Hurricane Season: Southeast US , we got a storm brewing

[Arcadian]

I waited to post this one because nothing official was posted yet..but there is now!

2. Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is developing about 100 miles north of
Puerto Rico and is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move northward or
northwestward further into the southwestern Atlantic today and
environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional
development. A subtropical or tropical depression is likely to form
early this week while the system turns westward or
west-southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of
development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding,
gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion
along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east
coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during
the early to middle part of this week. Interests in those areas
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin

 

[Arcadian]

There's models running currently so won't be much of an update, however, based on what I'm seeing it will recurve into South Florida on Thursday/Friday. The unclear part is how strong. Some models say a Cat1, some say a strong TS, either way there will be plenty of rain with this system, and there's still parts of FL suffering from Ian.

If there's a curve in the state, more of the state will get rain and in fact both coasts will get rain, with the east coast getting the worst of the beach erosion. If it doesn't curve through the state and stays on the east coast, then still beach erosion, however, space coast will get hit pretty badly with some beach erosion.

I think tomorrow will be a bit clearer but currently its at 80% for formation of something. However there looks to be agreement that the storm comes onshore about where I am (thank you, I needed that ) and recurve in central FL then go up the middle of the state.

Georgia, NC,SC, mid atlantic and the NE US will see something from this as its going to converge a system moving through the middle of the country.

 

[Arcadian]

We got SubTS Nicole


The discussion is quite interesting and gives some perspective of why its only subtropical for now

WTNT42 KNHC 070900
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
500 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been monitoring over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean has been gradually becoming better
organized. Scatterometer data and buoy observations from last
evening indicated that the system has developed a sufficiently
well-defined center of circulation, with gale-force winds as high as
40 kt occurring in a band that lies between 180-240 n mi to the east
of the center. Moderate to deep convection has also increased a
bit, with TAFB providing a subtropical Hebert-Poteat classification
of ST1.5. Given these data, the system is now being classified as a
subtropical storm.

Since Nicole's center has only recently formed, the initial motion
is a little uncertain, but the best estimate is north-northwestward,
or 330/12 kt. Model guidance indicates that the system should turn
northwestward and slow down later today, followed by a turn toward
the west and west-southwest tonight through Tuesday night due to a
mid-level ridge axis poking eastward off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic
coast. In about 3 days, the high over the southeastern United
States will slide eastward over the Atlantic as a large mid-latitude
trough traverses the country, and Nicole is expected to make a sharp
recurvature toward the north and northeast on days 4 and 5 in the
vicinity of Florida. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement
on this scenario, and the official NHC track forecast is fairly
close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Some gradual strengthening is anticipated over the next few days,
although Nicole's sprawling nature does not favor fast
intensification, at least not initially. For the first couple of
days of the forecast, the NHC intensity prediction closely follows
the GFS global model solution. Although Nicole is likely to
maintain a large wind field, models suggest that it could make a
transition to a tropical cyclone and develop a smaller inner-core
wind field in about 2 to 3 days, and at that point more significant
intensification is possible. For now, the NHC intensity forecast
brings Nicole close to hurricane strength in 60-72 hours while it
moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the east coast of
Florida, which is in line with the HCCA consensus aid. It's not out
of the question for Nicole to reach hurricane strength, especially
given how warm the waters are in the vicinity of the Bahamas. It
should be stressed, however, that no matter Nicole's ultimate
intensity, the storm's large size will likely cause significant
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the
northwestern Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern coast of the
United States during much of the upcoming week.

Key Messages:

1. Nicole is forecast to be a large storm, and regardless of its
exact path, widespread impacts from a prolonged period of coastal
flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf
and rip currents, and beach erosion are likely along much of the
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and
portions of the northwestern and central Bahamas during much of the
upcoming week.

2. Nicole could be at or near hurricane strength when it moves
near the northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of Florida
Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the potential for a dangerous
storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall to a portion of
those areas. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas, and additional watches could be required for
portions of the Bahamas and the coast of Florida later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 25.5N 68.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 26.3N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 27.5N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 28.2N 72.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 27.6N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 09/1800Z 26.8N 77.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 29.2N 83.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 32.8N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

 

[Arcadian]

The GFS


The Euro

 

[Arcadian]

Palm beach county and other areas on the east coast of FL are getting notified of hurricane watch.

Isht just got real.

833
WTNT42 KNHC 071458
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1100 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

The structure of Nicole this morning remains distinctly subtropical,
as the low-level circulation remains tangled up with an elongated
upper-level low. The wind-field also remains quite broad, with data
from the NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunters this morning showing the highest
winds remaining displaced well away from the center. The initial
intensity is being held at 40 kt for this advisory which is
supported by the subtropical classification of ST2.5/35-40 kt from
TAFB, the earlier scatterometer data, and recent SFMR winds from the
NOAA-P3 aircraft in the 40-kt range.

Nicole might be starting to take a northwestward turn this morning,
with the estimated motion at 320/8 kt. A continued northwestward
motion is expected through the day, though there might be some
wobbles more north or west here and there as the low-level
circulation continues to interact with the decaying upper-level low.
After 24 hours, an anomalously strong mid-level ridge is expected to
amplify over the southeastern U.S. which is expected to steer Nicole
and result in the system turning westward or even west-southwestward
on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This ridging will then re-position
itself to the northeast of Nicole by Thursday and Friday which is
expected to allow the cyclone to begin gaining latitude after it
moves across the Florida Peninsula, though how quickly this occurs
is a source of track uncertainty in this time frame. Finally a broad
mid-latitude trough is forecast to eject out of the Rockies into the
Great Lakes region, further eroding the ridge and allowing Nicole to
recurve by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is
fairly tightly clustered for the first 60 hours of the forecast,
though it has taken a noticeable shift southward this cycle, and the
NHC track forecast was shifted a bit southward due to this
adjustment, but still is a bit north of the HFIP Corrected Consensus
Approach (HCCA).

Intensity wise, Nicole may take some time to consolidate given its
large radius of maximum winds and currently meager central
convection due to nearby dry air related to the nearby upper-level
low. This feature should gradually decay and warm 27-28 C
sea-surface temperatures should enable more organized convection to
develop while the system remains in a low vertical wind shear
environment. Nicole is forecast to transition to a tropical storm
sometime in the 24-36 hour period as this convection helps to
contract the radius of maximum wind, with further intensification
expected thereafter. The intensity guidance was a bit higher this
cycle, and the latest forecast now takes Nicole to a 65-kt hurricane
in 60 hours, which is close to the latest HCCA, HMON, and SHIPS
guidance. After Nicole moves inland, weakening is anticipated, and
the region that Nicole is forecast to emerge off in the northern
Gulf of Mexico has cooler SSTs that likely would not support robust
reintensification. Regardless on the ultimate intensity of Nicole,
the storm's large size due to an enhanced pressure gradient north of
the storm will likely cause significant wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts over a large portion of the northwestern Bahamas,
Florida, and the southeastern coast of the United States during much
of the upcoming week.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the
northwestern Bahamas and southeast to east-central Florida
beginning Wednesday, where a Hurricane Watch has been issued.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
areas in Florida and Georgia beginning Wednesday.

2. A dangerous storm surge is possible across portions of the
northwestern Bahamas, much of the east coast of Florida and portions
of coastal Georgia. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for most of
the east coast of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia.

3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected
to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, and outside of the cone, and affect much of the Florida
peninsula and portions of the southeast U.S.

4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall by Wednesday night and
Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will
be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with
river rises on portions of the St. Johns River.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 26.2N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
12H 08/0000Z 27.0N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
24H 08/1200Z 27.7N 71.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
36H 09/0000Z 27.6N 74.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
48H 09/1200Z 26.9N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 26.6N 78.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 27.3N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 29.4N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 33.3N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

 

[tyty333]

Following...

We went for a walk on the beach yesterday and the waves were quite large.

 

[MissGotRocks]

Wow - just what that state doesn’t need! Hope it settles down a bit before it arrives. Best wishes to all in its path!

 

[autumngems]

Wonderful.... I thought we were done

 

[Arcadian]

Wonderful.... I thought we were done

November 30 is the official end. There can be storms even after that however.

 

[Arcadian]

16z models are running still but there looks like very good agreement. no real change in the track

BTW it was absolutely steamy today. Same type of heat that we had with Ian, this deep nasty heat.


000
WTNT42 KNHC 072057
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Mon Nov 07 2022

Nicole's structure has changed little today. There is some limited
convective activity near the center with a large band of showers and
thunderstorms extending well north and east over the southwestern
Atlantic. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has
been investigating the system this afternoon and has found
flight-level and SFMR winds supporting tropical storm strength about
80 n mi northwest of the center, but earlier scatterometer data
indicated that the strongest winds are likely occurring in the band
well removed from the center. The aircraft reported that the
pressure is down to around 1000 mb. The initial intensity is
maintained at 40 kt and is based on a blend of the aircraft and
earlier satellite wind data.

Here's the recon Data

Nicole is moving northwestward or 310/8 kt. A northwestward
motion is expected to continue overnight as the storm moves around
the northeastern portion of a decaying upper-level low. On Tuesday,
Nicole is forecast to turn westward or west-southwestward as a
strong mid-level ridge amplifies over the eastern United States.
This motion should bring the center of Nicole near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday. After that time, the ridge is
forecast to shift eastward, which should allow Nicole to turn
west-northwestward or northwestward as it approaches and then moves
over the Florida Peninsula. Later in the period, a large
mid-latitude trough moving into the central United States is
expected to cause Nicole to recurve northeastward. The track
guidance is in good agreement during the first few days of the
forecast period, and the confidence in this portion of the track
forecast is relatively high. The new NHC track foreast is similar
to the previous advisory through 72 hours, but shows a track
slightly farther inland along the southeast U.S. coast on day 4.
There is increasing along-track spread after 72 hours, with the
GFS and UKMET slower than the latest ECMWF. The NHC forecast is
near the multi-model consensus aids at those times.

Nicole's sprawling structure and nearby dry mid-level air suggest
that it will take some time for the cyclone to begin strengthening.
Warm ocean temperatures that Nicole will be traversing should
allow for a gradual increase in convection near the center, and
this combined with low vertical wind shear, is expected to result in
gradual moistening of the environment around Nicole. Most of the
dynamical models indicate that Nicole will be able to develop a
smaller inner core and transition into a tropical cyclone in 24
to 36 hours, and once that occurs, a faster rate of intensification
is anticipated. The latest NHC intensity prediction is similar to
the previous advisory and calls for the system to be at or near
hurricane strength when it passes near or over the northwest
Bahamas and reaches the east coast of Florida. The official wind
speed forecast is closest to the HFIP corrected consensus, and
near the most recent dynamical hurricane models. Regardless of
Nicole's exact intensity, the storm's large size due to an enhanced
pressure gradient north of the storm will likely cause significant
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the
northwestern Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern coast of the
United States during the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas beginning Tuesday night, where
a Hurricane Warning has been issued.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday,
where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch areas in Florida and
Georgia beginning by early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is possible across much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia. The storm surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
U.S.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall by Wednesday night and
Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will
be possible along with river rises on portions of the St. Johns
River.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 26.6N 70.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
12H 08/0600Z 27.3N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
24H 08/1800Z 27.6N 73.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
36H 09/0600Z 27.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 09/1800Z 26.7N 77.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 27.0N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 28.0N 82.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1800Z 31.2N 82.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/1800Z 37.5N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

[Arcadian]

Last night they called a tropical storm warning, and its been quite windy (but very humid) here. Also, the waves at the beach are really scary high. I'll be going back to get a bit of video but its nuts out there.

No track changes wind field is enormous. Even though it might not hit as a hurricane (thats always possible) Its not a tiny little storm and there's going to be flooding events with this in places that are still flooded or have severe beach erosion already.



594
WTNT42 KNHC 080854
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Nicole appears to be beginning its transition to a tropical storm,
with the low-level center now embedded beneath a relatively small
but persistent burst of deep convection. The system still has a
broad cloud and wind field, however, with bands of convection
extending over 500 n mi to the east of the center, and gale-force
winds expanding significantly over the northwestern quadrant. The
initial intensity remains 40 kt based on ship and scatterometer
observations during the past several hours, and an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft which measured a peak 925-mb flight-level
wind of 52 kt. Nicole's center is just north of NOAA buoy 41047,
and that platform indicates that the minimum pressure has fallen to
995 mb.

The NOAA buoy and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Nicole's center
has taken a northward jog since the previous advisory, and the
initial motion remains northwestward, or 310/7 kt. However, a ridge
axis to the north should cause Nicole to turn westward and then
west-southwestward today and tonight, followed by a recurvature
around the western side of an eastward-moving area of high pressure
Wednesday through Friday. Because of the recent short-term motion
which deviated from the previous forecast track, the track guidance
has shifted northward a bit during the next 2-3 days. As a result,
the NHC official track forecast has been nudged northward and is
closest to the GFS, ECWMF, and HCCA solutions, and just a bit south
of the TVCA multi-model consensus.

With Nicole's structure beginning to take on more tropical
characteristics, strengthening is likely to commence later today.
Warm 27-28 degree Celsius waters and a more diffluence upper-level
environment are expected to aid this intensification, and the NHC
intensity forecast continues to show Nicole near or at hurricane
strength as it's moving near the northwestern Bahamas and
approaching the east coast of Florida. This forecast is just above
the highest intensity guidance, with the HWRF, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA
aids showing an intensity of 60-65 kt at 48 hours. Weakening is
expected after Nicole moves inland over Florida and accelerates
northeastward over the southeastern United States, although the
system could still produce tropical-storm-force winds over the
adjacent offshore waters. Nicole should be extratropical by day 4
over the Mid-Atlantic U.S., and most of the global models show the
circulation dissipating by day 5, with a separate extratropical low
forming over northern New England or Quebec.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in
Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a storm surge
warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by
large and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should
listen to advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
U.S.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across
the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible
across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river
rises on portions of the St. Johns River. Flash, urban and small
stream flooding will be possible in southeast Georgia and portions
of South Carolina Thursday into Thursday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 27.6N 71.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
12H 08/1800Z 27.6N 73.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 09/0600Z 27.0N 75.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 26.9N 77.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 27.6N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 29.0N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/0600Z 30.9N 83.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0600Z 38.8N 76.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

[tyty333]

Well, this really stinks! My colonoscopy is scheduled for Thursday! I've already started the special diet. I guess I'll make a
phone call later today to see what the plan is. I'm not staying up all night drinking water for a colonoscopy that *might*
happen!

DH has decided that he is putting storm shutters up on front window and front door (they face east). Mostly to keep water
from blowing in around the door/windows...not for debris.

 

[missy]

It’s being predicted here by local meteorologists (jersey shore) that winds will be upwards of 50 mph with 4” of rain expected Friday to Saturday. Coastal flooding and power outages across the county are expected.

Stay safe everyone

 

[Arcadian]

10am update has the storm deepening. Cat1 is still possible and in fact may be probable. @tyty333 considering conditions where you will be, they'd be stupid not to cancel. I'm closer to Jupiter than West Palm so I'm not gonna be happy but I think we're gonna be OK. The erosion on the beach however, thats rough. Just glad there isn't any turtle eggs left!

@missy do you guys have leaves on trees up there still? May make the difference but this storm combines with another system and zooms out from what I'm seeing. The setup when I'm looking at it up where you are looks very noreaster like.

The next 24 hours is going to be pretty crucial down here because they're seeing strengthening that means storm gets pulled a bit further north. High Tide (King Tides!) are happening tonight and thats never good when you have this type of storm coming at you. Storm this large, the center only matters because you get hit with it twice.

If ever I was glad to be by the freeway wall, its now. they shield my little neighborhood from some of the winds coming from due east.

Windy is excellent tracker even non premium. I have premium but non gives lots of data + pretty colors

Windy as forecasted

Wind map and weather forecast

www.windy.com

Recon is in progress so will see what comes back

Aircraft Reconnaissance | Tropical Tidbits

Live updating recon data for the Atlantic basin

www.tropicaltidbits.com

000
WTNT42 KNHC 081455
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Deep convection has developed and persisted near the center of
Nicole this morning and while there are still some characteristics
of a subtropical cyclone, the smaller radius of maximum winds and
improving inner-core convection suggest it has made the transition
to a tropical cyclone. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft has reported
that the pressure has fallen to around 992 mb, and has found
700-mb flight-level winds of 54 kt and believable SFMR winds of
40-42 kt. Based on those data, the initial intensity was raised to
45 kt at 1200 UTC, and is kept there for this advisory.

The anticipated westward turn appears to have occurred, and the
initial motion estimate is 280/8 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge
over the southeastern United States is expected to steer the storm
westward to west-southwestward during the next 24 to 36 hours.
This motion will bring the center of Nicole near the northwest
Bahamas on Wednesday. After that time, the ridge is forecast to
shift eastward allowing Nicole to turn west-northwestward to
northwestward, as it approaches the east coast of Florida.
By 72 hours, Nicole is forecast to recurve over the southeastern
United States ahead of a mid-latitude trough. Although there is
good agreement on this overall scenario, there is some increased
spread in the track guidance on exactly when Nicole makes the
west-northwestward turn near the east coast of Florida. The
typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models are along the southern side
of the guidance envelope, while the regional hurricane models (HWRF
and HMON) are on the northern side. Since the storm is likely near
the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the
model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In
fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields.
The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is
along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest
to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is
prudent not to make any significant changes.

Nicole will be traversing relatively warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees
Celsius and upper-level conditions that are expected to allow for
steady strengthening during the approach to the northwestern
Bahamas and the east coast of Florida. The NHC forecast calls for
Nicole to become a hurricane when it is near the northwest Bahamas
and remain a hurricane when it reaches Florida. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the various intensity consensus
aids. Weakening is expected after Nicole moves inland over Florida
and while it accelerates northeastward over the southeastern United
States. Although the system could still produce
tropical-storm-force winds over the adjacent offshore waters.
Nicole should be extratropical by late Friday, and most of the
global models show the circulation dissipating between days 4 and 5.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
areas in Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across
the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be likely with
possible river rises on the St. Johns River. Flash, urban and small
stream flooding will be possible in Southeast Georgia and portions
of South Carolina Thursday into Thursday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 27.8N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 27.3N 74.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 26.8N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 27.0N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.1N 80.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0000Z 30.0N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/1200Z 32.7N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 41.7N 73.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

[Arcadian]

FYI, I got the hurricane warrning alert on my phone and I'm sure most people got them as well along Florida/GA SE coasts .The only ones not getting anything is panhandle, extreme SWFL, and the Keys. Hallandale Beach to just south of Boca is under hurricane watch still.

825
WTNT22 KNHC 081454
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
1500 UTC TUE NOV 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BOCA RATON TO THE
FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE
SAVANNAH RIVER.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND FROM ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* BOCA RATON TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...AND ELEUTHERA IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS
* HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA TO BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF NORTH PALM BEACH TO HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SAVANNAH RIVER GEORGIA
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF FLORIDA
* NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 72.7W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE 0SW 330NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 330SE 240SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 72.7W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 72.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.3N 74.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...300NE 120SE 60SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.8N 76.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...360NE 90SE 80SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.0N 78.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...360NE 90SE 80SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.1N 80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...320NE 90SE 90SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.0N 83.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.7N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 41.7N 73.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 72.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

 

[tyty333]

Colonoscopy has been rescheduled...phew! Schools are out Thursday.

For some reason I thought you were in Miami @Arcadian . You're closer than I realized.

 

[missy]

@Arcadian We have a mixed bag here. Some trees no leaves but many still with leaves. I agree with you. Very Nor’easter like.

 

[missy]

Colonoscopy has been rescheduled...phew! Schools are out Thursday.

For some reason I thought you were in Miami @Arcadian . You're closer than I realized.

Glad you rescheduled it! And you both need to do a GTG!

 

[Arcadian]

Colonoscopy has been rescheduled...phew! Schools are out Thursday.

For some reason I thought you were in Miami @Arcadian . You're closer than I realized.

Yep, I'm so close I'm kissing Jupiter on the mouth...lol I'm just about 9 miles north of the airport.

 

[Arcadian]

There's some definite beach erosion happening
they had dredged the beach couple of years ago but this is pretty bad. It wasn't high tide but the water is really high.

I had heard that beaches in Ft Pierce were closing at 5 today?

 

[Arcadian]

Palm Beach County has issued Mandatory Evacuations for Zones A and B, effect tomorrow at 7 a.m. This includes mobile homes, barrier islands and low-lying areas. To find out if you are in an evacuation zone, check out the Know Your Zone app at pbcgov.com/hurricane


Not all counties are mandatory at this time but that can change.

Evacuation Orders

 

[Arcadian]

Lots of wind last night. Not hard to see why


No track changes and at 4am, no strengthening. We can hope it stays a strong TS.

 

[tyty333]

Glad you rescheduled it! And you both need to do a GTG!

Yes, maybe someday we can get it together! You can always fly down and join us @missy

So the most recent map I saw on TV shows it coming in through Port St. Lucie. We're getting some strong bands
of wind up here. DH lost 3 golf balls yesterday thanks to the wind. He knew it wasn't a good day for golf but wanted
to get out and get some exercise so went anyway.

He is currently putting up the front door/sidelight covers to prevent the rain from coming in. I think he'll probably stop
there. There are a few other homes that have put up plywood but looks like most people arent worrying about it. Ditto
hoping it stays at a strong TS.

 

[Arcadian]

In Jupiter this morning the ocean covered the beach, came up to the access points in many places. That is a lot scary considering!

Good video from Dr. Cowan

 

[Arcadian]

000
WTNT62 KNHC 091653
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1155 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE MAKES LANDFALL ON GREAT ABACO ISLAND...

Weather radar data from the Bahamas and surface observations
indicate that the center of Nicole has made landfall on Great Abaco
Island in the northwestern Bahamas with an estimated intensity of
70 mph (110 km/h). A private weather station on Elbow Cay, just
east of Great Abaco Island, reported a minimum pressure of 986.8 mb
(29.14 inches) as the center passed near it. Data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the estimated
minimum pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1155 AM EST...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.1W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF MARSH HARBOR GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

[Arcadian]

Some live cams

St Augustine Beach Live Cam

Jupiter Reef Club Live Cam

Cocoa Beach Live Cam

Deerfield Beach Live cam

Jensen Beach Live cam

 

[Arcadian]

Volusia county sheriffs department is evacuating condominiums on the beach due to eminent collapse, in Daytona Beach Shores

Daytona Beach Shores police evacuating structures deemed unsafe due to Nicole erosion

 

[Arcadian]

Flagler Beach cam

 

[Arcadian]

Anyway I won't be posting any think unless its live considering...lol my head is banging like a drum *but of course!* and parently theres a pressure drop? lots of places around me closed at 4pm.

Also the walk this evening with the dogs was interesting. they weren't very happy getting soaked like that (I wasn't either!) We have this giant squalls then these very eerie silences but landfall isn't until later this evening so don't be surprised if I continue to post until I can't!

 

[Arcadian]

We keep losing power. Sounds like a train out there when the winds really get going. But my dogs are sleeping, I'm thankful for that.