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Are you worried about the Coronavirus?

Mamabean

Ideal_Rock
Joined
Mar 31, 2018
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7,191
Question. Since Covid 19 is airborne should we keep our windows closed?
From what I understand @missy it is safe to be outside....as long as we keep a wide distance..at least six feet away from another person. I would definitely stay more than that...I will cross the street if I see another person outside. I haven’t even been in front of my house but I go into my screened porch which is pretty much being outside...I also go into my back yard to walk Bailey..I think it’s airborne in a building because you can walk through a cloud if someone coughs. It can’t travel across a street or even ten feet so an open window would be safe...
@MakingTheGrade What do you think?
 

Mamabean

Ideal_Rock
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PreRaphaelite

Ideal_Rock
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Feb 2, 2015
Messages
2,167
One of my grad school buddies (seven years later, the "GWU Deviants Society" group text is still going strong) is in New Jersey and her doctor said there are no tests available. She's had fever and malaise for two weeks and has self-isolated and worked from home the whole time, but others in her office were also sick. Her doctor can't help, beyond telling her to go to the ER if her shortness of breath becomes unbearable.

She's a significant person to me, and it is so hard to see her struggle alone. She's in her 40's but those numbers don't really matter anymore, do they? I'm staying calm but I worry for her.
 

missy

Super_Ideal_Rock
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Jun 8, 2008
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33,799
One of my grad school buddies (seven years later, the "GWU Deviants Society" group text is still going strong) is in New Jersey and her doctor said there are no tests available. She's had fever and malaise for two weeks and has self-isolated and worked from home the whole time, but others in her office were also sick. Her doctor can't help, beyond telling her to go to the ER if her shortness of breath becomes unbearable.

She's a significant person to me, and it is so hard to see her struggle alone. She's in her 40's but those numbers don't really matter anymore, do they? I'm staying calm but I worry for her.
I’m so sorry and sending lots of healing dust her way. It’s very scary. Hoping she recovers fully. (((Hugs))).

In NJ right now they’re mainly testing health care workers. NY & NJ are short on all supplies and tests. :(
 

Mamabean

Ideal_Rock
Joined
Mar 31, 2018
Messages
7,191
Glad you’ve lived a life where you’re not regularly physically threatened or assaulted. Sad to say just today I had a very angry man get in my face about my race and gender. He tried to grab me. Luckily I was close to a shop and stepped in. Would he have actually hurt me? Maybe and maybe not. Chances are he was just trying to scare me. But assaults happen in my city all the time over dumb things. I wasn’t about to “be brave” about it though, it was scary. It’s happened to me countless times, it’s always scary. It’s ok if someone or something scares you, to mitigate your risk appropriately.

I agree people shouldn’t do bad things and bully each other or worse. Doesn’t mean they don’t and doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be aware and make informed decisions and be vigilant.
This is so frightening to me...I’m so happy you are okay...It’s so hard to understand why someone would do something like that...Philly is a bit scary...The hospital area is much better but obviously still scary...Pepper spray is a great idea...
 

telephone89

Ideal_Rock
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Aug 29, 2014
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3,772
@voce One issue with looking at the recovered vs death numbers is the tests. You have to use a whole new test to show "recovered", and in the extreme lack of tests available in some areas they aren't focusing on that. If you're well enough to leave, you can go home, but they aren't "wasting" a test to prove that when it could go to diagnosing someone.
 

voce

Ideal_Rock
Joined
May 13, 2018
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3,149
@voce One issue with looking at the recovered vs death numbers is the tests. You have to use a whole new test to show "recovered", and in the extreme lack of tests available in some areas they aren't focusing on that. If you're well enough to leave, you can go home, but they aren't "wasting" a test to prove that when it could go to diagnosing someone.
The lack of tests is only affecting some countries, not China or South Korea, for example. As I stated before, the true numbers will converge over time, and I expect the death rate to come down over time as we get more data. However, in the interim, I'd rather take a more pessimistic view than a foolishly over-optimistic one.
 

TooPatient

Ideal_Rock
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Sep 1, 2009
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8,868
I wonder if we will ever truly know how many people were infected and how many died. Tests are in short supply. They are being saved (rightly so) for those on the front lines and certain people who are deemed to really need. That means there are likely many mild or moderate cases that aren't being diagnosed. People are assuming it is just because they can't actually know. Some are probably other strains of flu or cold. Others who aren't symptomatic aren't getting counted at all. I also wonder how many of the pneumonia/flu/URI/etc deaths are actually this virus. I don't know if anyone is testing posthumously now with the shortage of tests.
 

voce

Ideal_Rock
Joined
May 13, 2018
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3,149
IMO the people that need to be diagnosed the most are the moderate cases, before it has progressed to the most severe form. As we saw from ER doctor notes, it's pointless when patients come in needing ventilators...they're not making it. Treatment needs to start at an earlier stage to be effective. What use is it to diagnose only those who are not likely to make it?
 

TooPatient

Ideal_Rock
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IMO the people that need to be diagnosed the most are the moderate cases, before it has progressed to the most severe form. As we saw from ER doctor notes, it's pointless when patients come in needing ventilators...they're not making it. Treatment needs to start at an earlier stage to be effective. What use is it to diagnose only those who are not likely to make it?
They are also more likely to be spreading it. Those who are really sick are likely home and miserable. Those with mild symptoms are likely out and about figuring it is just allergies or a bit of a cold.
 

MakingTheGrade

Super_Ideal_Rock
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Joined
Mar 2, 2009
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11,194
IMO the people that need to be diagnosed the most are the moderate cases, before it has progressed to the most severe form. As we saw from ER doctor notes, it's pointless when patients come in needing ventilators...they're not making it. Treatment needs to start at an earlier stage to be effective. What use is it to diagnose only those who are not likely to make it?
I think testing is reserved for people who are going to be admitted to the hospital because knowing whether that is the cause or not will affect things like where you are roomed, what PPE staff needs to wear (and if they need to be monitored or tested themselves if there is a PPE breach), what treatment might work best/what to avoid and what to watch for. Many of the times in the ED, when they are admitting someone that person is “moderate” and you don’t know for sure yet who will be “severe” and need a ventilator. And if they do need a ventilator right from the EMT, you need to test them to know after the fact if they are covid positive so you know if they can share a room (or
In some cases a ventilator now) with a covid patient and if staff needs quarantine/testing.

We need more tests so we can actually test everyone. Until then, for the safety of the patient, other patients in the hospital, and staff, the tests are prioritized to patients getting hospitalized.

Some places do offer drive through testing if your doc writes a prescription it just depends on where you are. Even then priority is given to people in healthcare (to prevent them going to work with it) and those at higher risk.
 

Mamabean

Ideal_Rock
Joined
Mar 31, 2018
Messages
7,191
She’s been inside. She stocked up. She’s very smart. She’s done everything right. It’s a scary virus. Thank goodness she’s ok.
That’s really scary that she got it after being inside...Wow...TG she‘s okay..
 

cmd2014

Ideal_Rock
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Joined
Aug 6, 2014
Messages
2,494
Question. Since Covid 19 is airborne should we keep our windows closed?
We are not being told that Covid-19 is airborne here. We are being advised that it is transmitted through droplet transmission, which is why the 6 foot distancing recommendations are being made. Droplet transmission means that if someone coughs or sneezes, they spray droplets into the air that land on you and you breathe in. The droplets have to get into your nose, eyes, and respiratory tract to infect you. But they don't stay alive long outside of the body, nor do they stay suspended in the air for large amounts of time remaining infectious. Airborne pathogens are something different altogether. They're things like measles, TB, and chickenpox. This is more like SARS, rhinovirus, and Influenza.
 

whitewave

Ideal_Rock
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Feb 29, 2012
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9,629
I think testing is reserved for people who are going to be admitted to the hospital because knowing whether that is the cause or not will affect things like where you are roomed, what PPE staff needs to wear (and if they need to be monitored or tested themselves if there is a PPE breach), what treatment might work best/what to avoid and what to watch for. Many of the times in the ED, when they are admitting someone that person is “moderate” and you don’t know for sure yet who will be “severe” and need a ventilator. And if they do need a ventilator right from the EMT, you need to test them to know after the fact if they are covid positive so you know if they can share a room (or
In some cases a ventilator now) with a covid patient and if staff needs quarantine/testing.

We need more tests so we can actually test everyone. Until then, for the safety of the patient, other patients in the hospital, and staff, the tests are prioritized to patients getting hospitalized.

Some places do offer drive through testing if your doc writes a prescription it just depends on where you are. Even then priority is given to people in healthcare (to prevent them going to work with it) and those at higher risk.
We are now doing 100 (?) tests a day on the general public at several locations. No doctor note needed. Only factor is you have to have a fever of 100.4 or higher when you drive up.
 

yssie

Super_Ideal_Rock
Premium
Joined
Aug 14, 2009
Messages
20,519
I read this account from a young doc in training in NYC and cried. I wish there was a boot camp to retrain me for icu and vent care. If things get really bad, there might end up being one..
I really hope that doesn’t happen though. As much as I’m itching to be frontline and helping, drafting in sub specialists will have meant the US lost a huge amount of physician workforce.

Link:
3 days in nyc
This was beyond horrifying.
And I’m so SO ANGRY reading it.

The CDC guidelines are utterly asinine. “Don’t wear a mask” - because there’s a shortage, not because it’s not a bloody good idea for every single person to be using one. Use a scarf or a bandana.

The vast majority of our administration should just be lined up and coughed on and left to their own damn devices. Just like they’ve decided to do to their countrymen.

... And people are going out for a morning coffee? Seriously!? For God’s sake - your actions are contributing to people dying. Yes, being stuck at home sucks. Yes, it’s abnormal. But if you haven’t been tested how do you know you aren’t a silent carrier? How do you know that you aren’t going to infect the next person you speak to unnecessarily, the next person you touch unnecessarily, the next person near you when you cough or clear your throat?

To all those refusing to obey the spirit of “shelter in place”: Grow up. Your community, your healthcare workers, your essential services providers, your senior citizen loved ones really need you to grow the F up.
 
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TooPatient

Ideal_Rock
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Joined
Sep 1, 2009
Messages
8,868
This was beyond horrifying.
And I’m so SO ANGRY reading it.

The CDC guidelines are utterly asinine. “Don’t wear a mask” - because there’s a shortage, not because it’s not a bloody good idea for every single person to be using one. Use a scarf or a bandana.

The vast majority of our administration should just be lined up and coughed on and left to their own damn devices. Just like they’ve decided to do to their countrymen.

... And people are going out for a morning coffee? Seriously!? For God’s sake - your actions are contributing to people dying. Yes, being stuck at home sucks. Yes, it’s abnormal. But if you haven’t been tested how do you know you aren’t a silent carrier? How do you know that you aren’t going to infect the next person you speak to unnecessarily, the next person you touch unnecessarily, the next person near you when you cough or clear your throat?

To all those refusing to obey the spirit of “shelter in place”: Grow up. Your community, your healthcare workers, your essential services providers, your senior citizen loved ones really need you to grow the F up.
Yes to all! Especially the grow the F up section. People are driving me freaking crazy going about like it is no big deal.
 

BMI

Shiny_Rock
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
153
In NJ right now they’re mainly testing health care workers.
New Jersey reported 1,949 new cases from 8pm Thursday to 8pm Friday...... I am really praying that is not mostly health care workers! :(
 

lissyflo

Brilliant_Rock
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Joined
May 23, 2016
Messages
909
New Jersey reported 1,949 new cases from 8pm Thursday to 8pm Friday...... I am really praying that is not mostly health care workers! :(
The trend across most European countries is for cases to double in number around every two to three days. The same for the number of deaths, although they are doubling at a slightly faster rate. That’s a huge number for New Jersey on presumably a fairly small population compared to a country though. While I knew in my head that virus outbreaks are exponential, I think it’s the first time most of us have seen in practice how terrifying that actually is when you think about the numbers. And I agree it’s heart-breaking and morally wrong that healthcare workers are fighting this on the frontline, under-resourced and woefully under-protected.

Social distancing is the only way we can take back control. A young,healthy 21 year old recently died here. Her aunt made a powerful statement to stay home except for emergencies/essentials - “It’s not the virus spreading, it’s people spreading the virus”. Too true.
 
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missy

Super_Ideal_Rock
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33,799
New Jersey reported 1,949 new cases from 8pm Thursday to 8pm Friday...... I am really praying that is not mostly health care workers! :(
And NY Covid 19 cases are climbing even faster. Scary fast. I am praying all our front line people remain well and can help everyone get through this. They did not sign up for this and they are brave beyond belief. I hope they get the PPEs they need ASAP and that they also get all the ventilators they need. What this world is going through is surreal and what our country (and others) is dealing with in terms of shortage of everything necessary to save lives is horrific.
 

missy

Super_Ideal_Rock
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Jun 8, 2008
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33,799
This was beyond horrifying.
And I’m so SO ANGRY reading it.

The CDC guidelines are utterly asinine. “Don’t wear a mask” - because there’s a shortage, not because it’s not a bloody good idea for every single person to be using one. Use a scarf or a bandana.

The vast majority of our administration should just be lined up and coughed on and left to their own damn devices. Just like they’ve decided to do to their countrymen.

... And people are going out for a morning coffee? Seriously!? For God’s sake - your actions are contributing to people dying. Yes, being stuck at home sucks. Yes, it’s abnormal. But if you haven’t been tested how do you know you aren’t a silent carrier? How do you know that you aren’t going to infect the next person you speak to unnecessarily, the next person you touch unnecessarily, the next person near you when you cough or clear your throat?

To all those refusing to obey the spirit of “shelter in place”: Grow up. Your community, your healthcare workers, your essential services providers, your senior citizen loved ones really need you to grow the F up.
I agree completely @yssie
I vacillate between being so disappointed and then angry at people who are eschewing the shelter in place orders. It's like they are living in a fantasy world. I see so many on the streets not practicing social distancing and I very much doubt everyone is out getting necessary supplies or exercising with great caution.

The complete disregard for others welfare is shocking to say the least and criminal if we want to be real about it.
 

kipari

Ideal_Rock
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Jan 9, 2015
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2,032
I agree completely @yssie
I vacillate between being so disappointed and then angry at people who are eschewing the shelter in place orders. It's like they are living in a fantasy world. I see so many on the streets not practicing social distancing and I very much doubt everyone is out getting necessary supplies or exercising with great caution.

The complete disregard for others welfare is shocking to say the least and criminal if we want to be real about it.
This, @missy !

I have to say it HAS sunken in here. But also in France it took some time. The first stay at home order came on Thursday night (3/7). When people didn't comply adaequately , the following Monday Président Macron installed the lockdown in another speech.

Tuesday the people who hadn't prepared had a bout of panic buying, but since about Wednesday it's really calm. I have taken the kids out into the woods twice since 3/7. I have done grocery shopping twice (9 people, so produce management is hard).

DH is essential, unfortunately, so working
 

missy

Super_Ideal_Rock
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This, @missy !

I have to say it HAS sunken in here. But also in France it took some time. The first stay at home order came on Thursday night (3/7). When people didn't comply adaequately , the following Monday Président Macron installed the lockdown in another speech.

Tuesday the people who hadn't prepared had a bout of panic buying, but since about Wednesday it's really calm. I have taken the kids out into the woods twice since 3/7. I have done grocery shopping twice (9 people, so produce management is hard).

DH is essential, unfortunately, so working
I think of you often because you have a larger family and I worry about those with larger families getting adequate supplies. I hope you are managing to get what you need and continue to manage to get all the supplies you need.

I feel you re your DH continuing to work outside the home. Both my sister (severe asthma) and my BIL (well over 60 yo) are considered essential and have to work outside the home full time. So I worry a lot about everyone (parents elderly and not well health wise-mom immunocompromised and 86 yo dad lots of underlying health issues including HTN, thyroid and severe asthma).

I am keeping optimistic as best I can and hoping for the best. It seems like a bad dream and I just want us all to wake up from it very soon and go back to safer times. Praying that happens sooner vs later but realistically knowing we are in it for the long haul. Hoping for the best.
 

kipari

Ideal_Rock
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Jan 9, 2015
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2,032
I think of you often because you have a larger family and I worry about those with larger families getting adequate supplies. I hope you are managing to get what you need and continue to manage to get all the supplies you need.

I feel you re your DH continuing to work outside the home. Both my sister (severe asthma) and my BIL (well over 60 yo) are considered essential and have to work outside the home full time. So I worry a lot about everyone (parents elderly and not well health wise-mom immunocompromised and 86 yo dad lots of underlying health issues including HTN, thyroid and severe asthma).

I am keeping optimistic as best I can and hoping for the best. It seems like a bad dream and I just want us all to wake up from it very soon and go back to safer times. Praying that happens sooner vs later but realistically knowing we are in it for the long haul. Hoping for the best.
It's so sweet of you to keep us in your thoughts, @missy ! We're doing very well so far. No shortages of anything at all, except that one first Monday-Wednesday debacle, when everyone started to realize. Grocery deliveries are another matter, those are really busy and I feel I should leave those to the elderly, immuno compromised and sick.

DH has asthma too.. Can't say I don't worry about him, my mom, his parents (all respiratory issues..)

thinking of you often as well ...NY is hit hard.
sending dust to you and your family
 

missy

Super_Ideal_Rock
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It's so sweet of you to keep us in your thoughts, @missy ! We're doing very well so far. No shortages of anything at all, except that one first Monday-Wednesday debacle, when everyone started to realize. Grocery deliveries are another matter, those are really busy and I feel I should leave those to the elderly, immuno compromised and sick.

DH has asthma too.. Can't say I don't worry about him, my mom, his parents (all respiratory issues..)

thinking of you often as well ...NY is hit hard.
sending dust to you and your family
Thank you @kipari, I appreciate that. ❤
 

House Cat

Ideal_Rock
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Feb 22, 2009
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4,002
Good questions here. I'm not including ALL of the people because the VAST MAJORITY of ALL of the people who have coronavirus are in the early stages where no one is YET dying. The closed case statistics have death rates dropping over time, whereas counting ALL the cases leads to death rates that can only rise as more people progress to later stages. Once all of this is over, the numbers will converge, but I'd rather take a more pessimistic initial view that drives me to do something than the overly optimistic view that assumes a too-low death rate, leaving people to feel that they're "fine".

Edit: for example, if you're accepting the crude death rate obtained by diving the total current number of 25,360 deaths by the total current number of cases (559,351 cases), you get a crude death rate of 4.5%. However, there is currently 405,210 active cases where the outcome hasn't been determined that may progress to more deaths among the 405,210 active cases. If you're accepting in your mind the rate of 4.5% as the TRUE death rate, then you're assuming that nobody else will die among the 405,210 currently infected.

My view, however, is that MANY among the 405,210 will die (it's just that the majority of patients haven't yet progressed to the later stages where people start dying), so that 4.5% is a GROSS UNDERESTIMATION of the TRUE death rate.

Another way of saying this is as long as the new infection rate exceeds the recovery rate, it's too early to draw useful statistics from the total number of deaths divided by the total number infected.
Very interesting. So basically, the numbers are a gross exaggeration on either side. If we add the living cases who will have deaths, it will be an underestimation of those deaths but if you just add the cases of deaths without adding the living, you have an overestimation.

We are stuck either way without knowing where we truly stand. :(

I guess we won’t know until all of this is over.
 

MakingTheGrade

Super_Ideal_Rock
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Mar 2, 2009
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Yup. Consistent with prior studies. Most people don’t need to worry about aerosolized virus particles though, yay.
The aerosolization in things like intubation is why hospital staff wear PAPRs when possible and minimize staff in the room as much as safely possible.
 
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