Scenes from my local beaches

[Arcadian]

I think they are betting on the theory that heat kills the virus

All they have to do is look at FL. that shit is NOT dying!

 

[nala]

All they have to do is look at FL. that shit is NOT dying!

Oh. I’ll be watching closely. These findings will be the only good that can come from this risky behavior. I told my loved ones to stay away from freshly tanned peeps!

 

[Arcadian]

Oh. I’ll be watching closely. These findings will tht the only good that can come from this risky behavior. I told my loved ones to stay away from freshly tanned peeps!

LOL Same! Granted, Jacksonville beaches are open police are telling people not to lay out, so I guess, open with restrictions. SOme boat ramps are open (none near me or south of me), I heard we might be closed until June because as one of the three highest counties that has it, we have the highest death rate. I actually miss the beach but I'm OK to wait. Even if it opens in June I may not even bother going until August/September.

 

[facetgirl]

So far the beaches at the Jersey Shore are still closed I think. And the streets are relatively empty as are the beaches.

Interesting piece on the Jersey Shore and possible options during Covid 19.

Jersey Shore post-coronavirus could mean masks and 6-foot beach blanket rule, mayors say

It won't be a typical summer at the Jersey Shore, officials say.

www.nj.com

If a second wave of this virus will happen, I really feel our behaviors over the summer will determine the severity. Can you imagine going back into quarantine for Thanksgiving and the holidays?

 

[OboeGal]

Many seasonal small businesses that have been down the shore for generations will not recover. They aren't making tons of money each summer with backup funds. They are small family businesses. Covid19 doesn't only hurt the people it infects. It's devastating to individuals, families and entire communities, far beyond the health repercussions.
I wish there was more recognition of the sacrifices being made beyond staying home. People are losing their livelihoods, life dreams, life work, to protect others. I wish that was given more attention and appreciation. My heart is broken for one of the places I love most. I mourn with them as well as the people that have lost loved ones.

While I certainly am aggrieved at these kinds of losses, and believe that all who are financially secure should be doing their utmost to help mitigate those losses for others, those losses are not life-ending. The people enduring them still have a chance at financial recovery.

There is no recovery for a life lost. That HAS to be the top priority now. Period.

 

[AuntKiki]

While I certainly am aggrieved at these kinds of losses, and believe that all who are financially secure should be doing their utmost to help mitigate those losses for others, those losses are not life-ending. The people enduring them still have a chance at financial recovery.

There is no recovery for a life lost. That HAS to be the top priority now. Period.

All true.

 

[OoohShiny]

While I certainly am aggrieved at these kinds of losses, and believe that all who are financially secure should be doing their utmost to help mitigate those losses for others, those losses are not life-ending. The people enduring them still have a chance at financial recovery.

There is no recovery for a life lost. That HAS to be the top priority now. Period.

Genuine question... but do they have a chance?

The way my understanding works is that:

If they have no reserve fund in the bank, shop rent and a mortgage they cannot pay, and life insurance they can no longer afford... what hope do they have?

They'll have to close the business because they won't be able to cover the business rates on the premises and any ground rent, and they won't be able to open up a new shop later because they need capital to do that, and they will have none.

They won't be able to get proper healthcare because the US doesn't have a National Health Service like the UK does.

They will get kicked out of their home and then not be able to afford another mortgage, so will have to fight for the (reduced number of) jobs available elsewhere in the area, and then hope it's enough to pay rent on a place somewhere that is nearby and not terrible.


As (IIRC) someone on here has already posted, poverty in and of itself increases mortality rates, nevermind the increased incidence of suicides, the decreased diagnoses and treatment of cancer etc. due to those wards being closed and prioritised for Covid-19 patients (that then aren't appearing), and the increased numbers of people dying at home (here in the UK, at least) from heart attacks and strokes, because the doom-mongering Press and TV media have banged on about the NHS being so strained to capacity (which it's not) and Covid-19 being a deadly killer of eeeevvveeerrryyyyoooonnnneeeee (which it's not), so people are afraid to go to hospital - and that's even with free healthcare!


It's not a case of money vs lives, as often seems to be portrayed - it's more a case of lives now vs lives later, the latter of which is being completely disregarded and not even considered, at least over here in the UK.

It's just another disease that we will have to live with - we can't suppress it forever, it's not going to go away, and as long as there is capacity within the healthcare system to care for those who have a negative and serious reaction to it, normal life should be resumed, with some small changes in terms of personal hygiene and social distancing precautions, perhaps.

If destroying the economy totally and putting people out of their homes saves, say, 50k people, but 200k people later die due to undiagnosed cancer, poverty, deprivation... is the cure really better?

Especially given that Infection Fatality Rates seem to be being estimated/calculated at about 0.12% (IIRC) - so in line with a bad year for influenza.


I don't know... I'm pretty fatalistic about this stuff. If the US in particular was so bothered about saving lives, it would implement similarly hardcore strategies to 'lockdown' that reduced obesity from the 40% it currently stands at in some/many states, which arguably has much worse health outcomes, and a much higher financial burden, than Covid-19 appears to.

 

[missy]

It's complicated. There is no black and white answer. Yes we must reopen the economy for all the reasons stated. Lives will be lost due to the economic ramifications no doubt. But if we reopen to soon more lives will be lost to Covid 19. We need to utilize a plan that allows reopening in stages as safely as possible.


It is a tradeoff and I agree it is not simply a matter of lives vs money. The debate really comes down to lives vs lives IMO.

It is not a simple let's reopen the country and let the bodies fall where they may. No, there is a safer way to do it and while no way is perfect there is a smarter way to do it and a reckless way to do it. As we are seeing right now within the USA. We shall see how it unfolds.

‘Will some people be affected badly? Yes.’ As Trump says U.S. must reopen soon, question hangs in the air: Can the economy be saved without sacrificing lives?

‘What government does today will literally determine how many people live and how many people die,’ New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.

www.marketwatch.com

"
How do you strike a balance between the country’s economic life and actual human life?

President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned that efforts to stem the rapid spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, or SARS-CoV-2, are spiraling the U.S. economy into another Great Recession; the impact has already sent the Dow Jones Industrial Index DJIA, +1.10% ricocheting wildly in recent weeks. Trump said he will decide when to reopen the economy, but several state governors said the decision is theirs. “When somebody is president of the United States, the authority is total,” Trump said this month.

‘If it’s public health versus the economy, the only choice is public health. You cannot put a value on human life. You do the right thing. That’s what Pop taught us.’
— New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said reopening is both an economic question and a public health question, and said he won't choose between lives and dollars. He called for more testing and more precautions when the valve of economic activity is slowly turned on, but he said you can’t turn on the economy without turning on the transportation system. “Open the valve slowly, advised by experts,” he added. “If you see that infection rate start ticking up, then you know you’ve opened the valve too fast. That’s the delicate balance we have to work through.”

Cuomo, a Democrat, has resisted calls to restart the economy and open up businesses, “My mother’s not expendable,” he tweeted recently TWTR, +3.15%, “If it’s public health versus the economy, the only choice is public health. You cannot put a value on human life. You do the right thing. That’s what Pop taught us.” He recalled his father Mario Cuomo’s definition of government: “The idea of family, mutuality, the sharing of benefits and burdens for the good of all, feeling one another’s pain, sharing one another’s blessings.”

The numbers keep climbing. Nearly 17,126 of the 54,573 U.S. fatalities were in New York City, as of Sunday morning. More than 282,100 of the 954,182 confirmed cases in the U.S. were in New York State. All non-essential businesses were ordered to close in an effort to stem the spread of the virus. There number of confirmed cases worldwide has reached 2,947,616, with 205,607 deaths recorded from the virus, according to John Hopkins University.

Is putting America back to work sooner rather than later a Sisyphean task, the equivalent of rolling a rock perpetually uphill while up to 2 million people in a worst-case scenario die of COVID-19? Or does the Sisyphean task involve waiting, while millions more people lose their livelihoods, only to find themselves among the long-term unemployed or underemployed, eventually succumbing to substance abuse and chronic depression, and even perhaps, as the president forecasts, suicide?

The debate over the ramifications of a months-long shutdown of the American economy has been at times both emotive and sobering. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases for more than three decades and one of the leading experts in the U.S. on infectious diseases, has pleaded with people to “socially distance” and, thus, prevent coronavirus from spreading unchecked.

But the economy’s survival vs. the public-health emergency highlights the chasm between left and right on the American political spectrum. The left generally believes that strong social structures beget a stronger economy for all. The right traditionally follows the idea that a strong economic system begets strong social structures for all.

Bill Gates, the co-founder of Microsoft MSFT, +1.82% and now a mega-philanthropist whose foundation focuses in large part on fostering global health, said recently. “There really is no middle ground, and it’s very tough to say to people, ‘Hey, keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, [and] ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner,’” Gates said in a TED interview. “We want you to keep spending because there’s maybe a politician who thinks GDP growth is all that counts.”


‘Unprecedented levels of deaths of despair’
The Centers for Disease Control has warned that in a worst-case scenario 2.4 million to 21 million people could require hospitalization, potentially, should they take ill within a condensed time frame, crippling the country’s health-care system. U.S. hospitals have just over 924,000 staffed hospital beds, according to the American Hospital Association.

“People get tremendous anxiety and depression, and you have suicides over things like this when you have terrible economies,” Trump said recently. “You have death. Probably and — I mean, definitely — would be in far greater numbers than the numbers that we’re talking about with regard to the virus.” (“It is not a foregone conclusion that we will see increased suicide rates,” Christine Moutier of the American Foundation for Suicide Prevention told the Associated Press.)


George Loewenstein, professor of economics and psychology at Carnegie Mellon University, said it’s not as simple as making a choice between the human lives of Americans and the long-term health of the American economy. “I think it might be a false dichotomy because we don’t have a very good understanding of what the impact of a severe [economic] depression would be on human life,” he said. “It will dramatically decrease the quality of human life, and it will certainly kill people as well.”

“We’ve already have unprecedented levels of deaths of despair, and, if we lose a generation as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, that’s going to have mortality consequences,” Loewenstein added. “They’re just going to be more difficult to discern from the statistical victims. If you ignore the impact on quality of life — which is potentially an immense thing that should be taken into account — we don’t really understand what the impact of the economy on mortality.”

‘We’ve already have unprecedented levels of deaths of despair, and if we have a lost generation as a result of the coronavirus pandemic that’s going to have mortality consequences.’
— George Loewenstein, professor of economics and psychology at Carnegie Mellon

Anne Case and Angus Deaton, economists at Princeton University, first chronicled these “deaths of despair” among middle-aged non-Hispanic Caucasians since 1999. They include deaths by suicide, alcohol poisoning, overdoses of opioids and other drugs, and cirrhosis of the liver. The CDC estimates that such deaths of despair have almost doubled since 1999, reaching 150,000 in 2017, with one-third of that figure accounted for by suicide. The Trump campaign of 2016 may have had the victims and potential victims of such outcomes in mind when it spoke of “the forgotten people.”

While COVID-19 fatalities are understandably the main focus now, Loewenstein said those who would ultimately lose their lives as the result of another Great Recession or, worse, a new Great Depression, are sometimes left out of the current economy–vs.–human life conversation. “The Identifiable Victim Effect is the idea that identified victims get much more attention and help than much more statistical victims that will predictably emerge in the future,” he said.

He cites the case of “Baby Jessica,” the 18-month-old girl who fell down a well in her aunt’s backyard in Midland, Texas, in 1987. “The world was fixated on this girl who fell in the well,” he said. Donations of up to $800,000 poured in. She was rescued after 2½ days. “It’s a sign of our humanity. If we ignored such events, we would have a hard time looking at ourselves in the mirror.” Loewenstein added. “At the same time, it creates an immense distortion in policy making.”


Loewenstein argues that Americans are caught between these two events now: start the economy too soon and an avoidable number of people will likely die; wait too long and it could also lead to untold long-term suffering. “I don’t think people have thought efficiently or carefully about smart strategies that would get the best of both, and make a better trade-off between the two. I say that as someone who is 64, and who might be — as part of a smart strategy — isolated,” he added.

Another thing to consider: Given the age profile of fatalities in the U.S. and other countries, elderly people would die in far greater numbers if the economy were restarted earlier. Paul Zak, a neuroscientist and author of “The Moral Molecule: The Source of Love and Prosperity,” said a trade-off between the economy and allowing (older) people to die of COVID-19 reflects that society values people on their economic output, which ignores a multitude of other factors.

“It’s a very difficult trade-off,” Zak said, “and there’s no way of doing that without putting a price on someone’s happiness and that’s very hard to do.” Humans are the only animal on the planet that have fully developed moral sentiments, he added. “If you are around unhappy people, you tend to be more unhappy. Unhappiness is a stress response. That’s how we process it, and that affects the immune system and could, potentially, make you more susceptible to COVID-19.”

‘We’re very comfortable with making these trade-offs’
“It’s appalling to attach a dollar number to a human life — for non-economists,” said Colin Camerer, a behavioral financier, and professor of behavioral finance and economics at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena. “You can never make things perfectly safe with zero risk. We do have limited time, health-care staff, ventilators and money. What is the curve of transmission? How many people are going to die, if you open up the economy? No one is really too sure.”

“We’re very comfortable with making these trade-offs,” Camerer said. “Without even thinking about it, we do make these trade-offs. You may pay less attention crossing the street if your parking meter is about to run out. You are endangering your life in a tiny way to avoid getting a parking ticket. Such decisions that involve an implicit trade-off, but they’re almost invisible.” However, he said such decisions involving other human beings are obviously far more morally complicated.

‘We do make these trade-offs. You may pay less attention crossing the street if your parking ticket is about to run out. You are endangering your life in a tiny way to avoid getting a parking ticket.’
— Colin Camerer, Caltech

Economists use the Value of Statistical Life. It measures the value placed on changes that increase likelihood of death, not the value on a human life to avoid death. “It’s used in court cases when assigning damages,” Camerer said. I could make a highway a little safer at a very high cost. This is one reason economics is called the dismal science. People are typically paid more money to do risky jobs in timber and fishing. We call that a compensating differential.”

VSL is used in court and by governments. Guidance on the amount varies by state agency and can run up to $10 million. “Imagine volunteering for a dangerous mission, and there’s a 10% chance you’ll get killed, and you’re going to be paid x,” Camerer said. “The implicit value of a life is x divided by 0.10. If the boss offers $1 million and the guy says no, he’s acting like his life is worth more than $10 million. If he says yes, he’s acting like it’s worth less.”

What if there are not enough ventilators and you, as a doctor, have to choose between a young child and an elderly patient? And what if you have two people who are exactly the same age and both have an equal chance of survival? Would the minutes between when the patients were admitted to the hospital be the deciding factor? Or would it be who required ventilation first? “You have to go outside of the labor-market framework into an ethical domain,” Camerer said.

Fauci said 100,000 Americans could die from coronavirus, if people do not continue to stay home in an effort to flatten the curve of new cases. However, he said that one thing will decide when people go back to work — and he did not cite estimates by politician or economists, or even health professionals. “You can’t make an arbitrary decision until you see what you’re dealing with. You need the data,” Fauci said, adding, “The virus will decide the timeline.”

Fauci said a proven vaccine will determine when it’s over and that will happen in 12 to 18 months, although others say even that timeline optimistic. Fauci said a second wave is likely in the fall. Cuomo, meanwhile, said that he, like many people, is tired of worrying about his mother, his brother, and not being able to touch people, but he also said the economy cannot be opened overnight where everyone is smiling and waving at each other. “It can’t happen that way.”

“There will be no headline that says, ‘Hallelujah, it’s over,’” Cuomo added.

"

"

Right now, (speaking from NYC that is) the best way to be community minded, to save as many lives as we can, is to remain physically isolated as best as possible. If it is at all possible to do that you will save lives. However the life you save might not be your own but it might be the life of a loved one, a neighbor. IMO this is a clear and dark reminder that community rather than self is the first line of defense. Our connection is the very meaning of life.



No man is an island entire of itself; every man
is a piece of the continent, a part of the main;
if a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe
is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as
well as any manner of thy friends or of thine
own were; any man's death diminishes me,
because I am involved in mankind.
And therefore never send to know for whom
the bell tolls; it tolls for thee. "
John Donne


So yes, obviously we cannot SIP for 18-24 months waiting for a vaccine. But we also cannot just say OK everyone back to work. It needs to be done in stages. We need more testing and tracking, so you reduce the risk of the infection spreading. Where the stronger and more healthy and less vulnerable return to work but still social distancing and wearing masks. People are still not wearing masks in NYC. It is shocking to me how there are (so many) people who just don't give a da*n. Who are selfish and entitled and don't care about their fellow neighbor. We are not just up against the virus as an enemy but people who are too stubborn and selfish to care about anyone but themselves. Who obviously don't give a darn about the essential workers risking their lives every single day. Whether it's the doctors/nurses/EMTs/grocery store workers etc. All those people on the front lines showing up every day to keep our country running and yet there are still people here who refuse to follow social distancing rules or wear masks in crowded areas. :/


To further exacerbate the tragedy, Covid-19 is clearly showing our country’s deep inequality and structural racism. Many of the "essential" workers are poor. Those people who are working in the grocery stores, making the food deliveries, keeping the country running during the pandemic. So as pointed out in earlier posts those pope are putting their lives at risk right now. Clearly this demonstrates the tradeoffs that are happening right now. So yes whether we reopen the country sooner vs later there are tradeoffs that have been happening since the pandemic began. And before that if we look at this country's health care structure and who gets healthcare and who doesn't and who is the population with the greatest amount of underlying disease. We are a country (a world) with tradeoffs happening all the time. During good times and bad.

Interesting fact that I did not know and I wonder how many of you did know this. During the Great Depression of the 30s less people died than during the strong economy of the roaring 20s. And also another fact, fewer people die during recessions than during economy growth times. Where there are more motor vehicle accidents, more pollution overall, and less medical care for the old. Statistics show that during stronger economic times there is a higher number of deaths among the old and young than during times of economic recession.


However I cannot argue that long periods of unemployment will victimize those most vulnerable. As with everything in this world there are tradeoffs. I don't know the right answer.

I don't think there *is* a right answer. How do we assess overall cost to everybody? How do we make the best decision for the greatest number of people? Because there is no scenario that is perfect. Not even close.

This virus highlights our weaknesses and demonstrates the inequality in our country (and perhaps many of the countries across the world with a few exceptions standing high above the rest IMO) and I hope great minds can figure out the best plan possible to reopen our economy in the wisest way possible preserving as many lives as possible. Because while there is no "right" way there sure is a wrong way and doing it too quickly can and will unravel all we have done up to now. Surely bringing us deeper and deeper into the economic hole while costing an incredible amount of lives. So no one right way but there is a wrong way and that would be to do it too fast without a smart plan in place.

IMO.

 

[OoohShiny]

An in depth post, @missy, which I can do no justice to in the few minutes I am grabbing online now!

One thing I would pull out quickly, though, is this bit:

‘If it’s public health versus the economy, the only choice is public health. You cannot put a value on human life. You do the right thing. That’s what Pop taught us.’
— New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

A value is put on human life every day - such as in decision making on whether to offer expensive cancer treatments from the limited budget available, or whether to improve a road junction with a poor safety record - so the statement made is false.

And arguable it's not 'economy versus public health'. The economy *is* public health - without money created by the economy (from taxes in the UK for the NHS or direct payments to insurance companies in the US), health services cannot function or develop new treatments!

Playing the money vs lives argument is emotive manipulation of the facts, and ignorance of the longer term (health) impacts of damaging the economy creates short-termism at the expense of those in the future.


It's no easy decision, that's for sure.

 

[missy]

An in depth post, @missy, which I can do no justice to in the few minutes I am grabbing online now!

One thing I would pull out quickly, though, is this bit:



A value is put on human life every day - such as in decision making on whether to offer expensive cancer treatments from the limited budget available, or whether to improve a road junction with a poor safety record - so the statement made is false.

And arguable it's not 'economy versus public health'. The economy *is* public health - without money created by the economy (from taxes in the UK for the NHS or direct payments to insurance companies in the US), health services cannot function or develop new treatments!

Playing the money vs lives argument is emotive manipulation of the facts, and ignorance of the longer term (health) impacts of damaging the economy creates short-termism at the expense of those in the future.


It's no easy decision, that's for sure.

When you read my full post you will see this is addressed. At least to the best of my ability.

And as to this:

Playing the money vs lives argument is emotive manipulation of the facts, and ignorance of the longer term (health) impacts of damaging the economy creates short-termism at the expense of those in the future.

Yes I also discussed the above. It isn't money vs lives. It is lives vs lives.

It's complicated. There is no black and white answer. Yes we must reopen the economy for all the reasons stated. Lives will be lost due to the economic ramifications no doubt. But if we reopen to soon more lives will be lost to Covid 19. We need to utilize a plan that allows reopening in stages as safely as possible.


It is a tradeoff and I agree it is not simply a matter of lives vs money. The debate really comes down to lives vs lives IMO.

It is not a simple let's reopen the country and let the bodies fall where they may. No, there is a safer way to do it and while no way is perfect there is a smarter way to do it and a reckless way to do it. As we are seeing right now within the USA. We shall see how it unfolds.

‘Will some people be affected badly? Yes.’ As Trump says U.S. must reopen soon, question hangs in the air: Can the economy be saved without sacrificing lives?

‘What government does today will literally determine how many people live and how many people die,’ New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.

www.marketwatch.com

Right now, (speaking from NYC that is) the best way to be community minded, to save as many lives as we can, is to remain physically isolated as best as possible. If it is at all possible to do that you will save lives. However the life you save might not be your own but it might be the life of a loved one, a neighbor. IMO this is a clear and dark reminder that community rather than self is the first line of defense. Our connection is the very meaning of life.



No man is an island entire of itself; every man
is a piece of the continent, a part of the main;
if a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe
is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as
well as any manner of thy friends or of thine
own were; any man's death diminishes me,
because I am involved in mankind.
And therefore never send to know for whom
the bell tolls; it tolls for thee. "
John Donne


So yes, obviously we cannot SIP for 18-24 months waiting for a vaccine. But we also cannot just say OK everyone back to work. It needs to be done in stages. We need more testing and tracking, so you reduce the risk of the infection spreading. Where the stronger and more healthy and less vulnerable return to work but still social distancing and wearing masks. People are still not wearing masks in NYC. It is shocking to me how there are (so many) people who just don't give a da*n. Who are selfish and entitled and don't care about their fellow neighbor. We are not just up against the virus as an enemy but people who are too stubborn and selfish to care about anyone but themselves. Who obviously don't give a darn about the essential workers risking their lives every single day. Whether it's the doctors/nurses/EMTs/grocery store workers etc. All those people on the front lines showing up every day to keep our country running and yet there are still people here who refuse to follow social distancing rules or wear masks in crowded areas. :/


To further exacerbate the tragedy, Covid-19 is clearly showing our country’s deep inequality and structural racism. Many of the "essential" workers are poor. Those people who are working in the grocery stores, making the food deliveries, keeping the country running during the pandemic. So as pointed out in earlier posts those pope are putting their lives at risk right now. Clearly this demonstrates the tradeoffs that are happening right now. So yes whether we reopen the country sooner vs later there are tradeoffs that have been happening since the pandemic began. And before that if we look at this country's health care structure and who gets healthcare and who doesn't and who is the population with the greatest amount of underlying disease. We are a country (a world) with tradeoffs happening all the time. During good times and bad.

Interesting fact that I did not know and I wonder how many of you did know this. During the Great Depression of the 30s less people died than during the strong economy of the roaring 20s. And also another fact, fewer people die during recessions than during economy growth times. Where there are more motor vehicle accidents, more pollution overall, and less medical care for the old. Statistics show that during stronger economic times there is a higher number of deaths among the old and young than during times of economic recession.


However I cannot argue that long periods of unemployment will victimize those most vulnerable. As with everything in this world there are tradeoffs. I don't know the right answer.

I don't think there *is* a right answer. How do we assess overall cost to everybody? How do we make the best decision for the greatest number of people? Because there is no scenario that is perfect. Not even close.

This virus highlights our weaknesses and demonstrates the inequality in our country (and perhaps many of the countries across the world with a few exceptions standing high above the rest IMO) and I hope great minds can figure out the best plan possible to reopen our economy in the wisest way possible preserving as many lives as possible. Because while there is no "right" way there sure is a wrong way and doing it too quickly can and will unravel all we have done up to now. Surely bringing us deeper and deeper into the economic hole while costing an incredible amount of lives. So no one right way but there is a wrong way and that would be to do it too fast without a smart plan in place.

IMO.

 

[arkieb1]

Genuine question... but do they have a chance?

Especially given that Infection Fatality Rates seem to be being estimated/calculated at about 0.12% (IIRC) - so in line with a bad year for influenza.


I don't know... I'm pretty fatalistic about this stuff. If the US in particular was so bothered about saving lives, it would implement similarly hardcore strategies to 'lockdown' that reduced obesity from the 40% it currently stands at in some/many states, which arguably has much worse health outcomes, and a much higher financial burden, than Covid-19 appears to.

Ahhhh, but that isn't the true picture, if you compare general mortality rates this time last year in all these countries to now this was a week ago, the stats are worse now and the fact is people are being classified as dying in their homes from things like heart attacks and "other" conditions when they have really died from COVID - 19;

The Pandemic’s Hidden Toll: Half a Million Deaths (Published 2020)

Far more people died in 2020 during the pandemic than have been officially reported, a review of mortality data in 35 countries shows.

www.nytimes.com

So the fact everyone keeps saying "this is like or comparable a bad flu year is incorrect", unless we are talking about the Spanish Flu, the flu that you and I have experienced has NEVER killed this amount of people or spread as rapidly, you only have to look at the overall mortality or death rates this year compared to last and you will see a sharp difference.

 

[House Cat]

[

Ahhhh, but that isn't the true picture, if you compare general mortality rates this time last year in all these countries to now this was a week ago, the stats are worse now and the fact is people are being classified as dying in their homes from things like heart attacks and "other" conditions when they have really died from COVID - 19;

The Pandemic’s Hidden Toll: Half a Million Deaths (Published 2020)

Far more people died in 2020 during the pandemic than have been officially reported, a review of mortality data in 35 countries shows.

www.nytimes.com

So the fact everyone keeps saying "this is like or comparable a bad flu year is incorrect", unless we are talking about the Spanish Flu, the flu that you and I have experienced has NEVER killed this amount of people or spread as rapidly, you only have to look at the overall mortality or death rates this year compared to last and you will see a sharp difference.

Then you see that this stupid garbage is being fed to the masses. It’s no wonder people want to play outside. I think this is Texas.

The whole time I was watching this, I was wondering if New York doctors felt the same way.

 

[missy]

[


Then you see that this stupid garbage is being fed to the masses. It’s no wonder people want to play outside. I think this is Texas.

The whole time I was watching this, I was wondering if New York doctors felt the same way.

Yesterday My aunt spoke with an ER physician who is a good friend’s daughter. She said do not go out. She’s seeing young healthy adults with zero health conditions dying every single day in her ER. From Covid. The only thing they had in common was that they went for walks. They didn’t venture out to the grocery stores even. According to her. I believe her. She has no reason to lie. She also said the statistics that are being shared by the politicians are not accurate. She said they are deliberately lying. I have no way to know how she knows this. So I won’t be able to answer any questions. Just wanted to share info as I know it. This ER physician is adamant that to remain safe one needs to stay home. Period. Her POV only and I can’t extrapolate to all doctors. I will add I have a few good friends who are physicians working with Covid 19 patients and they say stay home. For now at least.

ETA I’ll believe Dr Fauci over those 2 doctors in the video you shared.

 

[Bonfire]

[


Then you see that this stupid garbage is being fed to the masses. It’s no wonder people want to play outside. I think this is Texas.

The whole time I was watching this, I was wondering if New York doctors felt the same way.

Oh my gosh House Cat I saw this video too. It seems to be making the rounds on FB. I believe these doctors are in California. I was dumbfounded watching this. I think it is irresponsible in many ways.
I know I’ve mentioned before that my daughter is a critical care paramedic. She handles multiple COVID patients every shift.
This video really pi$$ed her off.

 

[missy]

Oh my gosh House Cat I saw this video too. It seems to be making the rounds on FB. I believe these doctors are in California. I was dumbfounded watching this. I think it is irresponsible in many ways.

I agree. Irresponsible was one of the thoughts that came to mind when watching that video. :/
Based on what I know from my friends who are on the front lines and based on what I know in general about Covid 19.

 

[missy]

I know I’ve mentioned before that my daughter is a critical care paramedic. She handles multiple COVID patients every shift.
This video really pi$$ed her off.

Bonfire, I just wanted to say I’m keeping your daughter in my thoughts and prayers. Please tell her how much we appreciate her selfless and brave work on the front lines. Without her and others like her we would never be successful in this war.

 

[House Cat]

Yesterday My aunt spoke with an ER physician who is a good friend’s daughter. She said do not go out. She’s seeing young healthy adults with zero health conditions dying every single day in her ER. From Covid. The only thing they had in common was that they went for walks. They didn’t venture out to the grocery stores even. According to her. I believe her. She has no reason to lie. She also said the statistics that are being shared by the politicians are not accurate. She said they are deliberately lying. I have no way to know how she knows this. So I won’t be able to answer any questions. Just wanted to share info as I know it. This ER physician is adamant that to remain safe one needs to stay home. Period. Her POV only and I can’t extrapolate to all doctors. I will add I have a few good friends who are physicians working with Covid 19 patients and they say stay home. For now at least.

ETA I’ll believe Dr Fauci over those 2 doctors in the video you shared.

Just walks? I don’t understand. Were they stopping to talk to people?

 

[missy]

Just walks? I don’t understand. Were they stopping to talk to people?

Yeah I don't think so. The way my aunt told this to me was just like that. The ER physician said they were not going out to the stores or anything but taking walks. And wearing masks. And yet they became infected and died. And she said every single day she sees young healthy people at her hospital succumb to Covid 19. That is all I know. Needless to say after the chat with my aunt yesterday afternoon I might have shed a few tears. I get emotional when I hear the tragedy happening everywhere on a daily basis.

 

[Bonfire]

Bonfire, I just wanted to say I’m keeping your daughter in my thoughts and prayers. Please tell her how much we appreciate her selfless and brave work on the front lines. Without her and others like her we would never be successful in this war.

Missy your kind words made me cry. Thank you so much for reaching out, it truly means a lot.

 

[Caligems]

Yeah I don't think so. The way my aunt told this to me was just like that. The ER physician said they were not going out to the stores or anything but taking walks. And wearing masks. And yet they became infected and died. And she said every single day she sees young healthy people at her hospital succumb to Covid 19. That is all I know. Needless to say after the chat with my aunt yesterday afternoon I might have shed a few tears. I get emotional when I hear the tragedy happening everywhere on a daily basis.

I wonder if vaping by so many young people, plays a factor in the numbers We are seeing in the youth?

 

[missy]

I wonder if vaping by so many young people, plays a factor in the numbers We are seeing in the youth?

From speaking with my aunt when she said young people she meant (I think) people not just in their twenties and thirties but forties (and fifties maybe). Being 54 myself I consider 50s young lol. But yeah I know relatively speaking it isn't young. 50 is considered the youth of old age but I digress.

I don't think vaping is the reason we are seeing relatively young people die but I guess it is possible. We just don't have all the facts. It will be years to get all the facts.

 

[Arcadian]

State of Florida is asking for public comment to make decisions to open the state. I'm very much for this, I would like to see what people are thinking here.

But yes, its very complicated. States have to balance whats acceptable to not kill off the economy. And lets be real, without that it will be straight pandemonium.

Here, it depends on where you are, some hospitals like in my area are pretty busy, others which are further out from the epicenter aren't.

We'll have a round 2 and 3 of this stuff I would not doubt it a bit.

 

[nala]

I wonder if vaping by so many young people, plays a factor in the numbers We are seeing in the youth?

I would also think that lack of access to preventative health care bc many young people don’t have health insurance and some may be like my 21 yr old daughter who does have it, but has to threatened to actually make time to get an annual check-up!

 

[BMI]

In case anyone is curious, here are some stats from Kern county in California where the two doctors in the above video reside.

 

[BMI]

Also, "the population of Kern County, CA is 54% Hispanic or Latino, 33.4% White Alone, and 5.26% Black or African American Alone. N/A% of the people in Kern County, CA speak a non-English language, and 87.1% are U.S. citizens."

Sorry, I forgot the links above.

Kern County, CA | Data USA

In 2023, Kern County, CA had a population of 910k people with a median age of 32.4 and a median household income of $67,660. Between 2022 and 2023 the population of Kern County, CA grew from 906,883 to 910,433, a 0.391% increase and its median household income grew from $63,883 to $67,660, a...

datausa.io

COVID-19 Dashboard - Kern County Public Health

Interactive Map by Zip Code

kernpublichealth.com

 

[arkieb1]

So the 2 x doctors are in an area with a median age of 32 years of age..... no wonder the numbers they are seeing are lower than everywhere else. If you took their clinic and moved it to say New York then they would have a very different story to tell.....

 

[Bonfire]

So the 2 x doctors are in an area with a median age of 32 years of age..... no wonder the numbers they are seeing are lower than everywhere else. If you took their clinic and moved it to say New York then they would have a very different story to tell.....

Indeed, or Chicago

 

[Bonfire]

With all do respect, these two urgent care doctors are not ER docs or ICU staff at city hospitals. Numbers can always be manipulated. No, Covid-19 is not like the seasonal flu.

 

[nala]

So one of the local beaches is protesting because Newsom closed it. I have to tell you, these beach lovers are not respecting social distancing nor wearing masks. We took a drive down the coast the other day and throngs of people were just socializing in close proximity and no... they were not family members. The same city that is holding the protest is planning to sue Newsom.

 

[Arcadian]

So one of the local beaches is protesting because Newsom closed it. I have to tell you, these beach lovers are not respecting social distancing nor wearing masks. We took a drive down the coast the other day and throngs of people were just socializing in close proximity and no... they were not family members. The same city that is holding the protest is planning to sue Newsom.

Someone also decided to sue DeSantis for closing beaches... but hey, right now they're doing a trial run. most of the snowbirds are gone now so should not be too hard to social distance. The beach for me might just be out of the question this year (until end of July because there's so few people on it then!)