Brexit win was surprise, so too may be Trump victory

[kenny]

Read the alarming similarities between Brexit and Trump.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/trump-win-election-brexit-right-wing-214359

 

[momhappy]

I thought you already congratulated "president" Clinton

I really don't see Trump winning, but I guess it wouldn't be a total shocker. I do feel like there is a fair amount of people who might vote for him, but won't admit it. I say this because I don't feel like I see as many campaign signs as I usually do.

 

[kenny]

I thought you already congratulated "president" Clinton

I really don't see Trump winning, but I guess it wouldn't be a total shocker. I do feel like there is a fair amount of people who might vote for him, but won't admit it. I say this because I don't feel like I see as many campaign signs as I usually do.

Well, if SNL introduces her as "President Clinton" what else do you need?

Yeah, won't that be just great to have the first American president so embarrassing that only 3.1% of his voters will admit it?

I'm positive some here on PS are voting for him, but would never admit it.
IIRC only Heyjoe has admitted it ... and he's vanished.
And I suspect those who have avoided Hangout recently or complain about political threads are more likely to vote Trump.

 

[Garnetgirl]

Food for thought:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/

Nobody knows for certain who will win on Nov. 8 — but one man is pretty sure: Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election since 1984.
When we sat down in May, he explained how he comes to a decision. Lichtman's prediction isn't based on horse-race polls, shifting demographics or his own political opinions. Rather, he uses a system of true/false statements he calls the "Keys to the White House" to determine his predicted winner.

And this year, he says, Donald Trump is the favorite to win.

 

[momhappy]

I thought you already congratulated "president" Clinton

I really don't see Trump winning, but I guess it wouldn't be a total shocker. I do feel like there is a fair amount of people who might vote for him, but won't admit it. I say this because I don't feel like I see as many campaign signs as I usually do.

Well, if SNL introduces her as "President Clinton" what else do you need?

Yeah, won't that be just great to have the first American president so embarrassing that only 3.1% of his voters will admit it?

I'm positive some here on PS are voting for him, but would never admit it.
IIRC only Heyjoe has admitted it ... and he's vanished.
And I suspect those who have avoided Hangout recently or complain about political threads are more likely to vote Trump.

I will be voting in my state elections, so it won't be a total loss for me. It feels odd not to vote for a president, but Im comfortable that I'm making the choice that works for me. I suspect there are others like me, who just can't vote for either candidate.

 

[monarch64]

Food for thought:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/

Nobody knows for certain who will win on Nov. 8 — but one man is pretty sure: Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election since 1984.
When we sat down in May, he explained how he comes to a decision. Lichtman's prediction isn't based on horse-race polls, shifting demographics or his own political opinions. Rather, he uses a system of true/false statements he calls the "Keys to the White House" to determine his predicted winner.

And this year, he says, Donald Trump is the favorite to win.

He doesn't say that. The author of the article says that. The keys could point to a Republican win. He also clearly points out the myriad ways DT is unlike any other candidate and could certainly blow his entire theory, proven as it may have been in years past.

 

[BeekeeperBetty]

The Brexit polls were very close. The Presidential polls aren't close at all, so you can't compare Brexit to our election.

I think the only real question now is how much of a margin Sec Clinton wins by. Some Republican commentators say she may win 400 electorate votes. The GOP is looking to lose the Senate, and the House is in jeopardy as well. This election is a disaster for the GOP. Hopefully, they will end up stronger in the future. Despite the fact that I'm a liberal, we need a 2 party system as part of our checks and balances, and having one party with too much power should concern us all.

 

[ksinger]

There's a new “silent majority,” and it's voting for Hillary Clinton
Trump voters and Bernie Bros get all the press, but it’s Hillary voters who are going to win.
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/19/13288594/new-silent-majority

 

[ksinger]

The Brexit polls were very close. The Presidential polls aren't close at all, so you can't compare Brexit to our election.

I think the only real question now is how much of a margin Sec Clinton wins by. Some Republican commentators say she may win 400 electorate votes. The GOP is looking to lose the Senate, and the House is in jeopardy as well. This election is a disaster for the GOP. Hopefully, they will end up stronger in the future. Despite the fact that I'm a liberal, we need a 2 party system as part of our checks and balances, and having one party with too much power should concern us all.

Well, 400 seems a mite high to me, but most of the serious pollsters regardless of how they lean, are saying Clinton is the likely winner - Silver of course, Larry Sabato, Charlie Cook. Even RealClearPolitics is saying Clinton will win.

I'm with you on needing 2 strong parties. But the Republicans, if they want to survive in any meaningful way, are finally going to have to ditch the Teahadi Wing. It will be interesting to see how the House shakes out, how many they lose (a Democratically controlled House is a real long shot), and if Ryan will decide to start being a statesman and get things done by ditching the Hastert Rule.

 

[BeekeeperBetty]

I think 400 is a stretch, too. The new polls out of Texas are pretty shocking, though. I lived in Texas for a while, and I think it's just crazy. Even Georgia and Utah may be in play.

I wonder if the GOP is going to institute some rules for their next primary that is similar to the super delegate system the Democrats have in place, which was put in place for a similar reason.

I'm not sure how they are going to disavow their fanatical base going forward. They have the alt right news egging them on and giving them a loud voice, and I have no idea how they are going to shut that down and regain their respectability.

 

[Dancing Fire]

I'm positive some here on PS are voting for him, but would never admit it.
IIRC only Heyjoe has admitted it ... and he's vanished.
And I suspect those who have avoided Hangout recently or complain about political threads are more likely to vote Trump.

The last count was 9.

 

[kenny]

I'm positive some here on PS are voting for him, but would never admit it.
IIRC only Heyjoe has admitted it ... and he's vanished.
And I suspect those who have avoided Hangout recently or complain about political threads are more likely to vote Trump.

The last count was 9.

Really?
I must have missed that.
Please post the thread, or threads in which 9 PS members stated they are voting for Trump.

Was this an anonymous poll?

 

[arkieb1]

I think I pointed this out to everyone months ago, people are sick of the status quo around the world and want new outcomes, but they aren't sure how to achieve them..... worldwide terror threats have made people scared and insular, and they need to feel they are somehow protecting themselves against the perceived "other" that makes them feel threatened.....

Many of the Trump supporters can't see that the instability of him being elected would in itself cause your stock market to go into free fall and massive global uncertainty bordering on panic. They can't see the implications of how much worse electing him could turn out to be for your economy in general..... I fear there could be many more people they are not expecting voting for Trump that are not openly admitting it.

 

[ksinger]

I think I pointed this out to everyone months ago, people are sick of the status quo around the world and want new outcomes, but they aren't sure how to achieve them..... worldwide terror threats have made people scared and insular, and they need to feel they are somehow protecting themselves against the perceived "other" that makes them feel threatened.....

Many of the Trump supporters can't see that the instability of him being elected would in itself cause your stock market to go into free fall and massive global uncertainty bordering on panic. They can't see the implications of how much worse electing him could turn out to be for your economy in general..... I fear there could be many more people they are not expecting voting for Trump that are not openly admitting it.

I would fear that more if the polls were not so numerous and so much better methodologically these days.

We have several poll aggregators here, who have openly acknowledged "leanings", either liberal or conservative - Nate Silver and his site lean left, Charlie Cook leans right, I'm not sure how Larry Sabato sees the world, and RealClearPolitics, which does poll aggregating along with news aggregating, definitely leans right. That said, especially the first 3 have reputations for accuracy that they are very protective of, and they are very competitive with each other, meaning they can't afford to be sloppy or ideologically driven to get a particular outcome. Each of them uses his own proprietary statistical models to project who will win. All of them are dovetailing now, pointing to a win for Clinton.

So yes, an upset is always possible, but when both sides of the political spectrum are getting similar numbers over and over and over (and they don't all aggregate the same polls), I feel pretty confident that the situation is shaping up as they indicate.

So, with all that in mind, compare today to 1948. An analysis that shows why Trump very likely ain't Truman.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-trump-probably-wont-be-the-next-dewey-defeats-truman/

 

[Garnetgirl]

Food for thought:

<span class="skimlinks-unlinked">https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly</span>/

Nobody knows for certain who will win on Nov. 8 — but one man is pretty sure: Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election since 1984.
When we sat down in May, he explained how he comes to a decision. Lichtman's prediction isn't based on horse-race polls, shifting demographics or his own political opinions. Rather, he uses a system of true/false statements he calls the "Keys to the White House" to determine his predicted winner.

And this year, he says, Donald Trump is the favorite to win.

He doesn't say that. The author of the article says that. The keys could point to a Republican win. He also clearly points out the myriad ways DT is unlike any other candidate and could certainly blow his entire theory, proven as it may have been in years past.

One thing for sure - "it ain't over till it's over"

 

[Dancing Fire]

I'm positive some here on PS are voting for him, but would never admit it.
IIRC only Heyjoe has admitted it ... and he's vanished.
And I suspect those who have avoided Hangout recently or complain about political threads are more likely to vote Trump.

The last count was 9.

Really?
I must have missed that.
Please post the thread, or threads in which 9 PS members stated they are voting for Trump.

Was this an anonymous poll?

No, I started a new poll last night. Ooops, I meant there are 9 conservative PSer.

 

[kenny]

Thanks, DF.