do you think the econ is improving?

[lovegem]

As topic, do you think that the econ is getting better? We have seen on the news lately that many indicators pointed to a stabilizing economy. Will you start spending (i.e. get some bling bling)? I personally don''t believe it is getting better. Thus, I am not going to get myself any blings.

 

[Steel]

No I don''t think it is improving.

 

[Tuckins1]

No, but I live in the Detroit area, so with Chrysler''s bankruptcy.... Needless to say it''s bad here.

 

[kittybean]

No, I don''t think it''s improving. No extra bling for me!

 

[HollyS]

If our very bad month here at the dealership is any indication, then NO.

 

[icekid]

no!

 

[beau13]

It will definitely get worse before it gets better!

 

[October2008bride]

No. Most definitely not improving.

 

[Ellen]

I read this yesterday, seemed somewhat encouraging. I realize we have a ways to go, but still, it''s hope on the horizon maybe... Interesting anyway.


http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2009/04/30/forecaster-says-recession-is-almost-over/?iref=topnews

One of America’s most reliable economic forecasters says the current recession – the longest in half a century - will end this year, possibly as early as this summer.

Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), was one of the first to declare that the US was in a recession. Now he’s one of the first to say its ending. ECRI, he says, is the research group in the world that studies business cycle recessions and recoveries for a living, and has a near-perfect record of predicting. They do it by crunching various pieces of data and creating “leading indicators” which show where the economy is headed.

 

[steph72276]

Yep, for us it is....sales at my hubby''s company have been through the roof the last two months after about a year of not doing so well. Still not feeling completely confident, but feel better about things. I think home prices have held pretty steady after a year and a half or so of dropping every month. I can see some good signs where we are (Florida).

 

[luckystar112]

Honestly, I live in Houston (which hasn''t been affected as much as the rest of the country) so my view could be a little skewed, but I''m starting to feel like the economy is nothing but a state of mind. The media puts it out there that the economy sucks, people freak out and stop spending money, businesses end up losing money because no one is shopping, businesses have to lay people off, layoffs are blamed on the bad economy, people stop spending money, businesses end up losing money................

It''s a cycle. I haven''t altered my spending at all because I think people are going to snap out of it soon and things will pick back up again.

But this is from someone who only took basic economics, and I really don''t know anything.

 

[Dancing Fire]

will bottom sometime next yr.

 

[strmrdr]

Date: 5/1/2009 6:59:06 PM
Author: Tuckins1
No, but I live in the Detroit area, so with Chrysler''s bankruptcy.... Needless to say it''s bad here.

ditto in the midwest

 

[DivaDiamond007]

Date: 5/1/2009 6:59:06 PM
Author: Tuckins1
No, but I live in the Detroit area, so with Chrysler's bankruptcy.... Needless to say it's bad here.

I work for a bankruptcy attorney in Toledo, and our office economy will improve with Chrysler's bankruptcy. It will get even better when GM goes under.

Obviously, neither of these things are good for the local economy and Toledo's got it so back that the Mayor has plans to lay off over 100 police officers

Housing prices are still falling in this area and there's not much building going on - residential or commercial. DH and I may benefit from this since we're not homeowners and will be buying/building in the next few years.

We've been careful with our money because our living arrangement allows us to be (we live with his parents). I have a small amount of cc debt that is shrinking by the month and we are also putting a fair amount of money into our house fund, emergency fund and a "fun" fund. We never really spent much money in the first place so we haven't really cut back per se, however, we're much more careful and think things out before dropping a load of cash on clothing, eating out, electronics, or jewelry.

We have a jewelry project on board right now - involving my wedding set - but it's relatively inexpensive and will cover as a gift for our 4th wedding anniversary, Mother's Day and my 27th birthday. DH also wants a Blu Ray player and we're thinking that we'll buy one around Father's Day for his gift. Other than those two things we have no major purchases that will be wanted/needed probably until Christmas.

 

[bebe]

Date: 5/1/2009 8:02:05 PM
Author: luckystar112
Honestly, I live in Houston (which hasn''t been affected as much as the rest of the country) so my view could be a little skewed, but I''m starting to feel like the economy is nothing but a state of mind. The media puts it out there that the economy sucks, people freak out and stop spending money, businesses end up losing money because no one is shopping, businesses have to lay people off, layoffs are blamed on the bad economy, people stop spending money, businesses end up losing money................

It''s a cycle. I haven''t altered my spending at all because I think people are going to snap out of it soon and things will pick back up again.

But this is from someone who only took basic economics, and I really don''t know anything.

I''m in Houston too. I know many people who have lost their jobs here. My husbands company has laid off more employees than they wanted, but business is suffering.
The oil industry is in the tank, so many of our friends have lost their jobs or very scared. I''m seeing more real estate For Sale signs than ever before in my area. I have a friend
who lost her Admin. Assist. position 5 months ago and is still looking.

DD lives in Austin has friends who have lost their jobs in tech, IT, Marketing and Advertising. DS has college friends who lost their job offers.
It''s tough out there. Hiring freezes, forced furloughs and salary cuts and job cuts - it''s all here.

 

[tigian]

Nope, there are still many jobs being lost out here in CA. Unfortunately, it''s going to get worse before it get''s better.

 

[Black Jade]

No; but the Obama cheering section (mainstream news media) is trying hard to convince us that he fixed it already. Well, maybe not fixed it, but improved it a lot.

Which would be impossible for ANYBODY.

Unemployment is still up, credit is still frozen (that is, banks aren''t lending), consumer confidence isn''t good. Houses are so cheap now that some have started to buy, but there a whole bunch of people whose interest rates are supposed to readjust in the fall and that isn''t going to pretty. Also, this thing is worldwide and that has an effect. As, even abroad people can''t afford to buy our products.

the economy is cyclical and was bound to go down somewhat, as it had been booming for a record number of years. But the whole thing was really exacerbated by the tremendous amount of debt people had accumulated. And I fear that it''s going to be a big problem in the future that the govt. is borrowing EVEN MORE MONEY to supposedly help the economy. Yes, I know that that started under Bush with the first stimulus bill and I think he was wrong, and Obama is making it even worse AND trying to pretend that he''s not going to have to seriously tax everybody eventually to pay some of this money back.

 

[monarch64]

I''m with DF, it''s going to get worse and bottom out sometime next year, and then begin to improve. Key thought: it WILL begin to improve! I just don''t see it happening now or in the very near future.

 

[Black Jade]

Oh, I forgot to answer about the blingbling. I haven''t completely stopped buying, but am seriously considering every single purchase in general now, not just jewelry. Hubby still has job, but who knows what will happen. I was never a big shopper, though and there are no special anniversaries or anything this year, so that wasn''t in the budget anyway.

 

[TravelingGal]

Nope, wishful thinking though.

My realtor has been saying how she''s happy the housing market is coming back on track. I hate to burst her bubble but it''s SPRING. Traditionally the busier selling season. It''s going to be a little blip and then come down again for fall/winter. That season will be absolutely key in telling what is going to happen for next year.

 

[VRBeauty]

Date: 5/1/2009 8:02:05 PM
Author: luckystar112
Honestly, I live in Houston (which hasn't been affected as much as the rest of the country) so my view could be a little skewed, but I'm starting to feel like the economy is nothing but a state of mind. The media puts it out there that the economy sucks, people freak out and stop spending money, businesses end up losing money because no one is shopping, businesses have to lay people off, layoffs are blamed on the bad economy, people stop spending money, businesses end up losing money................


It's a cycle. I haven't altered my spending at all because I think people are going to snap out of it soon and things will pick back up again.


But this is from someone who only took basic economics, and I really don't know anything.

LS... I'm really curious to see whether anybody else thinks this slump is just a state of mind that will end when we all just snap out of it...

Is this something that some news sources are putting out there as a theory, or your assessment based on what you see around you?

My pay has been cut... I have friends and family members whose livelihood has been severely impacted... my city, county, and state governments are facing cuts because revenues are much lower than projected... and that's just what's going on within my very limited range of vision. I understand being wary of media hype and the need to feed the voracious appetite of the 24/7 media machine, but still...

As to whether we're on the way up, I have no idea. I do think the mood of a lot of people who were not directly affected by the downturn is starting to improve, which may lead to more spending etc. -- in support of Luckystar's theory!

 

[Skippy123]

Date: 5/1/2009 9:22:14 PM
Author: tigian
Nope, there are still many jobs being lost out here in CA. Unfortunately, it's going to get worse before it get's better.

I am sorry; I was reading some article where it said that CA was hit the hardest and then the midwest.

I heard also that TX wasn't hit as bad, that is probably why LuckyStar feels that way. The article also said that about 12% of economists said that things will improve this year and the others predict next year or the next few years. I think people are feeling the pinch and trying to be cautious; I know we are. I do have faith things will turn around but it is heart breaking to hear all the awful things in the news and to hear of possibilities of lay offs, etc. Real Estate is okay out her in NM but I have seen it do better. eta: VR and LS, I do the media can be to blame on some many things, fear etc = less spending causing some of the problems.

 

[Miscka]

I am not LuckyStar, but I can see where she is coming from. Where I live, things are bad but definitely not as bad as elsewhere. The only people I know who are having a hard time are younger people with retail jobs whose hours are being cut. Though I am fortunate and have a job that does well in these times, I still feel the "panic" of the economy, and I imagine that other people with recession-proof jobs do, too. It is a mindset of the general public, for sure, though obviously there are very real reasons for it, more so for some than others.

Either way, I try to be as hopeful as I can be and as responsible as I can be.

 

[luckystar112]

VR, it''s just my own personal theory. I do feel like the media is creating a hype and that people are reacting to it, creating one big cycle of a reduce in spending/lack of business/job layoffs.
Like I said, I''m not an expert...and for some reason I tend to actually believe DF when he gives his opinion on the economy, and he says we aren''t there yet.

Bebe, I''m not sure what section of town you''re in, but it appears to be the opposite on my side. For every small business that is closing down 2 are opening up. My in-laws were here from Virginia a couple of weeks ago and were flabberghasted at how "normal" things appeared to be compared to the rest of the country. FIL is a real estate agent so we were showing him the (ahem....ugly) McMansions that sprung up in our area and I''d say that close to 3/4 of them had "sold" signs out front. We took them to see the massive shopping center down our street, to Old Town Spring and to the new Riverwalk in the Woodlands, all areas that are extremely busy.
Don''t get me wrong, our favorite restaurant just shut down last month and we are bummed. We definitely have seen our share of empty buildings since this whole thing has started, but it just appears that all the new businesses in our area are more than making up for it.

 

[upgrade]

I don''t think we''ve felt the economic downturn nearly as much where I live (Western Canada) but things here appear to be somewhat on the improve? Or at the very least, not getting any worse. The real estate market has taken off again around me, which is great but as a previous poster said, spring is real estate season. Only time will tell...

 

[Abril]

The stock market sure has taken off since its low on March 9 (up 29.7%). If that low holds, the economy is likely to recover in 6-9 months after March 9.

 

[bebe]

Date: 5/1/2009 10:28:21 PM
Author: luckystar112
VR, it''s just my own personal theory. I do feel like the media is creating a hype and that people are reacting to it, creating one big cycle of a reduce in spending/lack of business/job layoffs.
Like I said, I''m not an expert...and for some reason I tend to actually believe DF when he gives his opinion on the economy, and he says we aren''t there yet.

Bebe, I''m not sure what section of town you''re in, but it appears to be the opposite on my side. For every small business that is closing down 2 are opening up. My in-laws were here from Virginia a couple of weeks ago and were flabberghasted at how ''normal'' things appeared to be compared to the rest of the country. FIL is a real estate agent so we were showing him the (ahem....ugly) McMansions that sprung up in our area and I''d say that close to 3/4 of them had ''sold'' signs out front. We took them to see the massive shopping center down our street, to Old Town Spring and to the new Riverwalk in the Woodlands, all areas that are extremely busy.
Don''t get me wrong, our favorite restaurant just shut down last month and we are bummed. We definitely have seen our share of empty buildings since this whole thing has started, but it just appears that all the new businesses in our area are more than making up for it.

I''m one of those people at The Woodlands Mall, but I am not dropping the cash like I used to. We don''t go out as much, but still go some. So IMHO, it might seem to look normal, but things have changed. The homes I''m seeing on the market are over 700,000. That''s a very nice house in HOuston (ha!!) I have a very close friend who has a million $ + home on the market, this couple lost much of their portfolio, which they were living off of. (sold a business) and have to sell their home, cars and boat. The wife is working at a plant nursery, the only job she could find. They have 3 sons in college - I feel for them. For a younger person who still has some job security, I can understand how they might not feel things are bad, afterall their life hasn''t changed that much. But for more mature workers and those who have lost their retirement portfolios, life has changed, a lot. I was recently in Canton, Texas, where the world''s largest flea market is located. I was curious about it after reading so much about a few of the vendors on design blogs. The place is enormous, over 200 acres with over 7500 vendors. And not all junk. Anyway, it was not crowded like I had been warned. In fact the shopping was easy. I asked a few vendors and all said the same thing - it''s slower than ever. This weekend was supposed to be their one of their biggest of the year. (open only 4 days per month) but it has been slow. Good for me, awful for them. Maybe the new business had their financing lined up before the worst of the crush began. I know a custom home builder who says his clients are having to put up larger down payments and the banks are taking their sweet time approving mortgage loans. From what I see, from my friends and business contacts, it is ugly out there. I feel very fortunate for now, I feel some security, but who knows how long that will last.

 

[VRBeauty]

Date: 5/1/2009 10:28:21 PM
Author: luckystar112
VR, it's just my own personal theory. I do feel like the media is creating a hype and that people are reacting to it, creating one big cycle of a reduce in spending/lack of business/job layoffs.

Like I said, I'm not an expert...and for some reason I tend to actually believe DF when he gives his opinion on the economy, and he says we aren't there yet.

DF (cryptic as always) could be saying that it isn't bad yet, or that it just isn't as bad yet as it's going to get.

 

[luckystar112]

I took it to mean the latter. I wasn''t clear, but I was trying to say that DF is making me rethink my whole theory.

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 5/1/2009 9:28:05 PM
Author: monarch64
I''m with DF, it''s going to get worse and bottom out sometime next year, and then begin to improve. Key thought: it WILL begin to improve! I just don''t see it happening now or in the very near future.

i think commercial property loan default will be next in line.