Hey DF, remember your thread about $100k?

[Phoenix]

You asked if one was to have $100k spare, would they invest it in a diamond, a property (a very very small piece of), the S&P index and gold bullion.

Just wondering which option would have fared best and which worst?

(You can tell I have far too much free time! LOL)

 

[Dancing Fire]

my guess with $100k invested in the past 5 yrs...

the best would be gold bullion
the worst would be the S&P 500

 

[VRBeauty]

Hmmm... the original thread:

https://www.pricescope.com/community/threads/pick-one-of-the-following-which-one-for-you.110787/

has been closed. However, DF first posed his question on March 24, 2009. Based on yesterday's closes, here's how the stock market and gold market have fared in the interim:

DJIA yesterday: 8299.86
DJIA March 24: 7659.97
DIA change: +8 %

Gold yesterday 937.95
Gold March 24: 923.30
Gold change: + 2 %

Housing prices -- who knows?

I'm still comfortable with my choce.

But at this point, things could still flip in a moment. Only time will tell...

(Can you tell it's my day off???

)

 

[VRBeauty]

Date: 6/25/2009 11:55:12 AM
Author: Dancing Fire
my guess with $100k invested in the past 5 yrs...


the best would be gold bullion

the worst would be the S&P 500

Cluck! Cluck! Cluck! Cluck! That wasn't exactly the question!

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 6/25/2009 3:33:26 PM
Author: VRBeauty
Hmmm... the original thread:

https://www.pricescope.com/community/threads/pick-one-of-the-following-which-one-for-you.110787/

has been closed. However, DF first posed his question on March 24, 2009. Based on yesterday''s closes, here''s how the stock market and gold market have fared in the interim:

DJIA yesterday: 8299.86
DJIA March 24: 7659.97
DIA change: +8 %

Gold yesterday 937.95
Gold March 24: 923.30
Gold change: + 2 %

Housing prices -- who knows?

I''m still comfortable with my choce.

But at this point, things could still flip in a moment. Only time will tell...

(Can you tell it''s my day off???

)

how about the S&P ?

house are selling in Ca but at a lower price.

 

[VRBeauty]

how about the S&P ?

OK, OK...

S&P yesterday: 900.94
S&P March 24: 806.12
S&P change: +12 %

I've been betting on the wrong index!

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 6/25/2009 3:59:17 PM
Author: VRBeauty

how about the S&P ?

OK, OK...

S&P yesterday: 900.94
S&P March 24: 806.12
S&P change: +12 %

I''ve been betting on the wrong index!

if it make you feel any better...
i been shorting the financials in the past two months.

 

[VRBeauty]

Today's closes, with gains or losses measured against the March 24, 2009 close, also known as the Dancing Fire Index (DFI)--

DJIA close: 8472.40 DJIA DFI: +10.6
Gold close*: 939.1 Gold DFI: +0.4
S&P 500 close: 920.26 S&P DFI: +14.16

* Got my earlier gold figures wrong. Should have been -- 3/24: 928, 6/24: 935, DF: 0.75%

 

[Beacon]

Date: 6/25/2009 7:09:13 PM
Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 6/25/2009 3:59:17 PM
Author: VRBeauty

how about the S&P ?

OK, OK...

S&P yesterday: 900.94
S&P March 24: 806.12
S&P change: +12 %

I''ve been betting on the wrong index!

if it make you feel any better...
i been shorting the financials in the past two months.

DF - you stop out those short positions - too expensive!

Anyhow your MSFT is recovering some.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 6/26/2009 2:04:18 AM
Author: VRBeauty
Today''s closes, with gains or losses measured against the March 24, 2009 close, also known as the Dancing Fire Index (DFI)--

DJIA close: 8472.40 DJIA DFI: +10.6
Gold close*: 939.1 Gold DFI: +0.4
S&P 500 close: 920.26 S&P DFI: +14.16

* Got my earlier gold figures wrong. Should have been -- 3/24: 928, 6/24: 935, DF: 0.75%

btw; the market hit bottom on our anniversary date.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 6/26/2009 2:14:44 AM
Author: Beacon



DF - you stop out those short positions - too expensive!

Anyhow your MSFT is recovering some.

my rich Beacon friend

i know you are making a killing.

my break even point on MSFT is 29.98

losing my A$$ on VLO @ 32.50, bought some more @ 18.10

 

[zhuzhu]

Where is Tradergirl when we need her?

 

[VRBeauty]

Date: 6/26/2009 2:19:13 AM
Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 6/26/2009 2:04:18 AM

Author: VRBeauty

Today's closes, with gains or losses measured against the March 24, 2009 close, also known as the Dancing Fire Index (DFI)--



DJIA close: 8472.40 DJIA DFI: +10.6

Gold close*: 939.1 Gold DFI: +0.4

S&P 500 close: 920.26 S&P DFI: +14.16

* Got my earlier gold figures wrong. Should have been -- 3/24: 928, 6/24: 935, DF: 0.75%

btw; the market hit bottom on our anniversary date.

Better be careful how you break that news to your wife!

And since you (sort of) asked about the price of houses:

The median price of houses in Sacramento as of today (5-wk average): 248,750
The median price of houses in Sacramento in March 2009: 243,292
Sacramento housing DFI: +0.02

Trust me, you don't want to know what those medians were for March 2008, 2007, or 2006!

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 6/26/2009 2:28:14 AM
Author: zhuzhu
Where is Tradergirl when we need her?

said she was a short seller a couple days ago.

 

[VRBeauty]

Date: 6/26/2009 2:26:39 AM
Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 6/26/2009 2:14:44 AM

Author: Beacon



DF - you stop out those short positions - too expensive!

Anyhow your MSFT is recovering some.

my rich Beacon friend

i know you are making a killing.

my break point even on MSFT is 29.98

losing my A$$ on VLO @ 32.50, bought some more @ 18.10

And when the price of LUV fell by almost half after 9-11, I thought it was time to buy into a company that I had missed out on the first time around!

I still "believe in" Southwest, but I haven't been brave enough to buy more LUV stock now that it's down to half of what I paid for it the first time around... not to mention less than 25% of the going rate when I first started tracking it!

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 6/26/2009 2:28:54 AM
Author: VRBeauty

Date: 6/26/2009 2:19:13 AM
Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 6/26/2009 2:04:18 AM

Author: VRBeauty

Today''s closes, with gains or losses measured against the March 24, 2009 close, also known as the Dancing Fire Index (DFI)--



DJIA close: 8472.40 DJIA DFI: +10.6

Gold close*: 939.1 Gold DFI: +0.4

S&P 500 close: 920.26 S&P DFI: +14.16

* Got my earlier gold figures wrong. Should have been -- 3/24: 928, 6/24: 935, DF: 0.75%

btw; the market hit bottom on our anniversary date.

Better be careful how you break that news to your wife!

And since you (sort of) asked about the price of houses:

The median price of houses in Sacramento as of today (5-wk average): 248,750
The median price of houses in Sacramento in March 2009: 243,292
Sacramento housing DFI: +0.02

Trust me, you don''t want to know what those medians were for March 2008, 2007, or 2006!

i remember...it top out at $398K in spring of 2006. i could of easily sold my house for 550K in the spring of 06.

 

[zhuzhu]

I admire those of you with patience and guts to play in the stock market. I am too chicken to even check my 401K these days....

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 6/26/2009 2:43:59 AM
Author: zhuzhu
I admire those of you with patience and guts to play in the stock market. I am too chicken to even check my 401K these days....

believe me, i ain''t got nothing to brag about lately.

 

[Beacon]

Date: 6/26/2009 2:19:13 AM
Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 6/26/2009 2:04:18 AM
Author: VRBeauty
Today''s closes, with gains or losses measured against the March 24, 2009 close, also known as the Dancing Fire Index (DFI)--

DJIA close: 8472.40 DJIA DFI: +10.6
Gold close*: 939.1 Gold DFI: +0.4
S&P 500 close: 920.26 S&P DFI: +14.16

* Got my earlier gold figures wrong. Should have been -- 3/24: 928, 6/24: 935, DF: 0.75%

btw; the market hit bottom on our anniversary date.

Oh my, that must have been an odd anniversary! I remember that day, feeling....like everyone just flushed every stock down the toilet. It was almost a physical thing.

So maybe buy a dividend paying stock like KMB, people still use Kleenex -

 

[Abril]

Date: 6/26/2009 2:43:59 AM
Author: zhuzhu
I admire those of you with patience and guts to play in the stock market. I am too chicken to even check my 401K these days....

Don''t play in the stock market. INVEST. it''s easy to do.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 6/26/2009 9:34:56 AM
Author: Abril

Date: 6/26/2009 2:43:59 AM
Author: zhuzhu
I admire those of you with patience and guts to play in the stock market. I am too chicken to even check my 401K these days....

Don't play in the stock market. INVEST. it's easy to do.

easy?? in what??

to me investing = gambling.

 

[Abril]

Date: 6/26/2009 1:46:10 PM
Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 6/26/2009 9:34:56 AM

Author: Abril

Date: 6/26/2009 2:43:59 AM

Author: zhuzhu

I admire those of you with patience and guts to play in the stock market. I am too chicken to even check my 401K these days....

Don''t play in the stock market. INVEST. it''s easy to do.

easy?? in what??

to me investing = gambling.

From reading your old posts, it''s easy to understand why you would feel that investing = gambling. You believe in individual stock selection, market timing, and chasing performance. All of these things lead to buying high and selling low. Maybe not literally but your returns would be a lot lower than they could be. Since the March 9, 2009 low, the S&P has risen 36% (no bank could ever match that kind of interest rate). All you had to do was invest in an S&P index fund or ETF on March 9 and watch your money grow by 36% (even more if you reinvested dividends). Easy.

I know. You can''t predict the future and it''s only in hindsight that March 9 was the low. So what? 36% is just the theoretical upper limit on returns. If you get 32% or 28% or 23% growth, I''m sure most of us would be perfectly happy with that.

What you do is gambling. What my husband and I do is investing.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 6/28/2009 6:41:59 PM
Author: Abril

From reading your old posts, it''s easy to understand why you would feel that investing = gambling. You believe in individual stock selection, market timing, and chasing performance. All of these things lead to buying high and selling low. Maybe not literally but your returns would be a lot lower than they could be. Since the March 9, 2009 low, the S&P has risen 36% (no bank could ever match that kind of interest rate). All you had to do was invest in an S&P index fund or ETF on March 9 and watch your money grow by 36% (even more if you reinvested dividends). Easy.

I know. You can''t predict the future and it''s only in hindsight that March 9 was the low. So what? 36% is just the theoretical upper limit on returns. If you get 32% or 28% or 23% growth, I''m sure most of us would be perfectly happy with that.

What you do is gambling. What my husband and I do is investing.

now you tell me.

Abril
you can call it whatever you want,but to me the NYSE is the biggest casino in the world.if you are expecting a return of 25%,30%....you are gambling,investing in the stock market is gambling,period !!!

 

[Lady_Disdain]

Date: 6/28/2009 6:59:02 PM
Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 6/28/2009 6:41:59 PM
Author: Abril


From reading your old posts, it''s easy to understand why you would feel that investing = gambling. You believe in individual stock selection, market timing, and chasing performance. All of these things lead to buying high and selling low. Maybe not literally but your returns would be a lot lower than they could be. Since the March 9, 2009 low, the S&P has risen 36% (no bank could ever match that kind of interest rate). All you had to do was invest in an S&P index fund or ETF on March 9 and watch your money grow by 36% (even more if you reinvested dividends). Easy.

I know. You can''t predict the future and it''s only in hindsight that March 9 was the low. So what? 36% is just the theoretical upper limit on returns. If you get 32% or 28% or 23% growth, I''m sure most of us would be perfectly happy with that.

What you do is gambling. What my husband and I do is investing.

now you tell me.

Abril
you can call it whatever you want,but to me the NYSE is the biggest casino in the world.if you are expecting a return of 25%,30%....you are gambling,investing in the stock market is gambling,period !!!

I agree with April, actually. Buying and selling blindly, trying to time the market, etc without a lot of experience is gambling. You pick a number and hope it comes up. An experienced trader watches the market carefully for certain signs and identifies a good (not the best!) time to buy or sell. Doing research, picking a strategy and implementing is not gambling. Even a beginner can choose a strategy and follow it, getting both money and knowledge as a result. Sure, no one wins them all, but I know I have had a very good return on my investment every year, including last year.

To a layperson, it may seem like gambling: "Why was that index or stock or hedging strategy chosen? It must be just luck." It isn''t. It is all about keeping your cool, not being too greedy and not reacting impulsively (very hard, sometimes!).

 

[Phoenix]

Date: 6/25/2009 3:38:14 PM
Author: VRBeauty

Date: 6/25/2009 11:55:12 AM
Author: Dancing Fire
my guess with $100k invested in the past 5 yrs...


the best would be gold bullion

the worst would be the S&P 500

Cluck! Cluck! Cluck! Cluck! That wasn''t exactly the question!

That''s right, that wasn''t my Q, DF!

Interesting, everyone. I did my masters in Finance and there''re all kinds of interesting and sometimes conflicting theories about the stock market and its performance. IMHO, it *is* investing with a bit of gambling (=luck) involved.

 

[Abril]

Date: 6/28/2009 6:59:02 PM
Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 6/28/2009 6:41:59 PM

Author: Abril



From reading your old posts, it's easy to understand why you would feel that investing = gambling. You believe in individual stock selection, market timing, and chasing performance. All of these things lead to buying high and selling low. Maybe not literally but your returns would be a lot lower than they could be. Since the March 9, 2009 low, the S&P has risen 36% (no bank could ever match that kind of interest rate). All you had to do was invest in an S&P index fund or ETF on March 9 and watch your money grow by 36% (even more if you reinvested dividends). Easy.


I know. You can't predict the future and it's only in hindsight that March 9 was the low. So what? 36% is just the theoretical upper limit on returns. If you get 32% or 28% or 23% growth, I'm sure most of us would be perfectly happy with that.


What you do is gambling. What my husband and I do is investing.

now you tell me.

Abril

you can call it whatever you want,but to me the NYSE is the biggest casino in the world.if you are expecting a return of 25%,30%....you are gambling,investing in the stock market is gambling,period !!!

Good. More money for us then!

By the time your neighbors have left you in the dust, it'll be too late to get back into the market and get meaningful returns. Looks like you'll have to wait for the next bear market.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 6/29/2009 12:28:24 PM
Author: Abril

Good. More money for us then!

By the time your neighbors have left you in the dust, it''ll be too late to get back into the market and get meaningful returns. Looks like you''ll have to wait for the next bear market.

that''s what my neighbors said in Oct of 07 when the DOW hit 14,000.

anyhow, every investment is gambling unless your $$$''s are in the bank collecting, what ? 3.5% CD?

 

[Abril]

Date: 6/29/2009 1:01:43 PM
Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 6/29/2009 12:28:24 PM

Author: Abril



Good. More money for us then!

By the time your neighbors have left you in the dust, it'll be too late to get back into the market and get meaningful returns. Looks like you'll have to wait for the next bear market.

that's what my neighbors said in Oct of 07 when the DOW hit 14,000.

anyhow, every investment is gambling unless your $$$'s are in the bank collecting, what ? 3.5% CD?

Yep, the worst time to get into the market is when everyone is investing. Thankfully, the market crashed right after Oct 2007. It allowed us to invest heavily and now we're reaping the extraordinary benefits.

BTW, leaving your money in a bank is a gamble too. Your dollars might not keep pace with inflation and all the interest you earn is taxable.... The inflation risk scares me more than the stock market.

 

[lovegem]

Abril, when did you enter the market? From What I know only those enter the market earlier this year were able to make money. Most people's stock are just like their houses, still under water.

 

[Abril]

Date: 6/29/2009 3:00:24 PM
Author: lovegem
Abril, when did you enter the market? From What I know only those enter the market earlier this year were able to make money. Most people's stock are just like their houses, still under water.

The good news is that the market will eventually recover and most people's stocks will get back to even and probably enter positive territory, especially if a bull market is sustained.

We've been in the market for a while but in the present downturn had entered much more aggressively. We practiced a modified version of dollar cost averaging--if the market drops further, put in even more money. It wasn't easy to throw hard-earned cash into a declining market, but we checked our emotions at the door and kept the faith. It's paying off now.

Buy low, sell high: so easy to say, so hard to do.