The Best Way To Retake The House In 2018

[AGBF]

Some critics of the massive popular uprising against Donald Trump and the energized left wing have argued that following a leftist strategy will hurt the Democrats because it will drive centrist voters who supported Trump towards him. Other people, however, have advised that it is better to let the old, former Democratic base, go and look to the people that were starting to support Secretary Clinton in the last election. Those of us who are trying to get Trump's agenda shut down, are pretty interested in what to do next. We are not just complaining here on Pricescope. This article is about one group who may be available to support the Democrats in the 2018 Congressional elections.

"Democrats’ Best Bet to Retake the House? Follow the Sun" (excerpt below)

"There has been no shortage of reports that President Trump is still very popular in the bars and diners of the old industrial towns that decided the 2016 presidential election.

But if you want to meet the voters who will decide the biggest political story of the 2018 congressional elections, you might have to fly right over the blue-collar workers of Youngstown, Ohio, and go talk to the real housewives of Orange County, Calif.

Yes, it’s early. But if we’re already breathlessly checking in on Altoona, Pa., then add the O.C. to the mix.

Orange County was the heart of Sun Belt conservatism and one of the most reliably Republican bastions of the 20th century. It voted Republican in every presidential election from 1936 until 2016, when it voted for Hillary Clinton by a nine-point margin.

It’s hard to think of a place that was less relevant to Mr. Trump’s fortunes in 2016. Mrs. Clinton’s success in Orange County, and in well-educated and Hispanic areas elsewhere in the Sun Belt, helped her win the popular vote — though there was no payoff in the Electoral College. But it’s districts like these that will decide whether the Democrats can make a serious run at control of the House.

There is no guarantee that the Democrats can put the House in play, even if Mr. Trump’s approval ratings remain as low as they are now or slip further. The Republicans have so many safe seats that they could even survive a so-called wave election like the ones that swept Democrats to power in 2006 and out of power in 2010. The Democrats need 24 seats to retake the House.

But whether the Democrats can do it will come down to places like Orange County, which is more populous than Iowa. Four congressional districts that have at least some territory in the county still have Republican representatives, and all four were carried by Mrs. Clinton."

Link...https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/22/upshot/democrats-best-bet-for-house-control-is-following-the-sun.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

AGBF

 

[AGBF]

Don't mind me, but I'm replying to myself since no one else appears interested.

From "The New York Times" today.

"Weakened Democrats Bow to Voters, Opting for Total War on Trump"

"WASHINGTON — Reduced to their weakest state in a generation, Democratic Party leaders will gather in two cities this weekend to plot strategy and select a new national chairman with the daunting task of rebuilding the party’s depleted organization. But senior Democratic officials concede that the blueprint has already been chosen for them — by an incensed army of liberals demanding no less than total war against President Trump.

Immediately after the November election, Democrats were divided over how to handle Mr. Trump, with one camp favoring all-out confrontation and another backing a seemingly less risky approach of coaxing him to the center with offers of compromise.

Now, spurred by explosive protests and a torrent of angry phone calls and emails from constituents — and outraged themselves by Mr. Trump’s swift moves to enact a hard-line agenda — Democrats have all but cast aside any notion of conciliation with the White House. Instead, they are mimicking the Republican approach of the last eight years — the “party of no” — and wagering that brash obstruction will pay similar dividends.

...​

'They want change to happen overnight,' Mr. Stoney said of the newly energized activists.

Nowhere is it more clear, however, that the protesters are leading the politicians than on Capitol Hill.

Senate Democratic leaders had hoped to capitalize on Mr. Trump’s nomination of Tom Price as health secretary by assailing Republicans for wanting to trim Medicare, an issue Democrats aim to run on in 2018. But Mr. Price was vastly overshadowed by the nomination of Ms. DeVos, who galvanized the new activists like no other cabinet pick.

'Part of what I think the Bernie campaign taught us, even the Trump campaign taught us, and now the resistance is teaching us, is just ditch the consultants and consult with your conscience and constituents first,' said Senator Brian Schatz of Hawaii, warning his fellow Democrats that 'it’s a fool’s errand to try to plan this out like it’s a traditional political operation.'

Mr. Merkley boasted that 'we’re doing things in the Senate that are less conventional,' efforts he said were aimed at conveying to anti-Trump voters that 'hey, we’re here and we’re fighting.'

Those efforts have included tactics like walking out on nomination hearings and opposing even less controversial cabinet appointments, such as that of Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, the wife of the Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell.

The fear factor is real, said Adam Jentleson, a former Senate Democratic aide. Images of angry constituents jeering Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, a reliable liberal from Rhode Island, at a town hall-style meeting in late January for supporting the selection of Mike Pompeo as C.I.A. director quickly circulated among other Democratic senators, he said.

'It was eye-opening,' Mr. Jentleson said, 'because it made clear that the base is not going to let them off the hook.'”



Link...https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/23/us/democrats-dnc-chairman-trump-keith-ellison-tom-perez.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

 

[the_mother_thing]

Some critics of the massive popular uprising against Donald Trump and the energized left wing have argued that following a leftist strategy will hurt the Democrats because it will drive centrist voters who supported Trump towards him. Other people, however, have advised that it is better to let the old, former Democratic base, go and look to the people that were starting to support Secretary Clinton in the last election.

AGBF

Good strategy; it worked soooo well in this election.



Just wanted to let you know you weren't talking to yourself; someone was reading.

 

[AGBF]

Just wanted to let you know you weren't talking to yourself; someone was reading.

Thanks, friend.

Deb

 

[redwood66]

I am reading too but will keep my comments to myself on what is the best path for the Democratic party.

 

[momhappy]

Same here

 

[AGBF]

Well, heck, I seem to be hanging around with a whole new crowd!

By the way, I made a new recipe today. I got it on the internet, so it may not be new to you all. It's a recipe for Banana Sour Cream Bread. It took me a couple of days after I found the recipe to make it because I had to shop for it. (I didn't have all the ingredients in the house.) Everyone loved it. I made two loaves and one disappeared between 5:30 and now (11:00). I just wish I wasn't off carbs so I could taste it!

Deb

 

[distracts]

Well I think the first thing to do is to set expectations appropriately. It's extremely unlikely we'll be able to get a majority in the House in 2018 just based on the seats available. Now, if Republicans really do repeal Obamacare and repeal takes effect before the election, or if they continue with plans to decrease Social Security or privatize Medicare, that changes things. But right now? No, I'd expect things to stay roughly the same or for there to be very modest Democratic gains.

However, you're not going to win seats formerly in Republican territory, in states that voted for Trump, by running far-left liberals. I'm not sure why people keep thinking this. You're going to win them by running "blue dog" Dems who don't always vote with the greater party and who have strong and traditional ties to their communities.

However I don't necessarily think that should matter to Dems currently in office in safe districts - whose constituents DO want total war on Trump. Six months before the next election that might not be the recommended strategy, but now it is.