House of Cards

[DiamanteBlu]

CNBC [no, not a typo

] broadcasted a documentary on the mechanics leading to the meltdown we are currently experiencing. DH woke me up at 1AM so I could see the second half of it last night. I was impressed with what I saw. Now I need to see the 1st half!

If you want to gain an understanding of what triggered the current "situation" the program will be rebroadcast [at least in my area] on CNBC at 7PM and 10PM EST.

 

[Dancing Fire]

watched last night. a few yrs ago i posted on PS,i said....within the next few yrs we will see the biggest mortgage default in history.

 

[JulieN]

I didn''t watch the program, but this article gives history, warnings, and legislation since 2007.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/20090213/bs_bw/0908b4120034085635;_ylt=AkmnywPyjzsZ89OI4ldQRaqyBhIF

 

[DiamanteBlu]

Date: 2/13/2009 6:55:41 PM
Author: Dancing Fire
watched last night. a few yrs ago i posted on PS,i said....within the next few yrs we will see the biggest mortgage default in history.

DF, you were so right!!! DH has been saying the same thing. You guys need to meet! He has a very good track record. Among other things he had be sell ALL my stock holdings. I initially resisted but I did sell everything on 2/2/00. Good call! LOL!

He has since made other calls, some of which we have been able to take advantage.

It is interesting [to me anyway] that back in 1996, when I was considering to get back into the "work force" [employee - EEEEEK! Luckily it was a temporary lapse], I wound up flying to NYC to talk to Nomura Securities [and a couple of others] about the possibility of joining their derivatives divisions [the math PhD work and the MBA coupled with the M&A experience was of interest to them - and probably the professorship too]. In any case, I was like - huh? you guys are doing what? And you want me to model it how? Surely you jest. Needless to say, I did not go to work for them in spite of the high remuneration. After seeing half of that show last night, I am so glad I told them to take a hike [No, wishful, I am not being "disingenuous" - I say what I mean and I mean what I say.]. They may have made a lot of bucks in that arena [I used a different vehicle to do the same] but at least I can look myself in the mirror [and I still have my passive income streams. LOL!]

DH and I are currently assessing the situation to see where the opportunities are. I cannot say with clarity just yet what one ought to look at. Buying hard assets [and taking delivery as I have said before] I still believe to be a prudent strategy. And, just today, we started the [bottom fishing] real estate search at the high end of the market.

What is your thinking, DF [and others]?

 

[DiamanteBlu]

Date: 2/13/2009 6:58:17 PM
Author: JulieN
I didn''t watch the program, but this article gives history, warnings, and legislation since 2007.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/20090213/bs_bw/0908b4120034085635;_ylt=AkmnywPyjzsZ89OI4ldQRaqyBhIF

Thanks for the link, JulieN! It is very interesting . . . if it had not been mortgage defaults, it would have been something else that would have triggered this. I am not yet ready to post my commentary because I have not yet completed my analysis. I am concerned that when I do complete it, it will be too long to post! [I tend to be thorough!]

I need my secretary back to take dictation! AAACK!

 

[Beacon]

Date: 2/13/2009 7:14:42 PM
Author: DiamanteBlu

Date: 2/13/2009 6:55:41 PM
Author: Dancing Fire
watched last night. a few yrs ago i posted on PS,i said....within the next few yrs we will see the biggest mortgage default in history.

DF, you were so right!!! DH has been saying the same thing. You guys need to meet! He has a very good track record. Among other things he had be sell ALL my stock holdings. I initially resisted but I did sell everything on 2/2/00. Good call! LOL!

He has since made other calls, some of which we have been able to take advantage.

It is interesting [to me anyway] that back in 1996, when I was considering to get back into the ''work force'' [employee - EEEEEK! Luckily it was a temporary lapse], I wound up flying to NYC to talk to Nomura Securities [and a couple of others] about the possibility of joining their derivatives divisions [the math PhD work and the MBA coupled with the M&A experience was of interest to them - and probably the professorship too]. In any case, I was like - huh? you guys are doing what? And you want me to model it how? Surely you jest. Needless to say, I did not go to work for them in spite of the high remuneration. After seeing half of that show last night, I am so glad I told them to take a hike [No, wishful, I am not being ''disingenuous'' - I say what I mean and I mean what I say.]. They may have made a lot of bucks in that arena [I used a different vehicle to do the same] but at least I can look myself in the mirror [and I still have my passive income streams. LOL!]

DH and I are currently assessing the situation to see where the opportunities are. I cannot say with clarity just yet what one ought to look at. Buying hard assets [and taking delivery as I have said before] I still believe to be a prudent strategy. And, just today, we started the [bottom fishing] real estate search at the high end of the market.

What is your thinking, DF [and others]?

This is interesting. I have heard a couple other people say this. Why take delivery? Fear that the financial institution holding the asset will fail or do you think we are going to a barter economy?

 

[Dancing Fire]

DB IMO...

https://www.pricescope.com/community/threads/imo-the-next-big-hit-for-banks-will-be.104768/

 

[DiamanteBlu]

Date: 2/13/2009 7:39:29 PM
Author: Beacon

Date: 2/13/2009 7:14:42 PM

Author: DiamanteBlu

Date: 2/13/2009 6:55:41 PM

Author: Dancing Fire

watched last night. a few yrs ago i posted on PS,i said....within the next few yrs we will see the biggest mortgage default in history.

DF, you were so right!!! DH has been saying the same thing. You guys need to meet! He has a very good track record. Among other things he had be sell ALL my stock holdings. I initially resisted but I did sell everything on 2/2/00. Good call! LOL!


He has since made other calls, some of which we have been able to take advantage.


It is interesting [to me anyway] that back in 1996, when I was considering to get back into the ''work force'' [employee - EEEEEK! Luckily it was a temporary lapse], I wound up flying to NYC to talk to Nomura Securities [and a couple of others] about the possibility of joining their derivatives divisions [the math PhD work and the MBA coupled with the M&A experience was of interest to them - and probably the professorship too]. In any case, I was like - huh? you guys are doing what? And you want me to model it how? Surely you jest. Needless to say, I did not go to work for them in spite of the high remuneration. After seeing half of that show last night, I am so glad I told them to take a hike [No, wishful, I am not being ''disingenuous'' - I say what I mean and I mean what I say.]. They may have made a lot of bucks in that arena [I used a different vehicle to do the same] but at least I can look myself in the mirror [and I still have my passive income streams. LOL!]


DH and I are currently assessing the situation to see where the opportunities are. I cannot say with clarity just yet what one ought to look at. Buying hard assets [and taking delivery as I have said before] I still believe to be a prudent strategy. And, just today, we started the [bottom fishing] real estate search at the high end of the market.


What is your thinking, DF [and others]?

This is interesting. I have heard a couple other people say this. Why take delivery? Fear that the financial institution holding the asset will fail or do you think we are going to a barter economy?

You want to take delivery because you can''t trust anybody to hold it for you. The alternative is to trust the custodian. There are no trustworthy custodians when it comes to gold. The defining question is, how vulnerable do you want to be to malfeasance on the part of your custodian?

The reason gold is the preferred medium of exchange, unit of account, and STORE OF VALUE is because it can best perform the functions of money because of its high density, not of weight or mass, but of value. You want to have it because you can.

A ton of gold is a cube, 15" on a side. So, it does not get in the way. That gives you, at $1000/oz, $24 millionish. I would rather have that than and size pile of FRNs.

Bottom line - take delivery of whatever amount you acquire.

 

[DiamanteBlu]

Date: 2/13/2009 8:09:19 PM
Author: Dancing Fire
DB IMO...


https://www.pricescope.com/community/threads/imo-the-next-big-hit-for-banks-will-be.104768/

Yup. Thanks for the link. I had not seen the thread. [BTW, I hope that my post of "Fool," was in good humor! I love your posts. You just asked somebody to try to offend you!

. BTW, "Fool," is called a Ming [from its origin] in our household.]

I have been looking at properties in Panama [Panama City and some private islands] for diversification purposes. They seem to be heading into the toilet too. And there is some nice stuff there.

I wonder what's up for Isla Moin, the mega-marina on the Caribbean cost of Costa Rica. They were supposed to have broken ground in the last 1/4 of 2008. Very cool project. I'll have to give them a call when they get back from the Miami Boat show to see what's up.

WooHoo! This is worldwide opportunity for those that have cash and understand how to leverage opportunity!

 

[Beacon]

Thank goodness.

I mean thank goodness that you don''t think we''ll end up in a barter economy. I have heard that gold custodians may not be reliable. I am not experienced in that area though. Thank you for explaining this to me.

 

[Dancing Fire]

actually, silver would be a better buy,but silver takes more storage space. when spot price of gold was @ $850 an oz in Jan 1980...silver spot price was @ $54 per oz.

 

[Beacon]

Couldn''t you just buy the etf GLD?

I recall gold is very tricky - must be assayed and packed correctly. I think there are many ways to get cheated on that.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 2/13/2009 7:14:42 PM
Author: DiamanteBlu

Date: 2/13/2009 6:55:41 PM
Author: Dancing Fire
watched last night. a few yrs ago i posted on PS,i said....within the next few yrs we will see the biggest mortgage default in history.

DF, you were so right!!! DH has been saying the same thing. You guys need to meet! He has a very good track record. Among other things he had be sell ALL my stock holdings. I initially resisted but I did sell everything on 2/2/00. Good call! LOL!

He has since made other calls, some of which we have been able to take advantage.

wish i was that smart

 

[DiamanteBlu]

Date: 2/13/2009 8:31:50 PM
Author: Dancing Fire
actually, silver would be a better buy,but silver takes more storage space. when spot price of gold was @ $850 an oz in Jan 1980...silver spot price was @ $54 per oz.

Yes, silver, totally! My bad. I should have mentioned that. Great call DF - thanks for keeping me in line! Sometimes I don''t completely write what I mean [blush]. It is creeping up. What''s it at? $13.?? I have not tracked it today. For delivery it may be a tad more. But - same advice - take delivery. Again, at even $13.??/oz, it is still a compact store of value.

PT may be interesting too.

 

[DiamanteBlu]

Date: 2/13/2009 8:50:07 PM
Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 2/13/2009 7:14:42 PM

Author: DiamanteBlu

Date: 2/13/2009 6:55:41 PM

Author: Dancing Fire

watched last night. a few yrs ago i posted on PS,i said....within the next few yrs we will see the biggest mortgage default in history.

DF, you were so right!!! DH has been saying the same thing. You guys need to meet! He has a very good track record. Among other things he had be sell ALL my stock holdings. I initially resisted but I did sell everything on 2/2/00. Good call! LOL!

He has since made other calls, some of which we have been able to take advantage.

wish i was that smart

He is uncannily good. Of course, it is all based on analysis of fundamentals. He bounces everything off of me because I have the professorial, business and investment banking credentials.

But, you know, it is great to see that you are right in hindsight [especially when you bet everything] but you still need to hedge.

If you do it properly you should be in great shape.

I know that I don''t need to tell you this, DF, because you are very astute, but be very careful about what the talking heads say and make sure you read between all the lines [or even read the text of this POS "stimulus" ROTFL package - but I digress.]

Those of us that understand and pay attention will be in great shape as long as we are able to generate sufficient cash flow [KEY] to take advantage of the opportunities that are presenting themselves all over the place.

To me the key is to do WEIT to generate huge cash flow and then to sit and wait [internationally] until the time is right to pounce on your desired asset class.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 2/13/2009 8:44:49 PM
Author: Beacon
Couldn''t you just buy the etf GLD?

I recall gold is very tricky - must be assayed and packed correctly. I think there are many ways to get cheated on that.

yes, GLD suppose to track very close to 1/10 oz of gold. if you want to hold physical gold...1 oz Maple leaf would be the way to go.

 

[DiamanteBlu]

Date: 2/13/2009 8:44:49 PM
Author: Beacon
Couldn''t you just buy the etf GLD?

I recall gold is very tricky - must be assayed and packed correctly. I think there are many ways to get cheated on that.

Nope. No paper. Gold.

I buy krugerrands. I have not bought bullion yet. I like to stick with the K''s. They are 1oz each and are easy to buy and sell with a very low commission rate. They are easy to store.

I know nothing about numismatics so I don''t venture into that arena.

I guess I am kinda like Buffet - I only invest in that in which I understand.

 

[Beacon]

Are your Ks in hard plastic holders and come with an assay cert?

 

[DiamanteBlu]

Date: 2/13/2009 9:02:28 PM
Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 2/13/2009 8:44:49 PM

Author: Beacon

Couldn''t you just buy the etf GLD?

I recall gold is very tricky - must be assayed and packed correctly. I think there are many ways to get cheated on that.

yes, GLD suppose to track very close to 1/10 oz of gold. if you want to hold physical gold...1 oz Maple leaf would be the way to go.

We have found the Krugerrands to work well. I have no experience with the Maple Leaf so I cannot comment [although I am sure DH could - should I get him to play on the boards?]

. I would expect that it would be a reasonable option [unless there is something I don''t know!]

 

[DiamanteBlu]

BTW, DF, are you in the US or are you elsewhere?

 

[DiamanteBlu]

Date: 2/13/2009 9:07:53 PM
Author: Beacon
Are your Ks in hard plastic holders and come with an assay cert?

Yup, the plastic holders are there but they are usually a sleeve containing 10 coins. I guess you would get a single plastic holder if you buy one coin at a time, perhaps? DH has been buying and selling through the same dealer for decades. I do not know about the assay certificate for each coin. He would probably know more than me. Krugerrands are his purview. Gold sheet and wire, etc. [for goldsmithing and jewelry making] are my purview.

I will post some of my work one of these decades! LOL!

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 2/13/2009 8:50:58 PM
Author: DiamanteBlu

Date: 2/13/2009 8:31:50 PM
Author: Dancing Fire
actually, silver would be a better buy,but silver takes more storage space. when spot price of gold was @ $850 an oz in Jan 1980...silver spot price was @ $54 per oz.

Yes, silver, totally! My bad. I should have mentioned that. Great call DF - thanks for keeping me in line! Sometimes I don't completely write what I mean [blush]. It is creeping up. What's it at? $13.?? I have not tracked it today. For delivery it may be a tad more. But - same advice - take delivery. Again, at even $13.??/oz, it is still a compact store of value.

PT may be interesting too.

i was in a friend's coin shop maybe like 15 yrs ago

doing some coin business,that day the spot price of platinum closed $1 per oz. lower than spot gold.

 

[Beacon]

I had some experience with gold in 1980. I had some bullion and sold it. I am sure I don''t need to tell you how things were then. The public were very active speculators. What I recall was that some got quite cheated by the dealers. I had bullion that looked like this and had no difficulty selling. Since that time I never dealt with gold. That is why I don''t know the best methods for dealing in it now.

 

[DiamanteBlu]

Right now, platinum is waaaay low wrt to gold historically. Pt is hanging out around a tad above Au. Ag is also whacked in comparison.

In order of preference I would look into Au, then Ag, and then PT - not sure about worrying about anything else - those are markets that I do not track.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 2/13/2009 9:10:12 PM
Author: DiamanteBlu
BTW, DF, are you in the US or are you elsewhere?

yes,i''am in the US.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 2/13/2009 9:08:33 PM
Author: DiamanteBlu

Date: 2/13/2009 9:02:28 PM
Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 2/13/2009 8:44:49 PM

Author: Beacon

Couldn''t you just buy the etf GLD?

I recall gold is very tricky - must be assayed and packed correctly. I think there are many ways to get cheated on that.

yes, GLD suppose to track very close to 1/10 oz of gold. if you want to hold physical gold...1 oz Maple leaf would be the way to go.

We have found the Krugerrands to work well. I have no experience with the Maple Leaf so I cannot comment [although I am sure DH could - should I get him to play on the boards?]

. I would expect that it would be a reasonable option [unless there is something I don''t know!]

don''t really matter...bullion gold is bullion gold,they all worth the same per net troy oz. K-rands,MLs, American Eagles,Chinese Pandas...

 

[Beacon]

Do you guys think that gold can be the next mania investment? It sort of feels like it can happen, we are early days yet but perhaps that is the direction.

 

[DiamanteBlu]

Date: 2/13/2009 9:22:27 PM
Author: Beacon
I had some experience with gold in 1980. I had some bullion and sold it. I am sure I don''t need to tell you how things were then. The public were very active speculators. What I recall was that some got quite cheated by the dealers. I had bullion that looked like this and had no difficulty selling. Since that time I never dealt with gold. That is why I don''t know the best methods for dealing in it now.

Yeah, I remember the frenzy - and the was when $800 was worth something! LOL!

For now I am sticking with the trusted source of K''s. They are low margin and you know the purity. I''d suggest finding a coin dealer and check out the reputation.

I have been half-thinking that I should get back into my jewelry business [Gioielanza.com]. The site is not up. My tools are in storage. But I''m thinking that something really cool could be done. I have some killer bench jewelers that will execute the designs [they tend to be important, sleek and contemporary]. Yeah, I''m babbling . . . but one of these days I will need to put up a killer site with pieces designed to take advantage of the market conditions!

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 2/13/2009 9:22:27 PM
Author: Beacon
I had some experience with gold in 1980. I had some bullion and sold it. I am sure I don''t need to tell you how things were then. The public were very active speculators. What I recall was that some got quite cheated by the dealers. I had bullion that looked like this and had no difficulty selling. Since that time I never dealt with gold. That is why I don''t know the best methods for dealing in it now.

what do you mean by cheated?

 

[Beacon]

Date: 2/13/2009 9:36:53 PM
Author: DiamanteBlu

Date: 2/13/2009 9:22:27 PM
Author: Beacon
I had some experience with gold in 1980. I had some bullion and sold it. I am sure I don''t need to tell you how things were then. The public were very active speculators. What I recall was that some got quite cheated by the dealers. I had bullion that looked like this and had no difficulty selling. Since that time I never dealt with gold. That is why I don''t know the best methods for dealing in it now.

Yeah, I remember the frenzy - and the was when $800 was worth something! LOL!

For now I am sticking with the trusted source of K''s. They are low margin and you know the purity. I''d suggest finding a coin dealer and check out the reputation.

I have been half-thinking that I should get back into my jewelry business [Gioielanza.com]. The site is not up. My tools are in storage. But I''m thinking that something really cool could be done. I have some killer bench jewelers that will execute the designs [they tend to be important, sleek and contemporary]. Yeah, I''m babbling . . . but one of these days I will need to put up a killer site with pieces designed to take advantage of the market conditions!

It is such a vivid memory for me. I had good luck just by coincidence. The day I could get into town to sell was pretty much the top. THere were people standing out in the street to buy gold. It was a physical introduction to what a market top looks like. But I felt bad for some people cause they got cheated and I saw it happen.

Since then I own stocks. I normally don''t like metals, no income, no utility. Some stocks from that time pay annually in dividends my whole cost basis. But now, well, it might just be that time again for the metal.