Where are the price jumps?

[dockman3]

I think its actually more interesting to look at not 1 pt under the milestones, but rather 10 pts under. If you take Kenny's great legwork, you get a list that looks like this:

0.4 3196
0.5 375
0.6 1536
0.7 3144
0.8 1486
0.9 2015
1.0 1387
1.4 199
1.5 632
1.9 36
2.0 214

When you look at these numbers, it looks to me like there the consumer is becoming more educated and more people are asking for 0.9ct stones, rather than 1.0ct. I guess its possible that Blue Nile sells the 1.0ct stones as fast as they get them in, hence they always have a low inventory. I think its very interesting to see that there are more 0.7ct than any other weight with 0.9ct as the 2nd most. Myabe someone else here can answer why, but I just thought it was an interesting observation that nobody else seemed to mention.

Thanks for the great work Kenny! This is a fun topic.

 

[tyty333]

Kenny...great stuff! Now could you figure out the average price difference between every color/clarity/cut combinations
between the .x9s and the next whole tenth up? I'd be curious what the jump in price is.

 

[ChrisES]

I think its actually more interesting to look at not 1 pt under the milestones, but rather 10 pts under. If you take Kenny's great legwork, you get a list that looks like this:

0.4 3196
0.5 375
0.6 1536
0.7 3144
0.8 1486
0.9 2015
1.0 1387
1.4 199
1.5 632
1.9 36
2.0 214

When you look at these numbers, it looks to me like there the consumer is becoming more educated and more people are asking for 0.9ct stones, rather than 1.0ct. I guess its possible that Blue Nile sells the 1.0ct stones as fast as they get them in, hence they always have a low inventory. I think its very interesting to see that there are more 0.7ct than any other weight with 0.9ct as the 2nd most. Myabe someone else here can answer why, but I just thought it was an interesting observation that nobody else seemed to mention.

Thanks for the great work Kenny! This is a fun topic.

The only problem with this is that per deverappraiser's post, .4 and .9 are breakpoints themselves. And Paul confirmed .9 as well.

 

[John P]

Kenny,

It's illuminating information. Thank you.

Once my work day was done I took the time to supplement your data with numbers from our most significant professional trading network. Per Paul's post I colored "official" price-category jumps in red, and some other jumps the trade considers important in orange.

From a RB search in all colors, clarities, cut grades and labs.
1st number = diamonds located in the USA - 2nd number = diamond located worldwide (includes USA).

0.24 262 (612 - 1,852)
0.25 206 (550 - 1,475)

0.29 103 (232 - 582)
0.30 5,006 (3,416 - 31,653)

0.39 154 (527 - 1,396)
0.40 3,196 (3,656 - 25,846)

0.49 22 (250 - 514)
0.50 375 (5,515 - 31,985)

0.59 179 (750 - 1,903)
0.60 1,536 (1,942 - 10,339)

0.69 16 (196 - 335)
0.70 3,144 (7,856 - 30,555)

0.74 264 (1,224 - 2,889)
0.75 541 (1,207 - 3,666)

0.79 77 (447 - 877)
0.80 1,486 (2,592 - 9,987)

0.89 11 (122 - 213)
0.90 2,015 (5,397 - 16,860)

0.99 22 (183 - 292)
1.00 1,387 (7,710 - 20,627)

1.09 179 (949 - 1,94
1.10 215 (1,019 - 2,270)

1.19 75 (403 - 797)
1.20 479 (2,357 - 4,333)

1.24 185 (761 - 1,389)
1.25 239 (1,019 - 1,819)

1.29 70 (421 - 747)
1.30 314 (1,219 - 2,317)

1.39 21 (199 - 311)
1.40 199 (698 - 1,271)

1.49 5 (88 - 124)
1.50 632 (3,798 - 8,115)

1.59 71 (353 - 594)
1.60 106 (616 - 1,090)

1.69 16 (122 - 193)
1.70 263 (1,533 - 2,869)

1.74 52 (302 - 525)
1.75 47 (313 - 596)

1.79 18 (112 - 183)
1.80 95 (532 - 892)

1.89 4 (40 - 5
1.90 36 (218 - 334)

1.99 3 (38 - 4
2.00 214 (1,499 - 3,363)

2.49 5 (52 - 72)
2.50 34 (409 - 692)

2.99 0 (5 - 6)
3.00 49 (376 - 772)

3.99 (11 - 23)
4.00 (95 - 181)

4.99 (0 - 0)
5.00 (49 - 9

9.99 (0 - 0) - WOE BE to the polisher who finishes a stone at this weight!
10.00 (2 - 3)

Cheers,

 

[John P]

I think its actually more interesting to look at not 1 pt under the milestones, but rather 10 pts under. If you take Kenny's great legwork, you get a list that looks like this:

0.4 3196
0.5 375
0.6 1536
0.7 3144
0.8 1486
0.9 2015
1.0 1387
1.4 199
1.5 632
1.9 36
2.0 214

When you look at these numbers, it looks to me like there the consumer is becoming more educated and more people are asking for 0.9ct stones, rather than 1.0ct. I guess its possible that Blue Nile sells the 1.0ct stones as fast as they get them in, hence they always have a low inventory. I think its very interesting to see that there are more 0.7ct than any other weight with 0.9ct as the 2nd most. Myabe someone else here can answer why, but I just thought it was an interesting observation that nobody else seemed to mention.

Thanks for the great work Kenny! This is a fun topic.

0.4, 0.5, 0.7 and 0.9 are all price-change thresholds, so groupings on those specifics numbers is logical.

Let's consider that polishers targeting the 0.9X range have only 9 possible landing points between 0.90-0.99, whereas they will have twice as many landing points when targeting the 1.XX range (they have more actually, but let's confine it to 1.00-1.19). To compare the numbers of options being produced in different weight categories consider the entire span of that category.

Example:

0.90-0.99 numbers 3195 BN (10,653 - 28,190)
1.00-1.19 numbers 8210 BN (38,873 - 88,956)

While I agree that consumers are becoming more educated, my experience is that the "1ct" threshold continues to be an iconic and largely desired weight.

You did turn up an interesting piece of data. Our main professional trading network has far fewer 0.70-0.89ct diamonds available in the USA than in the 1.00-1.20ct category by about 25%. Alternately, BlueNile has more in the smaller range. This may reflect greater purchasing confidence from internet shoppers at the 3/4 carat price point ~ or it may be something completely different. In any case it's a cool little factoid.