To all the Aussies - AUD predicted to go even higher

[D2B]

Yeahhh,

The AUD is just getting stronger and stronger, predictions are for 1.10 to the USD - fantastic for us looking to buy diamonds now!!!!! the only dilema is how long to wait before pulling the trigger.

Keeping a close eye on the dollar

Anyone else just about to purchase diamonds and keeping an eye on how things develo?

db

 

[softly softly]

Might be good for imports, but not so much for exports, particularly commodities which is what drives our supposedly 'strong' economy. Sounds like the Reserve Bank talking up interest rate rises to me.

Are these the same economists who earlier this year were predicting our dollar to crash to under 50c against the American?

 

[hihowareyou]

don''t tell me that, i just bought

i think now is a great time to buy as an aussie as the dollar is doing well and online prices were already cheaper anyway. who knows what may happen in the next week, month, year that might turn the dollar around completely. it may get better or it may get worse.

if it does get to 1.10 i''ll probably make a dash for a US holiday

 

[bleeblue]

Unfortunally this also means that the gold price is getting higher. The exchange rate of AUD tends to move with the gold price.

 

[setell]

I don't know about the AUD but for the CDN loonie we're doing well cause the USD is taking a bit hit. Even with the strong financials the big firms are reporting the US economy isn't recovering that well. Sorta like we're doing good but they are either doing worse or not improving. So good for us non-american's and bad for them if they buy out of country or go on vacations. I thought I read that AUS raised interest rates being the first country to make such a move. Sort of put the pressure on the Bank of Canada to make some sort of decision but I doubt our rates will rise as they want to push the loonie lower then the USD so that exports won't be hurt that badly with a high dollar. I don't think our central bank can do much to push the loonie lower though as the Federal Reserve seem to be working 24/7 printing cash to erode the current value of the USD (I will assume similar situation in AUS). I am going to assume our loonie will reach parity again by the end of this year and probably be more then 1:1 against the USD by Q1 next year unless the US economy makes a miraculous recovery to make me eat my words/predictions!

Overall, time to go shopping ladies as a strong dollar CDN/AUD means more goodies we can buy!!! I wished I waited or held off buying my diamond to save a few more hundred dollars with a higher dollar

Oh well, at least I got to admire my bling earlier.

 

[wenwen1111]

3 weeks ago I bought my ring. Now I look at the exchange rate and did some calculations, If I would only wait for 3 weeks (who could when it''s about diamonds) I would have saved about AUD$450. It''s unbelievable.

 

[arjunajane]

Exactly D2B - the issue is when to bite though!

I wish I had held off a couple weeks from paying for my sapphire - that would've saved a couple hundred.

But on the other hand, I have just gone ahead and put a 50% deposit on a setting today, as I figure 92c on the dollar is good enough.

I can't believe they reckon it will go as high as 1.10 - I think there will be a mass influx of Aussie tourists then!


The caveat is when purchasing though; does anyone know how to get around the stingy rates that PayPal gives you?!
Even though the official rate is almost 93cents today, paypal only gave me 89cents - which can end up meaning a couple hundred dollars difference. It really doesn't seem fair..

I tried once using the exchange rate from my Mastercard, but that ended up even worse..

Any savvy Aussie or other International shoppers have a better idea how to beat Paypal? Money order maybe? *shrugs*....I'd love to know, lol!

 

[wenwen1111]

International money transfer is your best bet..... you get the actual exchange rate. You pay a processing fee ($22 at commonwealth netbank) and most probably a $25 transfer fee through an intermediary bank. But that''s less than 50 bux in total. Pretty good when you are sending over big amounts of money

 

[hihowareyou]

we used travelex on our diamond expecting to get burned with a bad rate and extra fees (since we did on our last overseas holiday) but it was the easiest option and were prepared to take it on the chin. it turned out they gave us a better exchange rate than we expected (better than we thought the rate was on the day) and the fees were not excessive at all so it worked out fine.

i''ve always found the exchange rate on my visa card to be decent. there is a 1.something% charge for International conversion but it isn''t too bad. i''ve never ordered over $1000 on it from overseas though so can see how with very large sums how the that % could start to hurt.

 

[justginger]

Ozforex.com is the BEST!!

Your first two transactions are fee-free -- and every transaction after that is $15. And the exchange rate is awesome -- 2% higher than BankWest would give me as a wire rate! I bought my diamond when it was at 80 cents/dollar, paid most of the setting at 87 cents/dollar, and still have to pay the melee costs to Leon at whatever the exchange rate will be in the next couple of weeks.

We''ve had the BEST luck with USD/AUD exchange. We went to the States a year ago July, got 97 cents/dollar. Came home in August, waited til Sept and exchanged the $1500 USD we had left over -- at 65 cents/dollar (tidy profit of 32% in 2 months!). My parents came down to Perth for Christmas last year and got around 67 cents/dollar, so very good for them. Now I''m back over there next week til the beginning of Nov and am so thrilled with the way things are going.

Am just checking Ozforex daily to see when I should transfer over my spending money. If it drops below 90 cents, I''ll go ahead and do it -- if not, I might even handle it all online from when I''m actually there!

 

[stone-cold11]

WoW, ginger, nice timing.

 

[JogiaDiamonds]

Any savvy Aussie or other International shoppers have a better idea how to beat Paypal? Money order maybe? *shrugs*....I''d love to know, lol!

Wizard Clear Advantage.

 

[arjunajane]

Date: 10/16/2009 8:13:46 AM
Author: JogiaDiamonds

Any savvy Aussie or other International shoppers have a better idea how to beat Paypal? Money order maybe? *shrugs*....I'd love to know, lol!

Wizard Clear Advantage.

Hi Nikhil,

Thanks for the suggestion. Can you please elaborate on why you suggest this? I see it is a mastercard, indeed with a competitive interest rate, no annual fee etc.

But is there something in particular to do with international transactions that would help my situation?

As far as I can tell, Mastercard sets their rates for the day, regardless of your bank - I have asked Bankwest before what rate I would get if I used my CC, and they said you'd have to ask Mastercard..

can anyone tell me is that incorrect or no?

 

[arjunajane]

Date: 10/16/2009 7:42:22 AM
Author: justginger
Ozforex.com is the BEST!!

Your first two transactions are fee-free -- and every transaction after that is $15. And the exchange rate is awesome -- 2% higher than BankWest would give me as a wire rate! I bought my diamond when it was at 80 cents/dollar, paid most of the setting at 87 cents/dollar, and still have to pay the melee costs to Leon at whatever the exchange rate will be in the next couple of weeks.

Thankyou JG for the suggestion of Ozforex - I have come across this site before, but never took the time to sign up.

I''ve just done so now - and the rate they are offering is 1cent better than Paypal, he he...still better I guess!

I likely won''t use them for this transaction, but it should come in handy for the future.
Thanks again, and kudos to you on all the great timing

 

[arjunajane]

Date: 10/16/2009 1:27:21 AM
Author: wenwen1111
International money transfer is your best bet..... you get the actual exchange rate. You pay a processing fee ($22 at commonwealth netbank) and most probably a $25 transfer fee through an intermediary bank. But that''s less than 50 bux in total. Pretty good when you are sending over big amounts of money

Hi wenwen, thanks for your input.
I''ve done a ton of wires in the past - I found the rate you get varies widely between banks, but I found my bank to be fair.
However, the fees for me were higher than that if I recall..usually around $50..

 

[justginger]

I''ve found Ozforex to move around a lot -- for example, the rate has dropped by .65% since I last checked (same time as I posted my recommendation). There have been times that it''s been nearly spot on with the official rate though; guess their forecasters are hedging their bets or something.

Maybe it''ll start going down now that we''re all speculating how high it''s gonna go! I remember last year people were squealing about it hitting a dollar to dollar rate - and then it dropped immediately.

I just love that you get your first two transactions for free!!

 

[arjunajane]

Date: 10/16/2009 9:41:27 AM
Author: justginger
I''ve found Ozforex to move around a lot -- for example, the rate has dropped by .65% since I last checked (same time as I posted my recommendation). There have been times that it''s been nearly spot on with the official rate though; guess their forecasters are hedging their bets or something.


Maybe it''ll start going down now that we''re all speculating how high it''s gonna go! I remember last year people were squealing about it hitting a dollar to dollar rate - and then it dropped immediately.


I just love that you get your first two transactions for free!!

no doubt, it''s a great service and I will use it again.
Thanks for the tip - I will keep an eye on them. So you basically "lock in" that rate when you agree to do a transfer, correct?

Yes, I felt very fortunate to be buying at the time when it was up around 95c. After having rates like that, it''s sooo difficult when it plummets back to the 70-80c realm, lol..

 

[justginger]

Yes, AJ, it locks in at the current rate when you submit.

They have a partner company (can''t remember what it is now!), but there''s a delay with them - whenever the transaction is actually processed determines the rate you get. I think the fees were a bit cheaper, but I was more concerned about lockable rates. No sense waiting to maximize your exchange, only to find out that it wasn''t processed until 2 days later and the rate had dropped by 2%.

 

[MishB]

Yep, a little over a year ago ''they'' were all predicting parity, then it crashed through the floor.

phooey.

 

[arjunajane]

Date: 10/17/2009 4:46:55 AM
Author: justginger
Yes, AJ, it locks in at the current rate when you submit.

They have a partner company (can''t remember what it is now!), but there''s a delay with them - whenever the transaction is actually processed determines the rate you get. I think the fees were a bit cheaper, but I was more concerned about lockable rates. No sense waiting to maximize your exchange, only to find out that it wasn''t processed until 2 days later and the rate had dropped by 2%.

Thanks JG for the info.
Ya, locked rate is better for sure.

 

[arjunajane]

Date: 10/17/2009 8:05:16 AM
Author: MishB
Yep, a little over a year ago 'they' were all predicting parity, then it crashed through the floor.


phooey.

Mish - ya, that one hurt, lol!

I'm a bit skeptical too, although it's nice to dream of! Honestly, if I had to guess I think it will max out about where it is..maybe ~95c tops. Which is really pretty fantastic anyways!
It's nice to see it staying on the rise pretty much consistently.



On a side note, BGD reckons they are getting an influx of stones for custom work, from Aussies atm due in large part to this factor - not surprised.!

 

[Phoenix]

I predict that the Aussie will go up to around parity and then go back down. The Australian fundamentals do not support this current strength and the recent rapid rise is primarily due to carry-trades. The stronger Aussie is also bad for Australian exports. I doubt if the Reserve Bank will raise interest rate too aggressively in the coming months.

Just my 0.02.

 

[arjunajane]

Date: 10/18/2009 1:03:02 AM
Author: Phoenix
I predict that the Aussie will go up to around parity and then go back down. The Australian fundamentals do not support this current strength and the recent rapid rise is primarily due to carry-trades. The stronger Aussie is also bad for Australian exports. I doubt if the Reserve Bank will raise interest rate too aggressively in the coming months.


Just my 0.02.

Cheers Phoenix for your 2c !
If you had to take a stab - what kind of time frame would you predict for parity?

 

[Phoenix]

Date: 10/18/2009 2:09:11 AM
Author: arjunajane

Date: 10/18/2009 1:03:02 AM
Author: Phoenix
I predict that the Aussie will go up to around parity and then go back down. The Australian fundamentals do not support this current strength and the recent rapid rise is primarily due to carry-trades. The stronger Aussie is also bad for Australian exports. I doubt if the Reserve Bank will raise interest rate too aggressively in the coming months.


Just my 0.02.

Cheers Phoenix for your 2c !
If you had to take a stab - what kind of time frame would you predict for parity?

I''m no currency expert, but my wild guess is that it''ll go closer to parity within six months, maybe even sooner. At least I hope that it will. Am planning to buy some put options on the Aussie.

 

[arjunajane]

Date: 10/18/2009 2:32:03 AM
Author: Phoenix

Date: 10/18/2009 2:09:11 AM

Author: arjunajane

Date: 10/18/2009 1:03:02 AM

Author: Phoenix

I predict that the Aussie will go up to around parity and then go back down. The Australian fundamentals do not support this current strength and the recent rapid rise is primarily due to carry-trades. The stronger Aussie is also bad for Australian exports. I doubt if the Reserve Bank will raise interest rate too aggressively in the coming months.



Just my 0.02.

Cheers Phoenix for your 2c !

If you had to take a stab - what kind of time frame would you predict for parity?

I''m no currency expert, but my wild guess is that it''ll go closer to parity within six months, maybe even sooner. At least I hope that it will. Am planning to buy some put options on the Aussie.

Thanks Phoenix for your thoughts.

Looks like I''m planning on more gems/jewellery projects then! he he..(just j/k - kind of).

I know nothing on investing/options etc, but my father and a number of my friends do - I might get some advice from them, and fore-go one jewellery project instead for once.
Do something a lil wiser.

 

[Phoenix]

Date: 10/18/2009 3:27:55 AM
Author: arjunajane

Date: 10/18/2009 2:32:03 AM
Author: Phoenix

Date: 10/18/2009 2:09:11 AM

Author: arjunajane

Date: 10/18/2009 1:03:02 AM

Author: Phoenix

I predict that the Aussie will go up to around parity and then go back down. The Australian fundamentals do not support this current strength and the recent rapid rise is primarily due to carry-trades. The stronger Aussie is also bad for Australian exports. I doubt if the Reserve Bank will raise interest rate too aggressively in the coming months.



Just my 0.02.

Cheers Phoenix for your 2c !

If you had to take a stab - what kind of time frame would you predict for parity?

I'm no currency expert, but my wild guess is that it'll go closer to parity within six months, maybe even sooner. At least I hope that it will. Am planning to buy some put options on the Aussie.

Thanks Phoenix for your thoughts.

Looks like I'm planning on more gems/jewellery projects then! he he..(just j/k - kind of).

I know nothing on investing/options etc, but my father and a number of my friends do - I might get some advice from them, and fore-go one jewellery project instead for once.
Do something a lil wiser.

I def think that's wise. *I* know only too well the call of bling!

But you have to look after yourself, financially speaking and make good investment decisions. The way I look at it is this: money invested wisely now now will yield you good profit and more money for later and possibly bigger bling purchases!

and you get to keep the (rest of the) profit for your future (retirement) purchases.

Just to be clear, I'm not looking to buy puts at this level yet. I think puts at 95 cents - $1 are good. After six months, possibly a year, the US dollar will start to recover I reckon and the Aussie wil go down, that's when you take profit (puts will give you the option but not the obligation to sell the Aussie at a certain level, so if the Aussie goes down, you sell at that level and profit from the price difference. But of course, if my prediction turned out to be wrong, I'd lose the money - but just that spent to purchase the puts, no more).

You can also do the same thing with straight forward exchange if you're not familiar with options. But I personally wouldn't buy the Aussie dollar outright at the moment, it's already very high. If you want to, you can buy a small amount, I wouldn't buy too much. But if you're in Australia and are earning in Aussie at the moment (like you are, arjunajane), then you're laughing, but I would def try and sell the Aussie when it goes up to parity or near parity. It may go up even higher than 1USD but you (ie. one) cannot get too greedy; it's good to just take some profit. You can never hit the top.

I previously predicted correctly that the Aussie would go up against the greenback when it was 90-92 cents. The problem was I couldn't find anyone to buy call options from!

I predicted the same for the Euro too. Back a few years ago, we made a very handsome profit buying the pound outright (not options) when it was weak and then sold it when it went up to almost 2USD. But this was before we bought our home, we don't have anywhere near that kind of cash now, thus the options instead.

 

[jewellery4fun]

You could try using the pay anyone, or order a draft (cheque), on on-line banking. The draw back is, it takes about 3-6 business days to process, but it is cheaper than paypal.

Hope this helps

 

[arjunajane]

Date: 10/18/2009 7:19:38 AM
Author: diamond girl 63
You could try using the pay anyone, or order a draft (cheque), on on-line banking. The draw back is, it takes about 3-6 business days to process, but it is cheaper than paypal.


Hope this helps

Thanks diamond girl for your thoughts -
but we also have to consider what payment methods the vendor accepts and their practices, kwim?..

As far as I can tell, whether its "pay anyone" or a Paypal invoice, Paypal will give you exact same rate.

Online banking I don''t think will work as my bank will only let me send money to a Australian Acct #. I imagine this would be the same for most banks?

And yes, personally I find dealing with cheques and the time delays frustrating.
It actually takes a lot longer than the standard 5 or 6 days if it''s different currencies (in my experience) - would you believe earlier this year I had a cheque in USD that I deposited - it took 30 working days to clear! So it was about 40 days before I got my money - crazy!

I''m not sure how it would be on the US side of things, but imagine similar delays could be encountered..(although I doubt that long!)..

It does seem still like bank wire, Paypal or Ozforex are the best options. I am going to look into a money order in the next couple days and see what rates they offer that way..

Cheers for your input though, I hope you don''t mind I''m just kinda thinking out loud on this one

 

[arjunajane]

Date: 10/18/2009 5:13:59 AM
Author: Phoenix

I def think that''s wise. *I* know only too well the call of bling!

But you have to look after yourself, financially speaking and make good investment decisions. The way I look at it is this: money invested wisely now now will yield you good profit and more money for later and possibly bigger bling purchases!

and you get to keep the (rest of the) profit for your future (retirement) purchases.


Just to be clear, I''m not looking to buy puts at this level yet. I think puts at 95 cents - $1 are good. After six months, possibly a year, the US dollar will start to recover I reckon and the Aussie wil go down, that''s when you take profit (puts will give you the option but not the obligation to sell the Aussie at a certain level, so if the Aussie goes down, you sell at that level and profit from the price difference. But of course, if my prediction turned out to be wrong, I''d lose the money - but just that spent to purchase the puts, no more).


You can also do the same thing with straight forward exchange if you''re not familiar with options. But I personally wouldn''t buy the Aussie dollar outright at the moment, it''s already very high. If you want to, you can buy a small amount, I wouldn''t buy too much. But if you''re in Australia and are earning in Aussie at the moment (like you are, arjunajane), then you''re laughing, but I would def try and sell the Aussie when it goes up to parity or near parity. It may go up even higher than 1USD but you (ie. one) cannot get too greedy; it''s good to just take some profit. You can never hit the top.


I previously predicted correctly that the Aussie would go up against the greenback when it was 90-92 cents. The problem was I couldn''t find anyone to buy call options from!

I predicted the same for the Euro too. Back a few years ago, we made a very handsome profit buying the pound outright (not options) when it was weak and then sold it when it went up to almost 2USD. But this was before we bought our home, we don''t have anywhere near that kind of cash now, thus the options instead.

Phoenix, I''ve found this post/discussion very interesting/educational and so thank you for indulging me and telling me some of the basics of your plans/strategies.
(I must admit, I did have to look up the definition of how purchasing puts contracts works, lol)

But I think I''m starting to understand.

So, I''ll likely embarrass myself, but let me try to get this straight -you can purchase a put contract on both options/stocks or on straight currency (ie. the AUD$)
And than you have a specified amount of time in which to decide to sell or not when (hopefully) the underlying asset declines in value ? (but you are not obligated to sell?.)

Is that kinda the basics? Please excuse if I''m not using the correct terminology, lol..

I never thought I''d say this, but I''m finding this stuff pretty interesting.
My dad has played the market my whole life - and so I have seen the highs and terrible lows that can come with that.
I think that has always made me very wary of this type of investment, preferring the safety of property..

Admittedly, I don''t exactly have a lot of spare investment money around atm (having gone back to study and all), but it has def. made me think about some of the possibilities instead of spending my spare cash on new jewellery projects every time

 

[jewellery4fun]

I bank with the ANZ & they provide the option of registering for international banking on-line, so that you can use this for pay anyone. Don''t know if your bank has something similar. Also I recently checked all options for an international purchase & found the draft cheaper than paypal, but ended up going with paypal for the convenience factor.

Good luck