After being SO careful...

[MaisOuiMadame]

ONS has some interesting figures that are worth looking at with regards to deaths in the lower age ranges in the UK.

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, by age, sex, region and Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), in the latest weeks for which data are available.

www.ons.gov.uk

For Week 44 (ending 30th October 2020):

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales/2020/publishedweek442020.xlsx


Total Deaths: 10,887
Covid Deaths: 1,379

(Covid Deaths = where it was mentioned on the Death Certificate)


Deaths within age groups:

	All Causes	Covid
<1	31	0
1-4	6	0
5-9	2	0
10-14	5	0
15-19	15	0
20-24	23	0
25-29	39	1
30-34	48	1
35-39	96	4
40-44	102	6
45-49	160	9
50-54	271	21
55-59	411	31
60-64	513	46
65-69	709	99
70-74	1136	138
75-79	1404	224
80-84	1758	259
85-89	1936	281
90+	2222	259

Population aged 0-65 in England and Wales numbers 49million people:

Population estimates for the UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland - Office for National Statistics

National and subnational mid-year population estimates for the UK and its constituent countries by administrative area, age and sex.

www.ons.gov.uk

The evidence suggests Covid deaths are a fraction of the deaths being recorded generally. Anyone under the age of 65 would seem to be extremely unlucky, and those passing away with no known underlying comorbidities would seem to be extremely rare, when only 119 people died with Covid in a week out of a population of 49,000,000 in that age group, and out of 1,722 dying from all causes in that age group.

That does not take away from the loss felt by those who have passed away at a younger age (or any age), of course, but if the risk of passing away from week to week of Covid at the moment is 119/49,000,000 for the under 65s (and ignoring the fact that figure is basically devoid of deaths under 35 therefore presents effectively zero risk for that subset), that's 0.000243%.

It would therefore seem that no-one in the UK who is in that age group and healthy (or even fairly unhealthy, I would argue, given the figures include all the unhealthy people as well) should be worried about that level of risk.


@Arcadian - I'm sorry to hear about your family's losses - statistically speaking your family must be on the very edge of the 'outliers', but I'm sure that is not really of much comfort. I am wondering to what extent Genetics is influencing the losses we are seeing - perhaps that avenue will be explored in time.



WRT healthcare capacity in the UK, the presentation the PM used to announce lockdown included a graphic with lots of red on it that suggested hospital capacity was at risk of being overrun in (IIRC) 29 hospitals.



If he had used a wider graphic showing all the Trusts, we would have seen that vast swathes of the country have zero Covid admissions (again, IIRC) - so arguably NHS capacity as a whole is nowhere near being overrun by Covid.



(from:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ientist-says-4-000-deaths-graph-NOT-used.html )



A study also appears to be showing that even at the peak of the pandemic earlier in the year, when infections and hospital admissions were far higher than they are today, only a few Trusts experienced capacity issues over 'safe-occupancy' thresholds, and even fewer were nearing/at 100% capacity.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139048v2.full.pdf

It also appears that the 'Nightingale' facilities were pretty much left unused after the massive expenditure on them, even during that (much higher than present) peak - so with that capacity, it appears we were (and still are) more than adequately prepared in terms of bed availability across the country:

Good that the UK looks better atm.

All experts suggest that being an island or further up North (Germany) leaves you more time to prepare. Christian Drosten "the Dr. Fauci " of Germany says this jver and over again.

Look at France.
We have only around 1000 ICU beds left.

Our measures are super strict.
You guys are not there YET

If you never get there it's because the measures work.
Not because COVID is a scam.

I'm at home at a bank holiday with my 6kiss, locked in because of lockdown, so can't fact check your numbers right now.

But like @Arcadian I knew many victims if COVID.

If you're the spouse of one of the 6 victims in the 40-50 age bracket statistics won't comfort you.

As @missy wrote.

And I'd sure be p*ssed off if someone "living life to the fullest "because they can't wear a mask or stay at home for 8 weeks had given my spouse the gift of COVID.

 

[whitewave]

My friend is a CRNA at Mayo. She sent me this article this morning:

“
“The public urgently needs to treat COVID-19 as the health emergency it is to prevent the health care system from being overwhelmed. We are pleading for everyone’s help to wear a mask and follow all public health guidelines to limit the spread of this disease," said Richard Helmers, regional VP; Jason Craig, regional chair of administration and Pam White, chief nursing officer, in a joint statement.

They say 50% of the patients in their full intensive care unit have COVID-19 and 40% of their medical/surgical beds are filled with COVID patients.

In addition, 300 workers are on work restrictions due to COVID-19 exposure.”

Mayo Clinic Health System says area hospitals are 100% full

Officials at Mayo Clinic Health System are giving a dire warning, saying their hospitals are filled to the brim.

wqow.com

 

[OoohShiny]

This was what I was looking for earlier - the ONS data for people passing in Hospital with and without known underlying causes:



1,400 since counting began seems pretty low to me, statistically speaking, in a population of 65 million people.

We'll never know the Infection Fatality Rate, of course - not without comprehensive testing of the whole population. (Although Messrs Johnson and Hancock are working on that...)

 

[OoohShiny]

My friend is a CRNA at Mayo. She sent me this article this morning:

“
“The public urgently needs to treat COVID-19 as the health emergency it is to prevent the health care system from being overwhelmed. We are pleading for everyone’s help to wear a mask and follow all public health guidelines to limit the spread of this disease," said Richard Helmers, regional VP; Jason Craig, regional chair of administration and Pam White, chief nursing officer, in a joint statement.

They say 50% of the patients in their full intensive care unit have COVID-19 and 40% of their medical/surgical beds are filled with COVID patients.

In addition, 300 workers are on work restrictions due to COVID-19 exposure.”

Mayo Clinic Health System says area hospitals are 100% full

Officials at Mayo Clinic Health System are giving a dire warning, saying their hospitals are filled to the brim.

wqow.com

Mayo is in Wisconsin? (My American geography is terrible, lol.)

I think they must be seeing seasonal effects take off now it's getting colder (??)

This chap did an interesting prediction back in October that said it is likely they will see a rise in cases there:

COVID-19 Projections | US | Wisconsin

We take a data-driven approach rooted in epidemiology to forecast infections, deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus epidemic in the US and around the world.

covid19-projections.com

Perhaps they are just only now getting the initial hump in figures that most other states / countries have seen.

 

[whitewave]

New Orleans (where Its been downright tropical and not cool) has had a large jump in numbers in the last week. For a few days, it stemmed from a cluster at Tulane University in New Orleans.

Now, it seems it has jumped from that cluster and is now community spread.

 

[whitewave]

Map from the end of October:



My son’s 21 year old friend from grammar school just announced on FB that she has Covid and every breath she takes feels like her lungs are on fire. She had managed to stay out of the hospital.

 

[chemgirl]

This was what I was looking for earlier - the ONS data for people passing in Hospital with and without known underlying causes:



1,400 since counting began seems pretty low to me, statistically speaking, in a population of 65 million people.

We'll never know the Infection Fatality Rate, of course - not without comprehensive testing of the whole population. (Although Messrs Johnson and Hancock are working on that...)

You’re really adamant that covid is no big deal. Ok fine. You can believe that.

You’re never going to convince everyone else though so I don’t know why you keep trying.

Some of us consider 1,400 healthy people dying to be a source of concern. That’s only in the UK and only those passing in hospital. It’s actually a lot of people if you think about it.

There are also many of us with medical conditions or who care about someone with a medical condition. Your posts seem very callous.

 

[OoohShiny]

Map from the end of October:



My son’s 21 year old friend from grammar school just announced on FB that she has Covid and every breath she takes feels like her lungs are on fire. She had managed to stay out of the hospital.

May I ask if you have a link to the source?

I'm wondering how they are defining 'uncontrolled spread'!

 

[whitewave]

Texas becomes first U.S. state to exceed 1 million coronavirus cases

It has the 10th most cases in the world — more than Italy, per Johns Hopkins.

www.axios.com

“For the record: Over 19,300 people have died from the virus in the state.

• El Paso is an epicenter, with over 65,600 cases and 682 deaths from COVID-19 as of Wednesday morning, per local health data. The Defense Department last week deployed medical teams to the Texas city to help out.
• Dallas County is another hot spot, with some 21% of all emergency department visits being related to COVID-19 as of Monday night. County judge Clay Jenkins tweeted Tuesday that the 1,401 new cases marked the "largest we have ever seen other than days when large backlogs were recorded."

 

[whitewave]

“NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. hit a record number of coronavirus hospitalizations Tuesday and surpassed 1 million new confirmed cases in just the first 10 days of November amid a nationwide surge of infections that shows no signs of slowing.”
(Snipped)

“Newly confirmed infections in the U.S. were running at all-time highs of well over 100,000 per day, pushing the total to more than 10 million and eclipsing 1 million since Halloween. There are now 61,964 people hospitalized, according to the COVID Tracking Project.”

US hits record COVID-19 hospitalizations amid virus surge

NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. hit a record number of coronavirus hospitalizations Tuesday and surpassed 1 million new confirmed cases in just the first 10 days of November amid a nationwide surge of infections that shows no signs of slowing.

apnews.com

 

[whitewave]

May I ask if you have a link to the source?

I'm wondering how they are defining 'uncontrolled spread'!

Sorry, here is today’s map

Tracking Our COVID-19 Response - covidexitstrategy.org

Each state's progress towards a new normal

www.covidexitstrategy.org

 

[Matata]

These 12 States Have Uncontrolled COVID Outbreaks, Doctors Say

Just as the nation's top experts have been warning for months, the COVID-19 situation is increasingly intensifying as we are entering into the coldest seasons of the year. Infections are increasing across the country, with many states breaking their records on a daily basis. As expected, other...

www.yahoo.com

 

[House Cat]

Texas becomes first U.S. state to exceed 1 million coronavirus cases

It has the 10th most cases in the world — more than Italy, per Johns Hopkins.

www.axios.com

“For the record: Over 19,300 people have died from the virus in the state.

• El Paso is an epicenter, with over 65,600 cases and 682 deaths from COVID-19 as of Wednesday morning, per local health data. The Defense Department last week deployed medical teams to the Texas city to help out.
• Dallas County is another hot spot, with some 21% of all emergency department visits being related to COVID-19 as of Monday night. County judge Clay Jenkins tweeted Tuesday that the 1,401 new cases marked the "largest we have ever seen other than days when large backlogs were recorded."

My dearest and oldest friend is an ICU nurse in Dallas. She’s seen what Covid does to people first hand. She and her family are sheltering in place and have been since the lockdowns.

 

[OoohShiny]

Look at France.
We have only around 1000 ICU beds left.

Our measures are super strict.
You guys are not there YET

If you never get there it's because the measures work.
Not because COVID is a scam.

I don't recall anyone on here ever stating Covid-19 is a 'scam'?


I think the other part of this quote is an interesting comment.

France and Spain have ultra-strict lockdowns, with mandatory mask-wearing and (at least in France) travelling further than 1km (0.6m) from your home being presently forbidden (!).

Yet cases have risen quite a lot recently, with hospitalisations and deaths rising at a much lower rate.

But the conclusion appears to be that this is happening despite these measures, not because of the measures?


If I was playing Devil's Advocate I could postulate that posting a graph showing a rise in cases after a release from lockdown would be blamed on that release from lockdown, but posting a graph showing a rise in cases after the introduction of strict population control measures would be blamed on the population not being obedient enough...

I'm at home at a bank holiday with my 6kiss, locked in because of lockdown, so can't fact check your numbers right now.

But like @Arcadian I knew many victims if COVID.

If you're the spouse of one of the 6 victims in the 40-50 age bracket statistics won't comfort you.

As @missy wrote.

And I'd sure be p*ssed off if someone "living life to the fullest "because they can't wear a mask or stay at home for 8 weeks had given my spouse the gift of COVID.

Thank you for your confidence in my directly quoted figures from linked sources

We will have to agree to disagree with the assertion that statistics would not comfort me in a time of loss

I very much feel that each of us humans are lucky to be alive following several billion years of evolution, and I entirely accept that we are squidgy bags of meat that tend to survive through a combination of luck, skill and judgement.

Any other organism on this planet (including viruses) are in a similar situation - we came into existence while being unaware of doing so, and from that point we are all doing our best to survive.

Sometimes that luck runs out, and if 6 seemingly healthy people in the 40-44 age band in a country of 65,000,000 are unlucky enough to catch a new virus and not survive it, and it is being asserted that that figure is unacceptable, I'm not sure what level of risk is acceptable.

Are we saying that that figure should be zero for all age bands?

If so, is that a realistic proposition, in terms of both the realities of life and the mitigation measures that might be required to achieve that aim?

 

[OoohShiny]

Sorry, here is today’s map

Tracking Our COVID-19 Response - covidexitstrategy.org

Each state's progress towards a new normal

www.covidexitstrategy.org

Thank you! I'd not seen that site before, it looks like a useful repository of information.

The 'percent positive' figures are perhaps slightly at risk of being misleading - for example, if a State is testing the entire population and the % +ve figure is rising, that's pretty clearly an uptick, whereas if they are targeting testing only at sections of the population where it is known/expected that rates are higher (e.g. students returning to campus) it would not be unexpected to see a rise in % +ve figures.

It looks like 'caution warranted' might stop at around 75 cases per million and then 'trending poorly' go from there to maybe 150 cases per million and 'out of control' above that 150/1m?

If that is the case, it's interesting to compare the UK approach of looking at 'local lockdown' when local authority areas see cases get to 50 or 100 (IIRC) per 100,000 (so 500-1000 per million).

It would be interesting to do some sort of analysis re: mask-mandating states vs states with no mask mandate but I don't have Excel on this machine!

 

[OoohShiny]

You’re really adamant that covid is no big deal. Ok fine. You can believe that.

You’re never going to convince everyone else though so I don’t know why you keep trying.

Some of us consider 1,400 healthy people dying to be a source of concern. That’s only in the UK and only those passing in hospital. It’s actually a lot of people if you think about it.

There are also many of us with medical conditions or who care about someone with a medical condition. Your posts seem very callous.

Thank you for being so open to discussion and consideration of alternative viewpoints


I feel for people with chronic health conditions - I hate to be ill myself and I'm really not sure how I would cope with long term health problems, physically or mentally. It is entirely understandable that such individuals and those who care about them would be concerned about a new and infectious illness that seems so unpredictably variable in its impacts.


At no point, though, have I stated that Covid is 'no big deal'. I have, however, attempted to understand the wider context and consider the different societal viewpoints and approaches to other causes of death.


1,400 is not a small number of people if you put them all in one place and viewed them in that context, I agree.

But in terms of typical UK death rates, where 1,600 people a day die of something, is an increase to date of 1/365th (0.27%) of the typical yearly totals an outrageous figure for those with no previously known diagnoses?


Here in the UK, around 1,700 people a year are dying on the roads in recent years. Although we are not totally complacent about this figure and various workstreams are of course undertaken to try to reduce that figure over time, as a society it seems that this figure is acceptable as a trade-off for the (generally) free movement of goods and services that are required to run a functioning Developed World society.

If 1,700 deaths per year on the road of (mostly, I imagine) those with no previously known condition is acceptable in order to allow society to function, why is 1,400 not acceptable from Covid-19?

Are we as a society just 'used to' road deaths and accepting of them as 'just something that happens'?


Would we be having this discussion if Covid had also been around for 100+ years and was taking a similar number of people to the transport network currently?

Deaths from influenza are not even accurately recorded / collated / analysed, for example - that would seem to imply that some level of deaths from an infectious respiratory illness is acceptable to society?

If that is the case, what will that level be for Covid-19?



I feel that we as a society must face the realities of risk and death - both are inherent to our very existence and we should feel able to discuss them openly and accept that they exist and will touch us all. I don't believe that is a callous position; more one of realism.

 

[chemgirl]

Thank you for being so open to discussion and consideration of alternative viewpoints


I feel for people with chronic health conditions - I hate to be ill myself and I'm really not sure how I would cope with long term health problems, physically or mentally. It is entirely understandable that such individuals and those who care about them would be concerned about a new and infectious illness that seems so unpredictably variable in its impacts.


At no point, though, have I stated that Covid is 'no big deal'. I have, however, attempted to understand the wider context and consider the different societal viewpoints and approaches to other causes of death.


1,400 is not a small number of people if you put them all in one place and viewed them in that context, I agree.

But in terms of typical UK death rates, where 1,600 people a day die of something, is an increase to date of 1/365th (0.27%) of the typical yearly totals an outrageous figure for those with no previously known diagnoses?


Here in the UK, around 1,700 people a year are dying on the roads in recent years. Although we are not totally complacent about this figure and various workstreams are of course undertaken to try to reduce that figure over time, as a society it seems that this figure is acceptable as a trade-off for the (generally) free movement of goods and services that are required to run a functioning Developed World society.

If 1,700 deaths per year on the road of (mostly, I imagine) those with no previously known condition is acceptable in order to allow society to function, why is 1,400 not acceptable from Covid-19?

Are we as a society just 'used to' road deaths and accepting of them as 'just something that happens'?


Would we be having this discussion if Covid had also been around for 100+ years and was taking a similar number of people to the transport network currently?

Deaths from influenza are not even accurately recorded / collated / analysed, for example - that would seem to imply that some level of deaths from an infectious respiratory illness is acceptable to society?

If that is the case, what will that level be for Covid-19?



I feel that we as a society must face the realities of risk and death - both are inherent to our very existence and we should feel able to discuss them openly and accept that they exist and will touch us all. I don't believe that is a callous position; more one of realism.

Honest question, why are you being sarcastic? What do you gain from being hostile if you simply want to understand a wider context?

 

[AprilBaby]

Pregnant DIL is negative!

 

[Matata]

I have, however, attempted to understand the wider context and consider the different societal viewpoints and approaches to other causes of death.

Then you are comparing apples to asteroids and chasing false correlations. If you're inclined, compare societal viewpoints and approaches only to pandemics because that's where the relevancy resides.

 

[Austina]

Great news @AprilBaby

 

[Matata]

@AprilBaby....Whew! Happy to hear that all of you are fortunate to have dodged the bullet.

 

[OoohShiny]

Honest question, why are you being sarcastic? What do you think you gain from being nasty here?

My intention is not to sound sarcastic - rather I am asking questions openly (rather than directing them to you personally in the form 'Do you feel...') that I would find it interesting to be considered and discussed by other forum members (including yourself), in order that I can increase my understanding of alternative viewpoints and learn new things.

I don't believe I have been 'nasty' (whichever dictionary definition one might use for that term). If my posts have been interpreted in that way, I would ask that the offending sections be identified so I may consider alternative phrasing in future, as it is not my intention.


If I may, though, you did state:

'You’re never going to convince everyone else though so I don’t know why you keep trying.'

so my opening line was admittedly a touch sarcastic / cheeky but that was the point of the smiley at the end of it (and here) - I was acknowledging my sarcastic tone while also referring to the fact that I like discussing this issue (amongst many issues) whereas perhaps you have come across as not wishing to debate this topic (which is totally fine).

For the record, I am not looking to 'convince everyone else' - I am certain that is outside of any limited abilities or skills I might have! - but I am looking to partake in interesting discussion with other parties.

If your mind is already made up, that is perfectly acceptable


Do you (or any other person reading this) feel that I or other members of the forum should not put forward our viewpoints, on this or any other matters, even when they are (to the best of one's ability and with the best of intentions) presented politely, coherently and respectfully?

Do you (or any other person reading this) feel that forum members would rather receive no differing viewpoints to that which they already hold?


These are all honest questions, asked without malice, so I can try to understand where others are coming from.

 

[seaurchin]

Back to the thread topic, so happy that your pregnant DIL tested negative for Covid-19, April Baby.

 

[OoohShiny]

Then you are comparing apples to asteroids and chasing false correlations. If you're inclined, compare societal viewpoints and approaches only to pandemics because that's where the relevancy resides.

I am a little confused.

Are you saying that the outcomes of this pandemic and the response to it can only be considered against previous pandemics and the responses to them?

Or that the outcomes of this pandemic and the responses to it can only be compared with themselves, such as in terms of country vs country?


That would seem to place the pandemic / the response outside of any terms of reference - how can we as society consider what options might exist, and the benefits/disbenefits of them, if we don't also consider how we approach other things?

For example, if spending £100bn a year on 'Project Moonshot' to seek out cases (as in the new definition, where not having symptoms still makes it a 'case') is to be considered, should we not also consider what benefits that £100bn/yr could bring if spent on other things instead? It is almost the entire current NHS annual budget, and doubling the NHS capacity would arguably create a great deal of benefit - perhaps much more than 'Project Moonshot'.

 

[Matata]

Do you (or any other person reading this) feel that forum members would rather receive no differing viewpoints to that which they already hold?

That's an easy "yes" otherwise politics and religion would not be forbidden topics of discussion, lol.

 

[chemgirl]

My intention is not to sound sarcastic - rather I am asking questions openly (rather than directing them to you personally in the form 'Do you feel...') that I would find it interesting to be considered and discussed by other forum members (including yourself), in order that I can increase my understanding of alternative viewpoints and learn new things.

I don't believe I have been 'nasty' (whichever dictionary definition one might use for that term). If my posts have been interpreted in that way, I would ask that the offending sections be identified so I may consider alternative phrasing in future, as it is not my intention.


If I may, though, you did state:

so my opening line was admittedly a touch sarcastic / cheeky but that was the point of the smiley at the end of it (and here) - I was acknowledging my sarcastic tone while also referring to the fact that I like discussing this issue (amongst many issues) whereas perhaps you have come across as not wishing to debate this topic (which is totally fine).

For the record, I am not looking to 'convince everyone else' - I am certain that is outside of any limited abilities or skills I might have! - but I am looking to partake in interesting discussion with other parties.

If your mind is already made up, that is perfectly acceptable


Do you (or any other person reading this) feel that I or other members of the forum should not put forward our viewpoints, on this or any other matters, even when they are (to the best of one's ability and with the best of intentions) presented politely, coherently and respectfully?

Do you (or any other person reading this) feel that forum members would rather receive no differing viewpoints to that which they already hold?


These are all honest questions, asked without malice, so I can try to understand where others are coming from.

I edited my post because I was being unnecessarily harsh in my language.

However we both know that “Thank you for being so open to discussion and consideration of alternative viewpoints” followed by a winky face, is sarcasm. Definitely not a lost in translation over text thing.

There are a few things that I don’t really consider to be up for debate. If I chime in, it’s more to call it out than to discuss. So fair, I’m not open to alternative viewpoints when it comes to topics like mask wearing, preventable death, racism etc.

 

[chemgirl]

Great news @AprilBaby

What a huge relief!

 

[MaisOuiMadame]

Pregnant DIL is negative!

Phewwww!

I am relieved for you and your family, @AprilBaby !

Great news all around for you guys!!

 

[AprilBaby]

@AprilBaby....Whew! Happy to hear that all of you are fortunate to have dodged the bullet.

Only son #3 was positive. He started with no smell/ taste and then got a runny nose. That was the extent of it so far. He has the pregnant wife and an 18 mo old. Luckily the rest of us have escaped. Like I said, the day before he woke up with symptoms I was there to babysit the 18 mo old all day and he was working from home and made my lunch. I am VERY happy no one else got sick!

 

[Ally T]

@AprilBaby I am SO pleased for you all! What a huge relief! Stay safe out there.