Diamond Prices to go UP??

[mintve]

I keep hearing from various places that diamonds will go up around the hoildays, which makes sense b/c of demand. I am also hearing they will go up with the new year due to the diminishing value of the US dollar. A few people have suggesed we buy a stone now and hold onto it until we are ready to have it mounted in a setting, even if its 6mos to a year.

Have you heard anything like this?

What are your thoughts???

 

[avlis]

you should expect diamond prices to go up every year to keep up with inflation and CPI

 

[WinkHPD]

If you listen to the press our economy is in the toilet and about to get flushed. Diamond prices, and other luxury goods to go down in price.

If you listen to my European friends, the dollar is in the tank and diamonds are sold in dollars. Making diamonds lower in price for Europeans, but making the diamond miners cranky as they do not LIKE for prices to go down, therefor, look for diamond prices, in dollars, to go up.

Which is reality?

Stay tuned for NEWS!

Wnk

P.S. Diamond prices are almost always very solid, (read up a little bit) during Christmas, and softer after Christmas.

 

[louisvgirl]

Huh, I was told that in November diamond prices were going up too??? A jeweler told me this just the other day.

 

[Skippy123]

Date: 10/29/2007 6:07:45 PM
Author: Wink
If you listen to the press our economy is in the toilet and about to get flushed. Diamond prices, and other luxury goods to go down in price.

If you listen to my European friends, the dollar is in the tank and diamonds are sold in dollars. Making diamonds lower in price for Europeans, but making the diamond miners cranky as they do not LIKE for prices to go down, therefor, look for diamond prices, in dollars, to go up.

Which is reality?

Stay tuned for NEWS!

Wnk

P.S. Diamond prices are almost always very solid, (read up a little bit) during Christmas, and softer after Christmas.

I have been pondering this for topic for awhile lately. I booked a trip to Europe and of course the US dollar is weak and it cost more than normal. I started to think about how weak our dollar has become and I was thinking about diamonds and what it means to vendors. I had no clue diamond prices are set in dollars?!?! This could become an extremely interesting topic for sure. Thanks for the insight Wink!!!

 

[diagem]

Date: 10/29/2007 6:07:45 PM
Author: Wink
If you listen to the press our economy is in the toilet and about to get flushed. Diamond prices, and other luxury goods to go down in price.

If you listen to my European friends, the dollar is in the tank and diamonds are sold in dollars. Making diamonds lower in price for Europeans, but making the diamond miners cranky as they do not LIKE for prices to go down, therefor, look for diamond prices, in dollars, to go up.

Which is reality?

Stay tuned for NEWS!

Wnk

P.S. Diamond prices are almost always very solid, (read up a little bit) during Christmas, and softer after Christmas.

As long as the US will keep its dominance in the Diamond market

and if you really believe US economy is about to get flushed then Wink would be right and Diamonds would follow...

But on the other hand "emerging markets" like China, Russia, India and some Arab countries are filling the hole the US is digging and "fastttt"..., some analysts claim to fast for comfort...

I have been hearing voices by leaders of this industry suggesting to replace the $$$ to Euros..., (just last week Iran threatened to start selling their oil in Euros too)

I doubt it will happen overnight..., but you never know....

But for the short term..., (until the US eco. gets flushed), I believe prices are upstream..., and we might witness some pretty radical segments flying through the roof!!!

 

[strmrdr]

Date: 10/29/2007 7:09:09 PM
Author: DiaGem
As long as the US will keep its dominance in the Diamond market

and if you really believe US economy is about to get flushed then Wink would be right and Diamonds would follow...

But on the other hand ''emerging markets'' like China, Russia, India and some Arab countries are filling the hole the US is digging and ''fastttt''..., some analysts claim to fast for comfort...

I have been hearing voices by leaders of this industry suggesting to replace the $$$ to Euros..., (just last week Iran threatened to start selling their oil in Euros too)

I doubt it will happen overnight..., but you never know....

But for the short term..., (until the US eco. gets flushed), I believe prices are upstream..., and we might witness some pretty radical segments flying through the roof!!!

I don''t buy the emerging market story.
If US sales drop the markets wont grow fast enough to take up the slack.
Building materials then tractors then autos and other none luxury items will be purchased first and they are growing slowly but steadily.
The percentage that can buy a luxury item is very small and the gap between them and the ones that cant is very huge.

 

[diagem]

Date: 10/29/2007 7:35:13 PM
Author: strmrdr

Date: 10/29/2007 7:09:09 PM
Author: DiaGem
As long as the US will keep its dominance in the Diamond market

and if you really believe US economy is about to get flushed then Wink would be right and Diamonds would follow...

But on the other hand ''emerging markets'' like China, Russia, India and some Arab countries are filling the hole the US is digging and ''fastttt''..., some analysts claim to fast for comfort...

I have been hearing voices by leaders of this industry suggesting to replace the $$$ to Euros..., (just last week Iran threatened to start selling their oil in Euros too)

I doubt it will happen overnight..., but you never know....

But for the short term..., (until the US eco. gets flushed), I believe prices are upstream..., and we might witness some pretty radical segments flying through the roof!!!

I don''t buy the emerging market story.
If US sales drop the markets wont grow fast enough to take up the slack.
Building materials then tractors then autos and other none luxury items will be purchased first and they are growing slowly but steadily.
The percentage that can buy a luxury item is very small and the gap between them and the ones that cant is very huge.

Storm..., you sound like someone living in a bubble....
There is plenty reading material I am certain you can find about "the emerging markets"

 

[Skippy123]

Date: 10/29/2007 7:35:13 PM
Author: strmrdr

Date: 10/29/2007 7:09:09 PM
Author: DiaGem
As long as the US will keep its dominance in the Diamond market

and if you really believe US economy is about to get flushed then Wink would be right and Diamonds would follow...

But on the other hand 'emerging markets' like China, Russia, India and some Arab countries are filling the hole the US is digging and 'fastttt'..., some analysts claim to fast for comfort...

I have been hearing voices by leaders of this industry suggesting to replace the $$$ to Euros..., (just last week Iran threatened to start selling their oil in Euros too)

I doubt it will happen overnight..., but you never know....

But for the short term..., (until the US eco. gets flushed), I believe prices are upstream..., and we might witness some pretty radical segments flying through the roof!!!

I don't buy the emerging market story.
If US sales drop the markets wont grow fast enough to take up the slack.
Building materials then tractors then autos and other none luxury items will be purchased first and they are growing slowly but steadily.
The percentage that can buy a luxury item is very small and the gap between them and the ones that cant is very huge.

I kind of buy the "emerging market story", I don't want to get into a debate but I think DG might be right. Only time will tell.

This topic is really fascinating!!!

 

[mintve]

I feel like some places are using the uncertainty as a tough sell tactic to get you to by now. Others really make it come across as though they are educating the consumer. It will be curious to see what happens. I just hope when I am ready to buy, that the cost is not on the way UP, UP, UP!!

 

[strmrdr]

Date: 10/29/2007 8:32:14 PM
Author: Skippy123

I kind of buy the ''emerging market story'', I don''t want to get into a debate but I think DG might be right. Only time will tell.

This topic is really fascinating!!!

don''t get me wrong markets are emerging but too think that they will rise fast enough to offset a US blow up is living in a dream world.
Most of the emerging markets wouldn''t exist without US consumers.
China certainly would tank along with us.

As far as the numbers go it will be 10s of decades if ever at the current rate of growth or even 100 times the current rate before the average person in China can buy diamonds yet it is touted as a billion consumer market.
It is fluff.... and just another excuse to raise prices.

 

[strmrdr]

Date: 10/29/2007 9:23:34 PM
Author: mintve
I feel like some places are using the uncertainty as a tough sell tactic to get you to by now. Others really make it come across as though they are educating the consumer. It will be curious to see what happens. I just hope when I am ready to buy, that the cost is not on the way UP, UP, UP!!

I expect a small increase from DeBeers the first part of the year, Feb or March and the rest will follow.
That is pretty much a given every year but dont see an 8% increase like it was a few years ago happening.
More likely is 2% if that.
3ct and above all bets are off however.

 

[strmrdr]

Date: 10/29/2007 8:16:08 PM
Author: DiaGem
Storm..., you sound like someone living in a bubble....
There is plenty reading material I am certain you can find about 'the emerging markets'

You have been hanging around Garry too much your starting too sound like him.

 

[WinkHPD]

Date: 10/29/2007 7:01:15 PM
Author: Skippy123

Date: 10/29/2007 6:07:45 PM

Author: Wink

If you listen to the press our economy is in the toilet and about to get flushed. Diamond prices, and other luxury goods to go down in price.


If you listen to my European friends, the dollar is in the tank and diamonds are sold in dollars. Making diamonds lower in price for Europeans, but making the diamond miners cranky as they do not LIKE for prices to go down, therefor, look for diamond prices, in dollars, to go up.


Which is reality?


Stay tuned for NEWS!


Wnk


P.S. Diamond prices are almost always very solid, (read up a little bit) during Christmas, and softer after Christmas.

I have been pondering this for topic for awhile lately. I booked a trip to Europe and of course the US dollar is weak and it cost more than normal. I started to think about how weak our dollar has become and I was thinking about diamonds and what it means to vendors. I had no clue diamond prices are set in dollars?!?! This could become an extremely interesting topic for sure. Thanks for the insight Wink!!!

You are welcome. Originally diamond prices were set in dollars because that was the only currency in the world with enough float to handle the need for billions of dollars in cash every 5 weeks for the diamond sites without causing a fluctuation in the currency.

With the advent of the Euro and the strength and confidence that the world now has in the Euro this is no longer true. There are now enough Euros to handle the every five weeks need without fluctuating the value of the currency. This suits every one just fine, but eventually the dollar will get strong again and the Euro will be weak, so what will they do then???

Stay tuned for NEWS!

Wink

P.S. For those who may not know. The sites, held every 5 weeks, are when DeBeers releases rough to their siteholders. When DeBeers controlled 80% or more of the world''s diamonds, this was incredibly important and created a need for an incredible amount of money, as diamonds had to be paid for before leaving the offices of DeBeers. Now with DeBeers controlling less than 50% of the worlds diamonds this still requires and incredible amount of cash, but not so much as before.

P.P.S. I make no claims as to knowing the actual % of the market that DeBeers now controls, but let''s just say that it is WAY less than it used to be.

 

[LS90]

In one of the jewelers i was in today, they were raising the prices of their bands as i spoke to the salesmen, but that was due to the fluctuation in platinum and not the stones. It''s entirely possible that diamond prices will go up, but hopefully not as bad as housing has these past few years (still waiting for the bubble to break here).

 

[diagem]

Date: 10/30/2007 2:34:20 AM
Author: LS90
In one of the jewelers i was in today, they were raising the prices of their bands as i spoke to the salesmen, but that was due to the fluctuation in platinum and not the stones. It''s entirely possible that diamond prices will go up, but hopefully not as bad as housing has these past few years (still waiting for the bubble to break here).

I dont think the housing is the right example..., but if you compare Diamond prices vs. other commodities (which I think is more comparable than housing)...,
it would justify more price hike for Diamonds.

 

[diagem]

Date: 10/29/2007 11:20:51 PM
Author: strmrdr

Date: 10/29/2007 8:16:08 PM
Author: DiaGem
Storm..., you sound like someone living in a bubble....
There is plenty reading material I am certain you can find about ''the emerging markets''

You have been hanging around Garry too much your starting too sound like him.

Storm..., read (a few quick articles I put together)!!! I am certain if you search (only a bit), you cant miss the articles on the growing (fast) emerging markets...
What can you do..., after all Garry is located in the east..., and I assume he feels the emerging markets close to him.

http://www.diamonds.net/news/NewsItem.aspx?ArticleID=19314

http://www.diamonds.net/news/NewsItem.aspx?ArticleID=19145

http://www.diamonds.net/news/NewsItem.aspx?ArticleID=18623

http://www.diamonds.net/news/NewsItem.aspx?ArticleID=18018

http://www.diamonds.net/news/NewsItem.aspx?ArticleID=19335

http://www.diamonds.net/news/NewsItem.aspx?ArticleID=19318

 

[strmrdr]

Date: 10/30/2007 5:26:11 AM
Author: DiaGem

Date: 10/29/2007 11:20:51 PM
Author: strmrdr

Date: 10/29/2007 8:16:08 PM
Author: DiaGem
Storm..., you sound like someone living in a bubble....
There is plenty reading material I am certain you can find about 'the emerging markets'

You have been hanging around Garry too much your starting too sound like him.

Storm..., read (a few quick articles I put together)!!! I am certain if you search (only a bit), you cant miss the articles on the growing (fast) emerging markets...
What can you do..., after all Garry is located in the east..., and I assume he feels the emerging markets close to him.

http://www.diamonds.net/news/NewsItem.aspx?ArticleID=19314

http://www.diamonds.net/news/NewsItem.aspx?ArticleID=19145

http://www.diamonds.net/news/NewsItem.aspx?ArticleID=18623

http://www.diamonds.net/news/NewsItem.aspx?ArticleID=18018

http://www.diamonds.net/news/NewsItem.aspx?ArticleID=19335

http://www.diamonds.net/news/NewsItem.aspx?ArticleID=19318

I was refering to you trying to insult me not about the issue at hand in my reply.

Most of those aren't available too consumers and why would I trust an industry source for the info?
But lets take some numbers from there for a second anyway...
China $94 billion US $378 billion... China PREDICTED too grow 14% a year.
Lets make a very very very huge assumption which since its based on bogus data, it would take China 6years to be roughly 1/2 the US market and its not going to happen anyway.
Most of the new money wealthy in China is a direct result of US sales so if the US falters so will they.
GIGO on the predictions it isn't growing that fast and its dependant on the US buying goods.
Trying to make it sound like it will scale vertically is hype and flat out wrong.

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

Date: 10/29/2007 11:20:51 PM
Author: strmrdr

Date: 10/29/2007 8:16:08 PM
Author: DiaGem
Storm..., you sound like someone living in a bubble....
There is plenty reading material I am certain you can find about ''the emerging markets''

You have been hanging around Garry too much your starting too sound like him.

Actually I kinda agree with you Storm.

If China doubled consumption this year and USA dropped by 5%, there would be a big drop in demand.

But the widening gap between the rich and the not so well off (working poor) means that the key factor is sentiment - how the rich flok ''feel'' (for the big stone biz), and how the middle classes feel about employment and security for the mass market.

 

[diagem]

No intention on my part to insult you or anyone else..., so I am sorry if you (for some reason) feel this way!!!

Storm..., I fully understand its nice and comfy in the bubble....

, but I didnt know you found a brick wall in there to bang your head in...

Small reality check..., The US is and will not be the same again..., keeping the $$$ low to fuel up exports (selling US products) will not last and eventually will backlash!!!

BTW..., it was comfortable for me to source the news fast from an industry source..., but most of the news on the emerging market''s super fast growth originates by legit journalistic articles and news!!!

I keep forgetting your opinion that this industry is not too trust-worthy!!! You voiced your feelings loud and clear in the past!

 

[strmrdr]

Date: 10/30/2007 6:09:16 AM
Author: Garry H (Cut Nut)

Date: 10/29/2007 11:20:51 PM
Author: strmrdr

Date: 10/29/2007 8:16:08 PM
Author: DiaGem
Storm..., you sound like someone living in a bubble....
There is plenty reading material I am certain you can find about ''the emerging markets''

You have been hanging around Garry too much your starting too sound like him.

Actually I kinda agree with you Storm.

If China doubled consumption this year and USA dropped by 5%, there would be a big drop in demand.

But the widening gap between the rich and the not so well off (working poor) means that the key factor is sentiment - how the rich flok ''feel'' (for the big stone biz), and how the middle classes feel about employment and security for the mass market.

That was actually a little poke about your not paying attention in class type comments which are then followed up by a bunch of links in a follow up post.
Then me disagreeing further usually LOL
Its all kewl.

 

[diagem]

Date: 10/30/2007 6:09:16 AM
Author: Garry H (Cut Nut)

Date: 10/29/2007 11:20:51 PM
Author: strmrdr

Date: 10/29/2007 8:16:08 PM
Author: DiaGem
Storm..., you sound like someone living in a bubble....
There is plenty reading material I am certain you can find about ''the emerging markets''

You have been hanging around Garry too much your starting too sound like him.

Actually I kinda agree with you Storm.

If China doubled consumption this year and USA dropped by 5%, there would be a big drop in demand.
Right..., now add India and Russia to the mix..., and look ahead to the near future (based on analysts projections for those parts of the world)..., what would you get?

But the widening gap between the rich and the not so well off (working poor) means that the key factor is sentiment - how the rich flok ''feel'' (for the big stone biz), and how the middle classes feel about employment and security for the mass market.

True..., one of the biggest problem the free world is facing is the widening gap between upper and lower classes..., but thats another topic!!!
The rich of present days are not the rich of yesterday''s..., while the middle/lower class lowers/stops their spending..., the "new" rich keep spending on luxury like there is no tomorrow!!!

 

[strmrdr]

Date: 10/30/2007 6:14:00 AM
Author: DiaGem
No intention on my part to insult you or anyone else..., so I am sorry if you (for some reason) feel this way!!!

Storm..., I fully understand its nice and comfy in the bubble....

, but I didnt know you found a brick wall in there to bang your head in...

Small reality check..., The US is and will not be the same again..., keeping the $$$ low to fuel up exports (selling US products) will not last and eventually will backlash!!!

BTW..., it was comfortable for me to source the news fast from an industry source..., but most of the news on the emerging market's super fast growth originates by legit journalistic articles and news!!!

I keep forgetting your opinion that this industry is not too trust-worthy!!! You voiced your feelings loud and clear in the past!

sssshhhh let me tell ya a little secret the weakening dollar is all about the North American Union that the politicians from both parties are trying to shove down our throats more than anything else.
The job bleed is a very far back second and frankly they dont really care about it.
Do some research on that subject and you will see the light far more than reading industry news.

 

[strmrdr]

Date: 10/30/2007 6:24:17 AM
Author: DiaGem

True..., one of the biggest problem the free world is facing is the widening gap between upper and lower classes..., but thats another topic!!!
The rich of present days are not the rich of yesterday''s..., while the middle/lower class lowers/stops their spending..., the ''new'' rich keep spending on luxury like there is no tomorrow!!!

actually that is exactly what is happening in China and India.
The very rich are the ones buying jewelery not the average everyday people.
That''s a huge reason it wont scale. see my post way up there about the fake billion consumer market, there isn''t one....
And the new rich are being made rich by US consumers.
You cant separate the issues they all tie together.

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

I have a secret.
I know why the price of +3ct is going up and everything else is stable or in non US$''s is falling.\

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

Date: 10/30/2007 6:30:38 AM
Author: strmrdr

And the new rich are being made rich by US consumers.

Sorry Storm, that is not true

 

[strmrdr]

Date: 10/30/2007 6:37:50 AM
Author: Garry H (Cut Nut)

Date: 10/30/2007 6:30:38 AM
Author: strmrdr

And the new rich are being made rich by US consumers.

Sorry Storm, that is not true

the new rich in China are the ones running the factories producing goods for US markets and in India the outsourcing companies. (India has a few other things going on but the largest growth is in importing outsourced jobs)
The new lower middle class are the ones working for the above.

 

[strmrdr]

Date: 10/30/2007 6:36:19 AM
Author: Garry H (Cut Nut)
I have a secret.
I know why the price of +3ct is going up and everything else is stable or in non US$'s is falling.

DeBeers closed the mines that were producing a lot of the largest diamonds and the Canadian mines have fewer large rough than the mines they replaced.
You can correct me if I'm wrong but I also believe that the Aussie mine produces less large rough.
Strong demand in the middle east drives up prices on limited supply.
If you believe the industry that is LOL

 

[strmrdr]

Date: 10/30/2007 6:50:41 AM
Author: strmrdr

Date: 10/30/2007 6:37:50 AM
Author: Garry H (Cut Nut)

Date: 10/30/2007 6:30:38 AM
Author: strmrdr

And the new rich are being made rich by US consumers.

Sorry Storm, that is not true

the new rich in China are the ones running the factories producing goods for US markets and in India the outsourcing companies. (India has a few other things going on but the largest growth is in importing outsourced jobs)
The new lower middle class are the ones working for the above.

here is a link,,, if you look into the areas listed they are heavy into export production,,,
http://www.china.org.cn/english/BAT/161574.htm

 

[diagem]

Date: 10/30/2007 6:30:38 AM
Author: strmrdr

Date: 10/30/2007 6:24:17 AM
Author: DiaGem

True..., one of the biggest problem the free world is facing is the widening gap between upper and lower classes..., but thats another topic!!!
The rich of present days are not the rich of yesterday''s..., while the middle/lower class lowers/stops their spending..., the ''new'' rich keep spending on luxury like there is no tomorrow!!!

actually that is exactly what is happening in China and India.
The very rich are the ones buying jewelery not the average everyday people.
That''s a huge reason it wont scale. see my post way up there about the fake billion consumer market, there isn''t one....
And the new rich are being made rich by US consumers.
You cant separate the issues they all tie together.

The very rich in these countries were poor not too long ago!!
The middle class is growing fast and are buying jewelry (especially India, jewelry is in their heritage...)
Just take a segment in this industry called "super-luxury watches"...,
even the Watch Companies are shocked by the boom of the super-uber- expensive watches of $100K ++ , they cant even produce enough to meet demand. (not coming from US

)

The US consumer is out of the game..., due to the weak Dollar..., all I keep hearing is "how everything is so super expensive for the Americans out there..."

Its time for another continent/part of the world to lead "economically"!!! And China and India are leading the race..., only time will tell....