If Trump drops out

[kenny]

Chaos!

He insists he won't but lots of top brass Republican leaders have called for Trump to withdraw.
But with the election so close there isn't time to replace him on ballots.

There are 50 different sets of election rules and deadlines.
Can you imagine the lawsuits?
It would take time to settle on the new candidate, then the legal shitfest could start and that'll last for months.

The resolution would rise the US Supreme Court (remember Bush v Gore 2000?)
As deadlines pass would Obama just stay in office?
Would America just be without a president between the end of Obama's term and the resolution of his replacement?
Are these contingencies covered in the US Constitution?

Democracy itself would wobble, to the delight of Putin.

 

[arkieb1]

I doubt his ego and his minders will allow it to happen, but I'll be the first one to throw a party on behalf of all intelligent decent Americans if it happens.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Then Pence will beat HC by 5%.

 

[kenny]

Then Pence will beat HC by 5%.

It's not that simple.

Rule: VP takes over if President is incapacitated.
But Trump isn't president, so the rule doesn't apply.

At this stage all the other wannabe candidates will scream bloody murder if Pence were to be automatically inserted.

 

[Calliecake]

Trump is telling the Wall Street Journal that there is zero chance he will quit.

 

[kenny]

Trump is telling the Wall Street Journal that there is zero chance he will quit.

Of course that must be his public statement ... today!
But tomorrow?

This misogynistic egomaniac must fear what even he must realize looms more clearly with each passing day.
Trump is facing the ultimate humiliation (in his little pea-brain), losing the world's ultimate prize to a WOMAN!

If we've learned anything about Trump it's that it is impossible to predict what The Donald will do.
To save face he may dig up his "The election is rigged" line, "I won't stand for it so I'm withdrawing".

 

[momhappy]

I agree with you, Kenny. We can't predict anything that he might do.
I would be elated and terrified all at the same time (elated to be rid of him, but terrified of the instability/uncertainty that such an event might cause).

 

[iLander]

Pence:

Does not believe in evolution

Wants all abortion to be illegal. Period.

Is a moron.

 

[kenny]

NPR today.

http://www.npr.org/2016/10/08/497181974/republicans-call-for-donald-trump-to-drop-out-trump-says-he-wont-quit?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=202608

Reaction to the video of Donald Trump using explicit language and apparently describing himself forcing himself on women continues to roll in. And it is not good for the GOP nominee. Prominent Republicans are calling on him to drop out and elected officials are running from him and fast. See the full list of Republicans calling on Trump to step down at the bottom on this post.

The candidate isn't backing down, telling the Washington Post's Robert Costa in an interview today, "I'd never withdraw. I've never withdrawn in my life."

The Post reports, Trump called from his home in Trump Tower and said, "No, I'm not quitting this race. I have tremendous support."


Trump also tweeted, seemingly downplaying the firestorm that has consumed his campaign.

Just to give a sense of how bad things have gotten in the past 24 hours, he's lost Hugh Hewitt.


The conservative talk show host had been a strong supporter of Trump arguing Republicans must back him to get a conservative justice on the Supreme Court.

Carly Fiorina, who lost to Trump in the GOP primary, called for him to step aside and for the Republican Party to run vice president nominee Mike Pence in his place.

Add senators Mike Lee (R-UT) and Jeff Flake (R-AZ), neither of whom endorsed Trump, to the growing list of prominent and elected republicans to get out.

But, this would be significantly easier said than done according to a leading Republican election lawyer.

"People in the GOP are understandably nervous. People are looking for an escape," Ben Ginsberg told NPR. "The rules don't provide a ready-made escape. Nor do ballot rules, nor the electoral college. While people are looking for an out, this die was cast in Cleveland."

Ginsberg, who is a partner at the Jones Day law firm, spoke with the NPR Politics Podcast.

"The RNC rules allow for replacement of a candidate on death or declining the nomination, but no provision for replacing," said Ginsberg. "At this stage, Donald Trump would have to resign. There's no way to stage a coup."

If Trump were to resign, Ginsberg says, the GOP would have to go through a complicated process to nominate a new candidate.

"Under the rules, if there is a vacancy, it doesn't go to the VP candidate. It's a matter of rules. It can be anyone. Part of what the RNC would have to do is figure out the nomination rules to see who would be eligible. It's an all-bets-are-off scenario. There might be a political consensus for Mike Pence, but it is not mandated by the rules," he said.

But it is four weeks from election day. And the idea of a drawn out fight over the top ticket is almost politically unfathomable.

Elected republicans aren't waiting. They are now running away from their party's nominee. Senator Kelly Ayotte who is in a tough race for re-election and never endorsed Trump, now says she won't vote for him either.

Congresswoman Martha Roby in deep red Alabama says she can't support him either.

The reason is simple, as seasoned political analyst Stuart Rothenberg put it on Twitter, "This certainly raises the possibility of a down-ballot bloodbath for Republicans."

Trump was initially supposed to attend a rally today in Wisconsin with Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. Then after the video release, it was announced that Pence would attend in Trump's place. Now the Trump campaign confirms Pence won't be attending the rally either.

Sen. John Thune (R-SD), a member of the GOP's leadership, tweeted that Trump should drop out immediately.

For elected Republicans, it is rapidly becoming clear that merely rejecting Trump's remarks isn't enough. Every one of them can expect to be asked whether they are withdrawing their endorsements and whether they will even vote for their party's nominee.

 

[kenny]

From NPR today.

http://www.npr.org/2016/10/08/497181974/republicans-call-for-donald-trump-to-drop-out-trump-says-he-wont-quit?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=202608

Reaction to the video of Donald Trump using explicit language and apparently describing himself forcing himself on women continues to roll in. And it is not good for the GOP nominee. Prominent Republicans are calling on him to drop out and elected officials are running from him and fast. See the full list of Republicans calling on Trump to step down at the bottom on this post.

The candidate isn't backing down, telling the Washington Post's Robert Costa in an interview today, "I'd never withdraw. I've never withdrawn in my life."

The Post reports, Trump called from his home in Trump Tower and said, "No, I'm not quitting this race. I have tremendous support."

Trump also tweeted, seemingly downplaying the firestorm that has consumed his campaign.

Just to give a sense of how bad things have gotten in the past 24 hours, he's lost Hugh Hewitt.

The conservative talk show host had been a strong supporter of Trump arguing Republicans must back him to get a conservative justice on the Supreme Court.

Carly Fiorina, who lost to Trump in the GOP primary, called for him to step aside and for the Republican Party to run vice president nominee Mike Pence in his place.

Add senators Mike Lee (R-UT) and Jeff Flake (R-AZ), neither of whom endorsed Trump, to the growing list of prominent and elected republicans to get out.

But, this would be significantly easier said than done according to a leading Republican election lawyer.

"People in the GOP are understandably nervous. People are looking for an escape," Ben Ginsberg told NPR. "The rules don't provide a ready-made escape. Nor do ballot rules, nor the electoral college. While people are looking for an out, this die was cast in Cleveland."

Ginsberg, who is a partner at the Jones Day law firm, spoke with the NPR Politics Podcast.

"The RNC rules allow for replacement of a candidate on death or declining the nomination, but no provision for replacing," said Ginsberg. "At this stage, Donald Trump would have to resign. There's no way to stage a coup."

If Trump were to resign, Ginsberg says, the GOP would have to go through a complicated process to nominate a new candidate.

"Under the rules, if there is a vacancy, it doesn't go to the VP candidate. It's a matter of rules. It can be anyone. Part of what the RNC would have to do is figure out the nomination rules to see who would be eligible. It's an all-bets-are-off scenario. There might be a political consensus for Mike Pence, but it is not mandated by the rules," he said.

But it is four weeks from election day. And the idea of a drawn out fight over the top ticket is almost politically unfathomable.

Elected republicans aren't waiting. They are now running away from their party's nominee. Senator Kelly Ayotte who is in a tough race for re-election and never endorsed Trump, now says she won't vote for him either.

Congresswoman Martha Roby in deep red Alabama says she can't support him either.

The reason is simple, as seasoned political analyst Stuart Rothenberg put it on Twitter, "This certainly raises the possibility of a down-ballot bloodbath for Republicans."

Trump was initially supposed to attend a rally today in Wisconsin with Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. Then after the video release, it was announced that Pence would attend in Trump's place. Now the Trump campaign confirms Pence won't be attending the rally either.

Sen. John Thune (R-SD), a member of the GOP's leadership, tweeted that Trump should drop out immediately.

For elected Republicans, it is rapidly becoming clear that merely rejecting Trump's remarks isn't enough. Every one of them can expect to be asked whether they are withdrawing their endorsements and whether they will even vote for their party's nominee.

 

[kenny]

... from the same NPR story above ...

Republicans Calling For Trump To Step Aside

Sen. John Thune (South Dakota): Third highest ranking Republican in the Senate
Sen. Mark Kirk (Illinois): Has run campaign ads distancing himself from Trump.
Sen. Ben Sasse (Nebraska): Prominent "Never Trumper"
Sen. Mike Crapo (Idaho): Rescinds previous endorsement
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (West Virginia): She said the "appropriate next step may be for him to reexamine his candidacy."
Sen. Dan Sullivan (Alaska): Rescinds previous endorsement
Sen. Jeff Flake (Arizona): Did not endorse Trump previously
Sen. Mike Lee (Utah): Did not endorse Trump previously
Rep. Martha Roby (Alabama)
Rep. Jason Chaffetz (Utah)
Rep. Barbara Comstock (Virginia)
Rep. Mike Coffman (Colorado)
Rep. Bradley Byrne (Alabama): Previous Trump supporter
Rep. Charlie Dent (Pennsylvania): Previously said he is not voting for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton in the general election
Rep. Ann Wagner (Missouri)
Rep. Rodney Davis (Illinois)
Rep. Mia Love (Utah)
Gov. Dennis Daugaard (South Dakota)
Joe Heck, Republican Senate Candidate (Nevada): Running for Sen. Harry Reid's seat.
Carly Fiorina, former presidential candidate
George Pataki, Former New York governor
Hugh Hewitt, conservative radio talk show host, previous Trump backer

 

[kenny]

Houston, we have a problem.

 

[redwood66]

I can't see why any endorsed him in the first place. It is a sh*tshow of epic proportions. I am thoroughly disgusted.

 

[sstephensid]

I can't see why any endorsed him in the first place. It is a sh*tshow of epic proportions. I am thoroughly disgusted.

I finally agree with one of your comments 100%!

 

[lovedogs]

After reading about all of the Reps who are now calling for Trump to drop out, I was curious about the rules surrounding "replacing" a candidate. Seems like it's almost impossible to do anything at this point unless Trump himself drops out willingly.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/08/politics/republicans-replace-trump/index.html

 

[AGBF]

When I first heard the idea of his dropping out (being pressured to drop out, really), I thought of how I had already cast my ballot. Would my ballot be nullified if he dropped out? That does not seem legal. (I did not vote for him, of course, but he was one of the choices on my ballot.)

AGBF

 

[redwood66]

I can't see why any endorsed him in the first place. It is a sh*tshow of epic proportions. I am thoroughly disgusted.

I finally agree with one of your comments 100%!

Of course I meant the whole thing on both sides.

 

[ChristineRose]

Why would he drop out?

If he drops out, there is a 0% chance he will be president.

If he doesn't drop out, 538 is currently giving him an 18.6% chance.

If he wants to president, he might as well take that 18.6%

If he doesn't want to be president, he can resign right after he wins.

If his motive is to get another reality show contract (as has been suggested) he'll be better off not dropping out either way.

 

[kenny]

Why would he drop out?

If he drops out, there is a 0% chance he will be president.

If he doesn't drop out, 538 is currently giving him an 18.6% chance.

If he wants to president, he might as well take that 18.6%

If he doesn't want to be president, he can resign right after he wins.

If his motive is to get another reality show contract (as has been suggested) he'll be better off not dropping out either way.

Why would he drop out?, you ask.
To repeat ...

This misogynistic egomaniac must fear what even he must realize looms more clearly with each passing day.
Trump is facing the ultimate humiliation (in his little pea-brain), losing the world's ultimate prize to a WOMAN!!!!

If we've learned anything about Trump it's that it is impossible to predict what The Donald will do.
To save face he may dig up his "The election is rigged" line, "I won't stand for it so I'm withdrawing".

 

[monarch64]

Kenny, you are so right--the aftermath of what happens when he loses to a girl frightens me. I'm worried he will use his extensive resources to really smear her and just never back down or leave things be. Because this will be such a major blow to his ego. He is proven to be an abusive person and he has enough money to do whatever he wants to her, up to and including arranging her assassination. If that sounds overly dramatic, so be it. I've been threatened by my own abusive ex with a contract on my life, and he was not nearly as well-connected as DT. Funny, my ex also loved to use the phrase "all men are pigs." And he was.

I do not find that theory to be true at all, for the record!

 

[AGBF]

The Republicans are really too afraid to call for him to withdraw because they fear losing the House. There are protests by some Republican leaders, but Paul Ryan isn't saying he won't vote for Trump. Trump won't withdraw. There are throngs of people gathered in front of Trump Towers now cheering him on. His base thrives on this. They love him. He will attack Bill Clinton at tomorrow night's debate and energize his base.

AGBF

 

[kenny]

I think Clinton will win against Trump OR a replacement.

If Trump does drop out it will be interesting to watch because ...
On one hand the good Republicans will turn out in droves to vote for his replacement.
But the deplorables (Trump supporters) may stay home in droves.

Either is a win win for Clinton.

 

[kenny]

Kenny, you are so right--the aftermath of what happens when he loses to a girl frightens me. I'm worried he will use his extensive resources to really smear her and just never back down or leave things be. Because this will be such a major blow to his ego. He is proven to be an abusive person and he has enough money to do whatever he wants to her, up to and including arranging her assassination. If that sounds overly dramatic, so be it. I've been threatened by my own abusive ex with a contract on my life, and he was not nearly as well-connected as DT. Funny, my ex also loved to use the phrase "all men are pigs." And he was.

I do not find that theory to be true at all, for the record!

Oh Man!
Trump enacting revenge against a victorious Clinton had not entered my mind.
... but it wouldn't surprise me a bit, considering Trump's history and the magnitude of the rage he'd feel losing the competition for the ultimate brass ring to a WOMAN.

I hope this has entered Secret Service's 'mind'.

 

[AGBF]

I think Clinton will win against Trump or a replacement.

If Trump does drop out it will be interesting to watch because ...
One one hand the good Republicans will turn out in droves to vote for his replacement.
But the deplorables (Trump supporters) may stay home in droves.

I agree. At this point I do not fear Clinton losing. Unless the Republicans were to do something like replace Trump with Paul Ryan. That might energize people of all stripes to vote.

But it won't happen. Trump won't withdraw.

 

[ksinger]

I think Clinton will win against Trump or a replacement.

If Trump does drop out it will be interesting to watch because ...
One one hand the good Republicans will turn out in droves to vote for his replacement.
But the deplorables (Trump supporters) may stay home in droves.

I agree. At this point I do not fear Clinton losing. Unless the Republicans were to do something like replace Trump with Paul Ryan. That might energize people of all stripes to vote.

But it won't happen. Trump won't withdraw.

"They" can't do that Deb. A lot of people don't seem to get that this is not a federal issue, elections and ballots are a state issue, and each and every state election and who is on each state's ballot, would have to be litigated, separately. It's too horrible to contemplate.

The state laws in a situation like this are mostly sketchy, badly written, and don't hold up to challenges. So say, Trump drops out, and the Oklahoma Republican party says, "We're going to change the ballot to Pence." Aside from the inability to reprint millions of ballots, the Oklahoma Democratic party is going to say, "Oh, the hell you say, the ballot goes to the people as is." And then it likely has to go to our state supreme court for decisions on whatever state laws we have in place, or some sort of emergency ruling to make the election occur at the prescribed time. Now, mix it up in any number of ways, and multiply that by 50.

Any Republican politician calling for Trump to drop out is beyond contempt. The chaos that would ensue would fray our already hole-laden social fabric even more. The cold civil war we're having now, might just turn hot. There is no provision for a situation such as this. None. And even if we were to turn to the SC to decide things, that court is limping due to (again) being understaffed by Republican intransigence.

And really, it's like those want-our-cake-and-eat-it-too morons just woke up TODAY and said, "Down-ballot blood bath????", when that has been the cry from within their own party for how long now? They need to HTFU, take a hit for the country, and take their medicine at the polls. If they actually blow the country apart trying to get away from the Frankenstein they ALLOWED, for a bloody reelection, well, watch the war begin in earnest. And on their heads be it.

 

[AGBF]

I think Clinton will win against Trump or a replacement.

If Trump does drop out it will be interesting to watch because ...
One one hand the good Republicans will turn out in droves to vote for his replacement.
But the deplorables (Trump supporters) may stay home in droves.

I agree. At this point I do not fear Clinton losing. Unless the Republicans were to do something like replace Trump with Paul Ryan. That might energize people of all stripes to vote.

But it won't happen. Trump won't withdraw.

"They" can't do that Deb. A lot of people don't seem to get that this is not a federal issue, elections and ballots are a state issue, and each and every state election and who is on each state's ballot, would have to be litigated, separately. It's too horrible to contemplate.

The state laws in a situation like this are mostly sketchy, badly written, and don't hold up to challenges. So say, Trump drops out, and the Oklahoma Republican party says, "We're going to change the ballot to Pence." Aside from the inability to reprint millions of ballots, the Oklahoma Democratic party is going to say, "Oh, the hell you say, the ballot goes to the people as is." And then it likely has to go to our state supreme court for decisions on whatever state laws we have in place, or some sort of emergency ruling to make the election occur at the prescribed time. Now, mix it up in any number of ways, and multiply that by 50.

Any Republican politician calling for Trump to drop out is beyond contempt. The chaos that would ensue would fray our already hole-laden social fabric even more. The cold civil war we're having now, might just turn hot. There is no provision for a situation such as this. None. And even if we were to turn to the SC to decide things, that court is limping due to (again) being understaffed by Republican intransigence.

And really, it's like those want-our-cake-and-eat-it-too morons just woke up TODAY and said, "Down-ballot blood bath????", when that has been the cry from within their own party for how long now? They need to HTFU, take a hit for the country, and take their medicine at the polls. If they actually blow the country apart trying to get away from the Frankenstein they ALLOWED, for a bloody reelection, well, watch the war begin in earnest. And on their heads be it.

ksinger-

I really understand that in practicality the switch cannot be done. I posted in this thread or in another that I already voted. In other words, I know that the mess would be endless. But technically, I think that if Donald Trump withdrew that The Republican Party would be allowed to nominate someone else. And it would not have to be Mike Pence. And the nation would, indeed, face the mess that you describe above. What else could happen if Donald Trump suddenly withdrew (which we know he will not)?

Deb

 

[Madam Bijoux]

It might be too late for him to drop out now: Ballots have been printed and some people have already voted.

 

[VRBeauty]

On my state's ballot, there will be a certified list of Presidential Candidates that includes Donald Trump - interestingly, as the Republican and American Independent candidate. But the point is that in my state we vote for the candidate, not the political party's nominee - and the county will start accepting mail-in ballots on Monday - as in three days from today. So to this lay person it looks like the Republican Party replacing Trump with some other candidate on the ballot at this point is not an option, at least not in one of the most populous states in the Union. However, the party could identify its chosen replacement nominee and urge the party faithful to write in that candidate's name. Which, if the majority of GOP voters chose this option, would probably result in chaos when it comes time to count the votes and certify the election results.

 

[VRBeauty]

Personally I hope Trump resists and remains on the ballot - both because it will result in a cleaner, less chaotic process, and because I'd like to see The Donald's celebrity and venom-fueled run for office thoroughly repudiated at the polls. That might help stanch the U.S.'s loss of credibility in the eyes of the rest of the world.

 

[ChristineRose]

It seems pretty obvious that Trump is going to claim that the election was rigged and that he actually beat the female. This seems to me to fit his personality far better than dropping out--dropping out is pretty close to admitting that he's going to lose anyhow.