Colored gems at risk of shortages?

[Cerulean]

I am curious - what are gems that you PSers expect will be possibly mined to extinction or are at risk of shortages or might be subject to outrageous demand in the next generation or two? Or maybe in a matter of years?

Market value for stones seems interestingly subjective and something I don't have a firm grasp of at all - I have yet to wrap my head around all of the complexities of colored stones and how those complexities dictate price, for instance popularity/demand, supply chain issues, marketing, quality of the stone versus quality of the cut versus quality of the color, etc. And then of course, there is rarity. I have always wondered how much true rarity of a mineral dictates value and if some of the more expensive types of colored gemstones in the market are truly the most rare or scarce.

Kashmir sapphires come to mind as an example of what I am thinking of. I.e. The mine just ran out, coupled with coveted characteristics have left a gaping hole in the market versus demand for the stones.

Tanzanites also come to mind as a possibility in the future, and yet, their price per carat, if this is true, feels shockingly cheap.

I am just curious about all of this and find it really interesting! If this is a thread that is redundant - please let me know! This is also just for fun and I am happy to hear responses that are based on no more than gut feel / suspicions.

 

[Bron357]

Old mine Burmese rubies.
The current Burmese mines are just not producing the same quality ruby so the old mine rubies are highly sought,
Paraiba Tourmaline,
I believe the source has also been depleted increasing costs and availability of gems, particularly larger size gems.
Australian opal.
There are those that say the current findings are not the same quality or size as found in previous decades.
Tanzanite
Yes only found in one source but the gem itself is almost always heated to get the color. And as a more brittle gem it is not recommended for everyday wearing rings. Sapphires are considered a more versatile gem. More than a few is the unfortunate person who has had their Tanzanite chip during setting.
Pink Diamonds
Definately, the Arygle mine is due to close and it is basically the only source there is for Pink diamonds.

 

[qubitasaurus]

Russian alexanderite is all gone.

Kashmiri sapphire and original deposits of burmese rubies I believe are the same. Luc yen cobalt spinel seems to be gone as well.

I assume paraiba tourmaline and russian demantoid garner are going the same way.

I am not sure tanzanite is going anywhere anytime soon. It does come out of the ground muddy brown, it's rare for it to come out nice (maybe they mean the unheated stuff is rare. But I am not sure there is much point hoarding it in the hope itll go up in value).

 

[arkieb1]

Luc Yen cobalt spinels can still be found they are just super rare and expensive. It will be interesting to see if they ever allow the ones in Canada to be mined so far no one can get them....

The government closed the main mines in Mahenge and is trying to sell them (probably to Asian interests) that means the prices of Mahenge spinels and some garnets and anything else out of there will go up. All activity was shut down late last year, they were not allowing people to even trade the stones for many months, but it has opened up again in small numbers at the moment.

One of the big Tsavorite mines was sold to Asian interests so again that will go up in pricing.

Decent unoiled Paraiba is always difficult to get and is still going up in price. Most of the well priced pieces have been oiled and treated, even though many vendors claim they are not.....

Jedi Spinel from the Namya mines was super expensive and difficult to find most of last year because of the local war going on around the mining area. Lately there have been stones coming out of there again...

It is claimed the Aussie Argyle mines (that produce pinks, champagnes, cognacs, reds and the occasional blue) will be mined out soon....

And as the others have suggested many stones have been mined out, Kashmir Sapphires, old material Burma rubies and Alexandrite, the original Paraiba tourmaline..... Some of the gemstones that come from Russian mines also are probably in the same category.

 

[arkieb1]

If you want to generally know what is difficult and expensive to buy;

Kashmir sapphires, any mid to light coloured electric cornflower blue sapphires, mid to dark electric blue sapphires, neon red spinel, any neon spinel, untreated Burmese rubies, untreated top coloured paraiba, Alexandrite.... some of the rarer African garnets have been going up price wise too... Pink diamonds.

There are many more types of stones, but they are the things I particularly look at.

 

[Cognition]

1. old mined mogok ruby for sure, but we have the new Mozambique ruby which can be as beautiful as the old mogok ruby, and it come with much lower price tag

2. alexandrite. havent heard new finding since the last hematite rush

3. paraiba. another gem in the same condition as alex

4. russian demantoid. I heard the iranian demantoid has the same color, saturation, and horsetail tho

5. imperial jadeite. dont think this one need much explaination

6. lightning ridge black opal

7. red-pink diamond. esp after the closure of argye mine

8. mahenge & jedi spinel

9. kashmir sapphire; but not sure about this one, the newly found Madagascar kashmir like sapphire might become sth like mozambique for ruby. Not sure about its productivity and sustainability tho

10. benitoite . this one is mean for niche market, but I love the sparkling of the medium tone benitoite. It is like looking at blue diamond at fraction of fancy diamond price tag

 

[jordyonbass]

Mintabie Opal will be very hard to find from vendors soon, the town has been decommissioned and mining is no longer occurring there.

You're going to have a lot of trouble finding good Gem Crystal Opal from Andamooka soon as well, most of the good stuff came out of the ground decades ago and it's already hard enough for cutters like myself to get any of the good stuff. I've only got a handful of pieces left in my rough stock and I'm sweating on whether I will see any again as it's my favourite Opal to cut.

 

[Nosean]

There is still a second market....

 

[lilmosun]

Not sure if they count because they are small and fragile, but faceted hauyne from Eifel Germany have become hard to get and quite expensive. For color, they were one of my favorites for use in halos

 

[Nosean]

Yes, Hauyne becomes harder and harder to find. Pezzottaite, Benitoite and too. We will see whether there is a constant production of gemmy Grandidierite (not the included material) in the next years.

 

[Cerulean]

This is all really interesting - thanks for sharing your knowledge! many of them i had never heard of.

Hauyne looks SO beautiful!

I wondered why Mahenge garnets and Jedi spinels seem more coveted than other counterparts on PS.

Interesting how political climate and acquisition of mines impacts rarity as well...

So many richly colored gems - sad to think that many of them might be scarce in coming years and hope that what is left is cherished!

 

[Nick_G]

Surely tomorrow will be a good day to buy a 'Jedi' spinel.

May the 4th be with you!

 

[lilmosun]

This is all really interesting - thanks for sharing your knowledge! many of them i had never heard of.

Hauyne looks SO beautiful!

I wondered why Mahenge garnets and Jedi spinels seem more coveted than other counterparts on PS.

Other than diamonds and corundum (sapphires/rubies), spinels are a lot more durable.

 

[lilmosun]

Pezzottaite

That reminds me, there is also the more included Red Beryl/Bixbite.

 

[shelovesinclusions]

Luc Yen cobalt spinels can still be found they are just super rare and expensive. It will be interesting to see if they ever allow the ones in Canada to be mined so far no one can get them....

Wow. Looking for information on Canadian Cobalt spinel took me down a rabbit hole.

 

[Cerulean]

Wow. Looking for information on Canadian Cobalt spinel took me down a rabbit hole.

A LOT of this took me down multiple rabbit holes

 

[Cerulean]

And my wishlist also just got a WHOLE lot longer LOL

 

[Karl_K]

Buy what you love and stay away from rabbit holes.

 

[Cerulean]

Buy what you love and stay away from rabbit holes.

Wise words! It is also just interesting and fun for me to think about! I love history and research, hence the original question. Not necessarily trying to hoard the "rarest" stones or anything like that.