Lack of material

[Desertrose]

Thanks everyone for chiming in, especially our Trade members. I hope you know we really appreciate your experience and insight here on the forum!

As a hobbyist collector, I'm doing this for personal enjoyment, but there is always the thought in the back of my mind, will these gems retain value or even increase over time...on the other hand, as I have read in this forum many times, it's better not to approach gems as an investment as a lay person.

However even as a collector, just the lack of neon colors and real showstoppers except at very high prices ($1000/ct and up) makes the hobby not as much fun as it could be. If one had an unlimited budget that wouldn't be a problem, but most of us don't. In that case it takes time, patience, and a lot of luck to find the real treasures. Perhaps it is something in the "hunt" that is a motivating factor as well

I hope to hear more feedback after the Tucson show! I am going this year, but as a Tucson newbie I don't have a frame of reference to compare to previous years, let alone the decades of experience that some of our members bring.

 

[mochiko42]

I've spoken locally to a number of various Burmese traders and mine owners. Good rough is indeed getting scarce and top quality ones bypass the local market. Want Burmese Alexandrite? Go to Hong Kong. Not seen by local traders in years. Want icy lavender jadeite? Not available locally, sorry.

The China market is slowing down. Which has caused some traders to switch to another line of work here (car trading) that generates regular income. Concession owners are also keeping their stuff in storage and not selling in the depressed market, both locally and overseas.

I go to the HK gem shows (March, June, Sept, Nov) and still see a good range of different products in all qualities and quantities (the usual diamond, sapphire, emerald, ruby, tanzanite, paraiba, alex, cats eye, jade, pearls, and so on). But it seems that sales are somewhat slowing down, not as many visitors/buyers attending as before.

 

[Seaglow]

There are gemstones that cannot really make it to commercial mainstream from the get go due to scarcity, such as spinels and demantoids. Sometimes, one can get lucky when there is a strike or a new find from new sources, such as the Fanta Spessartites from Namibia in 1993 and Mahenge Spinels in 2007. For a time being these stones would be readily available, but surely it won't last so long as mines deplete. When supply starts to become scarce, then price would go up especially when demand is greater.

The top quality stones are there, some coming out from the vaults, some direct from the mines, but someone is snatching them up somewhere! For smaller scale traders, it becomes difficult if bigger players pay a premium to get the stones whether by placing a high bid at auctions or advancing money to the miners even before the stones come out of the ground.

The good paraibas are in Japan, the finest jades in China, and so on.

Additional info on affordable goods right now are:
Ethiopian Opals
Afghan Tourmalines
African Rubies
Thai Black Spinel
Thai Green Sapphire

Let's take the case of Ethiopian opals...the chocolate-bodied precious opals from Wollo was discovered in 2008 and another supply of precious opals in Gashena, still in Wollo, was discovered in 2013. Now supply is available easily at 3 carats up for solid opal with good flashes. The most beautiful opals and more durable solid opals with significantly lower cost than their Australian counterparts! Supply is good that these opals are even turned into beads! Once these become scarce, where can you find such opals that are so transparent with good flashes? 10 years from now what will the prices be? Up for sure unless there is a new strike.

 

[Barrett]

.
I quit buying and selling over 4 years ago(not diggin' though ), and I just recently started slowly getting back into the "game" with a few sales here and there, of hand dug crystals from my mine in Gwinnett.
I just bought my first parcel, in over 3 1/2-4 years, yesterday!! I have spent the last few months reacquainting myself, well trying to, with the market, material, and people that have come around in the last few years.
I am flabbergasted at the amount of people, especially younger ones, that now sell, or try to sell, gemstones, crystals, rough, wire wraps, etc.
It's overwhelming to see the amount of people who sell online now!!! I also have noticed the prices of many things have gone sky high, compared to 3-4 years ago when I handled them. Tourmaline rough and crystals are so ridiculously high now, it is out of my interest to even dabble in that area. Sigh
I can't find anymore good red beryl rough. The dealers who had appreciable stock and fair prices are long gone. Now it's a bunch of people asking crazy prices for them.
My old friend Jackson Crossroads amethyst is so much more pricey than all the years I bought and sold it.
Prices seem so high, but on the flipside, the quality of rough and crystals I have been seeing looks as good or better than what was around when I was selling and buying. An effect of the world wide web, maybe?

What happened to the market? Where did all these "kids" come from who now sell wire wraps, tourmalines, ets.?
Why didn't I buy bags of "mahenge rough" when TL and I first to note of it years ago??? Why is there seemingly more paraiba tourmalines for sale these days, than their was 4 years ago? Why can't TL learn to love aquamarine?

 

[pregcurious]

.
Why is there seemingly more paraiba tourmalines for sale these days, than their was 4 years ago?

I've noticed this also. I assume that pieces are coming out now that the price is sky high? I have been temped to buy, but the pieces tend to be small, and it's not a durable ring stone. Still, I am tempted...

 

[Desertrose]

So what type of parcel did you buy, Barrett? Did you get it at Tucson? If so, what's the status report for this year?

Why can't TL learn to love aquamarine?

I also have a hard time loving aquamarine. I'd be interested to hear your argument in favor of it?