Diamond price increase

[DreamingOfDiamonds]

This may be a dumb question but how much more more diamonds increase with the tariffs? I’m interested in natural & not lab grown…

 

[TXwidow]

I doubt anyone can answer that question without more info. Where is diamond being shipped from? Where will diamond be shipped to (end user)? Many tariffs are now (again) on 90 day hold, except for China? When will you purchase--now or more than 90 days from now?

 

[tyty333]

This may be a dumb question but how much more more diamonds increase with the tariffs? I’m interested in natural & not lab grown…

Stones from India are supposed to go up by 27%, I believe. Take a look at this article from Rapaport.

Diamond and Jewelry Trade Braces for Impact of US Tariffs

The US has placed tariffs of 10% on imports from all countries and higher duties on India, prompting concern and uncertainty in the industry.

rapaport.com

I was watching some stones on BN and JA in the $650 range. Seems like a couple of them have gone up by $100 dollars or more.
So it seems like the tariffs are hitting.

I had an old Pricescope search up that has the cost, but when I click on a stone, it may or may not be that cost. Just saw one that
was on PS listed at $730 but now its $780.

 

[Rockdiamond]

We've already gotten quite a few emails from large diamond cutters warning of price increases.
It's a weird market in so many ways- even before the tariffs.
Demand for natural diamonds is down.
Even so, that does not mean prices have been much softer.
If we need a stone, it's expensive. If we need to sell a stone we own- to raise cash- we get killed on the cash market.
It's never been "easy" to sell diamonds.
It's harder than ever, which should soften the price. But it's not.
I see this as another move to oligarchy in the diamond business.
"Let them eat lab grown"
The people in charge of these massive cutting companies have so much money, they can afford to sit on the goods and wait.
Likely that consumers who want natural diamonds will be paying more.

 

[kenny]

Stones from India are supposed to go up by 27%, I believe. Take a look at this article from Rapaport.

Diamond and Jewelry Trade Braces for Impact of US Tariffs

The US has placed tariffs of 10% on imports from all countries and higher duties on India, prompting concern and uncertainty in the industry.

rapaport.com

I was watching some stones on BN and JA in the $650 range. Seems like a couple of them have gone up by $100 dollars or more.
So it seems like the tariffs are hitting.

I had an old Pricescope search up that has the cost, but when I click on a stone, it may or may not be that cost. Just saw one that
was on PS listed at $730 but now its $780.

... perhaps just a previously-planned increase that happened right now.
... perhaps just pre-tariff gouging ... either from BN itself, or from their supplier, which is passed on to their customers.

You've heard of pay it forward ... well this could be charge it forward.

Why would anyone do that, you ask?
The same reason a dog licks his b___s. ............... it feels good,,,,,, and he CAN.

 

[sledge]

LOL @kenny and your dog analogy.

We pushed the billion dollar mark last year and continuing to chase big work. We buy lots of materials and many of those suppliers are getting nervous. Mind you, we build roads & bridges and not diamonds. We are starting to see shortened validity, escalation clauses, etc. Nothing like COVID when I was getting quotes that was literally valid to COB the day they were sent.

I tend to agree with @Rockdiamond that diamonds are a different breed. It’s a luxury purchase. Sure, people will get married regardless of the markets but many will switch to more reasonably priced alternatives. Those that are dead set on natural and/or have more discretionary income will gripe but continue to buy. As inventory slows, suppliers will get hungry and balance will restore.

Look at the car market. A few years back you were lucky to buy at sticker. Now the dealers & manufacturers throw cash at you like you’re a stripper on a pole.

 

[oncrutchesrightnow]

So far of the diamonds I track, some high color/high clarity prices have gone up ~5%, but not all. Low color and/or low clarity have not budged and a few have decreased slightly.

 

[WillyDiamond]

I have been reading a lot about diamond price increases with the tariffs. No one is sure what is going to be. I have not seen definitive numbers.
However, you have options. There are certain products we really have no choice to pay up, such as diapers for children, milk for children. We need these items to live and very few if any substitutes. Diamonds are not one of them. Find an alternative like LGD or a different stone or just put off the purchase for now if the price is uncomfortable to pay. If you do pay up when the prices go up then you are really condoning on what is going on with tariffs and reciprocal tariffs. Take back your power. If demand decreases you will see prices go down.

 

[Mrsz1ppy]

I asked my local jeweler what her take on the tariffs was. Her response, with raised eyebrows, was that her diamond stock just went up 27%, but she was waiting to see how it played out.

 

[canuk-gal]

I asked my local jeweler what her take on the tariffs was. Her response, with raised eyebrows, was that her diamond stock just went up 27%, but she was waiting to see how it played out.

Wasn't her stock already purchased and cost sunk??

 

[Mrsz1ppy]

Wasn't her stock already purchased and cost sunk??

My thoughts exactly! I mention it here, because that shows a mindset.

Big diamonds can take years to sell. I’m not in the diamond business but guess that is true. Just thought it was an interesting insight.

 

[Karl_K]

Wasn't her stock already purchased and cost sunk??

A lot of stores that own stones work on a rotating stock basis.
They buy a 1ct h-vs2 blah blah blah stone.
They sell that stone and replace it in stock and the $$ difference between the sale price and the price to replace it is what keeps the lights on.
If they sold the diamond based on what they paid for it they would either not have the money to buy another and or the money to keep the doors open.
So buy at $1 sold at $1.50 but it costs $1.60 to buy another for stock the rotation stops.
That is why most stocking dealers can not hold the line on prices for long.

 

[sledge]

A lot of stores that own stones work on a rotating stock basis.
They buy a 1ct h-vs2 blah blah blah stone.
They sell that stone and replace it in stock and the $$ difference between the sale price and the price to replace it is what keeps the lights on.
If they sold the diamond based on what they paid for it they would either not have the money to buy another and or the money to keep the doors open.
So buy at $1 sold at $1.50 but it costs $1.60 to buy another for stock the rotation stops.
That is why most stocking dealers can not hold the line on prices for long.

Short version — the customer is cash flowing operations. No condemnation as many businesses use a similar approach but I hope they have some cash reserves to stay afloat when the markets correct, and to have some breathing room in general.

We do a similar thing. In our case we determine profit margin, say 15%. If there are 20 pay items that get paid as the project progresses some will naturally occur sooner than others. Early items are front loaded with higher margin. Middle items will have less margin. And items to be completed last will have little to no margin and possibly negative. On larger projects you can get far enough ahead to put some of that cash into interest bearing accounts while you are waiting to take profit on the books. We have a job in progress right now that we’ve been able to realize about $2.5m additional margin in unplanned interest. Until realized, it was considered additional project contingency which would have offset any potential profit fade risk before converting to actual margin. More than that, this process keeps from using our own cash reserves to buy materials, or for those without cash reserves from borrowing money (and paying interest, which naturally creates some profit fade if unplanned).

In our case, we have to assume escalation risk at bid time. These larger projects take 2-4 years to complete. We manage that risk by asking suppliers to tell us what their escalation factors will be for X years out. If they can’t or won’t we have to guess for them. Early procurement helps reduce the risk along with early deliveries, temporary storage yards and potential double handling of materials. Those elements have costs too but are often more manageable & predictable.

 

[Karl_K]

@sledge welcome back!

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

Short version — the customer is cash flowing operations. No condemnation as many businesses use a similar approach but I hope they have some cash reserves to stay afloat when the markets correct, and to have some breathing room in general.

We do a similar thing. In our case we determine profit margin, say 15%. If there are 20 pay items that get paid as the project progresses some will naturally occur sooner than others. Early items are front loaded with higher margin. Middle items will have less margin. And items to be completed last will have little to no margin and possibly negative. On larger projects you can get far enough ahead to put some of that cash into interest bearing accounts while you are waiting to take profit on the books. We have a job in progress right now that we’ve been able to realize about $2.5m additional margin in unplanned interest. Until realized, it was considered additional project contingency which would have offset any potential profit fade risk before converting to actual margin. More than that, this process keeps from using our own cash reserves to buy materials, or for those without cash reserves from borrowing money (and paying interest, which naturally creates some profit fade if unplanned).

In our case, we have to assume escalation risk at bid time. These larger projects take 2-4 years to complete. We manage that risk by asking suppliers to tell us what their escalation factors will be for X years out. If they can’t or won’t we have to guess for them. Early procurement helps reduce the risk along with early deliveries, temporary storage yards and potential double handling of materials. Those elements have costs too but are often more manageable & predictable.

Yes, welcome back @sledge!
We signed just before covid and had our house built 2 months ahead of schedule completed in 2022. The builder puts all the expensive stuff in a warehouse as soon as clients sign.
They won an award on our home. Planning planning and management!

With diamonds, natural prices are comparatively low and near the bottom right now.

Re your President - I believe he is doing a Reagan and aims to get trading partners to lower Tariffs to yours - USA has the lowest in the world. He may jack a few up where there are employment and strategic factors, like steel where votes and security count. I am not sure he is the brains, but there are some clever behind the scences dudes.

 

[sledge]

Thank you @Karl_K and @Garry H (Cut Nut). I’m glad to be back for a bit. Sure have missed everyone and the many good conversations we tend to have here.

Congrats on the “new” house! Even without COVID, escalation & material shortages that is an exciting experience in itself. To see it transform from land through all the various stages can be an emotional roller coaster for most folks. Sounds like your builder was very smart & strategic and saved you loads of stress, money and time! Would love to see some pics if you’ve got them loaded somewhere.

I’ve been catching up on diamond pricing, etc but noticed very quickly prices were down from when I last bought. At least on naturals which is what I prefer most. That kind of surprised me a bit. Given all the various changes I would have expected some volatility but overall expected prices would have risen as my last purchase was a few years before COVID. I speculate it’s a combo of increased LGD market share, reduced natural demand, saturated supply & and overall discretionary product purchase.

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

I speculate it’s a combo of increased LGD market share, reduced natural demand, saturated supply & and overall discretionary product purchase.

The main driver is China. A lot of companies exported loose diamonds so they could buy gold. When finances are threatened as they are with property there gold is the go to!
Indians bought 560 ton of gold jewellery and hundreds of ton of gold bars last year.
Lab diamonds have taken a lot of lower and middle young markets.
Economics has done the rest.

 

[Rockdiamond]

I wish I had Garry’s confidence that there’s some sort of plan.
From my perspective- limited by my NY diamond dealer situation- the prices of natural diamonds is artificially high.
If the tariffs cause a general decline in our economy- and that seems pretty certain- diamond prices will fall further.
What I see from here is a consolidation of natural diamond cutters in India. Super rich concerns that can wait out instability in the market.
This has seemed to support the price of natural diamonds artificially. Again, my limited NY perspective.
And it seems like the growth in Lab diamonds is unabated. Also pushing the prices of naturals down
@sledge. Hey!!!!!

 

[Rockdiamond]

I’ve always been a “soft sell” dealer. Now with Labs coming to prominence, I always ask - lab or natural?
I don’t try to influence them to go one way or the other. I give an honest assessment of the market and advantages of each.
For the past few years, labs have been most people’s choice.
I’m surprised when people choose Natural stones lately.
Last month a client wrote : “I’ve got $80k to invest- can you show me a blue diamond?”
I just can’t work with that sort of request.
I had to explain how even if he’d gotten a great deal on the $80k stone, he’d lose at least 40% if he needed to sell it the next day.
There was a lovely Fancy Blue Internally Flawless I saw- it was $500k
I guess if $500k was an insignificant amount to the buyer… maybe that 1/2mil stone might be a “smart” investment.
I’m sure many dealers would take a different tactic.
For my lifetime the investment aspect of diamond ownership has been purported to be an asset. It’s a lie.
The upswing in labs, combined with downturn in economy - and tariffs - seem to be strong indications that natural prices are not bottoming out yet

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

For a bit of fun (and because I believe it is what is happening) I posted this on my LI and a jewelers network on FB:


Lab Diamonds and China’s (relative) recession (plus US tariff issues) mean diamond miners are closing mines.
This mine pictured in Canada is closing next year.
Debswana (50:50 De Beers and Botswana gov) has two facilities on care and maintenance. Botswana has had its credit rating dropped by Moody.
Petra delays the sale of 200,000 carats from its Cullinan mine in South Africa. Alrosa may not go underground at its biggest open pit mine. Argyle decided not to go to a lower underground level.
Diamond geologist prospectors are looking for EV rare earths.
If it’s not the bottom in prices and demand – it's close. The diamonds will still be underground when prices rebound.
"It's the economy, stupid"

 

[Rockdiamond]

If it’s not the bottom in prices and demand – it's close. The diamonds will still be underground when prices rebound.
"It's the economy, stupid"

I think demographics are the determining factors here.
Younger buyers have less objections to Lab diamonds and are less likely to buy into “A Diamond is Forever “ marketing

From my perspective, naturals are not going to “recover”

 

[Rockdiamond]

We just finished a heavy 18kt gold ring. The cost was about almost double than one we made in January.
A $1500 ring would now be $2600
That's without the diamond.
It's possible diamond prices will remain stable- or even drop regardless of tariffs.

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

We just finished a heavy 18kt gold ring. The cost was about almost double than one we made in January.
A $1500 ring would now be $2600
That's without the diamond.
It's possible diamond prices will remain stable- or even drop regardless of tariffs.

Interesting point David, if the budget for a ring was $5k then the diamond just shrunk quite a bit!

 

[oncrutchesrightnow]

Any objective industry-wide stats yet?

Unscientific crutches-o-meter: No movement the past few weeks on the diamonds I follow, with the exception of FCD that are located outside the U.S.

 

[Rockdiamond]

exception of FCD that are located outside the U.S.

Do tell!!!
What have you noticed????
I’m genuinely interested. The market has gotten so fragmented it’s hard to tell.
For example/ brown diamonds.
From what I’m seeing that segment is done. Why mine or cut such rough with the advent of lab diamonds???
Recents searches yield ugly cut, dark brown dead stones. Leftovers from eternity.
Hearing the observations of others is essential!

 

[oncrutchesrightnow]

May 2024


April 2025

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

Play with the IDEX tool and always look at our PriceScope price index - as that includes the retailers markups. And you can do all shapes and all sizes!

This is the total orange, blue is 4ct round and red is 5ct round over 5 years.
Link: http://www.idexonline.com/diamond_prices_index

 

[melz]

We've already gotten quite a few emails from large diamond cutters warning of price increases.
It's a weird market in so many ways- even before the tariffs.
Demand for natural diamonds is down.
Even so, that does not mean prices have been much softer.
If we need a stone, it's expensive. If we need to sell a stone we own- to raise cash- we get killed on the cash market.
It's never been "easy" to sell diamonds.
It's harder than ever, which should soften the price. But it's not.
I see this as another move to oligarchy in the diamond business.
"Let them eat lab grown"
The people in charge of these massive cutting companies have so much money, they can afford to sit on the goods and wait.
Likely that consumers who want natural diamonds will be paying more.

This week I went to consign a diamond bought ten years ago. I’ve been completely out of it, and was shocked by the decrease — not from selling vs buying, but from selling now vs selling 10 years ago.

 

[Rockdiamond]

May 2024


April 2025

Wow, cool research!!!
Although a single stone - especially one as unusual as that one- doesn’t give us any sort of statistical information.
Sites like the one quoted are just portals. The cutter changed the cost, then the site reflects that.
Larger, broad industry changes are happening.

 

[oncrutchesrightnow]

Wow, cool research!!!
Although a single stone - especially one as unusual as that one- doesn’t give us any sort of statistical information.
Sites like the one quoted are just portals. The cutter changed the cost, then the site reflects that.
Larger, broad industry changes are happening.

Thanks! Most of the time I only take screenshots when prices fall. I don’t know if there is a consumer-facing FCD price index. I went to the wayback machine a few months ago and here is an example from 2018.