Diamond prices are falling because disintermediation is "Cutting out the middlemen”

[Tigerlilyrosepetal]

Hi,
This is such a touchy subject and I am hesitant to say my opinion because I don’t want to hurt feelings, so please understand that first. I’m just giving my thoughts since I think the lab v natural debate is so interesting! I got married in 2003 and could never afford a rock like I so badly wanted then, and for many years after we were married. For me personally, what makes me feel that a diamond is worth wearing on my finger is that I know I paid a lot of money for it! Yes-I said it!! And that I worked very hard to earn it! After about ten years of marriage I was able to buy a very crappy stone and then have been upgrading every chance I could get over the years.

So my value system is maybe different from the younger generation. The best I could do was a 1.5 F stone after May years of marriage-and then the lab world opened up.

I have bought two nice labs since, but honestly they just don’t make me feel like they are special because they were so cheap. They are beautiful, identical, and I love them in their own way. However,I have noticed that I don’t find I value them nearly as much. I wear them because they are pretty and I wouldn’t mind losing them, but they just don’t have the same value and appreciation as a natural stone, in that the natural stone was a very big financial sacrifice for me and I’m proud of that.

Everyone can think differently and I’m cool with your opinions too I do think that the labs will go the way of the Cz and mossisanite though, just due to over-supply and continuing falling prices. I think people won’t put value as much in the lab if it were worth less money and I think that due to an ability to produce as many as possible, the prices will fall. I also know I’ve already tried to trade my labs and some naturals in for a trade and the jewelers I spoke with were completely not interested in the labs whatsoever either, telling me they had no value. This too makes me leery of buying any more labs.

 

[nala]

I also predict that lab diamonds will be sold at TJMaxx etc. The supply of lab diamonds is not limited and the price will come down a lot as it did with Cubic Zirconias. The difference will be that TJMaxx will not be setting the lab diamonds in gold. Rather settings will be in Sterling or other metals with gold plating. It is the gold settings that make jewelry more unaffordable for the average consumer. Higher gold prices =smaller diamonds for affordability. Gold prices go up. There is no man made gold.

Tj maxx carries 14k gold jewelry

 

[VDK1]

I have bought two nice labs since, but honestly they just don’t make me feel like they are special because they were so cheap. They are beautiful, identical, and I love them in their own way. However,I have noticed that I don’t find I value them nearly as much. I wear them because they are pretty and I wouldn’t mind losing them, but they just don’t have the same value and appreciation as a natural stone

Oh yes! Cambride Dictionary:

"Custume jewelry : cheap jewelry made to look as if it is expensive"

costume jewellery

cheap jewellery made to look as if it is expensive

dictionary.cambridge.org

 

[Bonfire]

I

I don't find the younger generations very interested in diamonds and natural colored gemstones. I think there will always be some market, but even here on PS I don't see the enthusiasm that I used to see in the past

I think this is very true. That’s why I wondered if some of the allure of labs for the younger generation was their sustainability and less environmental footprint. Hence my comment up thread. Whatever floats your boat. Jewelry should provide joy!

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

I disagree.

Younger generations are embracing labs. The less expensive the better. I don't think they're going to care if they see them at TJ Maxx, in fact they'd probably stock up if they did.
Their mentality is very different than that of older generations.

They'll always be a market for naturals, I just think it's going to shrink quite a bit. Part of the reason is they don't have the same kind of disposable income that their parents and grandparents have.

Yes, some natural market will be canablized, but middle and lower end. Upper end, like merc, Beemers, Tesla and super fast sports cars, will always exist.

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

My opinion, for what it’s worth, is that vintage stones will continue to have appeal to people. Firstly, they were mined a long time ago, so may appease people who are anti mining now, and secondly, the romance behind a stone. By that I mean, they aren’t perfect, and those imperfections (i.e. slightly wonky, and a different facet pattern to MRBs) will (hopefully) continue to fascinate people who want something different. For me, I like to think that whoever owned Bella originally was much loved and cherished that she was given such a beautiful (and large) diamond. At least that’s what I tell myself

What is the controversy around Beyoncé’s Tiffany campaign?

‘I can’t be fascinated and just look past the inherent history of a 150 year old blood diamond just because it’s on Beyoncé,’ one critic says

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

Jewelry should provide joy!

That has been my mantra for decades.
A symbol to mark important events in time.

 

[elle_chris]

Yes, some natural market will be canablized, but middle and lower end. Upper end, like merc, Beemers, Tesla and super fast sports cars, will always exist.

It's funny you should mention Tesla.
Last December I purchased a brand new Tesla S. A few days later the first price drop of 10k happened. It's been decreasing ever since at the whim of Musk.
As of two weeks ago (less than a year since I purchased the car), he dropped the price about 30k total.
So even things on the upper end can sink.

 

[shelovesinclusions]

Tj maxx carries 14k gold jewelry

I have just been observing (usually stick to the cs realm), but your statement got me thinking- TJ Maxx & outlet malls sell designer/name brand items too. From what I've heard, sometimes the quality of outlet versions of items may be a little lower- but that doesn't stop people from buying. It doesn't stop people from buying the highest end versions of luxury goods either. It just makes a brand accessible to more people. And if it doesn't work, they just retract that arm of sales. Even Christian Dior had mass market items in department stores in the 80s, and I don't think it hurt their brand reputation in the long run. Is this the direction diamonds are going maybe?

 

[nala]

I have just been observing (usually stick to the cs realm), but your statement got me thinking- TJ Maxx & outlet malls sell designer/name brand items too. From what I've heard, sometimes the quality of outlet versions of items may be a little lower- but that doesn't stop people from buying. It doesn't stop people from buying the highest end versions of luxury goods either. It just makes a brand accessible to more people. And if it doesn't work, they just retract that arm of sales. Even Christian Dior had mass market items in department stores in the 80s, and I don't think it hurt their brand reputation in the long run. Is this the direction diamonds are going maybe?

I think the difference would be an engagement ring vs buying jewelry for oneself.

 

[MrsBlue]

I have just been observing (usually stick to the cs realm), but your statement got me thinking- TJ Maxx & outlet malls sell designer/name brand items too. From what I've heard, sometimes the quality of outlet versions of items may be a little lower- but that doesn't stop people from buying. It doesn't stop people from buying the highest end versions of luxury goods either. It just makes a brand accessible to more people. And if it doesn't work, they just retract that arm of sales. Even Christian Dior had mass market items in department stores in the 80s, and I don't think it hurt their brand reputation in the long run. Is this the direction diamonds are going maybe?

I was having similar thoughts. The market could just move in a new direction and have new tiers. People would have Christmas ornaments and wedding gowns studded with diamonds instead of swarovski crystals. It's not a bad thing.

 

[nala]

I was having similar thoughts. The market could just move in a new direction and have new tiers. People would have Christmas ornaments and wedding gowns studded with diamonds instead of swarovski crystals. It's not a bad thing.

So if you had a lab diamond studded gown, would anyone still want a lab ring? Like. Do people opt for swarovski crystal engagement rings?

 

[Lookinagain]

Among the young couples I know ER rings from Walmart are the majority.
They are there for other stuff and look at rings, She says I like this one and he goes back and buys it later.
Everyone is happy!

This surprises me. My daughter is of the age where many of her friends have recently gotten married or are engaged and I don't think any of them has said that they bought their ER at Walmart. Most go to either a family jeweler or a B & M local jeweler or someplace like Jared's or Kay's. A few buy online, but not many.

 

[nala]

This surprises me. My daughter is of the age where many of her friends have recently gotten married or are engaged and I don't think any of them has said that they bought their ER at Walmart. Most go to either a family jeweler or a B & M local jeweler or someplace like Jared's or Kay's. A few buy online, but not many.

Plus one.

 

[MrsBlue]

So if you had a lab diamond studded gown, would anyone still want a lab ring? Like. Do people opt for swarovski crystal engagement rings?

I personally would not buy a man made anything for an e-ring but I would happily buy other lab pieces. I'm guessing that most people who have been on ps for a long time have similar thoughts about wanting earth mined stones for their e-rings but I'm not sure that we represent the majority of customers. Tons of people wear swarovski jewelry. I'm looking forward to the possibility of having diamond sandals and my own scepter someday

 

[Karl_K]

This surprises me. My daughter is of the age where many of her friends have recently gotten married or are engaged and I don't think any of them has said that they bought their ER at Walmart. Most go to either a family jeweler or a B & M local jeweler or someplace like Jared's or Kay's. A few buy online, but not many.

I am not surprised, it varies a lot by area and social circle.

 

[Ibrakeforpossums]

Karl, I'm wondering f your observation isn't age and responsibility related. If you have children and expenses and other obligations, a B & M priced ring seems irresponsible compared to WalMart. I find this laudable, there's time to upgrade.

 

[0515vision]

There has been a steady flow of gentlemen in the lab forum who have asked for and received gracious help in choosing their lab diamond for e-rings.

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

There has been a steady flow of gentlemen in the lab forum who have asked for and received gracious help in choosing their lab diamond for e-rings.

Yes, that is natural. Boys like hi-tech.
Some questions:
1. have they all honestly told their betroved that the diamond is manufactured?
2. is the percentage of accepted engagements as high with a lab diamond as with a natural diamond?
3. when that 3ct that cost $10k is seen advertised for less than a 1/10th - will they both be happy?

 

[nojs]

This may come as a shock in this forum, but I currently wear a CZ sterling silver ring as my engagement/wedding ring. It is a very nice looking ring with a 6 mm CZ with a delicate halo. I have an actual platinum and (natural) diamond e-ring/wedding set, but that sits in the jewellery box. I like wearing the fake ring since it is light weight and I don't have to worry about losing it.

I have been wearing this ring for 3 years now. No one has ever asked if it is "real". If someone would have asked, I would have told them the truth. Do people assume it is real? They probably do, since both me and my husband are very well off.

Why don't I get a lab diamond in similar design instead? I just can't justify the cost. This current ring was dirt cheap and that is the reason I enjoy wearing it worry free.

So: jewellery is meant to be enjoyed and is mostly enjoyed aesthetically. A pretty shiny thing is just that. I love diamonds as much as anyone here and own several loose (natural) diamonds just for the fun of it. Does this stop me from enjoying a fake ring? No

 

[Texas Leaguer]

I disagree somewhat with Garry in that I believe LGD will eventually stabilize at a place where it has a welcome home in the fine jewelry industry.

Will the price of LGD continue to fall to a level close to production cost? That's the way technology works, so yes.
.
And will technology advances and competition reduce that cost significantly from where it is today? That's the way technology works.

But clean, white, well cut diamonds will make fine jewelry more visually appealing than ever before. It will be hard for manufacturers to justify making commercial jewelry (with precious metals), using commercial grade natural diamonds when labs are so much cheaper and prettier. The rarity factor or emotional attachment on the part of the consumer is not the major driver of sales in the fashion realm.

The bridal realm will not be as affected by these trends, but there is now and will continue to be a bifurcated market there too, though still evolving.

LGD has changed the diamond and jewelry market forever, and from a consumer's perspective at least, for the better. Prettier diamond jewelry may equate to more demand for diamond jewelry, which will also benefit demand for natural diamond.

We are all quite lucky to be witnessing in real time this fascinating evolution take place!

 

[0-0-0]

What I hope to see with the middlemen getting cut out is much nicer and more variety of cuts in both lab and natural diamonds. That’s one way for manufacturers and vendors to differentiate themselves and maintain higher margins.

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

This may come as a shock in this forum, but I currently wear a CZ sterling silver ring as my engagement/wedding ring. It is a very nice looking ring with a 6 mm CZ with a delicate halo. I have an actual platinum and (natural) diamond e-ring/wedding set, but that sits in the jewellery box. I like wearing the fake ring since it is light weight and I don't have to worry about losing it.

I have been wearing this ring for 3 years now. No one has ever asked if it is "real". If someone would have asked, I would have told them the truth. Do people assume it is real? They probably do, since both me and my husband are very well off.

Why don't I get a lab diamond in similar design instead? I just can't justify the cost. This current ring was dirt cheap and that is the reason I enjoy wearing it worry free.

So: jewellery is meant to be enjoyed and is mostly enjoyed aesthetically. A pretty shiny thing is just that. I love diamonds as much as anyone here and own several loose (natural) diamonds just for the fun of it. Does this stop me from enjoying a fake ring? No

I love that. Not meant to say this but my Vera is a bit the same.

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

What I hope to see with the middlemen getting cut out is much nicer and more variety of cuts in both lab and natural diamonds. That’s one way for manufacturers and vendors to differentiate themselves and maintain higher margins.

The search filters always stop that creativity

 

[Godrick]

So - a question. With all of this information, as I navigate wanting to trade in my current natural diamond for a different cut/slightly larger stone, will I ever get a decent trade-in for my ring? Or, should I be looking to buy something now when natural diamonds are low priced, and sell my current ring if/when demands rise again? I feel like it is almost the same issue in real estate - you want to sell at the top of the market, but not have to buy into that market! Any advice would be helpful. Thanks!

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

I disagree somewhat with Garry in that I believe LGD will eventually stabilize at a place where it has a welcome home in the fine jewelry industry.

Will the price of LGD continue to fall to a level close to production cost? That's the way technology works, so yes.
.
And will technology advances and competition reduce that cost significantly from where it is today? That's the way technology works.

But clean, white, well cut diamonds will make fine jewelry more visually appealing than ever before. It will be hard for manufacturers to justify making commercial jewelry (with precious metals), using commercial grade natural diamonds when labs are so much cheaper and prettier. The rarity factor or emotional attachment on the part of the consumer is not the major driver of sales in the fashion realm.

The bridal realm will not be as affected by these trends, but there is now and will continue to be a bifurcated market there too, though still evolving.

LGD has changed the diamond and jewelry market forever, and from a consumer's perspective at least, for the better. Prettier diamond jewelry may equate to more demand for diamond jewelry, which will also benefit demand for natural diamond.

We are all quite lucky to be witnessing in real time this fascinating evolution take place!

Actually Bryan we agree on these points.
Commercial grade diamonds, for those that don't know, are low to brownish colour included or flawed sold often in Maul stores.
Lab diamonds will take them out of the picture.
Add to this that almost all the commercial are cut way to deep where as most CVD larger stones are cut shallow the way I want all naturals to be performing.
The nett effect is many mines will close for lack of a near gem market.
Quality natural diamonds will be rarer and the expectation of more beautiful diamonds fostered by labs will increase demand for special occasion diamonds.

 

[0-0-0]

So - a question. With all of this information, as I navigate wanting to trade in my current natural diamond for a different cut/slightly larger stone, will I ever get a decent trade-in for my ring? Or, should I be looking to buy something now when natural diamonds are low priced, and sell my current ring if/when demands rise again? I feel like it is almost the same issue in real estate - you want to sell at the top of the market, but not have to buy into that market! Any advice would be helpful. Thanks!

IMO as in the case of the real estate market, as long as it’s within budget, I think you should buy when you see something you really want to own long term. Trying to time the market risk losing out on what you really like, especially if it’s rare in the market. If you bought what you really like within budget, does it change your enjoyment of what you bought if prices drop later on?

 

[elle_chris]

If you bought what you really like within budget change your enjoyment of what you bought if prices drop later on?

Yes and no. As in with my car, I still love driving it but at the same time I'm extremely annoyed at how quick it depreciated. If I needed to sell it now, I'd lose most of my money.
The car is less than a year old, and has under 10k miles. Still the most I could get today would be less than 30%. So yeah, that definitely kills some of the joy.

My house on the other hand is worth about 5x more than what I paid 8 years ago.

 

[Rockdiamond]

Another interesting discussion.
Here’s something to think about…..
In 2015 ( just picking a year) say the natural engagement ring market was $15bil ( again , just picking a number for the sake of discussion)
Say the lab engagement ring market was 1mil.
In 2023 likely the lab market hits 1billion. And naturals are 5 billion.
I don’t know the actual numbers but the inescapable fact is that the natural diamond market has lost a significant chunk of market share. And it’s not coming back.
The natural market will continue for the foreseeable future IMO but at a much diminished dollar volume.
When I started selling diamonds online back in 1999, I could see how the wholesale market was going to take a hit.
But labs lowering overall volume of dollars is much worse for jewelry sellers in general.

For me the bottom line is that mass produced jewelry lacks something that people will continue to find value in. Even if KMart sells a 14kt ring with a 2ct Lab diamond for $300….. companies that produce very special diamond rings will be able to sell a 2ct for $3000. And it will be worth it to many buyers.
But as my point above- these same sellers used to sell their 2ct rings for $30k. That’s gotta come from somewhere. Hold on tight. I’m spite of all the predictions, who knows where this goes?

 

[Lookinagain]

Yes and no. As in with my car, I still love driving it but at the same time I'm extremely annoyed at how quick it depreciated. If I needed to sell it now, I'd lose most of my money.
The car is less than a year old, and has under 10k miles. Still the most I could get today would be less than 30%. So yeah, that definitely kills some of the joy.

I understand, but I don't think most people expect cars to hold their value and understand that they depreciate the moment that you drive them off of the lot. So while your's may have depreciated much more than you expected, I assume you knew it would depreciate, and generally not hold it's value, or increase in value. And I think most of us understand that we can't sell pre-loved natural diamonds for what we paid, and expect about a 30% reduction.
But it seems that the expectation is that those who bought LGD early may see an even more drastic reduction and the question is if they had foreseen this? As long as you buy, enjoy, and have no expectation of getting your money back or at least 70% or so of it, I think most are comfortable with that. But it's the possibility of something going from $1000 to $100 that startles some folks.