How will the UK EU decision impact voting in the US?

[arkieb1]

Has the shock vote for the UK to leave the EU had any impact on voting in the US? I guess what I am getting at here, is that I have seen many people so disillusioned with the two main political parties and/or the two main candidates that a number of you have stated that you will vote for a smaller party instead. For what it is worth, if I was in the US I would have favoured a candidate that was not Hillary or Trump either, but, I would not waste my vote on one of the smaller parties because I would be voting against what I see as the greater evil so to speak.

If a substantial number of disillusioned people in the US do vote for other parties, this means that Trump has a very real shot at becoming president, and I think there will be global shock just like the recent outcome of the referendum in the UK. On the flip side of that the more uncertain there is in the economy (as has been created in the UK and Europe) the more likely people are to vote conservatively. I have included a poll so you can remain anonymous, but feel free to add comments, and please no attacking the views of each other.

 

[Jambalaya]

This is a very interesting question, Arkie. Thanks for such a great thread and poll. I'm voting the same - Hillary - but what's happened in the UK does make the specter of a Trump presidency seem to loom a little larger. It seems to indicate that many people may be thinking, secretly, of things like "wanting to take their country back" (back from whom?) which tends to be more of a right-wing sentiment. Trump thinks Brexit is great. I guess my fear is that the wave of Trump/Brexit-like politics will spread. Trexit politics.

It's also quite scary how, apparently, Brexit was apparently not a possibility in Britain until a month or two ago, and suddenly the Leave side just gained all this momentum, and won. It makes me think that the same thing could happen here with people voting for Trump. But perhaps it's a little different since Trump is an individual with well-documented horribly right-wing attitudes.

Having said that...it does seem that there is a wave of far-right sentiment sweeping across Europe and America, considering all the people who voted for Trump already and all the anti-EU tensions in Europe. I hope this isn't going to be the modern equivalent of the early Thirties in Europe, when fascism was on the rise. It all goes back to extremism. It's divided the West and made people more fearful and more right-wing and keener to "take my country back." Terrorism has been very successful in tearing the West apart, but not in the obvious ways that attacks cause. The EU is in danger of breaking up - Britain leaving is a terrible blow to the EU - and it now seems likely that a domino effect may happen. I expect the terrorists just love to see Europe in a spin and America so divided.

So yes, I'm concerned that Brexit makes Trump seem more possible, in terms of spreading right-wing politics.

 

[arkieb1]

Jambalaya yes read my last comments over in Deb's post on "Why I was wrong about Welfare reform" I think terrorism, floundering economies, economic uncertainty and a heap of other things are underpinning this "us versus them" attitude, and what I describe in part as a racially driven egocentricity that is occurring in many Western countries. And I don't think it's just as simple as a case of the far right and their POVs gaining popularity although I concede that in time of economic uncertainty certainly people return to/crave much more conservative politics, but that only in part explains the mass dissatisfaction of the upper working class and your middle classes. I see both voters that have extreme right wing views supporting Trump, but I think there are voters out there from middle American that can't see any better alternatives too. The fact Trump has been giving as much power and is as popular as he currently is, is in itself quite astounding, as in Britain it's a backlash against a number of things going on culturally as well as economically.

I have nothing against conservative politics but the fact that someone that is a borderline sociopath can be possibly elected leader of the free world, is just incredibly odd to watch. It's like when you see something horrible IRL like a car crash or something in front of you where you don't want to look but can't turn away all at the same time.

I sit back and wonder if the decision in the UK will actually help or hinder Trump's success, I can see a number of areas where it might have the ramifications/ability to do both.

 

[ksinger]

I don't think it will do much - the US is pretty firmly split into warring camps. For all that Americans complain often and loudly about party politics, and many seem quite proud that they are "independent" and supposedly vote on each candidate's merits, the reality is that most independents are either right or left without a label, and vote that way pretty reliably across the board - for president, congress, and at the local level.

I think the vast majority of both the right and the left, have already decided and won't budge, although I hope that watching the social acrimony in the UK, and the tanking of markets will give Trump voters pause. I'm not holding my breath on that one though.

 

[Jambalaya]

I think you're right not to hold your breath on that one, ksinger. I think it's more likely that Brexit will fuel the fires of nationalism that seems to be sweeping Europe and the US. The media whips everyone into a frenzy - I've already seen a headline about "Texit" - and some people who may be undecided just respond to the strength of messages like "taking our country back" and "making America great again" without being able to hear the undertones of xenophobia. Brexit has played right into that horrible Trump's hands. He is just loving it.

Seems the Western world is becoming divided between those who want their countries to close themselves off to globalization and immigration, and those who want to continue to move forward, be part of a global community, and share resources with others who are less fortunate. I'm in the latter camp. I think a lot of people just want to go back to the Fifties - the "good old days" - and nostalgia is part of the rhetoric about making America great again. But you can't turn back time. Like it or not, we live in a global world. It's interesting how there are strong movements in Europe and America who want to reverse that.

 

[maccers]

Very little impact. Based on how many Britons didn't know/understand what Brexit was, even fewer Americans will know about it. This isn't meant to be a slight against Americans, just pointing out that many Britons didn't understand what was happening in their own country.

 

[AGBF]

Very little impact. Based on how many Britons didn't know/understand what Brexit was, even fewer Americans will know about it.

I completely agree. The vote will not affect the American people at all. Whether it will affect Hillary Clinton and her campaign remains to be seen. I am hoping that if she needs to learn any lessons from what happened in the UK voting, that she will learn them quickly and implement them efficaciously. Outsmarting Trump is vital. I hope she is putting her campaign money to good use: using it to know what people are really going to vote about.

AGBF

 

[Jambalaya]

Very little impact. Based on how many Britons didn't know/understand what Brexit was, even fewer Americans will know about it.

I completely agree. The vote will not affect the American people at all. Whether it will affect Hillary Clinton and her campaign remains to be seen. I am hoping that if she needs to learn any lessons from what happened in the UK voting, that she will learn them quickly and implement them efficaciously. Outsmarting Trump is vital. I hope she is putting her campaign money to good use: using it to know what people are really going to vote about.

AGBF

But how do we know that many Britons didn't know what Brexit was? I thought the turnout was 73%. Or do you mean they didn't understand what en exit would mean for the country? Why - are there some signs of regret? I haven't looked at any analysis today.

 

[Matata]

They didn't understand the full scope of what leaving would mean.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/regrexit-eu-referendum_us_576e8217e4b0dbb1bbbabc7a?section=

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/petition-eu-referendum-million-signatures_us_576e58ebe4b0dbb1bbbab919?section=

 

[Jambalaya]

OK, so there are some regrets. Thanks for the links, Matata.

I have a question: Apparently the UK economy is over 75% services-based, not goods and manufacturing. That's only 14%. So, won't the UK economy just go on as before? If it doesn't export many tangible goods, I guess it wasn't that dependent on EU trade regulations anyway?

 

[arkieb1]

I am not sure if they fully educated British citizens about the full financial and economic ramifications of it. If Trump gets elected I see the same thing, shambolic economics mixed with global financial panic..... The average moronic citizen that wants to protect their country from this heightened fear of everything by a severe knee jerk to the extreme right side of politics isn't able to see past their own backyard in every sense including such an outcome. And in the case of Britain where they suddenly are starting to get it, it's a case of too little too late unless they decided to hold another vote because so many people are calling for it.

 

[MollyMalone]

I have a question: Apparently the UK economy is over 75% services-based, not goods and manufacturing. That's only 14%. So, won't the UK economy just go on as before? If it doesn't export many tangible goods, I guess it wasn't that dependent on EU trade regulations anyway?

In the past 18 months, EU countries were the sources of 47% - 55% of imports into the UK & 38% - 48% of the UK's exports were to EU countries.
https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx
Whether a non-EU UK will be able to negotiate the same kind of trade advantages with the EU countries that it has been enjoying is far from certain.

Here's a Financial Times piece from yesterday that I think is a good overview of why Brexit matters in one services sector -- non-UK investment banks have more than 60,000 employees in London alone:
https://next.ft.com/content/a3a92744-3a52-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7

 

[Jambalaya]

Thanks, Molly. I wondered about exports, but then I remembered reading how large the UK economy is, and thought it must have bargaining power on its own - apparently the UK is a big loss to the EU. But what will happen with trade advantages and exports is unknown, of course, and that's the problem with a Leave result, I guess. And even if the UK did go back in, I don't know if they'd be able to negotiate the kind of great rebate that Thatcher did in the Eighties. I read another thing that surprised me - the UK currently doesn't have any trade deals with the US. Maybe they will be able to do that now.

 

[Jambalaya]

I am not sure if they fully educated British citizens about the full financial and economic ramifications of it. If Trump gets elected I see the same thing, shambolic economics mixed with global financial panic..... The average moronic citizen that wants to protect their country from this heightened fear of everything by a severe knee jerk to the extreme right side of politics isn't able to see past their own backyard in every sense including such an outcome. And in the case of Britain where they suddenly are starting to get it, it's a case of too little too late unless they decided to hold another vote because so many people are calling for it.

That's a good way of putting it, and I think that fear is behind a lot of the nationalist sentiment sweeping the US and Europe.

About having a re-vote, David Cameron seemed to think it wasn't possible. He said "it's a referendum, not a neverendum"!!

 

[Rhea]

As a whole, I think it'll impact the US voting very little. If anything, when the global economy slumps and falls into recession, it'll make Trump look better because immigrants stealing jobs will be more concerning. I'm full of fun filled doom and gloom lately!

I genuinely do not believe the general public, in nearly any country, but especially in isolationist USA, to be informed enough about global politics. I'm American by birth and lived there until I was 24 at which point I moved to England. My own mother and sister had no idea this EU referendum was happening or quite how serious it was. They are of average or above intelligence, but their minds and thoughts are filled with what's happening in their immediate lives. That's true for most of us.

I've taken the leave vote very hard (that's an under-statement) and I believe I may have influenced my mother to not even consider a protest vote, to take her vote seriously as though it absolutely matters and the country could do an about face 9th November. I'm not sure she was considering Trump, but she's not a Clinton fan at all. I think she's more likely to vote Clinton after seeing my complete shock and dismay and explaining the global impact beyond the fact that now she could visit me cheaply.

 

[Rena7]

It doesn't change my position at all. Unfortunately I still don't know what I am going to do. I absolutely will not be voting for Hillary. I have no respect for her at all.

Voting for Trump is not really a good alternative. I wish there was another option.