How long should I wait? Prices Dropping

[LoveMunkie]

Hi! We are looking to purchase a natural diamond in a cut and carat size that is currently dropping in price. Just curious if any experts on here can help predict the downward trend and if/when retailers will adjust their prices to reflect, and then when would be a good time to buy? I want it like yesterday but obviously also want the best bang for our bucks! It’s SO hard to wait!

 

[kenny]

What if you wait and prices go up?
Will you wait till they go down again?
But then, when will prices bottom out?

I say, if you want it now and have the funds now then buy it now.

 

[denverappraiser]

People ask me variations on this question frequently. The answer is always the same. Ask a psychic, not an appraiser. Hindsight is easy. Foresight is impossible.

 

[0515vision]

Holidays are coming, too …

 

[Rockdiamond]

Hi Munkie
If I may ask- what are the specifics?
Not that I’ll have any sort of definitive answer- but I am curious as to why you are saying that specific article is dropping.
In general- I think consumers are smart if they keep track and purchase at competitive prices

 

[tyty333]

Your guess is probably as good as ours!

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[kenny]

... Ask a psychic, not an appraiser. ...

Neil, has anyone ever asked you for a referral to a psychic who's certified by GIA?

 

[LoveMunkie]

Hi! It’s info I heard from my contacts in the industry. I don’t know much though or the specifics, that’s why I was hoping someone on here knew more “insider information”!

 

[tyty333]

What are the specifics of the stone you are looking for? Size range, color, clarity etc...

 

[Karl_K]

In my opinion it all depends on Christmas sales.
A large percentage of the sales happen around Christmas and Valentines day and the cutters are normally going all out to produce finished goods this time of year.
Not so much this year, the rough sales numbers that I saw where around 50% or less of last year.
So if sales pick up for Christmas asking prices are going to go up due to limited supply but if they can get those prices will remain a question.
It might just drive more people to lab diamonds.
If sales remain super slow thru Valentines then its possible prices drop further as more companies go bankrupt.
Which way will it go?
I have no idea.......

 

[Rockdiamond]

Look at it this way...
Say we compare 2020 to 2023
For the sake of argument, the same number of people bought diamond rings each year- say it was 10 million diamond rings sold. In 2020, it was 95% natural, earth diamonds, 5% Lab grown diamonds
The average price of these rings in 2020 was $10,000.
Now to 2023.
Same 10 million buyers, same number of diamond rings, but now it's 50% natural, earth diamonds, 50% Lab grown diamonds.
That brings the average cost way down.
In other words- the raw amount of dollars flowing into the industry has been reduced. Drastically, and in a short amount of time.
As Karl points out, less Earth rough is being cut- and the people who want Earth mined are pretty dedicated- so likely, demand will survive.
Will reduced supply raise prices... really impossible to say.

But for sure the changes I see in total volume will affect things....

 

[0515vision]

@Rockdiamond Im really surprised that the number of rings sold stayed steady. As someone who will likely never be able to afford a mined diamond, I was pulled into the market bc of lab prices. I would think that the total number of rings sold would have gone up.

Yes, I’m sure a significant portion of the market converted to mined. And im not surprised that the conversion has drastically reduced overall profits in the industry. But hasn’t lab pulled in new customers?

And please excuse me if this is hijacking the thread.

 

[Rockdiamond]

@Rockdiamond Im really surprised that the number of rings sold stayed steady. As someone who will likely never be able to afford a mined diamond, I was pulled into the market bc of lab prices. I would think that the total number of rings sold would have gone up.

Yes, I’m sure a significant portion of the market converted to mined. And im not surprised that the conversion has drastically reduced overall profits in the industry. But hasn’t lab pulled in new customers?

And please excuse me if this is hijacking the thread.

Apologies for my lack of clarity….
im not sure if more or less rings were sold….just making an observation on the state of the industry

 

[MissGotRocks]

Not sure how the pricing works - how much a vendor pays for a diamond vs. how much they sell them for? Do vendors pick and choose what they want to stock or do they take what is offered to them? I am not seeing a big price drop for naturals - that may have to change a bit to keep the sales moving.

 

[Rockdiamond]

Not sure how the pricing works - how much a vendor pays for a diamond vs. how much they sell them for? Do vendors pick and choose what they want to stock or do they take what is offered to them? I am not seeing a big price drop for naturals - that may have to change a bit to keep the sales moving.

There’s no “standard” profit margin. The vast majority of internet diamond sales are made by site/ companies that carry no diamond inventory.
This disconnect means less immediate reaction to market changes during price drops.
They sure seem to get it done immediately when the prices have risen though….

 

[MissGotRocks]

There’s no “standard” profit margin. The vast majority of internet diamond sales are made by site/ companies that carry no diamond inventory.
This disconnect means less immediate reaction to market changes during price drops.
They sure seem to get it done immediately when the prices have risen though….

It is an interesting market to be sure. Carrying inventory can be costly for those who do and I guess that has to factor into their pricing as well. Seems to be no rhyme or reason to pricing or selection these days; guess it is all just uncharted territory now.

 

[LoveMunkie]

In my opinion it all depends on Christmas sales.
A large percentage of the sales happen around Christmas and Valentines day and the cutters are normally going all out to produce finished goods this time of year.
Not so much this year, the rough sales numbers that I saw where around 50% or less of last year.
So if sales pick up for Christmas asking prices are going to go up due to limited supply but if they can get those prices will remain a question.
It might just drive more people to lab diamonds.
If sales remain super slow thru Valentines then its possible prices drop further as more companies go bankrupt.
Which way will it go?
I have no idea.......

That makes a lot of sense! I so precise your thoughts!

 

[LoveMunkie]

That makes a lot of sense! I so precise your thoughts!

I APPRECIATE your thoughts ‍

 

[LoveMunkie]

Look at it this way...
Say we compare 2020 to 2023
For the sake of argument, the same number of people bought diamond rings each year- say it was 10 million diamond rings sold. In 2020, it was 95% natural, earth diamonds, 5% Lab grown diamonds
The average price of these rings in 2020 was $10,000.
Now to 2023.
Same 10 million buyers, same number of diamond rings, but now it's 50% natural, earth diamonds, 50% Lab grown diamonds.
That brings the average cost way down.
In other words- the raw amount of dollars flowing into the industry has been reduced. Drastically, and in a short amount of time.
As Karl points out, less Earth rough is being cut- and the people who want Earth mined are pretty dedicated- so likely, demand will survive.
Will reduced supply raise prices... really impossible to say.

But for sure the changes I see in total volume will affect things....

This is so interesting to me! Thank you for sharing!

 

[RRfromR]

I'm shopping for old cuts and I'm not seeing a lot of price drop.

 

[mustangchi]

I'm shopping for old cuts and I'm not seeing a lot of price drop.

same unfortunately