will diamond prices come down due to a slowing U.S. economy?

[Dancing Fire]

especially the 2+ ct stones?

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

A slowing us economy is reducing the value of the US$ making all diamonds more expensive in uS$ as they are all mined and value added in higher cost currencies.
Demand in Asia and the oil rich middle east is driving up larger rarer sizes dramatically

 

[Pandora II]

New Bond Street, London had no shortage of customers this afternoon, and having perused the Sunday Times Rich List at length, the diamond boys are having a fine old time.

 

[strmrdr]

2+ ct not likely
The .5 to 1ct market could crash however.

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

Date: 5/10/2008 7:12:51 PM
Author: strmrdr
2+ ct not likely
The .5 to 1ct market could crash however.

in ''american goods'', yes - which is Zales / Walmart qualities.
However that comes at the same time that argyle has dropped back to around 1/4 of its supply.

So there are many factors

 

[Dancing Fire]

Date: 5/10/2008 5:15:43 PM
Author: Garry H (Cut Nut)
A slowing us economy is reducing the value of the US$ making all diamonds more expensive in uS$ as they are all mined and value added in higher cost currencies.
Demand in Asia and the oil rich middle east is driving up larger rarer sizes dramatically

the USD will strengthen if the Fed stop cutting interest rates.

 

[strmrdr]

Date: 5/10/2008 8:00:51 PM
Author: Garry H (Cut Nut)

Date: 5/10/2008 7:12:51 PM
Author: strmrdr
2+ ct not likely
The .5 to 1ct market could crash however.

in ''american goods'', yes - which is Zales / Walmart qualities.
However that comes at the same time that argyle has dropped back to around 1/4 of its supply.

So there are many factors

Im seeing a glut of .5 to 1ct diamonds showing up in pawn shops and for sale adds.
That keeps up they will crash.
In talking to them it has been very rare for them to get anything over .5 pawned and they had jewelers that bought them up, now the jewelers dont even want them.

 

[tradergirl]

I got a very nice .7 oval, E VS1 with a GIA cert for $475 this week from a private seller (very distressed one). I had it inspected too before I bought it.

 

[Gypsy]

Date: 5/10/2008 10:07:26 PM
Author: tradergirl
I got a very nice .7 oval, E VS1 with a GIA cert for $475 this week from a private seller (very distressed one). I had it inspected too before I bought it.

WOW.

 

[MichelleCarmen]

Date: 5/10/2008 10:28:57 PM
Author: Gypsy
WOW.

No doubt. I''ve been checking craig''s list to see if any great deals pop up, but am skeptical about meeting up w/someone and trying to authenticate the stone, etc., but it would be wonderful to find a great stone in an outdated setting that I could buy for cheap and remount. I''d love to find a $475 deal!!!

 

[tradergirl]

It came in a outdated engagement ring setting. I''m taking it to a jeweler tomorrow and having it reset in an east/west stacking ring. The stone is amazing, It is very pretty and has great fire.

 

[Paul-Antwerp]

Date: 5/10/2008 8:16:45 PM
Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 5/10/2008 5:15:43 PM
Author: Garry H (Cut Nut)
A slowing us economy is reducing the value of the US$ making all diamonds more expensive in uS$ as they are all mined and value added in higher cost currencies.
Demand in Asia and the oil rich middle east is driving up larger rarer sizes dramatically

the USD will strengthen if the Fed stop cutting interest rates.

In 2001, the USD was 0.90 for 1 Euro.
Now, it is 1.54 for 1 Euro, that is a devaluation of over 70%.

I do not have the exact figures of diamond prices over that period of time, but in Euro, prices have probably gone down for the majority of diamonds.

Even when the dollar will slightly rise, it will have little effect, compared to the huge devaluation already taken place.

All in all, even with the American market being the main consumer market for all diamonds, I am not sure whether it is the main market for +2Ct-stones. And the American economy has little effect on pricing.

What could have an effect? The rise in prices could be unsupported by a consumer market. It could be that dealers and traders, based upon knowledge about lowering supplies, are currently selling to eachother at ever increasing prices. This gives the impression of prices going up for the trade, but the reality might be that the consumers do not follow, and that would be a hard awakening for some. Now, this theory is also pure speculation, so do not take it as the truth from an insider. I simply do not know.

Live long,

 

[Skippy123]

Out of curiosity what is the approx % the US purchases in diamonds compared to other countries if I can ask that question??

 

[strmrdr]

Date: 5/11/2008 3:28:50 PM
Author: Skippy123
Out of curiosity what is the approx % the US purchases in diamonds compared to other countries if I can ask that question??

over half

 

[strmrdr]

This is the bad news right here:
In the first quarter of the year, the U.S. imported $4.91 billion of polished diamonds weighing 3.518 million carats, a 24.41 percent increase in value and 24.35 percent decrease in volume compared to the first quarter of 2007.

http://www.idexonline.com/portal_FullNews.asp?SID=&id=30270

Price up, weight down.
That means either more smaller diamonds are being sold or fewer diamonds selling for more are being sold.
Either way its not good news for the oulook on sales.

 

[strmrdr]

Where is the money moving towards:
Amazon
http://www.idexonline.com/portal_FullNews.asp?id=30251

Blue Nile
http://www.idexonline.com/portal_FullNews.asp?id=30253

If we had the numbers for the PS vendors I bet they would show solid growth also.

 

[WinkHPD]

Date: 5/11/2008 4:09:27 PM
Author: strmrdr
This is the bad news right here:

In the first quarter of the year, the U.S. imported $4.91 billion of polished diamonds weighing 3.518 million carats, a 24.41 percent increase in value and 24.35 percent decrease in volume compared to the first quarter of 2007.


http://www.idexonline.com/portal_FullNews.asp?SID=&id=30270


Price up, weight down.

That means either more smaller diamonds are being sold or fewer diamonds selling for more are being sold.

Either way its not good news for the oulook on sales.

Hard to say what percentage of that is quality cut and great looking diamonds and what part is the typical garbage that is sold in the mall.

Personally my diamond sales are way ahead of last year, and last year was the best by far that I ever had for diamonds. But I do not sell the typical mall type merchandise so I can make no general statements as to value and quality.

I think that like in all economies there will be those who fall and those who prosper. We are doing our personal best not to be one of those participating in the recession.

Wink

 

[diagem]

Date: 5/11/2008 4:09:27 PM
Author: strmrdr
This is the bad news right here:
In the first quarter of the year, the U.S. imported $4.91 billion of polished diamonds weighing 3.518 million carats, a 24.41 percent increase in value and 24.35 percent decrease in volume compared to the first quarter of 2007.

http://www.idexonline.com/portal_FullNews.asp?SID=&id=30270

Price up, weight down.
That means either more smaller diamonds are being sold or fewer diamonds selling for more are being sold.
Either way its not good news for the oulook on sales.

Here is the botom line "quote" and ....

"...In the first quarter of the year, the U.S. imported $4.91 billion of polished diamonds weighing 3.518 million carats, a 24.41 percent increase in value and 24.35 percent decrease in volume compared to the first quarter of 2007."


Means to me..., someone is stocking up on the higher-end Diamonds...

 

[diagem]

Date: 5/11/2008 11:35:18 PM
Author: DiaGem

Date: 5/11/2008 4:09:27 PM
Author: strmrdr
This is the bad news right here:
In the first quarter of the year, the U.S. imported $4.91 billion of polished diamonds weighing 3.518 million carats, a 24.41 percent increase in value and 24.35 percent decrease in volume compared to the first quarter of 2007.

http://www.idexonline.com/portal_FullNews.asp?SID=&id=30270

Price up, weight down.
That means either more smaller diamonds are being sold or fewer diamonds selling for more are being sold.
Either way its not good news for the oulook on sales.

Here is the botom line ''quote'' and ....

''...In the first quarter of the year, the U.S. imported $4.91 billion of polished diamonds weighing 3.518 million carats, a 24.41 percent increase in value and 24.35 percent decrease in volume compared to the first quarter of 2007.''


Means to me..., someone is stocking up on the higher-end Diamonds...

Some more significant proof:

http://www.idexonline.com/portal_FullNews.asp?SID=&id=30272

"U.S. Rough Trade Shows Shift to High End Goods


...the average value of the remaining goods shot up to $1,356 per carat during the month [March], this compared to an average of $262 in January and $282 in February..."

 

[partgypsy]

could this be partly attributed to the "pricescope effect"

?

 

[partgypsy]

ps- nice to see you again Dancing Fire

 

[chrono]

Look who''s back from the abyss! Welcome back DF.

 

[Splinter]

Interesting. Could people see diamonds as a more secure investment in turbulent economic times? Much like some move their money to gold and other precious metals?

All I know is the weak dollar makes my trip to the States dirt cheap.

...of course when the knock on effect really hits the UK it might not be as fun.

 

[WinkHPD]

Date: 5/12/2008 11:16:22 AM
Author: Splinter
Interesting. Could people see diamonds as a more secure investment in turbulent economic times? Much like some move their money to gold and other precious metals?

All I know is the weak dollar makes my trip to the States dirt cheap.

...of course when the knock on effect really hits the UK it might not be as fun.

Unless you are in the trade or have a dependable way to sell your diamonds for at least what you pay for them I strongly urge you NOT to consider investing in diamonds. They are not easily moved unless you wish to sell at a loss, not a good way to invest for the short term. Longer term they may be okay, but they will still be difficult to move in quantity and quickly for full market value for most people.

Wink

 

[oldminer]

Diamond prices due to tightness of desirable supplies combined with overseas buying strength and a lower US Dollar exchange rates will see prices rise for US consumers.

On the flip side of this are people in the USA who are now selling their gold and diamond jewelry to get what buyers are calling "record prices". In truth, the gold and platinum prices are quite high, but small diamonds in the jewelry have little value since the main market for melée is overseas. We don''t make much jewelry in the USA with small diamonds any more. Low color and imperfect diamonds often sold by mass marketers have very little resale value at any time, but with the buying of second hand merchandise so intense, the liquidation of value of relatively non-rare, commercial grade, diamonds is dismal.

So, better diamonds of large size or finer quality types are basically up in value at retail, but diamonds of less desirable nature have few willing buyers and they are bargain hunting or staying on the sidelines.