On Friday, South Korea reported 63 new cases as infections linked to clusters outside the Seoul metropolitan area increased. About 50 cases have been linked to a Buddhist temple in Gwangju, a city about 200 miles from Seoul.

“We have not seen a mass spread of infections, but we are approaching a dangerous degree of risk,” South Korea’s vice health minister, Kim Gang-lip, said.

In Japan, the capital city of Tokyo has seen a resurgence of cases in recent days. On Friday, city officials confirmed 124 new cases, hitting triple digits for the second straight day in about two months. Many of the cases involve people in their 20s or 30s and are linked to nighttime entertainment areas where aggressive testing has been conducted recently, contributing to the rise in positive tests, according to the Tokyo government.

While daily new cases in European nations are still generally higher than in many Asian countries, numbering in the mid- to high hundreds, they have mostly fallen or plateaued in recent weeks, barring isolated or temporary upticks in Germany and Portugal.“
 

OoohShiny

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Full version of the original article:


Worth noting that:

"However, this improved spike strength did not seem to be making people any sicker - or any less sick.

This, they suggested, could be because the spike had nothing to do with the virus's ability to reproduce - to replicate - once it was inside the body.

...

Dr Choe's study added: 'An interesting question is why viruses carrying the more stable SG614 appear to be more transmissible without resulting in a major observable difference in disease severity.

'It is possible that higher levels of functional S protein observed with SG614 increase the chance of host-to-host transmission, but that other factors limit the rate and efficiency of intra-host replication.'

The paper was published online on bioRxiv without being reviewed by independent scientists.
"
 

missy

Super_Ideal_Rock
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Jun 8, 2008
Messages
36,419
An article from the NYT. I copied and pasted for those who don’t have a subscription and are interested in reading this. FYI



“ The first wave of the coronavirus outbreak in the United States never really ended, and cases are surging again. But this time, a different and much bigger swath of the country is feeling the effects.



April 4
35,099
new cases
1
2
5
10
Cases per
1,000 people
March 1
July 1
New York City and suburbs
Wash.
Maine
Mont.
N.D.
Vt.
Minn.
Ore.
N.H.
Idaho
Wis.
N.Y.
S.D.
Mass.
Mich.
Conn.
Wyo.
Resort towns in the West
R.I.
Pa.
Iowa
N.J.
Nev.
Calif.
Neb.
Ohio
Del.
Md.
Utah
Ind.
Ill.
W.Va.
Colo.
Va.
Kan.
Mo.
Ky.
N.C.
Tenn.
Okla.
Ariz.
Ark.
S.C.
N.M.
Ga.
Ala.
Miss.
Southwest
Georgia
La.
Texas
Alaska
Fla.
Southeast
Louisiana
Hawaii
July 1
49,932
new cases
March 1
July 1
Wash.
Maine
Mont.
N.D.
Vt.
Minn.
Ore.
N.H.
Idaho
Wis.
N.Y.
S.D.
Mass.
Mich.
Conn.
Wyo.
R.I.
Pa.
Iowa
N.J.
Neb.
Ohio
Del.
Md.
Nev.
Utah
Ind.
Ill.
W.Va.
Colo.
Va.
Kan.
Mo.
Ky.
Calif.
N.C.
Tenn.
Okla.
Ariz.
Ark.
S.C.
N.M.
Ga.
Ala.
Miss.
La.
Texas
Alaska
Fla.
Hawaii
Note: Symbol sizes are based on the number of people per 1,000 who have tested positive or have a probable case of the coronavirus in each county or parish in the preceding two weeks, which may differ from where they contracted the illness. Symbols are not shown for places with fewer than one case per 1,000 people.
The first peak came at the beginning of April: About 30,000 cases were reported per day, but the biggest hotspots were concentrated in just a few regions. With the right steps, public health experts said, there was still a chance the outbreak could be contained.

That didn’t happen, and new infections in the United States plateaued before roaring back again in late June as the virus spread to the rest of the country. Daily case counts are well above 30,000 now, and nearly 10 times as many counties are hotspots — where at least one person per thousand was diagnosed in the last two weeks — making the prospect of containment all the more unlikely.

Where the virus was on July 1

1
2
5
10
Cases per 1,000
Note: Cases shown for a given date are those reported in preceding two weeks.
Some rural counties in the South, West and Midwest, where the virus seemed like a distant threat just two months ago, are seeing hospitals approach capacity for the first time.

The numbers of new cases in some Florida counties, including Miami-Dade and Duval, have more than tripled in the past two weeks. In Texas, more than 6,000 new cases are diagnosed every day. Hospitals in Houston are so full that patients are being transferred to other cities.



South
20,000 cases
10,000
0
March 1
July 1
West
20,000 cases
10,000
0
March 1
July 1
Northeast
20,000 cases
10,000
0
March 1
July 1
Midwest
20,000 cases
10,000
0
March 1
July 1
Note: Seven-day averages. Sources: State and local health agencies and hospitals
In New York City, meanwhile, overwhelmed hospitals saw a drop in coronavirus patients in May so sharp it was “like someone turned off the hose,” and new infections have stayed low.

The geographic shift of the outbreak also means new groups are now experiencing its effects.



Where new cases have been reported
By density
Counties outside large metros
Counties in large metro areas
20,000 cases
10,000
0
March 1
July 1
March 1
July 1
By race and ethnicity
Counties that are less white
Counties that are whiter than avg.
20,000 cases
10,000
0
March 1
July 1
March 1
July 1
By 2016 vote
Counties Donald Trump won
Counties Hillary Clinton won
20,000 cases
10,000
0
March 1
July 1
March 1
July 1
Note: Seven-day averages. Large metros are defined as those with more than one million residents. Sources: State and local health agencies and hospitals, 2018 American Community Survey five-year estimates, U.S.D.A. Rural-Urban Continuum Codes.
In early April, most new cases were in large metro areas. The New York City area had almost half of all new cases some days. Other early outbreaks hit New Orleans and Detroit. But the current surge in cases has swept across more rural and suburban parts of the country, leaving few counties untouched in much of the South.

Some demographic trends remain the same, even as the virus spreads. People of color have disproportionately borne the brunt from the beginning, and the latest spike is no different. Among the areas currently seeing a rapid increase in cases are majority-Hispanic counties along the Southern border, Native American reservations in the Southwest, and majority-Black counties in the Southeast.

But the political geography has clearly changed: Many counties where Donald Trump won in 2016 are being hit for the first time. Following months during which decisions to lock down and reopen states often fell along party lines, and wearing a face mask became politicized, some Republican governors have abruptly begun imploring residents to wear masks.

The rapid spread of the virus in regions that had previously avoided much of its impact has caused some state and local governments to reverse plans to reopen.

Gov. Doug Ducey of Arizona ordered bars, gyms and other businesses in the state to close for 30 days. The governors of Florida, Texas and California also reimposed restrictions on bars and other businesses after a sharp rise in cases. Even in New York City, where the reopening time frame has been more cautious, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced that plans to allow indoor seating at restaurants would be delayed indefinitely.
 

AprilBaby

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I feel like I havnt been outside my house in years.
 

asscherisme

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I am TERRIFIED that my 18 year old is due to go off to his freshman year next month. To the dorm. It seems like a very bad idea but he is determined to go and I can't talk him out of it. My ex is all for him going and is driving him too because I am nervous even moving him into the dorm and being in such close contact with so many people.

And I am TERRIFIED sending my 16 year old back to high school next month.
And I am TERRIFIED that my 21 year old is moving across country next month for grad school.

I was already scared, but the fact that this is becoming more contagious is terrifying. My oldest child also lives across the country from me (he is 23), but he is taking this seriously. And his graduate school has already announced online fall classes AND his job is allowing him to work from home. So at least one out of my four kids has very little exposure.
 

dk168

Ideal_Rock
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Messages
6,235
An American friend posted this earlier this morning - Trump did not need to build a wall afterall, Mexico has closed its border to US.

Please do not shoot the messenger, and yes, I laughed.

DK :lol-2:
 

1ofakind

Brilliant_Rock
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Messages
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@asscherisme this more contagious strain isn’t ‘new’. It’s been the predominant strain since March. It is not becoming more contagious now. Maybe that will give you some relief. That and unless your kiddos have underlying health conditions the risk is very low even if they catch it.
 

kenny

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@asscherisme this more contagious strain isn’t ‘new’. It’s been the predominant strain since March. It is not becoming more contagious now. Maybe that will give you some relief. That and unless your kiddos have underlying health conditions the risk is very low even if they catch it.
Yea, we all know the young are less likely to die from C19.
But, perhaps asscherisme is terrified for the innocent old people who may die if her or his kids become virus factories, and spread it before they know they have it.
 

asscherisme

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Yea, we all know the young are less likely to die from C19.
But, perhaps asscherisme is terrified for the innocent old people who may die if her or his kids become virus factories, and spread it before they know they have it.
You took the words out of my mouth Kenny.

Plus in addition, I have a pre-existing health condition and my youngest going to high school and then home to me concerns me for not just her and others, but myself as well. I am in a high risk category that if I get this, I am more likely to get very sick.

I also worry about the busddrivers, school staff etc, elderly people in my community.

And I do want to say, I am not a germophobe at all. An I have gained a huge sense of empathy for those who suffer from fear of germs. Or those who are afraid to leave their home. I do go out when I need to because I need to buy food etc, but try to minimize contact.
 

qubitasaurus

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So I thought it was well known for a while (many months) that the European strand and chinese strand of the virus were different. The European strand is what we all have, so this virus is not more contagious than it was yesterday. It is simply that we never had the chinese strand in the first place. Interestingly a lot of epidemiological evidence is now suggesting the two strands may have split as early as November last year (long before the first recorded case in China in late december 2019). I was under the understanding that there is ongoing investigarions (in europe) into where the european strand comes from as a result of this -- just in case it's not actually china and we get some more info that can help us fight it this way. But there is no reason to be scared that it's getting more infectious -- this remains one of the original strands per se (and both probably began circulating late last year).
 
Last edited:

voce

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@qubitasaurus I have tried to reserve judgement about where the virus "originated" from, given the genetic sequencing and the different strains. Most people in the West seem to accept it as a foregone conclusion that they got the virus from China, although the one being spread rampantly is the "European" strain that is genetically distinct from the strain dominant in Wuhan. But until we have better evidence, I am disinclined to believe the CCP's version/theory about the virus verbatim. I hope the truth will come out eventually, after all the finger pointing, on both sides of the Pacific.
 

1ofakind

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This is also a factor in explaining why the countries with the less infectious strain have had more success containing it. It wasn’t simply that they did everything right while we did everything wrong.
 

Bron357

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I don’t think it matters where it came from.
All that matters now, while we wait for a vaccine or an effective treatment that mitigates the life threatening symptoms, is controlling the spread and being able to provide adequate medical support to those who need it
 

qubitasaurus

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@qubitasaurus I have tried to reserve judgement about where the virus "originated" from, given the genetic sequencing and the different strains. Most people in the West seem to accept it as a foregone conclusion that they got the virus from China, although the one being spread rampantly is the "European" strain that is genetically distinct from the strain dominant in Wuhan. But until we have better evidence, I am disinclined to believe the CCP's version/theory about the virus verbatim. I hope the truth will come out eventually, after all the finger pointing, on both sides of the Pacific.
It would be helpful undoubtedly to know where they all came from -- merely from the perspective that more knowledge is usually helpful. Maybe theyll isolate how it got to humans (helpful if you want to stop it happening again). But it isnt really an eminent concern at the moment and certainly shouldn't be where our attention is focused. Particularly not as a society, as it makes us less capable of actually focusing on containing it.

The current article seems to be inciting some fear that the virus sitting in the US and Europe is evolving as we are trying to control it.

Firstly it hasnt evolved (at least as far as I and the authors of this article know) since Europe got it (probaby late last year). Wherever it came from and however it got there it is still the exact same virus we have been coping with all along in the west (possibly since November of last year.).

All viruses evolve -- they often select both to be more contagious and less lethal so as not to kill their hosts (dead hosts cannot pass it on). I am actually hoping it will evolve and become less severe.

I cant say the article was deliberately trying to be fear mongering but it certainly could have been clearer about some points instead of going for the attention grabbing factor.
 

qubitasaurus

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@qubitasaurus I have tried to reserve judgement about where the virus "originated" from, given the genetic sequencing and the different strains. Most people in the West seem to accept it as a foregone conclusion that they got the virus from China, although the one being spread rampantly is the "European" strain that is genetically distinct from the strain dominant in Wuhan. But until we have better evidence, I am disinclined to believe the CCP's version/theory about the virus verbatim. I hope the truth will come out eventually, after all the finger pointing, on both sides of the Pacific.
Actually sorry if this is a little off topic, but you reminded me that your comment was actually topical. I think there were a couple of recent european studies supposedly identifying covid in europe as early as March 2019


So perhaps I should revise my comments above to the current strain is the same strain as we have been coping with in the west/europe all year (2020). 2019 is anyones' guess at this stage, it's simply too early to be able to tell.
 
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