Owning a Car Will Soon Be as Quaint as Owning a Horse

[qubitasaurus]

Yeah, I picked up on that too, the "I was SO spot on about cell phone adoption so I must be right about this" preening. Because predicting the widespread adoption of (slightly)novel technology/gadgetry that is heavily advertised is always such a stretch, and I'm sure she was the ONLY one to see it.

I think it rankles me for a few different reasons, besides being anacdotal it

a) it sounds like selective self reporting. In the sense that someone could make 1000 predictions for the new milenium. 999 of them could be obsurd and have never eventuated, and 1 of them could be that landlines will be mostly replaced by mobiles and the articld would remain prima facie correct. I assume most of the readers would not feel as confident in the author's credability as a source though...

b) why is it even relevent? They really don"t even try to establish any links between the two incidents. If they want to use one case to support the other, then they need a causal model to argue why one is relevent to the other.

c) it actually seems like they might be using the cell phone article to eatablish credentials. Like they were right before so this establishes their capacity to comment on the future of car ownership. Whereas if this is the best qualification they have for commenting on trends in sales in the automobile industry then the baseline for this conversation should be skepticism and they should work to substantiate their claims with suitable supporting data.

The question is interesting. I could not read the article though, it just did not make logical sense to me. I get the feeling I can not do any good in this thread though, and am likely just to write things which will be unpopular.

But for what it is worth I completely agree with you.

 

[ksinger]

I can see car sharing being a way to avoid car ownership for people who live in more spread out areas. I have to admit...i would love to switch out my car on a regular basis. Oh, all the sports cars I would drive!

Perhaps for a very few, but I see too many problems with it for it to become a "thing" of any real heft.
And as much as I might love it, I'm thinking someone sharing his Mazerati with me is probably not going to happen.

Really, all of these strategies are only practical where people are packed pretty densely, and where you don't live ridiculous distances from groceries, jobs, hospitals, and even gas pumps. Basically, cities that grew up AFTER the advent of the car - and in my case that would be OKC and surrounding areas - are going to be prone to urban sprawl in a big way, (because space! LAND! and creating suburbs further and further out because running away from the black kids infiltrating my kid's school!) So, there are very few places here that have anything that could be considered a neighborhood market area. Often there is a significant drive "into town" for people who are on the edges. Just for instance, my route to work was 17 miles one way which made me pretty close by many people's standards, and there is virtually no mass transit (that will get you anywhere), and virtually no bike lanes (that will actually get you anywhere). Bike riding around here is therefore pretty dangerous.

The only thing that will change the culture around here and drive people from the edges back IN, and maybe MAYBE start changing the infrastructure to favor mass transit and such things as car sharing, would be sustained high prices of gasoline.

 

[vintageloves]

I would love not to have a car. But there are no sidewalks, no bike paths, no public transportation and the grocery store is 5 miles away.

 

[CoolKat]

I was without car for 5 years before moving to my current city & I was LOVING IT! The buses were so convenient & I could just get on/off without worrying about parking or driving directions! I am so bad with directions - even my GPS gave up on me ("Follow the route, turn around, turn around...") I walked a lot & was at my healthiest (& skinniest? ) because of all my buses adventures!

But the buses here are far between. I still ride the buses when I need to (DF needs the car etc) but we won't be able to without car. Only have one Costco/Walmart/Target (Tiffany, Cartier, etc ) & they are all 50 min away

I am hopeful for this next job I am pursuing - it'd be near our house so I'd be able to walk home everyday! So excited for this!

 

[princessandthepear]

There are many trends that are now accepted as normal. Some take and some do not. My mother grew up in homes with no bathroom. Her father would add a bathroom in each home that they lived in. They also did not own a home. She said that they rented and moved every two to three years. This was a common practice in this rural area.
Even people of my age remember when children walked to and from school. Had free, unstructured time to play. Now children are driven every where and their time is structured by adults. Is this good or bad? Are we exposing them to new experiences or creating an adult who doesn't know what to do when their schedule is deviated?
As for cars. They are a necessity here. This is a rural area and the majority of jobs are 50 minutes away along with medical specialists. Grocery stores and shops are not to be found in all small towns here.

 

[strawrose]

Since it’s the New York Times, I can see that from their geographic perspective. However in the middle of nowhere, people will still need cars.

I, myself, take the train everyday to work. No regrets.

 

[tigertales]

Either way, someone, somehow has to drive SOMETHING to get anyone anywhere within significant mile radius.
But I'm always amazed when I pass miles and miles of cars with one person in it while I'm in the HOV lane with my kids. Really efficient, updated, clean and safe public transport should have been a priority for our nation decades ago.

 

[hoofbeats95]

This will not happen for me in my lifetime. I don't live anywhere close to any public transportation. I have a 34 mile commute to work and there is no other way to get there. I suspect in major cities this may certainly be a trend. I have a friend in a city and her husband doesn't have a driver's license. So yeah. . . maybe personal car ownership will slide. But for me, it's cheaper to own a car than to pay for an uber everywhere. . . assuming an uber would even come to my house. (Doubtful) Oh and I also own a horse, truck and trailer. No downsizing is going to happen anytime soon. I do see the pros of this though. Certainly less pollution. So kudos to those that live in areas that can make this reality.