Sapphire prices for 2009?

[sparkles]

There''s been alot of conflicting talk on PS about the possibility of diamond prices coming off....

Would any experts like to opine on where sapphire prices may be heading, if anywhere.

I''m particularly interested in non heat treated, medium, quality blue sapphires, 4ct and under. As country of origin is also a factor when determining prices, we can throw that into the equation.

As the methodology for pricing diamonds and sapphires are like night and day, this conversation could be redundant.

But given the sure possiblity of a deeper recession in 2009, one would assume that gem prices and supply should be affected or manipulated somehow.

 

[Harriet]

I''ve asked several dealers about gem prices this year and next. The consensus seems to be that they''re unsure. We''ll know more after Tucson, I suspect.

 

[sparkles]

Thanks Harriet. Please keep me posted with your findings....with reference to the "Show" do you mean it will set the tone in terms of what people are willing to pay for goods and whether trade is willing to negotiate?..I would love to come to the show. Would be interesting to see the turnout this year!

Harriet I know you are always stealthily searching for "STUFF".

I was looking at a heated sapphire and one vendor discouraged me by saying,"The fact is that heated sapphire material historically and categorically loses it's value in the size and quality you are considering". I was looking around the 3- 4ct mark.

I wonder what the response would be if I start a thread with the above statement? I somehow don't think responses would be favourable.

 

[sparkles]

I went back to the vendors site to see the stone they were encouraging me to buy is still available......hmm

 

[Sagebrush]

Sparkles,

SAPPHIRE MARKET PRICES

Lets narrow the discussion to blue sapphire. I think that is what you are asking about. If you ask a dealer, stones are always more difficult to find and prices are always rising. Blue Sapphire prices, particularly for untreated stones have been rising steadily and dramatically for the past five years. I think consumers are getting smarter. At the same time, new treatment technology has increased the supply of diffused stones, particularly in smaller sizes where lab testing is not routinely done due to cost. Lower quality and sub-carat diffused stones are now frequently sold as "heated" or "heat only". For that reason lower quality stones have not increased much in price.

Country of origin is not an important factor in pricing of lower grades. At the high end, a Madagascar blue might sell at 5-10% less than a comparable Sri Lankan gem, but that is nonsense, a distinction without a difference that exists due only to branding and market snobbery.

The counter force to all of this is the current state of the economy. Sellers are cutting margins to make sales and the effect of the recession in all markets is beginning to blow-back onto suppliers. There is blood in the water, but even the sharks are broke. This year's Tucson shows will be interesting as in the old Chinese curse. "May you live in interesting times" I will be there for two weeks and I predict it will be a painful experience for vendors. If you have the cash, 2009 will be a great year.

Happy New Year,

 

[sparkles]

Richard, thanks for taking the time to answer my questions. I have been lurking around your site today...I must order your book.

Love the faceting and color of your 3.84ct color change sapphire. Pity I am looking for something a little more elongated and non-color change. I''m not partial to any purple in a stone.

I will hang back and wait to see what happens until I am a little more in the know. Most of the stones I have personally seen have massive windows. I will have to find a vendor in Singapore that has good quality inventory where I can get an idea of color, zoning, saturation etc.

I agree with you that the madagascars are really worth considering.

It would be fabulous to get some feedback on what happens at the show.

Thankyou

 

[Harriet]

Hi Sparkles,
I will keep you posted. Incidentally, the colour change in Richard''s sapphire makes it all the more valuable. I''ve seen it and it''s a beauty.