After being SO careful...

[Matata]

Are you saying that the outcomes of this pandemic and the response to it can only be considered against previous pandemics and the responses to them?

Or that the outcomes of this pandemic and the responses to it can only be compared with themselves, such as in terms of country vs country?

Yes to both. It's called the scientific method

1. Make an observation.
2. Ask a question.
3. Form a hypothesis, or testable explanation.
4. Make a prediction based on the hypothesis.
5. Test the prediction.
6. Iterate: use the results to make new hypotheses or predictions.

You mentioned traffic deaths and response to them earlier in the context (unless I missed your point) of trying to understand acceptability of those deaths in relation to covid. You also asked about acceptable deaths due to flu. There's no comparison as the factors contributing to traffic deaths and deaths from covid/flu aren't comparable. The flu is currently not an epidemic. If you want to correlate the history of response and actions to a particular flu when it was a pandemic to what's happening to covid then you're on the correct path. For that matter, comparing history of response and acceptance of death to any pandemic could be examined through scientific method but comparing that to traffic deaths is not scientifically supportable.

Attitudes vary among societies/cultures/states/countries so if you want accurate comparisons you have to use the scientific method which would include factors that vary among/between societies/cultures/states/countries.

 

[MaisOuiMadame]

Sorry you took this as an offense. Maybe a language problem on my part. I needed to look at the numbers more in depth and the daily mail opinion piece I needed to fact check. Wasn't implying you doctored any numbers.

Thank you for your confidence in my directly quoted figures from linked sources



[/QUOTE




QUOTE="OoohShiny, post: 4855763, member: 77124"]

I I entirely accept that we are squidgy bags of meat that tend to survive through a combination of luck, skill and judgement.

Any other organism on this planet (including viruses) are in a similar situation - we came into existence while being unaware of doing so, and from that point we are all doing our best to survive.

Sometimes that luck runs out, and if 6 seemingly healthy people in the 40-44 age band in a country of 65,000,000 are unlucky enough to catch a new virus and not survive it, and it is being asserted that that figure is unacceptable, I'm not sure what level of risk is acceptable.

Are we saying that that figure should be zero for all age bands?

If so, is that a realistic proposition, in terms of both the realities of life and the mitigation measures that might be required to achieve that aim?

That you personally accept to catch COVID and die is your choice. Accepting to actively infect others is different. Even if you play the devil's advocate again and say you do, because the chances of the person to survive are sufficiently high in your opinion (if I've interpreted your post correctly), you'll have to accept that the consensus in this society is different:

Your right to chose ends where you harm someone else. So it's the law to wear a mask and stay in now.

I absolutely do see the economic problems that this entails and the psychological and social problems for extremely isolated people who actually do not see anyone at all.

But just wanting to have the exact same lifestyle and insisting that staying mostly at home for a couple of months (one can still go for walks in the UK, right?) is oppression strikes me as odd.

 

[Ella]

Please take theories about whether COVID is serious elsewhere. It is serious for many people, and has killed more than 80x the number of people killed on 9/11 in the US as of today. It is a public health crisis. It should not be partisan, nor should its seriousness be debated.

Many people on the forum, myself included, have had family members die or become seriously ill because of COVID. This is not the place to fight about it, especially on someone's personal thread about their experiences.

Aprilbaby, sending the best to your family and we hope you are all feeling better soon.

 

[LLJsmom]

@AprilBaby I am so very very happy for you and your family. I hope you son will heal well and quickly, and that you all can stay safe. So happy that your DIL is negative. Thank you for keeping us updated.

 

[telephone89]

Please take theories about whether COVID is serious elsewhere. It is serious for many people, and has killed more than 80x the number of people killed on 9/11 in the US as of today. It is a public health crisis. It should not be partisan, nor should its seriousness be debated.

Many people on the forum, myself included, have had family members die or become seriously ill because of COVID. This is not the place to fight about it, especially on someone's personal thread about their experiences.

Aprilbaby, sending the best to your family and we hope you are all feeling better soon.

Thank you Ella.
I appreciate you trying to dispel the #fakenews , #fakescience , and frankly downright #ignorance that appeared during this thread. This is a very serious disease, and conspiracy theories and garbage science is NOT appropriate. #fakenewscan****off

 

[Daisys and Diamonds]

Good health to you and your family @AprilBaby
Is son #3 in the clear now or is he still contagious ?

To people who have lost loved ones and freinds and colleges im so so sad for you and them
this is just awful

 

[123ducklings]

Pregnant DIL is negative!

Big relief! I hope you all continue to stay safe and healthy and that your son’s case stays mild and resolves quickly. Thank you for keeping us posted!

 

[minousbijoux]

@AprilBaby, add me to the list of those so relieved to hear the tests were negative. I hope you are getting just how loved you are by the PS community by all us well wishers, prayer providers, and dust givers. Here's to hoping the rest of your family gets by with no complications.

 

[LLJsmom]

Please take theories about whether COVID is serious elsewhere. It is serious for many people, and has killed more than 80x the number of people killed on 9/11 in the US as of today. It is a public health crisis. It should not be partisan, nor should its seriousness be debated.

Many people on the forum, myself included, have had family members die or become seriously ill because of COVID. This is not the place to fight about it, especially on someone's personal thread about their experiences.

Aprilbaby, sending the best to your family and we hope you are all feeling better soon.

Thank you @Ella . I could hug you... but I can't...

 

[Calliecake]

Thank you @Ella . I could hug you... but I can't...

+1. Thank You Ella!

 

[AprilBaby]

Good health to you and your family @AprilBaby
Is son #3 in the clear now or is he still contagious ?

To people who have lost loved ones and freinds and colleges im so so sad for you and them
this is just awful

From what I understand he is free to go out at day 10 after his positive test. I am not free to go out till day 14 after contact if I have no symptoms. If on day 14 I get any symptoms I test again and get another 14 days. Day 10 for him is Friday. Meanwhile me, who has no symptoms and tested neg , am in limbo till next Monday.

 

[LLJsmom]

From what I understand he is free to go out at day 10 after his positive test. I am not free to go out till day 14 after contact if I have no symptoms. If on day 14 I get any symptoms I test again and get another 14 days. Day 10 for him is Friday. Meanwhile me, who has no symptoms and tested neg , am in limbo till next Monday.

Monday will come soon! Have you seen Queen's Gambit yet, on Netflix? It's great fun and well acted. I am reading Stoned, PS Book Club. A teen comedy, but Easy A is also available on Netflix. Emma Stone. It's funny, and worth a rewatch if you like.

 

[dk168]

@AprilBaby great news re: negative test results!

DK

 

[MaisOuiMadame]

From what I understand he is free to go out at day 10 after his positive test. I am not free to go out till day 14 after contact if I have no symptoms. If on day 14 I get any symptoms I test again and get another 14 days. Day 10 for him is Friday. Meanwhile me, who has no symptoms and tested neg , am in limbo till next Monday.

Oh no, I'm sorry @AprilBaby ... How annoying!!

Can you "buy" yourself out with a second test?

 

[Calliecake]

@AprilBaby , Did you hear Chicago is issuing a Stay At Home advisory effective Monday? Chicagoans are only to leave their home for essential needs, including work and school.

 

[diamondseeker2006]

Certainly COVID is very serious and life threatening for some. However, in the US, while cases are seeing an increase in many places, the great news is the death rate has declined a LOT since April and has not approached the same level as it was. Fortunately they have learned some things about treatment since then, and also it is possible the virus has weakened some. All I see on news headlines are the increase in cases, but not the fact that the death rate has decreased. This is the current data from the CDC as of today (cases in the first image, deaths in the second).






While I am very fortunate to live where there is a low number of cases, I personally only have one friend who recently had it (no one else in her immediate family got it), and her 80 year old mother had it (did NOT get it from the daughter) and she actually had a more rapid recovery than the daughter. Neither were hospitalized and were both fine in less than 2 weeks. Friend went back to work as soon as she was in the clear. So there are good outcomes, too. I know the winter will be difficult, but I do have hope that this virus will decline next year. I think one can be realistic when looking at the data and also be hopeful.

 

[OboeGal]

Certainly COVID is very serious and life threatening for some. However, in the US, while cases are seeing an increase in many places, the great news is the death rate has declined a LOT since April and has not approached the same level as it was. Fortunately they have learned some things about treatment since then, and also it is possible the virus has weakened some. All I see on news headlines are the increase in cases, but not the fact that the death rate has decreased. This is the current data from the CDC as of today (cases in the first image, deaths in the second).






While I am very fortunate to live where there is a low number of cases, I personally only have one friend who recently had it (no one else in her immediate family got it), and her 80 year old mother had it (did NOT get it from the daughter) and she actually had a more rapid recovery than the daughter. Neither were hospitalized and were both fine in less than 2 weeks. Friend went back to work as soon as she was in the clear. So there are good outcomes, too. I know the winter will be difficult, but I do have hope that this virus will decline next year. I think one can be realistic when looking at the data and also be hopeful.

You are correct that the death rate has declined, due mainly to improvements in the supportive care for hospitalized patients as medical providers have learned more over the course of the last 8 months. However - those gains are erased once hospitals are no longer able to provide standard of care.

Those gains require experienced critical-care doctors making decisions based on the most up-to-date protocols.
They require hospitals having the facility space to keep each patient isolated, for both the safety of those working in the hospitals and the safety of patients, so that they are not stressing one another's immune system by re-exposing one another repeatedly to the virus.
They require having more than one nurse and patient care aide available at a time to care for each COVID patient optimally.
They require caregivers to be rested enough to not make mistakes constantly.
They require adequate supplies of PPE to keep medical personnel healthy or, at worst, infected but asymptomatic and still able to work and focus.

We don't have that in many, many areas of the country right now - and because that is the case throughout so much of the country, one area can't transfer patients to another area or call on extra personnel reinforcements from another area for help, like NYC was able to in the spring, or Texas, Arizona, and Florida were over the summer. So - we WILL watch the death rate go UP. We will also watch the death rate for other emergencies and critical-care situations that might otherwise have been survivable - heart attacks, strokes, accidental injuries, other serious infections - go UP.