Do You Think The Government of Egypt Will Fall?

[AGBF]

There are huge protests in Egypt against the government of President Mohamed Morsi, who became the elected leader after President Hosni Mubarak was ousted during the Arab Spring uprising. The military is apparently threatening to remove Mr. Morsi, whose Islamic Brotherhood party has been ineffective in dealing with many of Egypts's problems and failed to be inclusive of others. Popular rage at Mr. Morsi and his party in Egypt has continued to build and it may be impossible for him to turn it around. One problem with this solution is that he was democratically elected after the dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak.

Here is an excerpt from an article in today's, "The New York Times".

"The scale of the protests across the country delivered a sharp rebuke to the group’s claim that its victories in Egypt’s newly open parliamentary and presidential elections gave it a mandate to speak for most Egyptians.

'Enough is enough,' said Alaa al-Aswany, a prominent Egyptian writer who was among the many at the protests who had supported the president just a year ago. 'It has been decided for Mr. Morsi. Now, we are waiting for him to understand.'

Shadi Hamid, a researcher at the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar who studies the Muslim Brotherhood closely, said: 'The Brotherhood underestimated its opposition.' He added: 'This is going to be a real moment of truth for the Brotherhood.'

Mr. Morsi and Brotherhood leaders have often ascribed much of the opposition in the streets to a conspiracy led by Mubarak-era political and financial elites determined to bring them down, and they have resisted concessions in the belief that the opposition’s only real motive is the Brotherhood’s defeat. But no conspiracy can bring millions to the streets, and by Sunday night some analysts said the protests would send a message to other Islamist groups around the region in the aftermath of the Arab Spring."


Egypyt is a pivotal state in the Middle East. What do you think is going to happen?

Deb/AGBF

 

[AGBF]

Protests against the government of President Morsi in Egypt have increased. One radio station in New York, 99.5 FM, has been covering the developments well. There is also video footage showing the enormous scope of the protests available at the website democracynow. One report said that 17 million people were in the streets.

Video footage of Egyptian protests...http://www.democracynow.org/2013/7/1/sharif_abdel_kouddous_millions_protesting_morsi

Deb/AGBF

 

[JewelFreak]

I think there will be a military coup -- possibly going on now, according to afternoon news report. Without the support of the army -- and he hasn't a shred of it -- Morsi can't retain his office. Probably a military gov't for a time, then who knows. It's a very sad & unstable situation, exacerbated by the lack of good governing over the past year-plus. Foreign reserves drained, economy in tatters, unemployment has been high for a looong time especially among the burgeoning youth, normal services non-existent.

Another tragic result of all this is looting of archaeological sites & museums. Egyptian ancient history has been one of my great passions since I was 9 -- destruction and/or theft of its beautiful artistry & evidence 5000 years of civilization left to its present citizens breaks my heart beyond belief.

--- Laurie

 

[AGBF]

President Morsi has been ousted from power and the Constitution has been suspended. This site has live newsfeed from Egypt.

Egypt in real time Wednesday night...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbL_q1i7-Pk


Deb/AGBF

 

[kenny]

PLOP!

 

[AGBF]

Another tragic result of all this is looting of archaeological sites & museums. Egyptian ancient history has been one of my great passions since I was 9 -- destruction and/or theft of its beautiful artistry & evidence 5000 years of civilization left to its present citizens breaks my heart beyond belief.

You wrote this earlier today when the coup was underway. As you predicted, matters have gotten worse. Although I have not, yet, read reports on historic sites I have seen the warnings about Americans in Egypt. Those that have lived there as well as non-essential Embassy personnel are being urged to leave due to danger, which means that the situation looks truly dire. Obviously Egypt is not making a smooth transition from one government to another, which sometimes happens even when a country has a bloody coup. I am concerned about the instability there and also about what it will mean for the entire region.

Here is an excerpt from a newspaper article that discusses the situation on the ground.

From, "The New York Times".

"Increasingly alarmed about the violent Egyptian political upheaval, the United States sharply raised the threat level in its travel advisory to Egypt on Wednesday, warning citizens to defer visits and advising American residents there to leave.

An updated travel warning, posted on the Web sites of the State Department and the American Embassy in Cairo, also said the State Department had ordered the evacuation of 'nonemergency U.S. government personnel and family members from Egypt due to the ongoing political and social unrest.'

The Cairo embassy has been shuttered for days as deadly protests have escalated against Mohamed Morsi, the country’s first freely elected president. The military ousted him on Wednesday a little more than one year into his term, and the possibility of lethal clashes has grown.

(snip)​

The new warning is a fresh blow to Egypt’s tourism industry, already devastated from the past two years of political uncertainty. It is unclear how many American expatriates live in Egypt but it is believed to be in the thousands.

Last Friday an American student who taught English in Egypt was stabbed to death during a violent protest between supporters and opponents of Mr. Morsi in the city of Alexandria."

AGBF

 

[perry]

So, would it have been any safer if the Military had not removed Morsi giving the increasing levels of protest against his willingness to work with other groups and the worsening economic conditions?

As much as I do believe that a democratic form of government (or a democratic republic such as the US has) is the long term preferred government; the fact is that they can be hard to actually set up such that they are effective (and they can also loose their effectiveness - which I think the US is starting to trend that direction). Egypt's first attempt appears to have failed. I believe the Egyptian Military does indeed want some form of democratic government - and will try to set up a somewhat different structure that should work better.

For those looking for a comparison - I suggest you look at the history of Turkey. There the Military suspended the government a number of times in the 60's - 70's (and perhaps earlier and later) - and after stabilizing the country tried to set up another democratic government. They eventually got something that worked for Turkey - and Turkey has now had a stable democratic government now for a couple decades and the Turkey Military is fading into the background (Note it is my understanding that the Turkish Constitution specifically provides, or used to provide, for the Military to suspend the government if the government and country is not stable - and then to set up another civilian government after stabilizing things - so in the Case of Turkey the Military never had to suspend their Constitution).

Here within the US - the original Articles of Confederation (the 1st US Constitution) failed to work adequately. Fortunately, political leaders of the time recognized that and called for a Constitutional Convention from which our current Constitution was written.

Have a great day,

 

[MrsAkin]

Perry,

Are you suggesting that the military suspending the elected government several times was good for Turkey's democracy? It seems like you're taking Turkey's democratic past as an example for what's been going on in Egypt. Don't you really think this kind of approach belittles the voters' judgement? Were the Turkish not smart enough to know who they want to serve their country for four years? Aren't Egyptians fit to elect their political leader? Why are the militaries supposed to know what's best for a country and it's citizens? What exactly is setting up democracy in a country?

By the way, there's no such cause in the Turkish Constitution that gives the military the authority to suspend a government. That would give the military an awfully large power over the country. There used to be a "temporary 15. clause" in the constitution which is now annulled with the Law no.5982. The temporary 15. clause used to declare the military personnel literally impossible to be judged because of their actions between the day of the suspension and and until they set up a government. Does this seem fair and logical? The military takes control in a country then makes a constitution, declares itself above the law, forces people to vote in favor of that constitution and then chooses whom to be in charge of the country. Did you know that Kenan Evren claimed they were not taking anyone's side by saying they "hanged equally numbered men from both leftists and rightists" in the name of justice? This is the kind of justice you expect to see in the times of a military suspension. Was this the way that took my country to democracy? I think it was a disgrace in the history of Turkish democracy. Oh, the military isn't fading into background by choice, I believe it's because we truly are in a better place as a country right now. In April 27,2007 during the times of presidential elections the military made a press announcement on it's official website which was basically saying that the high ranked officials were not afraid to take action when they see it necessary and they will make their side clear against the government. The announcement is no longer on the website but I'll give a link about it: http://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/27_Nisan_Genelkurmay_Başkanlığı_Basın_Açıklaması

In times like this I really wish we could speak the same language. There's a lot of stuff I want to talk about, lots of material I'd like to share but they're in Turkish. Some important stuff gets lost in translation. I hope I expressed my opinions in a clear way...

 

[AGBF]

In times like this I really wish we could speak the same language. There's a lot of stuff I want to talk about, lots of material I'd like to share but they're in Turkish. Some important stuff gets lost in translation. I hope I expressed my opinions in a clear way...

I can understand your frustration in struggling with a second (or perhaps a third or fourth) language, MrsAkin, but, believe me, you are eloquent. Your English, even if you cannot use it as easily as Turkish, is flawless. You write English far better than many college-educated native English speakers and are, naturally, far better informed about this subject matter. I am so glad that you are on these boards to comment on the situation in Turkey now.

As far as I am concerned, you made your point about military rule. I would not wish to live in a country where the military could make the rules at will. Your examples were harrowing.

Thank you so much for your comments.

Deb/AGBF

 

[iheartscience]

I'm late to the thread because the government already fell! I have several friends from Egypt, plus I'm a news junkie, so I've been following the story closely. That said, I don't really know what to think, or what the reality of the situation in Egypt is. Was the military carrying out the will of the people? Or are they just paving the way for Mubarak supporters to take over again?

I do think the Muslim Brotherhood overreached, which was the cause of the protests, and I know they forced through a constitution that many Egyptian citizens were not happy with. And Egypt is a very new democracy, so perhaps a future election where another party was elected couldn't have happened due to the constitution instituted? I'm far from understanding the full situation, but those are my initial thoughts!

(And most of all, I feel lucky to live in such a stable country. I can't imagine the upheaval I'd feel living in a country with 2 revolutions in such a short time period.)

 

[perry]

MrsAtkin:

Yes in fact I am directly suggesting that the military intervention in Turkey has in fact been good for Turkey - and is directly responsible for Turkeys status and government today.

I first studied the the Turkish government and history in the early 1980s in college.

First the results:

1) Turkey has been a secular democracy since the late 1920's - with the exception of the 2 major and 2 minor military interventions to keep it so (and it clearly would not be so without those interventions).
2) Turkey is one of the top 20 economies in the world. That is also a direct result of the interventions.

Second the history:

Turkey was founded as an independent state in the early 1920's and originally as an Islamic State. By 1930 the leaders of the country had converted to a Secular Democracy based on "Western forms of government", elimination Islam as the official religion (even though 99%+ of the country is Muslim).

In the late 1950's the government began to restrict rights of journalist and others as a counter to growing concerns by the Turkish population on the economy (many were jailed). This lead to substantial demonstrations in 1960 started largely by college students and which the government tried to suppress with substantially violent results.

This led to the 1st major Military Coup in 1960 that replaced the government to reestablish civility, return rights to journalist, change economic policies, etc. A new Constitution was created; and the Military arranged for new elections for the new government.

The Turkish economy improved and things worked until civil strife broke out after the 1969 elections between the leftist, rightist, and the Kurdish separatists movement. Add to that the major earthquakes in 1970-1971 where the government could not effectively respond as it was too busy fighting among the political parties; and increasing civil strife again in the country and the Turkish Military again stepped in (1971) and essentially changed the people in the leadership positions in the country and told everyone the political parties had to learn to work together.

In the late 1970's the economy got worse and increasing protest and civil strife again began. In 1980 approximately 2000 people died in these protest and the Military had its 2nd major Military Coup to restore order and create a new government. A new constitution was again developed in 1982 and the Military arranged for new elections for the new government after the country was stabilized (the 1980 - 1982 period was a key focus of my college studies on the Turkish government).

Things went well again for a long time until the late 1995 elections gave an Islamic party the largest portion of seats, and the next two largest parties were also Islamic leaning. These parties formed a coalition in 1996 and the county started to implement changes back towards and Islamic republic and started to align with Iran and Libya. This led to the 1997 Military intervention where they forced the resignation of the Prime Minister and banned the primary Islamic political parties (although they allowed everyone except the very top leaders to serve out their terms in government and run for reelection).

The Turkish Military considers themselves to be the Protector of a Democratic Secular Government, and a government that is responsive to the people without creating major civil strife. This has allowed substantial international business to develop which is why they are one of the top 20 economies of the world.

If you look at the history of what they did - when they did it - the fact that they relatively quickly worked to re-establish an elected government when the old one was failing to adequately run the country is very much an indication that what the Turkish Military has done is fairly unique in the world (if not totally Unique). I suspect that the Egyptian Military has studied this history well.

So yes I maintain that the only reason that Turkey is today a both a secular democracy and one of the top 20 economies in the world is precisely because of the intervention of the Turkish Military.

Now, this is not to say that Turkey does not have problems (and despite their economic position in the world unemployment is high); but do you really believe they would be in better shape with a government that had reverted to either a Dictatorship or an Islamic government?

Have a great day,

Perry

 

[MrsAkin]

Perry,

I believe the very heart and soul of democracy is letting a country's every citizen have an equal say in the ruling of their country. This is translated as holding elections and choosing the political leaders to serve for a pre-determined length of time. We have nationwide elections every 4 years in Turkey. If the citizens are not happy with a government, they can always vote in favor of some other politician and take the old ones down. This is the only way to take down a government in a democracy. There's no way for a group of people to say "What do these people know about democracy, I'll decide for them" and try to take control of the country despite the citizens' free will. There's a saying by M. Kemal Atatürk which was made a principle and amended in our constitution's article 6: " Sovereignty is vested fully and unconditionally in the nation" It doesn't say in the military or some other force. This principle is written on the wall of our parliament building since 1925.

Yes, the high ranked Turkish Military officials has a tendency to think otherwise. It's because Atatürk was a soldier and our first prime minister and second president İsmet İnönü was a soldier( I'm saying soldiers because I don't really know the English words to describe their position in the military). Up until 2007, our president was Ahmet Necdet Sezer who is known as being close to the military. I can see why some generals think they're entitled to have the largest say in our country but thing's are not working with having military coups every 10 years anymore. Our current government is not supported by the military, I think you can clearly see it in the example I gave in my last message, yet we still managed to grow economically. Our prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was arrested in 1997 in the aftermath of the "postmodern coup". Yet he's serving for 10 years and our GDP is now four times what it used to be. It's really not realistic at all to think that the military interventions were helping this country. It's not even relevant.

Let's talk about what really happens during and after a military coup in a country. I was born in 1986 so I clearly remember the atmosphere during the 1997 events or "balance adjustments to democracy" as Çevik Bir, a general would like to call it. I remember my cousins being kicked out of universities that they earned the right to study during the headscarf ban. I remember several of my friends' fathers being threatened to lose their jobs because they were praying and their wives were wearing headscarfs. Those in the military were fired within the blink of an eye. Most of my childhood friends had parents who worked as professors in the university of my hometown. Their housing was provided by the university, near the campus. Suddenly wearing headscarfs was banned within the campus area. Women stayed inside their houses for the fear of being forced to take their scarves off. Can you even guess how degrading, how horrible this feels? It feels like being naked in front of the whole world. Could you get down to your underwear in public and be okay with it? I remember men suddenly shaving their mustaches in the fear of being "labeled". Labeling and name calling were normal during those days. I remember the closing of the parties, the Merve Kavakçı incident. You vote for a party and the next thing you know it's being closed because "some people" get afraid that they're losing the power over the country. The 1997 intervention was not made against a dictatorship, it was directed at Muslims by a self-entitled group of military officials. I'm saying self-entitled because nowhere in the constitution says the military has this kind of power. The president is chosen by the parliament or elected by the citizens in some cases. Both ways equals to the president being chosen by the people. This elected president is also the commander in chief of the military as it is written on our constitution. Where do militaries of both Egypt and Turkey get their power from? It's clear, there's nothing legal and just in a military coup. I believe militaries are there to protect and serve a country- not to take the country back 20 years by arbitrarily firing, threatening, killing it's own citizens and creating an environment of fear and oppression.

The effects of the last intervention lasted for a long time. I passed the university entrance exam and won the right to study law in Istanbul University but couldn't get behind the doors of my school because of my beliefs. I couldn't sit on the desks and listen to the lectures, I just studied at home and passed my exams. Didn't I deserve a normal university life just like my other friends? Is the balance adjustment of democracy not letting practicing Muslim girls have an education? Not letting people have an education doesn't move a country forward as you think. Thousands of college aged girls had to go to Europe to have higher education. Girls were made fun of, openly told that they don't deserve an education in the Modern Republic of Turkey, and if they still wanted to pursue it they may go to Saudi Arabia. Isn't kicking young minds abroad a shame for a country? This is exile. It was up to the current government to clean this mess up.

Do you know how the military personnel here is chosen? They do a strict background check. They want to see the pictures of your family to check for traces of Islam in your lifestyle, they check the schools you went to. It's not easy to be accepted even into military schools here. My brother served his country in military for longer than a year in Diyarbakır, yet me and my sister were not allowed to participate in his oath of enlistment.

It's something to study some country's history and another to live in the reality of it. I wanted to give an inside view of a country in distress. Contrary to what some people think democracy isn't "just for some". It's not rocket science, people can and should have a right to self determination. It's not true that some people doesn't know better. The history is written by winners and it's so easy to call someone a dictator, but actions speak louder than words. We will live and see this again in the example of Egypt.

 

[MrsAkin]

Deb,

Thank you for your encouraging words. You are always so welcoming to me! I tend to keep quiet and mostly read what other people say and only participate when I think I have something like a unique piece of jewelry or a different point of view. I hope I'm helping to enrich this forum like you are

 

[AGBF]

I tend to keep quiet and mostly read what other people say and only participate when I think I have something like a unique piece of jewelry or a different point of view. I hope I'm helping to enrich this forum like you are

I do not know if you have any idea how much you enrich Pricescope, MrsAkin. You are not only well-educated and well-written, but you are very thoughtful. As Ella would tell you after moderating discussions here for a few years, not all posters put a lot of thought into what they have written before they hit, "submit". I know that I often do not put sufficient thought into what I write and later have to go back to clarify my position! I hope that you will continue to share prolifically.

You have me convinced on two points after having read what you wrote above. The first point is one on which you would have wished to convince me: that each country should be self-determining through democracy rather than through military coup if there is a choice. (I am not sure that there is ever a choice, though, unless a foreign power intervenes and I don't even want to start discussing that scenario!)

The second point may not be a point on which you wanted to persuade me, because it may not be one in which you believe. It is that any democratic country is going to be more truly democratic if everyone is allowed freedom of religion. As you probably know, we are guaranteed that here in the United States.

Deb/AGBF

 

[MrsAkin]

Deb, you're making me blush... I just write my opinions and try to avoid offending people. Me being right or "winning" is not worth making someone feel bad. I believe we all have our own battles in life and every single person is precious.

About the second point I convinced you, stating otherwise would make me a hypocrite. If I want freedom of religion for myself, I wouldn't be opposed to non-Muslims have freedom for themselves as well. To be honest I didn't have much interaction with people who believe in other religions, although I had some friends who were non believers when I was getting my master's degree. Everyone has their opinions and we may not agree upon everything. I think the case here is not personally attacking each other.

Did you see the news about Egypt? The soldiers opened fire on hundreds of civilians who were praying. I read that 53 people are dead(5 of them being children) and over 300 people are wounded. It is said that the wounded were not allowed to receive medical attention.