Should we wait to buy diamonds? As price may go down in this economic downturn?

[diagem]

Date: 11/3/2008 6:06:16 PM
Author: Garry H (Cut Nut)

Date: 11/3/2008 4:51:31 PM
Author: DiaGem

Date: 11/3/2008 1:34:27 PM
Author: Indira-London
If you factor in currency changes: diamond trade prices in currencies other than the US dollar e.g. in sterling or Euros have actually gone up more than any changes caused by recent Rap corrections!

For example, sterling has dropped significantly againt the US dollar - up until a few months ago, we were getting ca. 2 dollars to 1 pound sterling but that rate has dropped to ca. 1.6 dollars to the pound - last week it was even down to ca. 1.5ish dollars to the pound.

This is in contast to the small changes seen in Rap last week.

As a relatively old timer myself: I recall when we used to get 1.4 dollars to 1 pound sterling so this is not news for me but it is a shock to those who had got used to a strong pound and a weak dollar.

You mean after it collapsed due to the weak US$ in the last few years??? Correct?

Weak or not DG - it has stopped my purchasing when the A$ dropped from the mid 90''s to low 60''s.
So the rise in the US$ could easliy kill demand in the rest of the world - thereby being a catalyst for falling prices - even more so than the reduced demand from USA.

Infact the very sudden rise in US$ / fall in A$ is my biggest single threat to my business in 32 years.

What is impacting your purchasing decisions more..., the sudden rise of the US$ or the heavy fog/panic currently covering our industry?

Or both?

 

[JoeNewbie11]

Deflation in all commodities and assets in the short term, Inflation (especially the US$) in the long term.

 

[strmrdr]

China isn''t going to save the industry.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/asia/la-fi-factory3-2008nov03,0,3469025.story

These are the people in China that had enough money to buy diamonds.

The middle east isn''t going to save the industry because the gravey train of high oil prices is over in the short term.
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gUOhsM3IZKRopgGnygkgjig6nA2Q

India and Brazil are in trouble

http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12481004

 

[Indira-London]

Date: 11/3/2008 4:51:31 PM
Author: DiaGem

Date: 11/3/2008 1:34:27 PM
Author: Indira-London
If you factor in currency changes: diamond trade prices in currencies other than the US dollar e.g. in sterling or Euros have actually gone up more than any changes caused by recent Rap corrections!

For example, sterling has dropped significantly againt the US dollar - up until a few months ago, we were getting ca. 2 dollars to 1 pound sterling but that rate has dropped to ca. 1.6 dollars to the pound - last week it was even down to ca. 1.5ish dollars to the pound.

This is in contast to the small changes seen in Rap last week.

As a relatively old timer myself: I recall when we used to get 1.4 dollars to 1 pound sterling so this is not news for me but it is a shock to those who had got used to a strong pound and a weak dollar.

You mean after it collapsed due to the weak US$ in the last few years??? Correct?

Yes exactly: when the dollar was weak we saw that Europeans enjoyed relatively lower prices. Now the dollar is strong or the Euro and sterling are weaker relative to the dollar. Europeans are actually seeing a STEEP INCREASE in prices much more than the small downward change in Rap in dollars last week, Moreover, some people are waiting for the currency market to stabilise before they purchase - there seem to be significant shifts between dollar and Euro or sterling on a daily basis!

 

[diagem]

Date: 11/4/2008 2:58:56 AM
Author: Indira-London

Date: 11/3/2008 4:51:31 PM
Author: DiaGem

Date: 11/3/2008 1:34:27 PM
Author: Indira-London
If you factor in currency changes: diamond trade prices in currencies other than the US dollar e.g. in sterling or Euros have actually gone up more than any changes caused by recent Rap corrections!

For example, sterling has dropped significantly againt the US dollar - up until a few months ago, we were getting ca. 2 dollars to 1 pound sterling but that rate has dropped to ca. 1.6 dollars to the pound - last week it was even down to ca. 1.5ish dollars to the pound.

This is in contast to the small changes seen in Rap last week.

As a relatively old timer myself: I recall when we used to get 1.4 dollars to 1 pound sterling so this is not news for me but it is a shock to those who had got used to a strong pound and a weak dollar.

You mean after it collapsed due to the weak US$ in the last few years??? Correct?

Yes exactly: when the dollar was weak we saw that Europeans enjoyed relatively lower prices. Now the dollar is strong or the Euro and sterling are weaker relative to the dollar. Europeans are actually seeing a STEEP INCREASE in prices much more than the small downward change in Rap in dollars last week, Moreover, some people are waiting for the currency market to stabilise before they purchase - there seem to be significant shifts between dollar and Euro or sterling on a daily basis!

Hi...

Two Q''s

1) when you say Europeans..., are you talking industry or consumers?

2) Do you realy believe Rap is still relevant these days?

 

[Indira-London]

Date: 11/4/2008 3:06:23 AM
Author: DiaGem

Date: 11/4/2008 2:58:56 AM
Author: Indira-London

Date: 11/3/2008 4:51:31 PM
Author: DiaGem

Date: 11/3/2008 1:34:27 PM
Author: Indira-London
If you factor in currency changes: diamond trade prices in currencies other than the US dollar e.g. in sterling or Euros have actually gone up more than any changes caused by recent Rap corrections!

For example, sterling has dropped significantly againt the US dollar - up until a few months ago, we were getting ca. 2 dollars to 1 pound sterling but that rate has dropped to ca. 1.6 dollars to the pound - last week it was even down to ca. 1.5ish dollars to the pound.

This is in contast to the small changes seen in Rap last week.

As a relatively old timer myself: I recall when we used to get 1.4 dollars to 1 pound sterling so this is not news for me but it is a shock to those who had got used to a strong pound and a weak dollar.

You mean after it collapsed due to the weak US$ in the last few years??? Correct?

Yes exactly: when the dollar was weak we saw that Europeans enjoyed relatively lower prices. Now the dollar is strong or the Euro and sterling are weaker relative to the dollar. Europeans are actually seeing a STEEP INCREASE in prices much more than the small downward change in Rap in dollars last week, Moreover, some people are waiting for the currency market to stabilise before they purchase - there seem to be significant shifts between dollar and Euro or sterling on a daily basis!

Hi...

Two Q''s

1) when you say Europeans..., are you talking industry or consumers? I have been talking about consumers as it is European consumers that have noticed the steep price increase in diamond prices caused by deciline of sterling and Euro against the dollar

2) Do you realy believe Rap is still relevant these days? I mentioned Rap as that is what was being discussed in this thread in terms of the recent price correction issue by Rappaport last week

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

Date: 11/3/2008 6:27:22 PM
Author: DiaGem

Date: 11/3/2008 6:06:16 PM
Author: Garry H (Cut Nut)

Date: 11/3/2008 4:51:31 PM
Author: DiaGem


You mean after it collapsed due to the weak US$ in the last few years??? Correct?

Weak or not DG - it has stopped my purchasing when the A$ dropped from the mid 90''s to low 60''s.
So the rise in the US$ could easliy kill demand in the rest of the world - thereby being a catalyst for falling prices - even more so than the reduced demand from USA.

Infact the very sudden rise in US$ / fall in A$ is my biggest single threat to my business in 32 years.

What is impacting your purchasing decisions more..., the sudden rise of the US$ or the heavy fog/panic currently covering our industry?

Or both?

I would say it is 3/4''s A$ and 1/4 watching the economic melt down.
But in order to exist i must replace fast selling goodies - but we are having a devil of a time working out repricing issues. Labour stays the same, gold goes up too because of the US$, even though it is falling in S terms. And diamonds are going down a little.

Re Rap etc - IDEX should take every opportunity now - but it will be unlikely they will take the crown from Mike

 

[WinkHPD]

Date: 11/3/2008 5:59:19 PM
Author: Garry H (Cut Nut)

Date: 11/3/2008 12:03:14 PM
Author: Wink
Interesting.

Does this chart take into consideration the quality of cutting, or only the color and clarity grades?

Wink

It is the entire listings from Pricescope Wink - good, bad and the ugly.

So then it does not shed any light on Paul''s assertion that the spread between the better cuts and the average cuts will widen back to historical norms. Too bad, that would be interesting to know.

Wink

 

[diagem]

Date: 11/4/2008 9:43:41 AM
Author: Wink

Date: 11/3/2008 5:59:19 PM
Author: Garry H (Cut Nut)

Date: 11/3/2008 12:03:14 PM
Author: Wink
Interesting.

Does this chart take into consideration the quality of cutting, or only the color and clarity grades?

Wink

It is the entire listings from Pricescope Wink - good, bad and the ugly.

So then it does not shed any light on Paul''s assertion that the spread between the better cuts and the average cuts will widen back to historical norms. Too bad, that would be interesting to know.

Wink

Too fogy out there these days..., I assume we will all be smarter within the next month or so...

Right now..., its impossible to make assertions....