India stops rough diamond imports for 2 months

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

Natural diamond prices will rise. On top of India stopping rough imports, Russia has stopped exporting.
What changed, what happened:
1. jewelers and wholesalers are stocking fewer natural diamonds and more man made dian=monds - even though prices on larger stones will continue to fall by 300-600%.
2. retail jewelers are bypassing wholesalers and using free platforms like Nivoda and VDB to access more than a million natural diamonds. So reducing stock.
And as a response GIA gives a discount to get more business so they still don't pay any tax.
3. big companies like Signet are holding far fewer stones in their B&M stores. thats why they bought JA, and more recently BN.

Meanwhile GIA's immediate response to fewer diamonds being graded is to offer huge discounts:

Dear Valued Client, As the holiday season approaches, we would like to show our appreciation for our clients for their role in recognizing the enduring value of diamonds and for enabling us to fulfill our mission of supporting public trust in the gem and jewelry industry. ​

To express our gratitude, we are pleased to announce reduced fees on all update services for natural diamond, colored diamond, and laboratory-grown diamond reports. For a limited time, update fees will be reduced by approximately 50% of the published fee schedule. eReport and Diamond Dossier® Update fees will now be 40% of the current grading fee (normally 80%) Diamond Grading and Color Diamond Grading Report Update fees If within 1 year of report being issued, will now be 25% of current grading fee (normally 50%) If after 1 year of report being issued, will now be 40% of current grading fee (normally 75%)

Reduced fees are effective immediately and will continue until December 31, 2023. To participate in this exciting offer, simply resubmit your previously graded loose diamonds and reference their GIA report numbers. ​

To submit to GIA: Place each loose diamond in an individual parcel paper. Attach a barcode label to the parcel paper (contact GIA for barcode labels)*. Log into My Laboratory. Use Submit Job Order in My Laboratory to create a job. Print the My Laboratory Job Order No. In your shipment, include your diamonds, the My Laboratory Job Order No. printout and previous hard copies of your reports if you still have them. *Recommended for submissions of 10 stones or more. ​

We hope this offer will help you update your inventory while reducing costs as you prepare for the holiday season. Please do not hesitate to contact your client services representative with any questions or if you need assistance submitting your items for update services. Thank you for your business and support. Sincerely, GIA​

 

[Karl_K]

Prices can only go up if consumers are willing to pay.
The winners will be Apple and the lab diamond market.

 

[LilAlex]

The winners will be Apple and the lab diamond market.

Why Apple?

 

[Karl_K]

Why Apple?

New phone as an expensive gift versus trinkets.
In the valentines, birthday, Christmas markets phones have took over from watches and jewellery.
Apple owns over half of the total cell phone market and something like 80%+ of the high cost cell phone market.

 

[Karl_K]

Apple in iphone sales alone in 2022 was close to the amount of the entire worldwide jewelry trade not just diamonds by some estimates.

per google:
The global jewelry market size was valued at USD 216.48 billion in 2022

per Google for 2022.
iPhones alone brought in a USD 205 billion revenue to Apple

 

[nala]

Prices can only go up if consumers are willing to pay.
The winners will be Apple and the lab diamond market.

I don’t know about the lab diamond market being a winner. At some point that is going to tap out too—especially when the deciding factor for many is cheap prices—and I just saw a preowned certified lab ring in the preloved forum for dirt cheap. When the second hand market is pricing lab rings at moissanite or even cubic zirconia prices—lab customers will start to lose interest in labs stones too. The lab consumers want cheap and will wait it out and eventually, no one will want them either. Natural diamond consumers on the other hand, want to spend money on what they perceive to be a hard to acquire item, and if prices jump and supply decreases, the natural diamond market will be the long term winners.

People want what they can’t have. People don’t want what comes too easy. If vendors had any faith in the stability of the lgd market, they would offer trade up’s and would hold their prices high.

 

[nala]

New phone as an expensive gift versus trinkets.
In the valentines, birthday, Christmas markets phones have took over from watches and jewellery.
Apple owns over half of the total cell phone market and something like 80%+ of the high cost cell phone market.

Everyone is addicted to their phone perhaps that is a factor as well. Of all ages. Genders. Etc.

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

Phones are a red herring. They get changed every 3-4 years now as Moores law has hit a bump.
This is a serious issue for the trade and signals a close to the bottom of the market.

 

[Rockdiamond]

Natural diamond prices will rise

I think we need to call Marty to let him know….. broad based decreases on todays new Rap list…..
Maybe long term?

 

[Cerulean]

New phone as an expensive gift versus trinkets.
In the valentines, birthday, Christmas markets phones have took over from watches and jewellery.
Apple owns over half of the total cell phone market and something like 80%+ of the high cost cell phone market.

Interesting parallel but I don’t think it’s the same bc you must only be looking at USA for this comparison. Apple / iOS is not nearly as prevalent in global markets, especially Asia where android dominates by a large margin...

Globally, Apple has closer to 17% market share for smart phones and that doesn’t include cheaper cell phones

 

[smitcompton]

Hi,
I think this issue is important to the trade. However, trying to manipulate the diamond market reeks of the old monopoly of DeBeers. Instead, perhaps they should accept that LGD will remain in competition with natural diamonds, which are not scarce or rare, except in larger sizes.

People are influenced by friends and family members who could be advocates for LGD, not just for price but because the LGd looks exactly the same as a natural diamond. Who asks people the specs on their diamonds? A young woman, newly engaged, waves her hand around and we say. Oh how beautiful. Who is going to ask whether or not it is natural. I see women buying this product.

Natural diamonds will still be desired. I think the market size will shrink.

I have seen no evidence that WhiteFlash prices are lower or James Allen. So where are these lower prices for natural white diamonds?

Annette

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

I have seen no evidence that WhiteFlash prices are lower or James Allen. So where are these lower prices for natural white diamonds?

Annette

I set up price change alerts on PriceScope over a year ago on a stone or two (Andrey wanted me to test the new function) and have been getting big price drop notifications recently.
BTW its a year since Andrey's passing

 

[Petalouda]

I wonder if the antique diamond market will be the biggest winner. It is so easy to replicate modern lab diamonds. A lab cut MRB to ACA specifications is indistinguishable from a natural MRB cut to the same ACA specifications. Antique diamonds are replicated but not exactly as each antique-cut natural diamond has its own unique characteristics.

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

I wonder if the antique diamond market will be the biggest winner. It is so easy to replicate modern lab diamonds. A lab cut MRB to ACA specifications is indistinguishable from a natural MRB cut to the same ACA specifications. Antique diamonds are replicated but not exactly as each antique-cut natural diamond has its own unique characteristics.

A bit off topic, but it is easier to cut a wobbly stone than a tight well performing one. Most cutters doing replicas of old cuts are aiming for better performance.

 

[glitterata]

I set up price change alerts on PriceScope over a year ago on a stone or two (Andrey wanted me to test the new function) and have been getting big price drop notifications recently.
BTW its a year since Andrey's passing

Garry, that looks like a price increase, not a drop?

 

[0-0-0]

Some diamonds I have been tracking on JA and BN have dropped around 5% in price in September. These are under 0.5 carat GIA XXX D-H VVS/VS with medium/strong fluorescence.

 

[Texas Leaguer]

It's good to see the biggest players in the diamond industry stepping up to support the market. The combination of challenges right now is truly unprecedented. The situation seems to have brought about broad-based collective action to rebalance supply and demand, thereby stabilizing prices.

The last time there was action on this scale in the trade was right after the pandemic hit, and it was effective in stabilizing prices. No reason to think these adjustments will not be successful in the long term. What happens in the short to medium term is more of an open question.

This may seem biased but I agree with Garry that these are events that would be seen as buy signals in other markets.

Also, for anyone thinking supply cuts are monopolistic or anti-competitive, markets regularly make such adjustments including farmers not growing crops when prices are too low, and energy producers deciding not to pump oil rather than bring it to market when prices are unusually low.

 

[ItsMainelyYou]

It's good to see the biggest players in the diamond industry stepping up to support the market. The combination of challenges right now is truly unprecedented. The situation seems to have brought about broad-based collective action to rebalance supply and demand, thereby stabilizing prices.

The last time there was action on this scale in the trade was right after the pandemic hit, and it was effective in stabilizing prices. No reason to think these adjustments will not be successful in the long term. What happens in the short to medium term is more of an open question.

This may seem biased but I agree with Garry that these are events that would be seen as buy signals in other markets.

Also, for anyone thinking supply cuts are monopolistic or anti-competitive, markets regularly make such adjustments including farmers not growing crops when prices are too low, and energy producers deciding not to pump oil rather than bring it to market when prices are unusually low.

The primary difference being those other examples are actual commodities. Diamonds aren't.

 

[smitcompton]

The primary difference being those other examples are actual commodities. Diamonds aren't.

Hi,

Not only are diamonds not a commodity, but Opec is certainly considered a monopolistic organization.

I went back and read the article about the cutbacks in diamond rough delivery to India. I learned that diamond prices hit new highs in 2021. It seems that unlike stocks and bond investors, who have taken losses on the highs of 2021. the diamond industry doesn't want to give any gains of those higher prices back. I recently found diamond prices to be ridiculous. Perhaps diamonds need a correction in the price, just like oil corrects and stocks and bonds correct.

India has an over supply of diamonds. Doesn't bode well for diamond prices. The ban is short-lived.

Annette

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

Garry, that looks like a price increase, not a drop?

My bad, you're right G