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2010 Rapaport State of the Diamond Industry: New Opportuniti

John P

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"The Diamond Decade: New Opportunities" was the title of Martin Rapaport's 2010 state of the diamond industry overview. His presentation covered many interwoven topics. For those interested here is a synopsis of his far-reaching comments and observations.

IMG_5546-600.jpg
 

John P

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THE NEW REALITY

Rapaport said we are not experiencing a world crisis. Rather, we are in a new unstable reality. He attributed this to a generational shift which goes far beyond our domestic economy. That shift involves changing economic, social, political and demographic values on a worldwide scale. The average age of people in India is only 25 and they have a population of 1.4 billion people. Rapaport likened the changes in social consciousness occurring there to 1960s America, but on a scale far more vast.

Globalization is happening at a ferocious rate. India and China are driving the economy as we come out of this recession. Africa is the new India. Europe is slowly becoming Islamic. Such changes are altering the way people think. The election of Obama and his popularity around the world are a good illustration of such shifts in thinking; people are looking at the old ways and saying there are new ways. "Obama-ism" reflects change, the new world and the iPad generation.

Around the world the values of our urban modern society are becoming adaptive and absorbing new cultures. This influences style, fashion and social values - and diamonds fit into the rubric of the world.

GLOBAL ECONOMICS

Countries which used to supply others are now home to a new generation of consumers. Wealth continues to shift to India and China, and these places are teeming with diamond consumers. There are 20-30 million new luxury consumers in India alone. This shift in wealth was clearly evidenced by attendees at the JCK show from China and India coming there to buy - not supply - to buy.

From a global perspective the US is weak. A domestic seller''s competition is not just across the street anymore. The jeweler in NY may want an H VS1 but someone in India or China can pay a better price, so he''ll get it. This happened before in a 1990s boom in the far east; there was a sudden absence of high clarity goods in the US market and jewelers here started selling more SI goods than ever before. With steady rise in foreign demand for rough and polished goods competition will continue to increase. China is already the second-largest consumer of diamonds worldwide, with millions of new consumers on the horizon.

Resource warfare is coming. People will have to fight to get the resources they want. The USA is fortunate because our population is small compared to some of the other giants. Currency may be the weapon of choice in this resource war. Imagine what happens when the Chinese RMB goes up; they will not just be able to buy diamonds because of their growing economy but also because their currency is strong.

For now the world is still trying to sell to the USA but the USA is not buying. So it will become natural for market attention to be drawn to India and China where they will buy.

DOMESTIC ECONOMICS

Rapaport said that the US Economy is stabilizing and the worst may be over. Even so, the stock market was jolted last Friday and the US is feeling Europe''s current pain. We''re not through the recession but we are coming out of it. Consumers still want diamonds but affordability remains a key concern. Global diamond prices continue to climb. So does the price of gold.

US Real Estate, the S&P500 and Oil Prices have all risen. US retail sales are also up, but not where they were, and unemployment continues to create a drag. In the new reality our economy can’t give everyone a job and older people who have lost their jobs can’t get retrained. The baby boomer generation is logically frightened by this. Many have lost some or all of their life''s savings. People don''t want to gamble in the current market but they still gamble because that''s how you build your portfolio.

The issues of inflation and interest rates stand before us. The US will inevitably have to cope with the world economy and that means higher interest rate since the US has kept interest rates artificially low. Rapaport said that everybody blames the banks, but it was the US government keeping rates down so everyone could buy a house and tons of "stuff" - so that China could become capitalist by supplying us. We made China rich, he said: We bought them off so we wouldn’t have a cold war. Now our economy is as artificial as when DeBeers controlled 85% of diamonds. We''re in a bubble and when money costs money that bubble is going to pop.

At present it''s still easy for banks to give loans to manufacturers who extend memo to jewelers. When interest rates rise it will change the game. Rapaport believes a 10% interest rate is not unthinkable and asked jewelers how they plan to live in a world without memo. You can''t keep running your business the old way, he urged. You must think about how to deal with higher interest rates.

REACHING CONSUMERS

We experienced this recession together and it''s as-if our country is in group therapy. There is a lot of blame being voiced and it affects the way people feel about things. Wealth uncertainty and unemployment undermine confidence and influence the public attitude. Diamond consumers went through the recession and experienced these emotions. While the younger generation is more resilient everyone has been influenced by recent experiences.

Strategic positioning has become more important for diamond sellers than skill sets, inventory or salesmanship. What you have to be thinking about is not just your showcases, salesmen and stock, Rapaport said. You must also be asking “Do I have an iPad? Am I part of the changing world? Am I cool?" This is not about price competition: Blue Nile has not put Tiffany''s out of business for the same reason everyone doesn''t eat at McDonald''s every day, nor do they eat at Valentino''s every day: People want different things. Added value and social responsibility are important.

If you are a retailer you must give added services. Educated consumers are your best customers, but not if you are teaching the wrong things. We teach about percentages and fluorescence but don''t teach reasons for price differences. Rapaport said that if you know what you''re doing and add value you should not fear the internet. He urges jewelers to figure out what you do and charge a fair price for it. You don’t make money because people don’t know prices, you make it because people say this is a good value and I like this experience. What do your customers want, need and feel? How do you feel about your customer? Talk to them. Relate to them. It’s about them not you.

The young generation is more interested in “we” than me. Social responsibility is a key aspect of our identity in what we are doing and providing to customers. If we lack this we’re not going to make a living because incorporated into the diamond dream is the concept of goodness: It is not ok to walk into a store in LA, kill the people and sell the diamonds…so it is not ok to sell diamonds from Zimbabwe.

THE KIMBERLEY PROCESS

Rapaport strongly denounced the Kimberley Process in its current form. Prominent organizations that thanked him earlier in the week for helping make the topic visible were vocally criticized in his tirade against the present gridlock. "Conflict Diamonds" is an outdated and misleading phrase which doesn''t address today''s issues in Zimbabwe and the Congo. Our government and industry leaders have been unable to influence change and we must take action.

The artisanal digger in Africa is as much a part of the industry as anyone sitting in the room. Rapaport appealed to all present to take responsibility for their portion of the chain. You must know your supplier; we can’t solve the problem unless you know the cutter and mine. Nor can we turn only to "conflict free" sources - it''s not right to starve the people in Zimbabwe so BHP Canada can make a few extra bucks. The real issue is what do we do to alleviate poverty in the mining sectors. Those problems are not going away and when CNN goes into the Congo and films this it will injure us.

In response to questions about his strong statements Rapaport promoted his group''s conference on Fair Trade Jewelery that would be taking place later in the afternoon. [Rapaport''s Fair Trade Jewelery Conference covered separately]

THE ULTIMATE LUXURY ITEM

In this economic climate the ultimate luxury item is security. People are afraid. Unemployment is up. Some folks have lost their life savings and the future is uncertain. Marriage rates are going up because people are afraid and don''t want to be alone. They want security. They want to know their future will be ok. As such, a diamond is the ultimate luxury item because it incorporates both emotional and financial security. Are we selling this, Rapaport asked, or are we selling the depth and table?

The concept also transcends economy. For women in India and China a diamond also means those things; financial and emotional security. India and China brides did not just get a diamond, they got a man. India and China grooms see diamonds as a financial store of value since they''re redeemable and don''t set off metal detectors.

The future of the diamond industry is based on our ability to marry the ideas of financial and emotional security. Rapaport believes diamonds are the best product in the universe: Poor people have them and rich people want them. There should be a synergy of transferred wealth from the consumer all the way to the artisanal miner. Diamonds should improve the lives of everyone they touch.

*

Mr. Rapaport is a dynamic and engaging speaker. His sessions are always thought-provoking and reliably touch-on far more than just the B2B/B2C diamond pipelines.

rapaport-jck-2010-2.jpg
 

diagem

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Date: 6/9/2010 4:41:53 PM
Author:John Pollard
''The Diamond Decade: New Opportunities'' was the title of Martin Rapaport''s 2010 state of the diamond industry overview. His presentation covered many interwoven topics. For those interested here is a synopsis of his far-reaching comments and observations.
Thank you John, well covered as I feel (the pics.) as if I was in the auditorium listening.
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Funny dude this Rapaport...
11.gif
 

WinkHPD

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John,

Thank you for your ever so complete covering of an hours presentation!

A few comments as an observer.

RE: Prominent organizations that thanked him earlier in the week for helping make the topic visible were vocally criticized in his tirade against the present gridlock.

LOL, a mild understatement. He said it loud and he said it proud and some of the members of said organizations walked out.

RE: Nor can we turn only to "conflict free" sources - it''s not right to starve the people in Zimbabwe so BHP Canada can make a few extra bucks. The real issue is what do we do to alleviate poverty in the mining sectors.

This is the baby that I hope does not get thrown out with the bathwater! As bad as it can be right now, and it MUST get better if we are to be a viable industry that can hold its head high, it is better than it would be if there were not diamonds for them to dig. It is easy for us here in the States to loose sight of this in our rush to make it right, right now. This will take time, and the time must be taken to do it properly, lest we create something even worse. Kimberly worked within the parameters it was given. Now it is time to expand those parameters and to do further good works!

Great job John, I hope this gets read and discussed, it is a worthy topic!

Wink
 

Karl_K

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Sir John,
You travel the world and the US a lot visiting jewelery stores and talking to people in the industry from all over.
What is your opinion on some of his comments?
 

Diamond Explorer

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I was only in town a couple days this year for the show, and missed Mr. Rapaport's speech. Thanks for the overview, its seems like he is definitely touching on all the important issues facing our trade. He is right on the money in a lot of ways.
 

John P

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Date: 6/10/2010 12:54:57 PM
Author: Karl_K

Sir John,

You travel the world and the US a lot visiting jewelery stores and talking to people in the industry from all over.
What is your opinion on some of his comments?
Good question. I think Mr. Rapaport's organization is peerless in the gathering of broad industry information, but I think they're somewhat entrenched in traditional channels.

His view of the world economy has been portentous, especially transfer of wealth to China and India. Credit him for accurately predicting details in those emerging markets as early as 2005. After spending time in China I believe some of his data and predictions may even be conservative. He was dead-on about Indian attendees coming to JCK this year as buyers rather than suppliers and he is not the first person to compare aspects of the social mood there and in China to the US when our economy was booming. I'll be in those countries again before the end of 2011 and look forward to the experiences.

I think the domestic pinch he predicts - where a jeweler in NY wants XYZ polished but someone in India or China can pay a better price - will appear in the foreign rough market first (more discussion in this active thread). That shouldn't be surprising, since faster adaptation in B2B sectors is logical. Meanwhile consumer supply in young markets will undergo resets, adjustments and seasonal trends. Stabilization may take years and I think change to existing supply lines isn't as imminent as Rapaport suggests. Still, I wouldn't put off buying a large or unique polished piece at a good price if you can snag it now: High-value one-ofs will be the first candidates for global rerouting.

His overview on the US climate came off pretty grim, but that may be to strengthen his positioning of diamonds as the ultimate emotional and financial luxury item. I agree with what he's saying when it comes to wealth uncertainty but I'm in stores all around the country regularly, and there is excited, enthusiastic buying taking place. Logically there's limited affordability in a recession, but when people believe they're getting quality and value they're not afraid to reach for their wallets. Those who deal in quality are doing ok. One thing he hits spot-on is the need to add value and educate consumers the right way if you wish to eliminate bottom-line price competition. He has been delivering that important message for years - though it reflects the showroom jeweler's reality far more than the internet seller's.

In that sense I go away each year feeling he missed a small but cutting-edge opportunity to educate his audience. Rapaport's internet references are typically limited to BN. For years he has pointed out that most consumers are doing research on the internet, but has not followed-up with strategies for dealers to learn and adapt. He suggests getting a website, an iPad, knowing your competition (BN), etc... but he has not mentioned the presence of consumer or trade e-sources like Pricescope or Polygon. I understand that PS is barely known in the industry-at-large but it's a rich resource available to anyone, anywhere in the world, free of charge.

I have long agreed with his views on the practice of memo. I'm also firmly in his camp when it comes to social responsibility and awareness. Candidly, I think he used this year's platform to shake people up and generate interest in his Fair Trade Jewelery initiative - did anyone else think the blood-red backdrop he prepared before staging his tirade was a giveaway? To his credit that shakeup was effective. He made a powerful impression and I personally feel the ends will justify his impression of Thespis if some of the current stakeholder gridlock is broken in the interest of social responsibility.

No doubt there are many who do not agree with his world view. And while his broad strokes cannot cover every detail I find him a well-traveled man of the world who is not afraid to bring forward important issues with passion.
 

Rockit

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Interesting stuff. Thank you for sharing the overview and your thoughts.
 

diagem

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Date: 6/10/2010 11:07:40 PM
Author: John Pollard

Date: 6/10/2010 12:54:57 PM
Author: Karl_K

Sir John,

You travel the world and the US a lot visiting jewelery stores and talking to people in the industry from all over.
What is your opinion on some of his comments?
Good question. I think Mr. Rapaport''s organization is peerless in the gathering of broad industry information, but I think they''re somewhat entrenched in traditional channels.

Fully agree on that one..., one wonders sometimes what Rap bases his price-list on?? You say traditional, I say primitive
11.gif
.


His view of the world economy has been portentous, especially transfer of wealth to China and India. Credit him for accurately predicting details in those emerging markets as early as 2005. After spending time in China I believe some of his data and predictions may even be conservative. He was dead-on about Indian attendees coming to JCK this year as buyers rather than suppliers and he is not the first person to compare aspects of the social mood there and in China to the US when our economy was booming. I''ll be in those countries again before the end of 2011 and look forward to the experiences.

I think the domestic pinch he predicts - where a jeweler in NY wants XYZ polished but someone in India or China can pay a better price - will appear in the foreign rough market first (more discussion in this active thread). That shouldn''t be surprising, since faster adaptation in B2B sectors is logical. Meanwhile consumer supply in young markets will undergo resets, adjustments and seasonal trends. Stabilization may take years and I think change to existing supply lines isn''t as imminent as Rapaport suggests. Still, I wouldn''t put off buying a large or unique polished piece at a good price if you can snag it now: High-value one-ofs will be the first candidates for global rerouting.

His overview on the US climate came off pretty grim, but that may be to strengthen his positioning of diamonds as the ultimate emotional and financial luxury item. I agree with what he''s saying when it comes to wealth uncertainty but I''m in stores all around the country regularly, and there is excited, enthusiastic buying taking place. Logically there''s limited affordability in a recession, but when people believe they''re getting quality and value they''re not afraid to reach for their wallets. Those who deal in quality are doing ok. One thing he hits spot-on is the need to add value and educate consumers the right way if you wish to eliminate bottom-line price competition. He has been delivering that important message for years - though it reflects the showroom jeweler''s reality far more than the internet seller''s.

In that sense I go away each year feeling he missed a small but cutting-edge opportunity to educate his audience. Rapaport''s internet references are typically limited to BN.

And let not forget "Rapnet"
2.gif
..., see John..., I see it as lack of knowledge! He doensn miss because he (and surprisingly the advisors surrounding Rap) doesnt know of its existence..., I believe as far as he is concerned a GIA 3X is the ultimate cutting edge (well, maybe some non-cutting edge proprietors branded cuts
11.gif
).


For years he has pointed out that most consumers are doing research on the internet, but has not followed-up with strategies for dealers to learn and adapt. He suggests getting a website, an iPad, knowing your competition (BN), etc... but he has not mentioned the presence of consumer or trade e-sources like Pricescope or Polygon. I understand that PS is barely known in the industry-at-large but it''s a rich resource available to anyone, anywhere in the world, free of charge.

IMO, the majority of industry members think "Internet consumer research" is simply surfing through a few jewelers websites (BN etc...) comparing prices &.....?
Most industry pro''s ( I know of who are not regular PS contributors ) that are knowledgeable of PriceScope either dont have the patience to read or dont believe they can be educated or gain anything from consumers showing and/or voicing their interests & concerns.
7.gif
.


I have long agreed with his views on the practice of memo. I''m also firmly in his camp when it comes to social responsibility and awareness. Candidly, I think he used this year''s platform to shake people up and generate interest in his Fair Trade Jewelery initiative - did anyone else think the blood-red backdrop he prepared before staging his tirade was a giveaway? To his credit that shakeup was effective. He made a powerful impression and I personally feel the ends will justify his impression of Thespis if some of the current stakeholder gridlock is broken in the interest of social responsibility.

No doubt there are many who do not agree with his world view. And while his broad strokes cannot cover every detail I find him a well-traveled man of the world who is not afraid to bring forward important issues with passion.
I would just hope he would attempt to envision a bit further than the industry bubble borders! There is a whole jewelry world out there which is detached from that bubble.
Plenty of opportunities that are basically a must in these new and changing times.
 

John P

Ideal_Rock
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Date: 6/12/2010 1:05:29 PM
Author: DiaGem

Date: 6/10/2010 11:07:40 PM
Author: John Pollard

Date: 6/10/2010 12:54:57 PM
Author: Karl_K

Sir John,

You travel the world and the US a lot visiting jewelery stores and talking to people in the industry from all over.
What is your opinion on some of his comments?
Good question. I think Mr. Rapaport's organization is peerless in the gathering of broad industry information, but I think they're somewhat entrenched in traditional channels.

Fully agree on that one..., one wonders sometimes what Rap bases his price-list on?? You say traditional, I say primitive
11.gif
.
The price list question is raised each year, sometimes with vigor: "Rapaport you are the driver of high prices. You make the mines rich and us poor..." (2010)

Each time it comes up Rapaport explains that the RapNet pricelist is a real-time reflection of real prices offered by real suppliers using the service. Meanwhile, he says, the Rapaport Price List is something his group puts out "to let the world know where we see prices." They have their trusted sources - see "entrenched" from my prior post - and he says they adjust the list higher when they see those prices rising.

Many think this is a catch-22, since the trade-at-large raises in response to the list..."they adjust the list higher"...the trade-at-large raises in response to the list..."they adjust the list higher"...the trade-at-large raises in response to the list... ad nauseum.

Meanwhile in his annual talk he is exhorting people not to wish for higher prices: "If you don’t own a diamond mine why do you want higher prices? When prices go up your insurance goes up. You make 3% more but you sweat blood trying to sell. The whole idea of higher prices is not a great way to make a living so don’t hope for them."

So now you have people in the audience stewing because - right or wrong - they see Rapaport as the driver of high prices. Meanwhile Rapaport says higher prices are bad and is telling "them" that "they" are the ones raising prices. As someone who came from another industry it really is an odd little dance. I always get a fresh cup of coffee when I see it beginning.

Date: 6/12/2010 1:05:29 PM
Author: DiaGem

In that sense I go away each year feeling he missed a small but cutting-edge opportunity to educate his audience. Rapaport's internet references are typically limited to BN.

And let not forget 'Rapnet'
2.gif
..., see John..., I see it as lack of knowledge! He doensn miss because he (and surprisingly the advisors surrounding Rap) doesnt know of its existence...,
It's not a lack of awareness. Credit him for being a curious guy. I sat and gave him a tour of the old PS webinar system after a session where PS was mentioned in 2007. His son and I have made tentative plans to chat about what's happening on the internet several times over the years with no follow-up. Garry Holloway has had discussions and interviews with him and brings up PS. He knows about it but my opinion is that it's just not "big" enough in his world/his network to merit significant attention. In a statistical sense he's right - the entire internet is less than 10% of US business to begin with and in industry terms PS is a speck on the vast global radar - but I think the potency of PS in terms of how it could enrich individual members of his audience goes beyond simple statistics.


Date: 6/12/2010 1:05:29 PM
Author: DiaGem

IMO, the majority of industry members think 'Internet consumer research' is simply surfing through a few jewelers websites (BN etc...) comparing prices &.....? Most industry pro's ( I know of who are not regular PS contributors ) that are knowledgeable of PriceScope either dont have the patience to read or dont believe they can be educated or gain anything from consumers showing and/or voicing their interests & concerns.
7.gif
.

I would just hope he would attempt to envision a bit further than the industry bubble borders! There is a whole jewelry world out there which is detached from that bubble.
Plenty of opportunities that are basically a must in these new and changing times.
Well said.
 

diagem

Ideal_Rock
Trade
Joined
Oct 21, 2004
Messages
5,082
Date: 6/14/2010 11:46:52 AM
Author: John Pollard

Date: 6/12/2010 1:05:29 PM
Author: DiaGem


Date: 6/10/2010 11:07:40 PM
Author: John Pollard


Date: 6/10/2010 12:54:57 PM
Author: Karl_K

Sir John,

You travel the world and the US a lot visiting jewelery stores and talking to people in the industry from all over.
What is your opinion on some of his comments?
Good question. I think Mr. Rapaport''s organization is peerless in the gathering of broad industry information, but I think they''re somewhat entrenched in traditional channels.

Fully agree on that one..., one wonders sometimes what Rap bases his price-list on?? You say traditional, I say primitive
11.gif
.
The price list question is raised each year, sometimes with vigor: ''Rapaport you are the driver of high prices. You make the mines rich and us poor...'' (2010)

Each time it comes up Rapaport explains that the RapNet pricelist is a real-time reflection of real prices offered by real suppliers using the service. Meanwhile, he says, the Rapaport Price List is something his group puts out ''to let the world know where we see prices.'' They have their trusted sources - see ''entrenched'' from my prior post - and he says they adjust the list higher when they see those prices rising.

Rapnet are "offered" prices, we never know the actual close-dealing pricetag. And the "trusted sources" tagline is passe big time! The huge Rap discount/premium spreads are proof!

Many think this is a catch-22, since the trade-at-large raises in response to the list...''they adjust the list higher''...the trade-at-large raises in response to the list...''they adjust the list higher''...the trade-at-large raises in response to the list... ad nauseum.

Meanwhile in his annual talk he is exhorting people not to wish for higher prices: ''If you don’t own a diamond mine why do you want higher prices? When prices go up your insurance goes up. You make 3% more but you sweat blood trying to sell. The whole idea of higher prices is not a great way to make a living so don’t hope for them.''

So now you have people in the audience stewing because - right or wrong - they see Rapaport as the driver of high prices. Meanwhile Rapaport says higher prices are bad and is telling ''them'' that ''they'' are the ones raising prices. As someone who came from another industry it really is an odd little dance. I always get a fresh cup of coffee when I see it beginning. Which came first hen or egg?

Date: 6/12/2010 1:05:29 PM
Author: DiaGem


In that sense I go away each year feeling he missed a small but cutting-edge opportunity to educate his audience. Rapaport''s internet references are typically limited to BN.

And let not forget ''Rapnet''
2.gif
..., see John..., I see it as lack of knowledge! He doensn miss because he (and surprisingly the advisors surrounding Rap) doesnt know of its existence...,
It''s not a lack of awareness. Credit him for being a curious guy. I sat and gave him a tour of the old PS webinar system after a session where PS was mentioned in 2007. His son and I have made tentative plans to chat about what''s happening on the internet several times over the years with no follow-up. Garry Holloway has had discussions and interviews with him and brings up PS. He knows about it but my opinion is that it''s just not ''big'' enough in his world/his network to merit significant attention. In a statistical sense he''s right - the entire internet is less than 10% of US business to begin with and in industry terms PS is a speck on the vast global radar - but I think the potency of PS in terms of how it could enrich individual members of his audience goes beyond simple statistics.

Yes..., and I call it primitive. Everybody knows the Internet is only a small part of the overall picture..., but they also know it is basically the only path showing steady & significant growth..., PS is way too transparent for mainstream dealers! I believe PS would make a lot of industry members mad! Rap needs to sell info, transparency as regularly practiced on PS wont be welcomed info. Go figure
33.gif
.



Date: 6/12/2010 1:05:29 PM
Author: DiaGem

IMO, the majority of industry members think ''Internet consumer research'' is simply surfing through a few jewelers websites (BN etc...) comparing prices &.....? Most industry pro''s ( I know of who are not regular PS contributors ) that are knowledgeable of PriceScope either dont have the patience to read or dont believe they can be educated or gain anything from consumers showing and/or voicing their interests & concerns.
7.gif
.

I would just hope he would attempt to envision a bit further than the industry bubble borders! There is a whole jewelry world out there which is detached from that bubble.
Plenty of opportunities that are basically a must in these new and changing times.
Well said.
 
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