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College Tuition in 20 Years

MRBXXXFVVS1

Brilliant_Rock
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Dec 5, 2019
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I did some math and in 20 years time, college tuition will be about $1M/student at a private school, including room and board. I guess if I want 2 kids and to pay for their college, need to save an additional $2M on top of retirement, or just put aside $300K/future child in today's dollars which somehow seems more reasonable! Hopefully they can get some scholarships and/or attend a state school instead...
 

seaurchin

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Or they can live at home and commute to save a lot of that money, and/or go to a junior college for the first two years and/or get student loans and grants to help out etc. College education does not need to be an insanely high financial burden for either the parents or the kids. :)
 

lulu_ma

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Ideally, you could buy a house in a district with great schools so, perhaps, private school wouldn’t be necessary. My niece is graduating this year, she worked with a private college counselor who got her $27k a year in merit money from a private NY university. So proud of my niece:)
 

voce

Ideal_Rock
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I had parents who paid for everything at the beginning and frankly now wish they never did. Financial literacy and independence are valuable skills better taught hands on than on paper in theory. Kids don't develop financial literacy if the expectation forms that the parents will pay for everything.
 

dizzyakira

Shiny_Rock
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Sep 25, 2016
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Oooof. Well, thank goodness my kids will be going this fall and then one in 5 years. I'm beginning to strongly dislike colleges and higher education. I already told my kids we can pay for public school but not private. And even public schools are expensive. The public universities in nyc are over 20k a year with room and board. Why does a room in U. of Albany cost more than rent in NYC? And if she needs to stay 5 years...ugh... this just makes me sick.
 

elizat

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I don't see it happening.

The general cost of living and wages will not increase to support that hike.

If it does happen, private schools will likely price their way out of existence.

I'm all for education. But currently many jobs require a college degree as an entry stamp that years before required nothing. Why does a receptionist need a four year degree? Or any degree?

I think we will see a massive shift on college v trade school in the coming decades. It's long overdue and necessary. The idea that a traditional 4 year degree is the only path to success is fundamentally flawed, as is the idea that everyone needs a 4 year degree.
 

Dancing Fire

Super_Ideal_Rock
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I don’t think that’s the way it works. I especially think that with all the talk of loan forgiveness, colleges will have to re-examine their tuition increases.
That's BS!. :angryfire: Will I be reimbursed for paying my DD's college education?
 

kenny

Super_Ideal_Rock
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I'm putting my entire portfolio into the stocks of condom manufacturers.
 

missy

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There are two big issues that must be considered when it comes to higher education. One is affordability. And two is will the students realize an economic return on their investment in higher education? Those are the two critical factors IMO when discussing this topic.

The costs are out of hand. Not just for tuition but room and board and books and other supplies. It is all very expensive. I do think there will be a shift in the financials as universities reinvent themselves and adapt and there will be ways to mitigate the costs. Scholarships, financial aid, the schools cutting costs and many of them probably closing. Ultimately there will be more options but it will be different. Only time will tell how it plays out but I do not think the four year college education is dead.





For decades, annual college tuition and fees have risen faster than inflation, and very recently have been rising at a rate of 3% to 4% per year. (Though this year, amid the pandemic, tuition and fees actually fell.)

The cost of college in the United States has increased more than 25% in the last 10 years.


But experts say you shouldn’t expect tuition and fees to keep falling. In fact, just the opposite: “Long term you can expect college costs to go up at least 3% to 4% a year,” says Mark Kantrowitz, the publisher and vice president of research at Savingforcollege.com. And Andrew Pentis, a senior writer at Student Loan Hero, notes that the “safe assumption” for what college will cost in the future is that it will rise roughly 3% a year.

Of course, the sticker price of college, and what you actually pay out of pocket for college, are two different things. “Net price is what people need to look at,” explains Kantrowitz, as that subtracts out scholarships and grants and rises a little more slowly than the sticker price of college. And it’s possible legislation could be passed to make college more affordable, or that solid and affordable alternatives to college become more prevalent.

Still, many experts agree that you’ll probably be paying more for college in the future.



Here is an interesting opinion piece written last May.


"

The Future of College Is Online, and It’s Cheaper​

The coronavirus forced a shift to virtual classes, but their continuation could be beneficial even after the pandemic ends.

By Hans Taparia
Mr. Taparia is a clinical associate professor at the New York University Stern School of Business.



Forty years ago, going to college in America was a reliable pathway for upward mobility. Today, it has become yet another 21st-century symbol of privilege for the wealthy. Through this period, tuition rates soared 260 percent, double the rate of inflation. In 2019, the average cost of attending a four-year private college was over $200,000. For a four-year public college, it was over $100,000. To sustain these prices, more students are now admittedfrom the top 1 percent of the income scale than the entire bottom 40 percent at the top 80 colleges. Universities have also opened the floodgates to wealthy international students, willing to pay full tuition for the American brand.

Covid-19 is about to ravage that business model. Mass unemployment is looming large and is likely to put college out of reach for many. With America now the epicenter of the pandemic and bungling its response, many students are looking to defer enrollment. Foreign students are questioning whether to register at all, with greater uncertainty around visas and work prospects. The “Trump Effect” had already begun to cause declining foreign student enrollment over the past three years.

The mightiest of institutions are bracing for the worst. Harvard, home to the country’s largest endowment, recently announceddrastic steps to manage the fallout, including salary cuts for its leadership, hiring freezes and cuts in discretionary spending. Most other universities have been forced to make similar decisions, and are nervous that if they continue with online teaching this fall, students will demand at least a partial remission of tuition.

Up until now, online education has been relegated to the equivalent of a hobby at most universities. With the pandemic, it has become a backup plan. But if universities embrace this moment strategically, online education could expand access exponentially and drop its cost by magnitudes — all while shoring up revenues for universities in a way that is more recession-proof, policy-proof and pandemic-proof.

To be clear, the scramble to move online over just a few days this March did not go well. Faculty members were forced to revamp lesson plans overnight. “Zoom-bombers” took advantage of lax privacy protocols. Students fled home, with many in faraway time zones prolonging jet lag just to continue synchronous learning. Not surprisingly, the experience for both students and faculty has left much to be desired. According to one survey, more than 75 percent of students do not feel they received a quality learning experience after classrooms closed.

But what surveys miss are the numerous spirited efforts to break new ground, as only a crisis can be the impetus for.

One professor at New York University’s Tisch School of the Arts taught a drama course that allows students to “act” with each other in virtual reality using Oculus Quest headsets. A music professor at Stanford trained his students on software that allows musicians in different locations to perform together using internet streaming. Professors are pioneering new methods and ed-tech companies are developing platforms at a pace not seen before, providing a glimpse into the untapped potential of online education. Not to be forgotten, of course, is the fact that just a few years ago, a transition to online learning at the current scale would have been unimaginable.

Before the pandemic, most universities never truly embraced online education, at least not strategically. For years, universities have allowed professors to offer some courses online, making them accessible through aggregators such as edX or Coursera. But rarely do universities offer their most popular and prestigious degrees remotely. It is still not possible to get an M.B.A. at Stanford, a biology degree at M.I.T. or a computer science degree at Brown online.

On one hand, universities don’t want to be seen as limiting access to education, so they have dabbled in the space. But to fully embrace it might render much of the faculty redundant, reduce the exclusivity of those degrees, and threaten the very existence of the physical campus, for which vast resources have been allocated over centuries.

For good reason, many educators have been skeptical of online learning. They have questioned how discussion-based courses, which require more intimate settings, would be coordinated. They wonder how lab work might be administered. Of course, no one doubts that the student experience would not be as holistic. But universities don’t need to abandon in-person teaching for students who see the value in it.

They simply need to create “parallel” online degrees for all their core degree programs. By doing so, universities could expand their reach by thousands, creating the economies of scale to drop their costs by tens of thousands.

There are a few, but instructive, examples of prestigious universities that have already shown the way. Georgia Tech, a top engineering school, launched an online masters in computer science in 2014. The degree costs just $7,000 (one-sixth the cost of its in-person program), and the school now has nearly 10,000 students enrolled, making it the largest computer science program in the country. Notably, the online degree has not cannibalized its on-campus revenue stream. Instead, it has opened up a prestigious degree program to a different population, mostly midcareer applicants looking for a meaningful skills upgrade.

Similarly, in 2015, the University of Illinois launched an online M.B.A. for $22,000, a fraction of the cost of most business schools. In order to provide a forum for networking and experiential learning, critical to the business school experience, the university created micro-immersions, where students can connect with other students and work on live projects at companies at a regional level.

To do this would require a major reorientation of university resources and activities. Classrooms would need to be fitted with new technology so that lectures could be simultaneously delivered to students on campus as well as across the world. Professors would need to undergo training on how to effectively teach to a blended classroom. Universities would also be well served to build competencies in content production. Today, almost all theory-based content, whether in chemistry, computer science or finance, can be produced in advance and effectively delivered asynchronously. By tapping their best-rated professors to be the stars of those productions, universities could actually raise the pedagogical standard.

There are already strong examples of this. Most biology professors, for instance, would find themselves hard pressed to match the pedagogical quality, production values and inspirational nature of Eric Lander’s online Introduction to Biology course at M.I.T. That free course currently has over 134,000 students enrolled this semester.

Once universities have developed a library of content, they can choose to draw from it for asynchronous delivery for years, both for their on-campus and online programs. Students may not mind. It would, after all, open up professor capacity for a larger number of live interactions. Three-hour lectures, which were never good for anyone, would become a thing of the past. Instead, a typical day might be broken up into one-hour sessions with a focus on problem-solving, Q. and A. or discussion.

Many universities are sounding bold about reopening in-person instruction this fall. The current business model requires them to, or face financial ruin. But a hasty decision driven by the financial imperative could prove lethal, and do little to help them weather a storm. The pandemic provides universities an opportunity to reimagine education around the pillars of access and affordability with the myriad tools and techniques now at their disposal. It could make them true pathways of upward mobility again.
Hans Taparia is a clinical associate professor at the New York University Stern School of Business.
"
 

Asscherhalo_lover

Ideal_Rock
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I have two young children. No one helped me pay for my college. Not a dime. It has been a heavy burden. I was not well guided (first in my family to go to college) and I'm still paying off my loans. I am putting what I can afford into accounts for my kids to help reduce the burden but the biggest thing I will help them with is making informed decisions and not going into unnecessary debt. I am lucky that at 35 I am ALMOST done paying my student loans, many of my friends will NEVER pay them off.
 

Grymera

Shiny_Rock
Joined
Nov 26, 2017
Messages
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I don't think the next generation of parents, saddled with student loan debt, are going to let their kids go into such extreme debt. $1M, no way! Either that's the sticker price that most families never pay via financial aid, or most Americans (excluding 1%) just can't do that. Who's giving an 18 year old a 1M student loan for an English degree from Vassar? No way.
 

elizat

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I have two young children. No one helped me pay for my college. Not a dime. It has been a heavy burden. I was not well guided (first in my family to go to college) and I'm still paying off my loans. I am putting what I can afford into accounts for my kids to help reduce the burden but the biggest thing I will help them with is making informed decisions and not going into unnecessary debt. I am lucky that at 35 I am ALMOST done paying my student loans, many of my friends will NEVER pay them off.

It's quite interesting. I sometimes wonder when my law school loans will be paid off. I think they will be paid off before I die, but I will probably be near retirement when they are finally done. I can't remember if my loans are eligible to be written off if they've been paid for 25 years.

However the flip side to it is that they are on a fixed rate that is very low because of when I took the loans out with the federal government. I could pay more money on those student loans to pay them off quicker, but because the interest rate that I was able to get is so low due to the economy at the time, that it literally makes no sense for me to put that money into my student loans. When I consider what the investment return versus the benefit to paying off those loans early, there really is not a benefit to early repayment other than not having the payment each month.
 

Cerulean

Brilliant_Rock
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It is criminal how expensive school has gotten. The downstream impact on the economy I also think has not come to roost (e.g. limited buying power across a significant percentage of a generation)

Kids shouldn't have to forego the dorm experience, and should be able to go go to private schools just as their parents did without being punished financially for the rest of their lives. The burden shouldn't be on kids, period.

I'd be surprised to see tuition hit the 1M mark, but it keeps climbing and climbing. Supplies alone are extremely cost-prohibitive too, and without parents' support, many kids have to take out private loans to cover supplies and other living expenses (and yes, even if they hold down jobs.) But don't worry, if it does hit that, kids will actually qualify for loans, I am sure.

It's not like the education itself is increasing in quality, it's that in order to compete in our capitalist economy, private colleges have to essentially market themselves as luxury campuses that require huge amounts of cash to maintain, as well as increased administrative burden. Multiple gyms, cafeterias in every dorm, verdant campus squares, you name it.

I worked at a university as a teacher in a non-credit degree program, and I was privy to details on how much $$ was allocated to administrative staff versus professors. Professors, many of them with illustrious careers, were part-time adjuncts with no benefits and no promise of tenure, which broke my heart. Most of them had second jobs just to get insurance.

Admins, on the other hand, had cushy salaries and insurance. And took up 2/3 of the staff at the university. I found it appalling.

Scholarships aren't often nearly enough either...I was an excellent high school student (luckily) and had very generous scholarships and still came out with 100k+. I am now getting my Master's, which is another 50k. I've paid off nearly half through lots of sacrifice at the age of 30. But do I resent it? Hell yes. And I am leaps and bounds ahead of many of peers.
 

AllAboardTheBlingTrain

Brilliant_Rock
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The cost of a university education in the US is absolutely appalling. I really hope some form of governmental reform is introduced in the future to curb rising costs. The cost of education should be mostly borne by the government and paid for through taxes; rather than on individuals; in my opinion. That is the fairest way.
 

maryjane04

Brilliant_Rock
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I feel very fortunate in Australia that we don't have to take out personal loans to study. And our study debt is no where near as much as it is in the US. For a typical degree it's about 10k/year. So any 40k for a 4 year degree. Masters will probably be 40k in 2 years but the government gives us all a loan which is only indexed at inflation rates, no interest. And we pay it back when we've secured a job after we're finished.
 

Asscherhalo_lover

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It's quite interesting. I sometimes wonder when my law school loans will be paid off. I think they will be paid off before I die, but I will probably be near retirement when they are finally done. I can't remember if my loans are eligible to be written off if they've been paid for 25 years.

However the flip side to it is that they are on a fixed rate that is very low because of when I took the loans out with the federal government. I could pay more money on those student loans to pay them off quicker, but because the interest rate that I was able to get is so low due to the economy at the time, that it literally makes no sense for me to put that money into my student loans. When I consider what the investment return versus the benefit to paying off those loans early, there really is not a benefit to early repayment other than not having the payment each month.

Biggest issue for us is being able to afford a mortgage. We can't qualify for one until we pay off our loans. Property taxes where we live are 15-18k per year and the student loan payments make it so we can't afford a mortgage here based on monthly obligation. It sucks.
 

Cerulean

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Biggest issue for us is being able to afford a mortgage. We can't qualify for one until we pay off our loans. Property taxes where we live are 15-18k per year and the student loan payments make it so we can't afford a mortgage here based on monthly obligation. It sucks.

That’s terrible. I’m sorry to hear that. We plan to move to an area with lower taxes, otherwise they’d be comparable.

Hope some of the pressure is alleviated for you soon
 

Asscherhalo_lover

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That’s terrible. I’m sorry to hear that. We plan to move to an area with lower taxes, otherwise they’d be comparable.

Hope some of the pressure is alleviated for you soon

I wish we could, it's like this in every place that's commutable to our jobs and close enough to my Mother (she watches our kids). Moving jobs is not an option since I have an actual pension and good medical insurance. It is what it is, we'll get there someday! We certainly have no plans of staying here after retirement though. This area is not suitable unless you are loaded.
 

dizzyakira

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I can't afford a mortgage either. Fortunately I have no student debt (ROTC scholarship, pell grants, merit scholarships, ect.). But my salary isn't enough to buy a place in Brooklyn. The price of housing is outpacing my ability to save. And then I think since I have some savings, my daughter isn't eligible for or offered any financial aid. Ooooof. I'm grateful but bummed.
 

Asscherhalo_lover

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I can't afford a mortgage either. Fortunately I have no student debt (ROTC scholarship, pell grants, merit scholarships, ect.). But my salary isn't enough to buy a place in Brooklyn. The price of housing is outpacing my ability to save. And then I think since I have some savings, my daughter isn't eligible for or offered any financial aid. Ooooof. I'm grateful but bummed.

I live just outside of and work in Brooklyn so I know exactly what you're talking about. Have you looked into NACA? We just started the process.
 

rocks

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I don't think the next generation of parents, saddled with student loan debt, are going to let their kids go into such extreme debt. $1M, no way! Either that's the sticker price that most families never pay via financial aid, or most Americans (excluding 1%) just can't do that. Who's giving an 18 year old a 1M student loan for an English degree from Vassar? No way.

Vassar will subsidize any student who meets their standards for admission. Financial aid at vassar is extraordinarily generous.
 

voce

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I think what gets overlooked often is that private universities that have been around for some time (think Ivy League and equivalents like Stanford and MIT) only charge the full sticker price of tuition to students that can afford it through having rich parents. For the vast majority of students the financial aid takes the form of scholarships and grants, not loans. So they're actually paying just a fraction of the sticker price, often less than what they would pay at public universities.

In my first three years at college, my parents paid, towards a degree that I decided not to finish because it was both difficult and not something I enjoyed.

I took an extended leave, returned for a different degree and paid my own way for 2.5 years. Even though the federal aid and my merit based scholarships had already run out by then, the institution gave me such generous grants that at $62,000 sticker price per year for 2.5 years, I was able to graduate debt free, not having to take out loans. I think I made $15k a year working while studying, and I was even able to travel abroad for a summer through a program the school sponsored.

Private university costs at the right elite schools, therefore, are not necessarily terrible at all. I don't think I could have had the same experience for such little expense at a public school without a big endowment to subsidize the costs.

What I will say, is that, had I had financial sense and really understood what my parents were paying the first time for the degree I didn't finish, I probably would have made very different decisions and changed majors sooner or taken leave sooner. The fact that that was the degree my parents wanted to pay for, and I wasn't paying my own way for that degree, led to complications when I wanted to do anything different.
 
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Cerulean

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I think what gets overlooked often is that private universities that have been around for some time (think Ivy League and equivalents like Stanford and MIT) only charge the full sticker price of tuition to students that can afford it through having rich parents. For the vast majority of students the financial aid takes the form of scholarships and grants, not loans. So they're actually paying just a fraction of the sticker price, often less than what they would pay at public universities.

In my first three years at college, my parents paid, towards a degree that I decided not to finish because it was both difficult and not something I enjoyed.

I took an extended leave, returned for a different degree and paid my own way for 2.5 years. Even though the federal aid and my merit based scholarships had already run out by then, the institution gave me such generous grants that at $62,000 sticker price per year for 2.5 years, I was able to graduate debt free, not having to take out loans. I think I made $15k a year working while studying, and I was even able to travel abroad for a summer through a program the school sponsored.

Private university costs at the right elite schools, therefore, are not necessarily terrible at all. I don't think I could have had the same experience for such little expense at a public school without a big endowment to subsidize the costs.

What I will say, is that, had I had financial sense and really understood what my parents were paying the first time for the degree I didn't finish, I probably would have made very different decisions and changed majors sooner or taken leave sooner. The fact that that was the degree my parents wanted to pay for, and I wasn't paying my own way for that degree, led to complications when I wanted to do anything different.

I’m glad you had parents who could afford your tuition and that you had a great experience and were able to graduate debt free.

People who don’t qualify for subsidies and grants don’t necessarily have “rich parents”

Endowments for private schools vary widely

My mother raised us as a single mother and had a solidly middle class salary in an urban environment which was nowhere near enough to support both my sister and I in college and cover living expenses, but it was enough to disqualify us from need-based grants. She also was in the process of divorcing my stepfather and they wouldn’t look at her financial profile without including his, which was ludicrous. I was given huge merit scholarships from a school that had generous financial aid packages relative to competitors, and even with that, graduated with 100k+ of federal loan debt and many of my peers were in the same situation - it really is case by case

My husband as another example - this is grad school so quite different - didn’t qualify for any needbased grants and paid full tuition despite both parents being below the poverty line and living on disability
 

MRBXXXFVVS1

Brilliant_Rock
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For those who sacrificed so much, overcame hardships, and paid off a lot or all of their student loans, would you support the government forgiving student loan debt for others? Or for people whose parents sacrificed so much?
 

LilAlex

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I did some math and in 20 years time, college tuition will be about $1M/student at a private school, including room and board.

No one pays list price anymore. The sticker price keeps climbing and that is a way to have the well-off (think much of PS) support the offsets that go to those who can not afford the school. Find the "typical" cost of attendance and it is much, much lower.

If your kid is reasonably bright and resources are limiting, they will be able to go to most middling private schools with enormous merit scholarships. For the elite schools, all aid is need-based and not merit based, and the definition of "need" at the Ivys (for instance) is pretty liberal. So all that is good news.

If you have money and your mediocre student has their heart set on an expensive private school, then you will probably be on the hook for the full crazy cost. Try not to let that happen; those kids may be better served at the state flagship, although at the potential "cost" of little individual attention and a bewildering administrative maze to navigate.

Like their parents, our kids gravitated toward top publics; unfortunately they are not in our state so the cost advantage is a lot less :cool2:.

So: those projections 20 years into the future are not helpful or valid; most of the recent increase in college costs have not been borne by the vast majority of students.

There are online FAFSA modelers/"calculators" that let you gauge your expected contribution.

My last kid is done next month...but there's always grad school...
 

elizat

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For those who sacrificed so much, overcame hardships, and paid off a lot or all of their student loans, would you support the government forgiving student loan debt for others? Or for people whose parents sacrificed so much?

For me, no, I don't support wide spread loan forgiveness at all. I say this as someone that still has student debt and struggled to pay it at times during my early career.

What about all the people who have paid the debt? Or the sacrifices parents made?

I would support a program where people can apply to have a small amount discharged if they did not complete the degree and/or it had not led to gainful employment, capped at or near 10k, one time with clearly set forth factors. So many of loans in default are something like 7k or less and it's an impediment on credit scores and the ability to make better choices.

I think a better path is fixing the broken income contingent repayment plans that widely vary and don't seem to work, as well as more financial literacy discussion with student borrowers before they take large loans out for career paths that are not high income paths.

Eta:


Only 32 people actually met full discharge under income contingent since 1995! That wasn't how it was supposed to go when introduced.
 
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ItsMainelyYou

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For those who sacrificed so much, overcame hardships, and paid off a lot or all of their student loans, would you support the government forgiving student loan debt for others? Or for people whose parents sacrificed so much?

Yes. As someone who tread the harder path, I would. It is the only way forward as the last first world without free or heavily subsidized education. America could easily subsidize all education, if we wanted. We already rank low middling in the education pack(along with most other quality metrics) and it has much to do with inequitable allocation of resources. It's foolish and shortsighted. I wish there had been more help for me, but I'm not going to prevent the next generation receiving said help. For me, that's like saying no to the wheel because I only knew the sledge. It's our future.
 
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