EC predictions...

[swimmer]

And no, I don't mean Emerald Cut.

It takes 270 electoral votes to win, what do you think the final count will be?

Four years ago with Bush/Kerry the day before the elections the polls predicted:
Strong Kerry (95)
Weak Kerry (105)
Barely Kerry (52)
Exactly tied (0)
Barely Bush (10)
Weak Bush (66)
Strong Bush (183)

And the results were:
Republican Bush (Incumbent) 62,040,606 51% ecv 286

Democratic Kerry 59,028,109 48% ecv 252

Independent Nader 411,304 1% ecv 0

Today's (4 years later) polls predict:
Strong Obama (23
Weak Obama (73)
Barely Obama (42)
Exactly tied (0)
Barely McCain (53)
Weak McCain (14)
Strong McCain (11

What do you predict?

 

[JulieN]

hey, swimmer, I have a hard time understanding these numbers:

Republican Bush (Incumbent) 62,040,606 51% ecv 286

Democratic Kerry 59,028,109 48% ecv 252

Independent Nader 411,304 1% ecv 0

 

[neatfreak]

Date: 11/3/2008 6:26:18 PM
Author: JulieN
hey, swimmer, I have a hard time understanding these numbers:


Republican Bush (Incumbent) 62,040,606 51% ecv 286


Democratic Kerry 59,028,109 48% ecv 252


Independent Nader 411,304 1% ecv 0

total votes, percent of votes, electoral college votes (I assume)

 

[neatfreak]

I'm thinking Obama...but who knows things could change tomorrow.

In order for McCain to have enough EV's, some major states would have to go to McCain that are predicted for Obama...otherwise there aren't enough up for grabs for McCain to take it IMO.

 

[swimmer]

Sorry Julie!
I didn't know that indents don't transfer.
OK, lets see if this works better:

Republican, Bush 62,040,606 people voted for him, which was 51% of the population, or 286 electoral college votes

Democratic Kerry 59,028,109 people voted for him, which was 48% of the pop, which was 252 electoral college votes (note, of course number of votes has nothing to do with EC, that is proportional by state)

Independent Nader 411,304 1% or 0 electoral college votes

OK, going back to work, more literature (Obama brochures) drops tonight!

Out of the swing states my prediction is a win in NH, OH, PA, and VA...but am not sure about FLA or NC. How funny that AZ is going to be close!

ETA: Wow Panda! you are optimistic! I'm thinking 311, but will take anything over 270!

 

[panda08]

Date: 11/3/2008 5:41:05 PM
Author:swimmer
And no, I don''t mean Emerald Cut.

It takes 270 electoral votes to win, what do you think the final count will be?

Four years ago with Bush/Kerry the day before the elections the polls predicted:
Strong Kerry (95)
Weak Kerry (105)
Barely Kerry (52)
Exactly tied (0)
Barely Bush (10)
Weak Bush (66)
Strong Bush (183)

And the results were:
Republican Bush (Incumbent) 62,040,606 51% ecv 286

Democratic Kerry 59,028,109 48% ecv 252

Independent Nader 411,304 1% ecv 0

Today''s (4 years later) polls predict:
Strong Obama (23
Weak Obama (73)
Barely Obama (42)
Exactly tied (0)
Barely McCain (53)
Weak McCain (14)
Strong McCain (11

What do you predict?

I''ll play. Obama 381, McCain 157.

 

[Dancing Fire]

should McCain surrender ?

 

[JulieN]

Date: 11/3/2008 7:09:40 PM
Author: Dancing Fire
should McCain surrender ?

fivethirtyeight gives him a 1.9% chance of winning.

 

[whatmeworry]

Obama 364, 53%, McCain 174, 46%

 

[Irishgrrrl]

Here''s a website I found that gives EC predictions: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

A quote from that website:

"So after 2 years, nearly a billion dollars raised and spent, dozens of debates, and many surprises, what does it look like? If you are a Democrat, it looks good; correspondingly, if you are a Republican, it looks gloomy. John McCain made a last-ditch effort to gain ground in Pennsylvania, but it appears to have failed. Obama will take all the states John Kerry won in 2004, worth 252 electoral votes. He also has led consistently in three Bush states: Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado, worth a total of 21 electoral votes. Together with the Kerry states, this gives Obama 273 EVs and the presidency, even if McCain runs the table on the other swing states. However, Obama is leading in Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia, and essentially tied in Florida, North Carolina, and Missouri. It is likely that Obama will win the election with well over 300 electoral votes, possibly 350 of them."