We have had 1 good day in the market since Obama was elected

[stone_seeker]

Coincidence? I think not.

Obama supporters willl say this is all Bush''s fault and I agree much of it is. But this has been the worst post-election market result in US history. We should have seen some bounce if the future - even if its a few years away - will be brighter under Obama.

I think Obama needs to speak to people about some of his anti-growth policies which are scaring investors to death. 1) His stance on unions needs a rapid change - it will crush corporate profits; 2) taxing the only people who have any money left is not a good idea right now. He can put that off until things stabilize. 3) His stance on free trade should be modified. We dont need protectionism right now.

I think if he said these things, and perhaps tossed americans a bone by lowering cap gains and encouraging investment, we might have a chance in our 401Ks and retirement accounts next year.

 

[sklingem]

COME ON!!!! The current, sadly unique state of the economy transcends any single person, including Obama. Right now pumping hundreds of billions into the economy has not created a bounce, and you are arguing that the IDEA of future policies is having a real effect?? Give me a (partisan) break, please! Maybe one could argue that the election of Obama has PREVENTED the market from crashing completely? How about that? Look, we just don''t know. Let''s give the guy time to implement his policies and then you can shred him, OK? In the mean-time I am sure you will find many other things that you can criticize him for, or the people who voted for him. Sigh.

 

[stone_seeker]

Date: 11/20/2008 2:21:12 PM
Author: rob09
COME ON!!!! The current, sadly unique state of the economy transcends any single person, including Obama. Right now pumping hundreds of billions into the economy has not created a bounce, and you are arguing that the IDEA of future policies is having a real effect?? Give me a (partisan) break, please! Maybe one could argue that the election of Obama has PREVENTED the market from crashing completely? How about that? Look, we just don''t know. Let''s give the guy time to implement his policies and then you can shred him, OK? In the mean-time I am sure you will find many other things that you can criticize him for, or the people who voted for him. Sigh.

So you are saying the economic policies on which Obama got elected are bullish for stocks? Is that your argument? Again you have responded with an angered remark that is completely baseless. My argument, which you have totally missed (because obama fanboys cant stand the thought of criticizing the Messiah), is that investors and markets have not warmed to the notion of stronger unions, higher taxes and protectionism.

Chill out dude.

 

[strmrdr]

actually protectionism is exactly what we need along with a rapid rebuild of the manufacturing sector.
That would be a much better way to spend 700 billion than on wall street crooks.

Raising taxes on anyone is utter stupidity right now that we can agree on.

Unions within bounds are a good thing.
The need to be reigned in some but that has been happening!

What wall street does is the worst thing to base a recovery on.
Wall street does not represent the people.

It is wall street that should be put out of business not unions.

 

[stone_seeker]

Date: 11/20/2008 2:30:44 PM
Author: strmrdr
actually protectionism is exactly what we need along with a rapid rebuild of the manufacturing sector.
That would be a much better way to spend 700 billion than on wall street crooks.

Raising taxes on anyone is utter stupidity right now that we can agree on.

Unions within bounds are a good thing.
The need to be reigned in some but that has been happening!

What wall street does is the worst thing to base a recovery on.
Wall street does not represent the people.

It is wall street that should be put out of business not unions.

I feel like I just read a manifesto from Hugo Chavez.

Best of luck getting businesses financed. How many people are employed for companies that are listed on a stock exchange or the Nasdaq? What happens when those companies cant find cheap money that wall street provides? I will tell you - you get government financed and run business which sounds like you prefer.

Nationalize everything!

 

[neatfreak]

I think blaming the man when this all started well before he was even the democratic nominee is stretching it a bit far...

 

[strmrdr]

Date: 11/20/2008 2:34:15 PM
Author: stone_seeker

I feel like I just read a manifesto from Hugo Chavez.


Best of luck getting businesses financed. How many people are employed for companies that are listed on a stock exchange or the Nasdaq? What happens when those companies cant find cheap money that wall street provides? I will tell you - you get government financed and run business which sounds like you prefer.


Nationalize everything!

Rofl, I'm the resident right wing extremest don't ya know. The government should be reduced to next to nothing as should all crooks.
They will get the money where they should banks and directly from investors cutting out the crooks in the middle.

 

[meresal]

Date: 11/20/2008 2:30:44 PM
Author: strmrdr
actually protectionism is exactly what we need along with a rapid rebuild of the manufacturing sector.
That would be a much better way to spend 700 billion than on wall street crooks.

Raising taxes on anyone is utter stupidity right now that we can agree on.

Unions within bounds are a good thing.
The need to be reigned in some but that has been happening!

What wall street does is the worst thing to base a recovery on.
Wall street does not represent the people.

It is wall street that should be put out of business not unions.

It is very easy to point the finger at those you do not know...

You've spoken about 3 million being out of jobs if the manufacturing industry goes down (RE: auto bailout thread)... well how about the millions of us that work for corporate banks that will be shut down nationwide(and internationally) if wall street is put out of business? My company is still laying off people, as of today, and our CEO isn't sitting on the steps of congress begging for money.

The are MANY hard working people, employed by these comapnies, that have absolutely NOTHING to do with why the market fell the way it did. If you want people to have compassion for a service you used to work in, then please try having a little comapssion for the others as well.

For the record, I wasn't for the Wall Street bail out, and I'm not for the auto one either.

ETA: Stone seeker, sorry for the thread jack. I thought that your OP was very unbiased and definitely a thought provoker. Who knows? It's a market? We shall see.

 

[strmrdr]

That actually brings up the major problem with wall street it went from a place for investors and companies to meet and make an exchange to a playground for crooks.

 

[strmrdr]

Date: 11/20/2008 2:42:28 PM
Author: meresal

You''ve spoken about 3 million being out of jobs if the manufacturing industry goes down (RE: auto bailout thread)... well how about the millions of us that work for corporate banks that will be shut down nationwide(and internationally) if wall street is put out of business?

They can get a job in the newly revamped manufacturing plants and add something to the economy.

 

[sklingem]

Look, you can criticize Obama all you want - when there is a basis for criticism and, most importantly - EVIDENCE. Your argument was that "a notion" - meaning Obama's stated future (economic) policies have the potential to boost/or deflate a market. My point is that the absence of a post-election boost is NOT automatically evidence for a market's reaction to a future president's policies. Right now, ACTUAL measures (the billions I was referring to)are having NO effect whatsoever. That suggests that "notions" (Obama's policy beliefs) have an even smaller likelihood of shaping market outcomes - "notions" that have not even been implemented. More importantly, the absence of a post-election boost could also be interpreted as a positive reaction to Obama's policies if one assumes that the markets would have crashed even more without him getting elected. Is that the case? I don't know. And we never will. But that argument is as valid as is yours. Bottom line: you can hypothesize all you want, but nobody has the evidence - and yours seems very unlikely given that the market is not even reacting to real interventions.
So this issue is not about me, or Obama fans, or Republicans, but about inferring something based on no evidence - and (let's be honest) with the goal of discrediting Obama. Which is fine by me - just try and come up with something a bit more realistic and sound.

 

[Beacon]

Date: 11/20/2008 2:34:15 PM
Author: stone_seeker

Date: 11/20/2008 2:30:44 PM
Author: strmrdr
actually protectionism is exactly what we need along with a rapid rebuild of the manufacturing sector.
That would be a much better way to spend 700 billion than on wall street crooks.

Raising taxes on anyone is utter stupidity right now that we can agree on.

Unions within bounds are a good thing.
The need to be reigned in some but that has been happening!

What wall street does is the worst thing to base a recovery on.
Wall street does not represent the people.

It is wall street that should be put out of business not unions.

I feel like I just read a manifesto from Hugo Chavez.

But with worse spelling.

 

[strmrdr]

Date: 11/20/2008 2:47:20 PM
Author: strmrdr

Date: 11/20/2008 2:42:28 PM

Author: meresal


You've spoken about 3 million being out of jobs if the manufacturing industry goes down (RE: auto bailout thread)... well how about the millions of us that work for corporate banks that will be shut down nationwide(and internationally) if wall street is put out of business?

They can get a job in the newly revamped manufacturing plants and add something to the economy.

This answer was snarky and for that I apologize but it is the way I feel about it in a lot of ways.
Yes their are some good people on Wall Street and it is likely a few bad apples make the rest look bad but to let it go on the way it was or even close to it is wrong.
My bottom line opinion is that the bailout money was misplaced and will not help the country recover.
It sure hasn't helped so far at all.

 

[luckystar112]

If the market had gone up instead of down, who do you think people would have given credit to? Hint: Not Bush
Similarly, if McCain had been elected and the market fell, what do you think people would have said? More of the same?

Sometimes I think we (collectively) are torturing ourselves with the double standards and hypocricies of politics, and the politicians are just laughing at us behind closed doors. Like at the end of "Fever Pitch" when Ben realizes that the fans care more about the game than the players. lol. Bad analogy, I know.

 

[sklingem]

Date: 11/20/2008 3:04:40 PM
Author: luckystar112
If the market had gone up instead of down, who do you think people would have given credit to? Hint: Not Bush

Similarly, if McCain had been elected and the market fell, what do you think people would have said? More of the same?


Sometimes I think we (collectively) are torturing ourselves with the double standards and hypocricies of politics, and the politicians are just laughing at us behind closed doors. Like at the end of ''Fever Pitch'' when Ben realizes that the fans care more about the game than the players. lol. Bad analogy, I know.

Lucky - that is exactly why people should just shut up when it comes to wild speculation - no matter what party or candidate.

 

[gwendolyn]

Date: 11/20/2008 2:37:20 PM
Author: neatfreak
I think blaming the man when this all started well before he was even the democratic nominee is stretching it a bit far...

Ditto.

Threads like this make me wish I could delete this whole forum off of my PS forum list. Just give me a break.

 

[tradergirl]

No coincidence. I made this point in another thread. I covered my year old index short positions in September but once it became obvious he was going to be win, good sense be damned, I went back in and reshorted. I am covering today though.

It''s not a question of "waiting" to see what he does. What he wants to do is well known. Here''s something to look at for short term. i suspect the market can rally back part way from now until maybe February. It is after old, historically oversold and these damn hedge funds who are being liquidated should be done soon.

I expect to see much lower lows next year. Right now, we basically came down and double bottomed with the 2002 lows (imagine that, an entire 5 year bull market wiped out) and that is a logical place to bottom short term at least.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10449144/1/kass-times-running-out-for-a-rally.html

 

[tradergirl]

Luckystar, exactly right. We have Bush derangement syndrome and Obama messiah syndrome. And yes, we can "blame" him before he''s even in office because his policies and ideology are well known. The market is a discounting mechanism and some clues are already in place via announced appointments.

 

[zhuzhu]

Sometimes I think a few posters post for the sake of getting a reaction out of others (lack of attention at home maybe?). They obviously do not care about factual evidence, extreme biases, and lack of validity in the content of their postings.

 

[Linda W]

Date: 11/20/2008 3:12:35 PM
Author: gwendolyn

Date: 11/20/2008 2:37:20 PM

Author: neatfreak

I think blaming the man when this all started well before he was even the democratic nominee is stretching it a bit far...

Ditto.


Threads like this make me wish I could delete this whole forum off of my PS forum list. Just give me a break.

DOUBLE DITTO Gwen

 

[sklingem]

Date: 11/20/2008 3:22:36 PM
Author: zhuzhu
Sometimes I think a few posters post for the sake of getting a reaction out of others (lack of attention at home maybe?). They obviously do not care about factual evidence, extreme biases, and lack of validity in the content of their postings.

Amen. Oh, my cat peed in my living room. And my stock just went down! Hm ... market knows best. Peeing in living room = BAD!!!

 

[decodelighted]

How many jobs have been lost in the last 16 days? I wonder -- since that''s what the stock market''s latest dive is being blamed on.

I guess all the companies that laid people off BEFORE 16 days ago were PSYCHIC!

 

[purrfectpear]

I had chili twice this week and BA went down below $40 and IDS is laying off 800 people.

It must be the chili. No more chili eating.

 

[tradergirl]

Z: one hallmark of the Obama supporters I have seen throughout the year was the quick personal attack on anyone who dared question his holiness.

You can say what you want but da fax is da fax. The market has crashed since he was elected. End of story.

 

[tradergirl]

Well, thank you Mr. Obama for an insane profit shorting the market in anticipation of your election. In your honor, I will take some of the money and buy a bunch of arugula.

 

[iheartscience]

Date: 11/20/2008 3:31:04 PM
Author: tradergirl
Z: one hallmark of the Obama supporters I have seen throughout the year was the quick personal attack on anyone who dared question his holiness.


You can say what you want but da fax is da fax. The market has crashed since he was elected. End of story.

Quick personal attack? Kind of like when stone_seeker called rob an Obama fanboy and Strm Hugo Chavez for disagreeing with her? Something tells me stone_seeker isn''t an Obama supporter, so I guess this is a hallmark of McCain supporters as well!

 

[sklingem]

Date: 11/20/2008 3:31:04 PM
Author: tradergirl
Z: one hallmark of the Obama supporters I have seen throughout the year was the quick personal attack on anyone who dared question his holiness.
You can say what you want but da fax is da fax. The market has crashed since he was elected. End of story.

If you are so keen on facts: the Dow dipped to around 8000 end of October - BEFORE the elections. It went up again until November 4th, then has been going down again. So why did it go up by over 1000 pts between the end of October and Election day? Because the market "knew" that Obama and his Marxist policies was going to get elected??? Hm ...
Nobody is arguing that the markets have been taking a dive since Obama got elected. Arguing that there is a direct causal mechanism between the two is just baseless and pure speculation. If you want to believe it - so be it. And if it makes you feel happy - that is great too. Fact is also: Since I got my tooth pulled on election day the Dow has been going down. End of story. Please don't confuse science with partisanship/ideology. Then again, science has been a dirty word in many GOP circles. Let's ask Joe the Plumber to predict market trends.

 

[neatfreak]

Date: 11/20/2008 3:31:04 PM
Author: tradergirl

You can say what you want but da fax is da fax. The market has crashed since he was elected. End of story.

You obviously don't understand the difference between causation and correlation then. A LOT of things have happened in the world since he was elected but almost everything wasn't caused by Obama being elected.

 

[stone_seeker]

Date: 11/20/2008 3:31:04 PM
Author: tradergirl
Z: one hallmark of the Obama supporters I have seen throughout the year was the quick personal attack on anyone who dared question his holiness.

You can say what you want but da fax is da fax. The market has crashed since he was elected. End of story.

Thank you. Obama is a guy who when campaigning was out every day blaming other people when things were going wrong. He may not technically be president yet, but what happens now IS on his watch. Where are his ideas? Where is the leadership?

To my original point - the markets dont like whats to come. We are pricing in some serious reductions in cash flows. Bush made them bad - but Obama''s policies are making them worse. And if he is going to modify some of them, he should be speaking to the people rather than let the market crash every day. I guess he''s too busy hiring Clinton retreads and being a typical politician.

But as you said, god forbid someone implies obama isnt perfect.

 

[stone_seeker]

Date: 11/20/2008 3:51:35 PM
Author: neatfreak

Date: 11/20/2008 3:31:04 PM
Author: tradergirl

You can say what you want but da fax is da fax. The market has crashed since he was elected. End of story.

You obviously don''t understand the difference between causation and correlation then. A LOT of things have happened in the world since he was elected but almost everything wasn''t caused by Obama being elected.

Well I do. And I speak to money managers every single day. What I hear from each of them is they "fear" that the policies that are to come are going to lower corporate profits. But hey, who cares if your portfolio is down 90% - you have free healthcare now.