are we already in a recession or heading towards one?

[Dancing Fire]

what do you think? does business seem slow in your area?

we eat out a lot. during the pass 6 months seems like the restaurant business (chinese and american) are really slow.no waiting or reservations needed during dinner hours.

 

[tradergirl]

Here's something for you.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=38853#post38853

 

[LitigatorChick]

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck.....

 

[diamondfan]

As I see it in my area, I am sure people are making choices on large expenditures but the daily stuff does not seem affected to me. We have friends building large second vacation homes still, traveling, buying jewelry.

I am not in their pockets or wallets, so ultimately I do not know the details, but where I live it does not seem too bad.

 

[VegasAngel]

I cannot believe how many businesses have closed here. Once full business complexes are empty, it''s crazy.

Casinos are slow. Only thing helping out is conventions. Sumertime is slow anyway but with gas prices & flying being expensive people are staying put. A friend of mine who works at Trump is scared she is going to lose her job. MGM Mirage cleaned house not too long ago. Most of the casinos are only hiring for on-call. Who can pay bills working on-call? A lot of restaurants that would normally be full are bare bones.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 6/25/2008 10:37:14 AM
Author: VegasAngel
I cannot believe how many businesses have closed here. Once full business complexes are empty, it''s crazy.

Casinos are slow. Only thing helping out is conventions. Sumertime is slow anyway but with gas prices & flying being expensive people are staying put. A friend of mine who works at Trump is scared she is going to lose her job. MGM Mirage cleaned house not too long ago. Most of the casinos are only hiring for on-call. Who can pay bills working on-call? A lot of restaurants that would normally be full are bare bones.

i notice casino stocks been tanking in the pass few months.

 

[Erin]

My company and our sister company have been in this town for over 17 years. This is the first year we took down our NOW HIRING sign out front and fired - not layed off - 30 people. It should pick back up but we just don''t have the business to sustain our full time employees.

I recently organized our local ACS fundraiser. Our last five years have had contributions between $55,000 - 60,000. This year it was $38,000. Donations come from disposable income. This is a good indicator that people in this area aren''t doing well.

 

[merlinthecat]

Things are bleak here in the UK too DF.

Utility prices (gas and electricity for heating the home etc) are forecast to rise between 30-40% in the next 12-months. Food prices have also gone through the roof recently...and don't even ask how much it costs to fill your car up here!

But house prices are starting to fall...for anyone who has any money left to pay a mortgage!

It's hard to judge whether it's as bad as reported on the news, or whether the media just takes pleasure in scaring us?

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 6/25/2008 11:52:30 AM
Author: merlinthecat
Things are bleak here in the UK too DF.

Utility prices (gas and electricity for heating the home etc) are forecast to rise between 30-40% in the next 12-months. Food prices have also gone through the roof recently...and don''t even ask how much it costs to fill your car up here!

But house prices are starting to fall...for anyone who has any money left to pay a mortgage!

It''s hard to judge whether it''s as bad as reported on the news, or whether the media just takes pleasure in scaring us?

been like that for the pass 2 yrs here in the US. UK just catching up.

 

[tradergirl]

Diamond Fan, you said:

We have friends building large second vacation homes still, traveling, buying jewelry.


With all respect, are you not the wife of a private equity partner or venture capitalist? Living in an 11,000 square foot house and moving into one twice that size? Wearing a 9 carat diamond around?

Those comments you made are quite disingenuous. Let them eat cake, right?

The reason for this recessession, and it is one, is the worldwide credit bubble which enabled people and funds to take on inordinate amounts of leverage using cheap money to speculate. Whether it is flip this house (regular joe) or "flip this corporation" (private equity fund), the end result is the same. This is not the forum for discussing how private equity funds make their money (the details are not pretty) but suffice it to say that the pain currently hitting retail consumers and people upside down in speculative houses will move onto the higher end and private equity companies in the coming years when the plans to spin off the companies they "bought" with borrowed money are not welcomed by a market already burned. The leverage used by private equity companies (note recent stories on Cerebrus for one) was no different than Cindy Consumer buying a Las Vegas condo and many will have the same end.

I work for myself as an independent equity and derivatives trader so I am well aware of all this. I have done very well the past two years betting against this RE and equity market and a couple of my best shorts have been Blackstone and Fortress (FIG). Yes, all the principals got phat taking those companies public but it has been at the expense of the economy in general, has cost job losses, etc. I'm sure none of them spend a moment worrying about any of that. It is not over either; in fact, the worst is yet to come.

The bifurcation of the American economic classes is a problem that is bad and getting worse. Real incomes for the average person are flat to down while those with access to the pools of easy money have beneifited greatly. So, your perspective on a recession is, frankly, irrelevant, at least so far. I would guess in a year or so things might look different to your social set.

And again, this is not a personal attack although it may seem like one. Just a more balanced view of what is really going on.

 

[ringster]

Date: 6/25/2008 5:17:39 PM
Author: tradergirl
Diamond Fan, you said:


We have friends building large second vacation homes still, traveling, buying jewelry.



With all respect, are you not the wife of a private equity partner or venture capitalist? Living in an 11,000 square foot house and moving into one twice that size? Wearing a 9 carat diamond around?


Those comments you made are quite disingenuous. Let them eat cake, right?


The reason for this recessession, and it is one, is the worldwide credit bubble which enabled people and funds to take on inordinate amounts of leverage using cheap money to speculate. Whether it is flip this house (regular joe) or ''flip this corporation'' (private equity fund), the end result is the same. This is not the forum for discussing how private equity funds make their money (the details are not pretty) but suffice it to say that the pain currently hitting retail consumers and people upside down in speculative houses will move onto the higher end and private equity companies in the coming years when the plans to spin off the companies they ''bought'' with borrowed money are not welcomed by a market already burned. The leverage used by private equity companies (note recent stories on Cerebrus for one) was no different than Cindy Consumer buying a Las Vegas condo and many will have the same end.


I work for myself as an independent equity and derivatives trader so I am well aware of all this. I have done very well the past two years betting against this RE and equity market and a couple of my best shorts have been Blackstone and Fortress (FIG). Yes, all the principals got phat taking those companies public but it has been at the expense of the economy in general, has cost job losses, etc. I''m sure none of them spend a moment worrying about any of that. It is not over either; in fact, the worst is yet to come.


The bifurcation of the American economic classes is a problem that is bad and getting worse. Real incomes for the average person are flat to down while those with access to the pools of easy money have beneifited greatly. So, your perspective on a recession is, frankly, irrelevant, at least so far. I would guess in a year or so things might look different to your social set.


And again, this is not a personal attack although it may seem like one. Just a more balanced view of what is really going on.

bravo! well said!

 

[2Artists]

It is interesting to hear from a variety of viewpoints about the current economic situation. The more viewpoints and the more differing the viewpoints the better. I am curious to hear it all. I am in California and there are a lot people very discouraged about the economy. Gas, food, and home prices have many of the most financially vulnerable in a very particularly tight spot. Like low income single mothers.

There are some people really hurting from this. I heard a news story the other day about how more children are saving the food from their school lunches so they can have something to eat later because they are going hungry. Also heard a story about how more women are going hungry because they are not eating so that their families can eat. Also a story about how food banks are in trouble because of greatly increased demand. Widespread. Not right. Many people are one financial setback away from ruin.

Growing up my Mom had me volunteer with her at a local food pantry (that was very lovingly run) and I remember how shocked and saddened I was as a child to see teachers having to come in and get food at the food pantry so that they could survive. Not right at all. Good teachers need to be MUCH more valued. Yeah I do see a lot of people struggling. In the city I live there are many of the richest and the poorest who live fairly near each other. From what I can see even some of the wealthiest are being a bit more careful with their pennies. The poor are especially suffering.

female half 2Artists

 

[diamondfan]

Tradergirl, first of all my dear it IS personal if you directly address me and my comments, and are derisive about what my personal experience is. It is not disingenuous to answer the question honestly as it pertains to my neighborhood and situation where I spend my time. Should I suppose your "let them eat cake" line was NOT an offensive remark aimed at my comments? You throw out things about my life that were pertinent informational items in various threads, and THAT is personal in my book. I am not a snob and know full well that our economy is in crisis and that there are people suffering. I read newspapers and watch the news all too frequently and know about what is going on in this country.

Secondly, the question was our perception of the recession, were businesses slow in our areas etc. I am NOT commenting about anywhere but where I am. And here, among my friends, and in the community at large, overall it is NOT as apparent as other places. The reality here is I see people MOSTLY going about their lives and spending and doing as they normally do with minor adjustments or exceptions. This is the reality where I live, and as I stated very clearly, it is the outer view of things, as I am not in people's wallets nor do I know there bank account balances. However, I live in an affluent area and I would say, based on what I see, that most of the people I know of and socialize with are NOT YET as adversely affected as some other people might be. Would you like it better if I lied or speculated about situations I have no knowledge of? I happen to live in a pocket that while less common still has validity in the overall scheme of the ecomony and is not totally out of the ordinary.

It is really none of your business to call me out, I answered DF's question honestly and accurately based on MY experiences. I do not need a lesson in the economy from you, as again, I KNOW there is a recession in the US, and it is likely to get worse before it is better. However, the question was fairly specific as to how it was affecting or not affect various areas as we know it, which I answered. If yours are different, say so. There is room for all views and circumstances here.

 

[LAJennifer]

Date: 6/25/2008 9:20:14 PM
Author: diamondfan
Tradergirl, first of all my dear it IS personal if you directly address me and my comments, and are derisive about what my personal experience is. Should I suppose your ''let them eat cake'' line was NOT an offensive remark aimed at my comments? You throw out things about my life that were pertinent informational items in various threads, and THAT is personal in my book. I am not a snob and know full well that our economy is in crisis and that there are people suffering. I read newspapers and watch the news all too frequently and know about what is going on in this country.

Secondly, the question was our perception of the recession, were businesses slow in our areas etc. I am NOT commenting about anywhere but where I am. And here, among my friends, and in the community at large, overall it is NOT as apparent as other places. The reality here is I see people MOSTLY going about their lives and spending and doing as they normally do with minor adjustments or exceptions. This is the reality where I live, and as I stated very clearly, it is the outer view of things, as I am not in people''s wallets nor do I know there bank account balances. However, I live in an affluent area and I would say, based on what I see, that most of the people I know of and socialize with are NOT YET as adversely affected as some other people might be. Would you like it better if I lied or speculated about situations I have no knowledge of? I happen to live in a pocket that while less common still has validity in the overall scheme of the ecomony and is not totally out of the ordinary.

It is really none of your business to call me out, I answered DF''s question honestly and accurately based on MY experiences. I do not need a lesson in the economy from you, as again, I KNOW there is a recession in the US, and it is likely to get worse before it is better. However, the question was fairly specific as to how it was affecting or not affect various areas as we know it, which I answered. If yours are different, say so. There is room for all views and circumstances here.

Diamondfan - I just want to tell you that I consider you my peer (and I was raised up a holler in rural West Virginia, currently renting a 2 bedroom apartment in West Hollywood, while hubby and I barely make six figures). Nothing snobbish about you at all.

 

[Dancing Fire]

we were in the San Diego area three weeks ago...

you know the economy must be pretty bad when you can drive speed limit + on a southern Ca freeway during traffic hours. we got seated right away during dinner hour at a cheese cake factory w/o waiting. this cheese cake factory restaurant was located in a high end shopping center.

 

[diamondfan]

LAJennifer, thanks so much. I hate to feel that I have to defend myself, and hope the people here who read the various threads I post in know that I am honest and real but not a snob. Ask me a question and I will answer truthfully. I appreciate your kind comments and right back at you!

DF, to elaborate, in the Main Line, of course a business here or there might go under or some places might not be crowded or hard to get a table. That is certainly not something we are totally immune to here. But it is not what appears to be most prominent.

 

[tradergirl]

DF: When you put pertinent details about your financial life on a public message board, they become fair game for commentary.

My point was the industry that has made you and yours so wealthy is also a very big part of why there is recession that is affecting people who have not attained such lofty levels.

 

[diamondfan]

I understand economics, but FYI my hubby''s business comes in to SAVE or help people who made business errors and are facing issues now. He often minimizes the negative impact, and it is NOT of his creation by a long shot.

I also know that by posting here it is public but YOU used it to be offensive and knock my remarks. THAT is what I find objectionable.

 

[LitigatorChick]

I''d agree with DiamondFan - the remarks here got quite personal and offensive to DiamondFan. Now, back to that recession....

 

[diamondfan]

Thanks LC...and how is the Canadian economy faring? The Canadian dollar against our devalued currency? I have some family and friends there and think the Canadian dollar is strong, or so I heard a while ago...

 

[LitigatorChick]

The Canadian economy, particularly out in the west, is quite strong. The Canadian dollar is at par with the US dollar, compared to being about 70 cents a few years back. In my city, the housing prices have stabilized and even dropped a bit, but I think this was just a re-balancing after a crazy couple of years where house prices basically doubled.

In short, people are spending like it is going out of style out here in the wild west of Canada. Life''s good!

 

[diamondfan]

That is great. I have not been there in many years. Nice to hear it is stable.

Here, housing is iffy in some areas, but in spots prices are holding. A nice house that is highly priced will sit longer, whereas when I moved here, even high priced stuff moved fast if it was a good property.

Our shore area which has been climbing for years is finally equalizing a bit but prices were so vastly overinflated that they are still amazingly high for what you actually get.

Most of the popular restaurants in Philly are busy, and a Sat night reservation at other than 5 pm or 9 pm is not easy to get without calling weeks in advance for the most part.

I just went to see Mary Poppins on Broadway, I paid a broker for seats, but face value was 110.00 for center orchestra and the place was mobbed, as was the entire theater district.

I guess my overall point was it can be easy to be lulled into thinking things are not SOOOO bad if you live somewhere where it is reasonably stable. But the prices at the pump and even in the food market are pretty nuts, and I see that on a daily basis.

 

[LitigatorChick]

I agree that gas prices are getting steep. But say it used to cost me $60 to fill my car, now it costs $80. And say I fill up once a week. That''s only $80 a month more - not really a huge issue. It sure isn''t affecting people where I live.

 

[diamondfan]

I know, it just kills me that here, not too long ago, it was under 1.00 a gallon for gas. My car, for full serve, can cost 100.00 to fill and sometimes I am at the gas station a couple of times a week. (I can only do self serve at stations where the pump does not have to be squeezed the whole time as I have grip issues). It would cost 25.00 or so a few years ago. Not make or break for me, thankfully, but I know for a lot of people it can be so tough. Many trucking companies are laying off workers and those who drive their own vehicles are finding it cost prohibitive. Also, UPS and Fed Ex downgraded their earnings projections because fuel costs are eating into their profits as consumers are also shopping less since they are spending more on gas!

 

[LitigatorChick]

The issue is not as much at the consumer level as at the industry level for fuel prices, agreed. Fortunately, I live in an economy powered by oil, so the benefit and profit outweighs the costs.

 

[diamondfan]

Tradergirl, just wanted to add you know NOTHING about my husband, his firm, or how his business operates. Please keep your theories regarding how we attained our money and your judgmental comments about my lifestyle to yourself. It is frankly none of your business and you are not correct about it, your analysis of the US economy notwithstanding.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 6/25/2008 9:57:59 PM
Author: diamondfan
DF, to elaborate, in the Main Line, of course a business here or there might go under or some places might not be crowded or hard to get a table. That is certainly not something we are totally immune to here. But it is not what appears to be most prominent.

i know chinese restaurant owners are crying in our area

some say their business are down 30-35% compare to 2 yrs ago. steak houses like Morton's and Ruth's Chris are also very slow in our area.

 

[FrekeChild]

As a student who lives on less than $300 dollars a month, plus whatever I can pull out of savings (which is not a lot) the economy has hit me hard. I drive a car that only holds 12 gallons of gas, but it''s high performance, so I have to buy premium. What used to cost me $20 is costing me $50 to fill up. While $30 doesn''t seem like a heck of a lot, when it''s 10% of your monthly living costs, it''s a bit of a punch to the stomach. Because of increased gas prices as well as food prices, BF and I have to choose between gas and food for the most part. Luckily, we live a few blocks from a Whole Foods, a mile from a regular grocery store, 1.5 miles from campus, 1 mile from the campus shuttle pickup, and two miles from BF''s main place of work. The only thing that isn''t walking distance is Target/Walmart, so we''ve narrowed those visits down to 1-2 times a month-and we combine them with visits to my parent''s house and his sister''s house. So far it hasn''t been too bad, but it''s going to get a lot worse before it gets better. Especially once my savings runs out.

BTW the mayor has been running tons of bicycle ads. You know, the "drivers, beware of bicyclists, we all want to be safe." type. Our university is going to have to double the bike racks, because they were already overflowing as it was. And from what I understand, the scooter/moped store sales have been sky-rocketing.

Also, I believe I saw on the news the other day that milk is costing (maybe it was organic?) almost $10 for a gallon in Hawaii. Not to mention a $4/$5 loaf of bread.

These are scary scary times.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 6/25/2008 5:17:39 PM
Author: tradergirl

I work for myself as an independent equity and derivatives trader so I am well aware of all this. I have done very well the past two years betting against this RE and equity market and a couple of my best shorts have been Blackstone and Fortress (FIG). Yes, all the principals got phat taking those companies public but it has been at the expense of the economy in general, has cost job losses, etc. I''m sure none of them spend a moment worrying about any of that. It is not over either; in fact, the worst is yet to come.

very good!

i shorted the energy market (DUG) when oil was trading at $108 per barrel

 

[Madam Bijoux]

Retail businesses and some restaurants are hurting in center city Philadelphia. I just heard that a popular restaurant named Brasserie Perrier is closing (probably because the chef opened a new restaurant in a new building, but who really knows?). I also heard a rumor that the jewelry store where I got my Royal Asscher might be going out of business - they''ve been in business since 1936. On the other hand, I went to New York yesterday to see ''South Pacific'', and the show was sold out. All of the stores I went into were doing great business.