Second wave of COVID-19?

[mellowyellowgirl]

My son has been back at school for two weeks (going on three). They don't social distance at all and share food etc

Some Catholic schools have been back for a month.

We've had two cases where one student or teacher tested positive and they closed the school for a few days (not our school) but that's about it. People aren't dropping off like flies or anything.

Nothing much has happened in terms of spread even with school resuming. I don't think the kids spread it.

ETA: We are in the middle of winter right now.

 

[Daisys and Diamonds]

My son has been back at school for two weeks (going on three). They don't social distance at all and share food etc

Some Catholic schools have been back for a month.

We've had two cases where one student or teacher tested positive and they closed the school for a few days (not our school) but that's about it. People aren't dropping off like flies or anything.

Nothing much has happened in terms of spread even with school resuming. I don't think the kids spread it.

ETA: We are in the middle of winter right now.

i think we are both extremely fortunate to live somewhere without rampid community transmission

i did just read 5 new cases in Melbourne one being a BLM protester, i hope this is just a blip in your nations recovery, i know you still have restrictions between states

 

[mellowyellowgirl]

i think we are both extremely fortunate to live somewhere without rampid community transmission

i did just read 5 new cases in Melbourne one being a BLM protester, i hope this is just a blip in your nations recovery, i know you still have restrictions between states

I don't think people are going to take too kindly to being locked down again just because another bunch of people decided to exercise their right to protest.

What's the point in doing the right thing if the mass protesters are going to undo it. We may as well go all Spanish flu on everyone.

ScoMo is super annoyed about it and so am I!

ETA: If people want to protest, the mum and dad sushi joint should be allowed to trade like normal!

 

[OreoRosies86]

 

[JPie]

I don't think people are going to take too kindly to being locked down again just because another bunch of people decided to exercise their right to protest.

What's the point in doing the right thing if the mass protesters are going to undo it. We may as well go all Spanish flu on everyone.

ScoMo is super annoyed about it and so am I!

ETA: If people want to protest, the mum and dad sushi joint should be allowed to trade like normal!

When Black people continue to be murdered in the streets during a pandemic, I can understand why so many would feel compelled to accept the risks and protest. Letting systemic racism and white supremacy go unchecked is dangerous to all of us, and in the long term worse than a pandemic in different ways.

Yes, the mom and pop sushi joint is hurt by the shelter-in-place orders. But what about literally generations of Black people who are at a socioeconomic disadvantage due to racist loan policies? Higher incarceration rates for low-level offenses while their white counterparts get off with just a warning? Being held back from promotions? Not even getting a job they’re the most qualified for because they’re Black?

It’s easier to sympathize with businesses hurt by the pandemic, and ignore centuries of discrimination against Black people because that’s how it’s always been.

 

[mellowyellowgirl]

When Black people continue to be murdered in the streets during a pandemic, I can understand why so many would feel compelled to accept the risks and protest. Letting systemic racism and white supremacy go unchecked is dangerous to all of us, and in the long term worse than a pandemic in different ways.

Yes, the mom and pop sushi joint is hurt by the shelter-in-place orders. But what about literally generations of Black people who are at a socioeconomic disadvantage due to racist loan policies? Higher incarceration rates for low-level offenses while their white counterparts get off with just a warning? Being held back from promotions? Not even getting a job they’re the most qualified for because they’re Black?

It’s easier to sympathize with businesses hurt by the pandemic, and easier to ignore centuries of discrimination against Black people because that’s how it’s always been.

My take is that if the protests are happening there should be no more incessant fussing about "Omg we're all going to die, everyone hide"

The cat is out of bag. We tried this lockdown business, there ARE more worthy causes to pursue than to lockdown clearly.

So in light of that everyone should just resume their lives and people can stay home and shelter in place if they choose to. Just like people would continue to pursue causes they think are worthy.

If this was Ebola I doubt people would protest in droves so clearly the virus isn't going to kill us all.

It's hypocritical to be ok with the protests and then declare we all need to hide again to prevent death afterwards.

 

[JPie]

My take is that if the protests are happening there should be no more incessant fussing about "Omg we're all going to die, everyone hide"

The cat is out of bag. We tried this lockdown business, there ARE more worthy causes to pursue than to lockdown clearly.

So in light of that everyone should just resume their lives and people can stay home and shelter in place if they choose to. Just like people would continue to pursue causes they think are worthy.

If this was Ebola I doubt people would protest in droves so clearly the virus isn't going to kill us all.

It's hypocritical to be ok with the protests and then declare we all need to hide again to prevent death afterwards.

Spending time at a protest to support the movement? Worthy in my book. Demanding that restaurants and stores be open to serve people who are tired of being home and want a haircut? Not worthy.

We’re not going to see eye to eye on this, but I am glad you’re in a country that seems to have its cases under control.

 

[mellowyellowgirl]

We’re not going to see eye to eye on this, but I am glad you’re in a country that seems to have its cases under control.

And I truly hope there will be no notable spike/second wave from all the protests. I don't actually think there will be!!! Keeping all fingers and toes crossed for you guys!!!!!!

 

[JPie]

And I truly hope there will be no notable spike/second wave from all the protests. I don't actually think there will be!!! Keeping all fingers and toes crossed for you guys!!!!!!

Thank you! I think I would feel differently about reopening if my President were actually competent, we had adequate testing, and did widescale contact tracing.

 

[1ofakind]

The protesters in the US most certainly were not all wearing masks and social distancing.
I support their right to Peacefully protest just like I support the right of people to earn a living. I wish they all would do it safely and responsibly.

 

[Dancing Fire]

It was reported today that cases are on the rise in 12 states since the Memorial Day weekend. They are predicting another 100,000 deaths by September.

How can anyone think this is winding down and nothing to worry about?

They were predicting 200K just in Ca. alone.

 

[Dancing Fire]

It's hypocritical to be ok with the protests and then declare we all need to hide again to prevent death afterwards.

 

[pearlsngems]

This animated graph shows global deaths due to various causes and COVID-19, from 1/1/2020 to 6/9/2020.
It is remarkable to see the rise in COVID deaths beginning in April, to June. What might it look like in a few months, or by the end of the year? Very sobering.

Global Deaths Due to Various Causes and COVID-19

A Flourish data visualisation by Tony Nickonchuk

public.flourish.studio

 

[GliderPoss]

I think there will definitely be a second wave and unfortunately some of it will directly be linked to the wave of global protests, no way tens of thousands of people in the streets can completely avoid spreading it! Other countries such as India and Africa are only just getting started....

I think/hope Oz will be similarly blessed in getting off lightly yet again but who knows?

 

[Cerulean]

We'll live with COVID just as we do with seasonal flu. Those who are at greater risk for becoming seriously ill will need to take greater precaution, just like they should every flu season or in other times of viral/bacterial outbreaks. More densely populated areas will be hotspots, as usual, and the vast majority of areas will not see a lot of change. The number of cases isn't a thing... there will always be cases... more cases = greater immunity, which is a good thing. What matters are cases that require more serious intervention, like hospitalization, and those resulting in death.

What I do believe, however, is that the American people (as well as employers) will be much less willing to participate in another shut down, especially if it negatively affects their finances to a large extent. In the majority of areas, there have not been that many cases which resulted in death or even required hospitalization, but many people in less affected areas have literally lost their livelihoods... never to recover.

I work with a ton of different physicians and other medical professionals, all of whom agree that the complete (and continued) shutdown, as well as the majority of continued restrictions are overkill, and, in large part, unnecessary. Even experts in the field have admitted this, but the damage is done. Businesses are now worried about public perception, and lots of people still worry they'll "catch Covid-19 and die" if they leave their homes. Very sad.

I find the last comments you made quite interesting. I work in healthcare too, at a consulting firm, and I have not heard a whisper from a single health care system client of ours that restrictions were overkill. My intention isn't to be argumentative, but this was genuinely the first I had heard anything like this at all and we interact with clinical, operations, innovation/strategy teams, supply chain, you name it.

The perception issue - definitely. Hospitals have absolutely been gutted financially. Anything they made a margin on was essentially halted, all while their overheads for huge amounts of PPE skyrocketed, they had to redesign their patient flow, waiting rooms, buy ad-hoc technology... It is a mess...

 

[nala]

And I truly hope there will be no notable spike/second wave from all the protests. I don't actually think there will be!!! Keeping all fingers and toes crossed for you guys!!!!!!

I gotta say, beaches have been flooded since April 26th! Thousands more at the beaches than the protests...I’ve been watching for an uptick from the beaches and given the backlog, those cases are prob just coming in now. So. If the beaches didn’t increase the deaths and ICU or hospitalizations, the protests shouldn’t either. From what I’ve seen so far, I’m not alarmed.

 

[nala]

I think there will definitely be a second wave and unfortunately some of it will directly be linked to the wave of global protests, no way tens of thousands of people in the streets can completely avoid spreading it! Other countries such as India and Africa are only just getting started....

I think/hope Oz will be similarly blessed in getting off lightly yet again but who knows?

You can also blame the thousands at the beaches if you want to blame the protests.

 

[nala]

They were predicting 200K just in Ca. alone.

Because they are all at the beaches? Wearing no masks and hanging out with friends?

 

[nala]

Thank you! I think I would feel differently about reopening if my President were actually competent, we had adequate testing, and did widescale contact tracing.

So do you trust your governor? And your local agencies? That’s who I have to trust. And right now, my local agencies can’t even agree on masks. Their actions affect me more than the president’s.

 

[nala]

This animated graph shows global deaths due to various causes and COVID-19, from 1/1/2020 to 6/9/2020.
It is remarkable to see the rise in COVID deaths beginning in April, to June. What might it look like in a few months, or by the end of the year? Very sobering.

Global Deaths Due to Various Causes and COVID-19

A Flourish data visualisation by Tony Nickonchuk

public.flourish.studio

I’m curious as to why the USA’s number one killers of heart disease and diabetes and cancer aren’t in the graph? Do those diseases not kill as many people globally? Ever since the pandemic started I have been wondering how many heart disease or diabetes or cancer deaths were precipitated by Covid and thus, credited to Covid rather than the other diseases.

 

[Cerulean]

I am biased because I work on the fringes of healthcare - not at a hospital, not a clinician and won't pretend to possess deep epidemiological knowledge. My firm specializes in technology. It has been interesting to interact with colleagues far more competent than I who have worked across the entire healthcare ecosystem.

There is just a lot we don't know. Comparing the USA to other countries...is challenging. For a few reasons. If we compare to China, South Korea....we don't have the ability to perform tests and contact trace in the same ways because we privilege other things, like protecting personal data and personal freedoms to move about in the world. That comes at a price. And with hundreds of thousands of obese American citizens with co-morbid issues like high blood pressure, heart disease, diabetes, and other chronic diseases, we are especially vulnerable. Sorry to say it. Many of my family members fall in this category (I used to as well, I mean no offense!). All of whom are denying care they need out of fear, and for them, rightfully so, because many of them are higher risk.

The other fallout that isn't being as carefully monitored - fatalities for completely non-COVID-19 related deaths are up (***EDIT - health conditions - no clue about accidents, suicide, etc.), almost across the board. Whether that is because testing is ineffective, other determinants...I am not sure. But there is an underlying medical crisis that could be looming that we need to be watchful of IMO.

My suspicion, is that when flu season picks up, people won't know how to differentiate symptoms and hospitals will be overrun and manage a surge of a mix of flu/coronavirus patients. This complicates patient flow, how patients are isolated, and how they get triaged at the door to not totally overwhelm staff within. Whether a next wave is true or artificially inflated due to flu season, I expect a surge and hospitals as far as I know are gearing up for it.

Rural hospitals with limited beds are at extremely high risk, especially as "summer folks" flood small communities in the northeast.

Physician burnout is very very real in certain zip codes and is going to be a serious issue for some health systems. One health system in a hotspot area has had to hire crisis counselors, create "oasis zones", provide other creature comforts for staff. Hospitals generally are also financially very weak right now and frankly while equipped with more knowledge and tools, will struggle to deal with a surge, especially if it is worse based on financials alone. Financial outlook for healthcare is really grim right now and comprises 18% of US GDP. I have no idea how that will impact the economy but I digress.

I hope that whatever comes, we can manage. I am sure we will. We learned a lot fast, and we can do it again and adapt. I am trying to be optimistic.

I am not even going to touch the protest discussion with a ten foot pole....living on the south side of Chicago it has already consumed my community...

 

[BMI]

I’m curious as to why the USA’s number one killers if heart disease and diabetes and cancer aren’t in the graph? Do those diseases not kill as many people globally?

Nala, I was wondering the same thing until I noticed at the bottom of the graph it states:

*Except COVID, causes of death shown account for ~7% of global deaths annually

ETA: My guess is that the graph only shows the causes that are still lower than the current Covid deaths. I think the main point of the graph is to show how quickly the Covid numbers are changing, but that is just an assumption on my part.

 

[Cerulean]

I’m curious as to why the USA’s number one killers of heart disease and diabetes and cancer aren’t in the graph? Do those diseases not kill as many people globally? Ever since the pandemic started I have been wondering how many heart disease or diabetes or cancer deaths were precipitated by Covid and thus, credited to Covid rather than the other diseases.

I have no idea who published this / where the data was from - my guess is, these are a sampling of causes of fatalities to bolster the narrative, not the "top" ones if that makes sense. I do not see some of the most common causes of death on there.

They chose their title carefully...I hate this kind of data visualization. It can tell a great story. But it is manipulative.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Because they are all at the beaches? Wearing no masks and hanging out with friends?

No the 200k prediction was way before the beaches reopened.

 

[Daisys and Diamonds]

16 of our 20 deaths were in aged care facilities
im still disgusted that our vaunarable frail old people were not protected better
i would certainly hope if any where in the world is unfortunate enough to get a 2nd wave that hard lessons have been learned and old people will be safer

 

[Daisys and Diamonds]

I don't think people are going to take too kindly to being locked down again just because another bunch of people decided to exercise their right to protest.

What's the point in doing the right thing if the mass protesters are going to undo it. We may as well go all Spanish flu on everyone.

ScoMo is super annoyed about it and so am I!

ETA: If people want to protest, the mum and dad sushi joint should be allowed to trade like normal!

absolutly
thats why our govt pushed the go early go hard message with a full lockdown early on
while i absoltluly empathise with the genuine BLM protesters in America i was very angry to think that all our hard work and sacrafice might have been for nothing and it could have resulted in a 2nd wave with more deaths and terrible economic pain
i saw very few protesters in this country wearing masks on the footage i saw on tv
covid 19 doesn't care what colour anyone is
it will take anyone's nanna and grandad if given 1/2 an opportunity
its doesn't care if your at an overcrowded beach or in a protest march
stay safe over there in 'Oz, im worried about you all but i cannot support a Transtasmen travel bubble while you still have new cases popping up
we have gone 20 days will bo new cases - holding breath 8 days to go for elimination

 

[GliderPoss]

You can also blame the thousands at the beaches if you want to blame the protests.

Absolutely! Any large gatherings could be responsible.

 

[missy]

The New York Philharmonic sent me an email last night. They have canceled the entire 2020 season through at least the beginning of January 2021. That speaks volumes. This is where I see us going as well. Through the rest of the year and most likely into 2021 we will have to be Covid conscious and careful. IMO.

"
We at the New York Philharmonic have been examining every possible solution for returning to David Geffen Hall. On behalf of the Orchestra and staff, we miss you, which has made our decision today all the more difficult.

After careful deliberation, we have decided to cancel performances through January 5, 2021, as it has become clear that large groups of people will not be able to safely gather for the remainder of the calendar year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The safety of our audience, musicians, and staff remains the highest priority. We continue to communicate with government officials and health professionals to guide the implementation of safety measures for when we return to the hall, and we are exploring options for concerts in smaller gatherings when possible, as we are eager to get back to performing as soon as we can."

 

[yssie]

I am hopeful that the fact that the beachgoers and protesters are outdoors will at least minimize transmission rate. Objectively there is just no realistic possibility that they won't cause increased cases, but hopefully the uptick will be manageable.

 

[House Cat]

Sushi shop vs entire race of people... that’s a tough choice!

My take is that if the protests are happening there should be no more incessant fussing about "Omg we're all going to die, everyone hide"

The cat is out of bag. We tried this lockdown business, there ARE more worthy causes to pursue than to lockdown clearly.

So in light of that everyone should just resume their lives and people can stay home and shelter in place if they choose to. Just like people would continue to pursue causes they think are worthy.

If this was Ebola I doubt people would protest in droves so clearly the virus isn't going to kill us all.

It's hypocritical to be ok with the protests and then declare we all need to hide again to prevent death afterwards.

I find your logic odd. It would only work if everyone in the world had protested. For those of us who didn’t protest out of an abundance of caution, your blanketed logic does not apply.

BTW, most of the world did not protest.

People are allowed to protect themselves from this virus. They should be able to do so without judgment.