terrorists tried to kill the Queen

[strmrdr]

Though some people may be interested in this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/01/13/nqueen213.xml

 

[Rank Amateur]

One of these days they will succeed. It''s only a matter of time.

 

[perry]

Date: 1/14/2008 12:42:38 PM
Author: Rank Amateur
One of these days they will succeed. It's only a matter of time.

I'm not so sure of that.

There are basically 3 levels of threats:

Amateurs, but emotionally involved - which account for the vast majority of threats made to public officials and buildings/sites. These tend to be foiled by relatively simply measures.

Modestly sophisticated people or groups, but emotionally involved. These are harder to stop, but are usually discovered or stopped for areas of high security (such as heads of state, and key facilities). I tend to group most modern terrorist groups into this area. The reason so many of the Al Qaeda and similar groups fail is because they operate based personal support for their members from a large population and do not operate in strict secrecy.

Extremely skilled professionals; that are not emotionally involved. What follows is part speculation: but speculation based on certain information I do know:

Typically only do jobs for mid to high $$$,$$$, and may go into 7 or even 8 figures for key jobs. These people tend to operate with minimal other people involved and minimal other people needed for any kind of job support (and the support people may not even know what the job is; and if they do their ability to hold secrets is high). Extremely difficult to stop (these people get paid what they demand because they are highly successful).

Within this realm many assignations may look like accidents, or random violence; although some are obvious assignations.

The best ones could take out a major head of state, and I suspect the price would be in the $$ Millions (or more). I suspect the best ones have been contracted by various governments not to (and paid appropriately).

I am sure that high level intelligence agencies and the top level national law enforcement may know who some of these people actually are (but not normally where they are); in other cases they know their codename; and in the vast majority of cases I suspect they know how to get a message to them.

Al Qaeda and similar groups are not interested in just hiring a killing done or the Queen and other heads of states would already be dead - or very public attempts known. There are always lower level professionals who are attempting to move up to the rarefied arena where they are considered for suitable high level “jobs.” Some of them, I am sure, would be willing to make attempts at rates Al Qaeda could afford.

Law enforcement is typically after the people who operate in the several thousand to $50,000 range (and the lower the cost the more likely they catch them).

I know some of the details on a hit a couple of decades ago here in Wisconsin where the guy was caught by a fluke before he got out of town. As I recall; the price was $20,000 (in the early 80's), and once caught they were able to identify what looked like over a dozen similarly paid events in the previous few years because this gentleman paid his taxes on his “other” income (although they never figured who else any of the other people might be or who hired him for those other jobs). Said hit man never talked to the police once arrested, said exactly one word in court (guilty), and headed to jail. The defense lawyer argued for a short sentence because his client was honest, did not cause problems for the police or court, and had no other run in with the law or other problems. The last report I heard was that he was a model prisoner who was released early. They guy who hired him to kill his wife here in Wisconsin ended up with a lot more jail time and as I understand it was not a model prisoner – and is still probably in jail.

It is one thing to say that the Queen, or another head of state, could be killed... Al Qaeda doing it; I think is very unlikely. Look how easy it was to foil this attempt.

Perry

 

[Rank Amateur]

What I was saying Perry is that if a terrorist wants to make a big splash he has plenty of targets.

Think high school football game. How about a concert? Or Las Vegas? These venues would be big bang for the buck for a terrorist. Sometimes I''m even somewhat surprised that they haven''t hit one yet. I can''t decide if it''s because they aren''t trying, aren''t smart enough, or law inforcement is keeping them out.

If a terrorist wanted to go smaller scale he could do a DC sniper-type attack. Look how long it took to catch them. Head of State - you''re right, much tougher. But how about a Prez candidate at a rally? If you were willing to be caught you could get in pretty close.

Hopefully the inherent decency of people with prevent anything from happening.

 

[perry]

I am not going to claim to understand the minds of Al Qaeda and other groups.

However, as a kid I remember the attempted bombing of the Badger Ordance Army Munitions plant in the very late 60''s and the bombing of the Sterling Hall which housed the Army Math Research Center in Madison Wisconsin (these were local events as I lived less than 30 miles from both events).

I also note that September 11, 2001 was the third attempt at the World Trade Center (and I was not surprised by another attempt).

I have followed the news for decades.

With the exception of high school issues by high school students: all other cases were political targeted bombings.

The World Trade Center represented all that was wrong with the US and world economy for many people not in the US. Probably 1/2 of the population of the globe understood its political importance.

Badger Ordance and the Army Math Research Center were symbols of the Viet Nam war.

If you look at the bombings that routinely occur in Iraq and other places - they ususally are targeting political leaders or institutions in the government (police, etc).

In general - I don''t recall many bombings (or other attacks) that just target killing general people (or if they do it is clear that ethnic cleansing is at play - and often hundreds of thousands to millions are killed). What is the point in just killing people.

There have been a few subway bombings or attacks which do not fit this pattern - and I think fall into the realm of some group just trying to show that they can do it.... But, not many

Europe is the target for many terrorist attacks - often Mid Eastern based. But, even there events are relatively few compared to within the mid-east countries themselves.

I believe that the reason there have not been more attacks in the US to date is that Al Qaeda is really not that strong of an organization; and really do not care about what happens in the US.

Outside of the World Trade Center. The overwhelming vast majority all of the terriorst type attacks in the US have come from White Anglo Saxon Protestants (WASP) US citizens who have not been happy with the how things have gone within the US or with US policies.... Go look at the list of such events and cases over the last 40 years... Be it disastifaction with the Viet Nam war (many events - many places), be it disastifaction with the policies of the US - that we wern''t taking care of the poor good enough (remember the SLA, etc). Be it both (remember the Uni-bomber). etc.

I note that most of the Al Qaeda and similar group attacks in the middle eastern countries and other parts of the world are groups who are not satisfied with the political organization or gevernment services of their own country (or a neighboring country that is in conflict with their own country).

A few groups (Al Qaede being one of them) has been able to pull of an occasional isolated attack against a visable 3rd world political enemy target. But - they have not had a huge pattern of success becasue of how they operate; and are relatively easily caught if someone is looking.

I do note, though, that another site I follow indicates that intellegent reports are that some of the middle-east terriorest groups are funnelling money and drugs into the US cities with the understanding that they are buying a series of general attacks by various gangs in those cities (possibly coordinated attacks at that).

Can they really get inner city gang members to operate in sufficient secrecy and have the "I''ll kill as many as I can untill I am dead" mentality.... Good question (and I am highly skeptical on how effective this will be).

I am also skeptical that their are enough high profile target locations in the US that would motivate these gangs..

Should it happen - I do note that the US police are not prepared to handle it.

For aircraft hijackers 9-11 forever ended the concept that you negotiate with hijackers. Instead you fight with all you have immediately regardless of the consequences (and pilots will deliberately crash the plane if need be).

The police are trained to negotiate with hostage takers - not just charge in and kill or capture them right away - and at the unfortunate cost of killing some of the hostages in the process. Should a hostage takover event happen; most - if not all hostages would be dead by the time the police have their negotiation team assembled. Of course, I am not sure what political statement such a hostage event would make. Roomers are that the targets would be the schools (to kill the next generation in mass). But, I am very skeptical that anyone can find a large amount of people to simultainiously take over and kill the students in most of the cities schools at once (and I am very certain that even one case of this would mobilize this country to an extant that will shock almost everyone).


Perry