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Price increase/update for consumers?

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sjr

Rough_Rock
Joined
Mar 21, 2005
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Hello all,

I am in the market now and have unfortunately seen that I have come in after a 20%+ increase in (rough?) diamond sales in just one year-for 2 ct. I have read about De Beers'' siteholder change and the belief that prices could increase over five years with a few different outcomes. However, my severely limited-grade-school-supply and demand graph comprehension fails me in my ability to see what you experts are saying to consumers- as in are the effects reaching retailers now?

I was wishing to wait another year- to my girlfriend''s dismay, but with a falling dollar, lack of rough quantities, and my decreasing saving power due to my SUV virtually eating my money---- Is there any hope in waiting to buy these rare polished diamonds?

I read that venders usually know a few months before prices will increase and that most prices are set at the beginning of the year (from Paul-antwerp). Does anyone have a rough prediction on what''s to come in just this next year?

I appreciate the guidance and thanks for any input to a newbie who fears the slashing recoil to those who repost. SJR
 
prices are up aprox 14% so far this year on rough and will likely go up again within the next couple months.
There isnt enough margin left for the chain to eat that big an increase prices are going no-where but up unless someone stands up too DeBeers which isnt going to happen anytime soon.
 
Sell your SUV
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... just kidding.

In my opinion, one should only buy a diamond when one is ready and only one that is affordable.

If you can afford it now and are ready, there is no reason to wait since prices appear unlikely to soften significantly in the 2 carat + range. If you aren''t ready, just buy what you can afford when you are.
 
Thank you both for the somewhat equally anticipated replies. And unfortunately-noobie, my home climate dictates what types of cars I have to buy. I am not worried so much as to the cost, simply mere disgruntlement at both increases in gas and diamond prices when I am at an age to most appreciate them.

Storm, I enjoy reading most every one of your posts--thanks for all the helpful knowledge. Would it be your opinion to which you might have hinted at in a previous post that vendors and sites will hold onto these 2ct+ stones until prices rise high enough (to cover their own worries about lack of stock?). I timidly ask that as to not offend all the vendors who have allowed such insight for me- I know I would do the same if De Beers was doing this to everyone. Thanks again. SJR
 
Date: 3/28/2005 6:17
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Author: sjr
Thank you both for the somewhat equally anticipated replies. And unfortunately-noobie, my home climate dictates what types of cars I have to buy. I am not worried so much as to the cost, simply mere disgruntlement at both increases in gas and diamond prices when I am at an age to most appreciate them.


Storm, I enjoy reading most every one of your posts--thanks for all the helpful knowledge. Would it be your opinion to which you might have hinted at in a previous post that vendors and sites will hold onto these 2ct+ stones until prices rise high enough (to cover their own worries about lack of stock?). I timidly ask that as to not offend all the vendors who have allowed such insight for me- I know I would do the same if De Beers was doing this to everyone. Thanks again. SJR
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The Internet vendors arent likely to do so.
They survive by turning over stock quickly.
The wholesalers might but I think they are in the same boat as the vendors.
If they have it then its available.
The margins just arent there to tie up capital that long.

DeBeers and some of the other top level suppliers well thats another story they can afford to sit on it.
Which is what I was likely talking about.
I dont recall the thread in question.

Keep in mind that the diamond business is changing at 500 miles an hour right now and what is today may not be tomorrow.
That said I dont see prices going down anytime soon and see them steadily rising.
If I was in the market, had the money and found the stone I wanted Id buy it now.

Beyond that this advice is worth what it cost ya so if the bottom falls out of the market the day after you buy dont shoot me... ok? :}
 
Does anyone know of a chart that shows the fluctuation of diamond prices? I''d be interested in seeing that.
 
Leonid runs graphs on this from time to time - search for price charts/graphs, price changes, and the like - or maybe someone can put up a link to the proper thread for you...I''m going to bed
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Hi Sjr
If this is any help. Our buying dept reports strong firming of prices represented by shorter discounts in collection colors (D-F) (IF-SI2) polished goods above 1crt.
This shows that the rough price increases are now influencing polished prices. (there was some resistance from the larger factories for a while)
Prices will not go back so maybe you should consider a purchase soon.
Johan
 
Date: 3/29/2005 6:23:14 AM
Author: mdx
Hi Sjr

If this is any help. Our buying dept reports strong firming of prices represented by shorter discounts in collection colors (D-F) (IF-SI2) polished goods above 1crt.

This shows that the rough price increases are now influencing polished prices. (there was some resistance from the larger factories for a while)

Prices will not go back so maybe you should consider a purchase soon.

Johan

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But another thing to factor into this decision is that if you buy now and you can't really afford to, you might be no further ahead in the end because you'll have to finance a large part of the ring. What you'll save on beating the next price increase, you will lose in paying interest.
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Date: 3/28/2005 4:45
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Author:sjr
I read that venders usually know a few months before prices will increase and that most prices are set at the beginning of the year (from Paul-antwerp). Does anyone have a rough prediction on what''s to come in just this next year?
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I fear that you may have misread my words.

Generally, we do not ''know'' price increases of rough beforehand, and they can be set at any time of the year.

However, the competition for rough diamonds is such that it is foreseeable that prices of rough will continue to increase during the year.

Live long,
 
Since this subject was already going, it seemed like an appropriate place to ask my question. I'm likely looking to purchase an ideal - superideal cut, 1 - 1.25 carat, D-G, VS2-S1 diamond around the beginning of the summer.

My question is whether there is likely to be a significant enough increase in prices for the range I'm looking at to make it worth considering an earlier purchase date and then sitting on the diamond (ouch!) until I'm ready to get engaged.

Thanks in advance.

Later,
Eric
 
Thanks once again guys, your input has been most beneficial. And since my excitement over the particulars of buying a stone exceeds my conservative nature, I will continue to stay in the market. I could, however, find a less expensive hobby.

Also, I apologize for my misinterpretations of previous threads- it is something I am very good at. I was only seeking clarification and further information to which everyone was able to further explain, thanks SJR
 
Date: 3/29/2005 11
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Author: esqknight
Since this subject was already going, it seemed like an appropriate place to ask my question. I''m likely looking to purchase an ideal - superideal cut, 1 - 1.25 carat, D-G, VS2-S1 diamond around the beginning of the summer.


My question is whether there is likely to be a significant enough increase in prices for the range I''m looking at to make it worth considering an earlier purchase date and then sitting on the diamond (ouch!) until I''m ready to get engaged.


Thanks in advance.


Later,

Eric
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Id seriously consider it if your certain you will be getting engaged.
 
Date: 3/29/2005 11
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Author: esqknight
My question is whether there is likely to be a significant enough increase in prices for the range I''m looking at to make it worth considering an earlier purchase date and then sitting on the diamond (ouch!) until I''m ready to get engaged.

Thanks in advance.

Later,
Eric
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Hi Eric,

If you are looking at the beginning of Summer, I think that you mean June. Or are you somewhere down under?

If June, I would advise you to seriously start looking and choosing. Choosing this diamond is a time-consuming effort, and the last thing you need, is time-pressure.

Price-increase in this range will probably not be enormous (I estimate +3 to 4%), but you definitely should take your time to make your choice.

Live long,
 
I would at least start looking, and would buy when you find the right stone. Selection is more limited than normal it seems (but this size might not be too bad). I would take your time looking and buy when you find it since you are not that far away from proposing.
 
Date: 3/29/2005 11
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Author: esqknight
Since this subject was already going, it seemed like an appropriate place to ask my question. I''m likely looking to purchase an ideal - superideal cut, 1 - 1.25 carat, D-G, VS2-S1 diamond around the beginning of the summer.

My question is whether there is likely to be a significant enough increase in prices for the range I''m looking at to make it worth considering an earlier purchase date and then sitting on the diamond (ouch!) until I''m ready to get engaged.

Thanks in advance.

Later,
Eric
Click to expand...
better start looking but don''t rush, if you see a stone that you like,buy it.
 
In the jewlery diamond market anything really goes.

It is an artificially created market selling a luxury item (does anyone really need a diamond to live...). Being a luxury item there is no reason to stop raising prices untill people stop buying. Only problem is, gee whiz, most people are spending their life away on diamonds - regardless of cost.

I expect substaintial price increases untill the market drops out - if ever.

One example of what might happen. In many areas of the US housing values increased 50% in less than 2 years. That is not long term sustainable;] however, the market seemed to be able to absorg it at this time. I would not be surprised if high quality diamonds could not pull off a similar price increase.

If the market ever drops out of this artificially created market, which is very unlikely, I suspect that diamond prices could fall to 1/2 or less of todays values.

However, all of this really falls onto the producers and initial marketers. The cutters and distributors have almost no say - or change in profit - by such swings. They are along for the ride and hope to eek out a couple of percent overall.

Perry
 
Now there is an Oxymoron if ever I heard one!!

An artifical market.
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Date: 3/30/2005 6:31:34 AM
Author: Garry H (Cut Nut)
Now there is an Oxymoron if ever I heard one!!

An artifical market.
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Hm... maybe. I am attending a seminar this summer called "Market Design". And it''s serious core research topic
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