Blue Sapphire – rarity, pricing, availability

[Roger Dery]

Hi everyone, - sorry no pics in this post -

As there is much talk on this forum relating to blue Sapphires, their availability, and of course their pricing - I offer the following synopsis as to what we all can expect to see currently and maybe even a little peek into the coming year.

Within the trade, everyone I speak with that handles finer high-end Sapphires is stating “have you seen the prices lately?” Some would say it is do savvy buyers and connoisseurs putting their funds into gemstones (and specifically Sapphires) as a hedge. There is a known demand for hard assets by those who are not confident about the long term value of US dollars, Euros and other hard currencies.

But I am not convinced this is the only thing.

There is demand from the “new wealthy” in North America, and also from those in China that have acquired status and want to flaunt their wealth.

And now a little data:
Demand for Sapphires has increased in consumer markets worldwide, (this we know) and therefore exports from Sri Lanka are booming. Sapphires account for nearly 86 percent of all gemstones exported from Sri Lanka and the latest official figures show Sapphire exports increased 20.1 percent in value and 34.5 percent in carats in 2012 (over 2011).

Among the top markets (in value terms) for Sapphires from Sri Lanka are Thailand, the US, Hong Kong, Switzerland, Singapore and China while the largest volume market is India.

However the strongest growth for Sapphires is in China and dealers confirm that this demand is continuing in 2013. In 2012 exports to China grew 280 percent in carats and 188 percent in value over 2011 stats. In addition, a large percentage of the gemstones exported to Thailand would be for the China market via Hong Kong.

As a colored stone vendor trying to provide finer goods, when I am reviewing new goods coming in, and I see my cost is now near what I am selling older goods for, it is a little scary. For you all as consumers, I am sure it is even more complicated as you are seeing such a wide disparity in pricing on the various dealers websites.

I do not have an answer to the dilemma, and I don’t believe any of the various custom faceters do either. We are in the same boat. But in time we will all have to adjust to the “new reality” in Sapphire pricing. Especially knowing there is a finite number of gem roughs left in the ground, and that governments from producing countries are moving towards securing ecologically inclined mining standards.

I am hopeful that this info is useful, and that those looking for gemmy Sapphires have an appreciation for their unique find.

 

[bluebirrrd]

Thank you, Roger, valuable info indeed. You're right that lack of photos is an issue so I'll add one for good measure. It's being set by DanielM, and though I'm sorry to have missed the lower prices of the past at least it was still reasonable unlike where things may be headed.

 

[katharath]

The info is much appreciated.

And bluebirrd, that is a beauty! I'm so jealous. I don't think I'll ever own a quality sapphire of significant size at this point!

 

[JewelFreak]

I've given up on having something as beautiful as yours, Bluebirrd. Thanks for the rundown on the markets, Roger. Stunning numbers.

--- Laurie

 

[JaneSmith]

Thank you very much for this info.

 

[bluebirrrd]

I've given up on having something as beautiful as yours, Bluebirrd. Thanks for the rundown on the markets, Roger. Stunning numbers.

--- Laurie

JF, your beautiful blue spinel is an inspiration to me and something I've given up on myself. I admire it so. Kath, mine isn't large but it seems like those that are have price tags to start rivaling diamonds.

 

[smitcompton]

Hi,

Thanks Roger. Beautiful sapphire bluebird.

 

[minousbijoux]

Roger thanks for the update. How would you compare blue sapphires to price appreciation of other stones - say other corundum and ruby, and then other categories like spinel, zircon, and any other stone type you'd care to elaborate on?

TIA

 

[Roger Dery]

Hi Minou, would like to respond, but need to be back at my home computer. Visiting Mom today!

 

[ilovegemstones]

Great post. I am going to treasure my upcoming natural sapphire pendant! The stone was hard to find but I got lots of help from here! At first I regretted paying what I did when there is food to put on the table and three little ones to look after, but I am feeling better after reading this. Thanks!

 

[minousbijoux]

Hi Minou, would like to respond, but need to be back at my home computer. Visiting Mom today!

I'm sorry to bother you, Roger! I should've said something about please take your time, as I suspected you would be with Mom! So by all means, take your time! We look forward to hearing back whenever its convenient...

and for those new to the forum, Roger is an excellent precision cutter whose favorite stone to cut happens to be sapphires.

 

[chrono]

Hoping to hear back from Roger soon. The news, although disheartening, is not a surprise as we've seen sapphire pricing double from $1k/ct up to $2k/ct fairly recently. I don't see pricing coming down anytime soon either.

 

[Roger Dery]

Hi Minou, would like to respond, but need to be back at my home computer. Visiting Mom today!

I'm sorry to bother you, Roger! I should've said something about please take your time, as I suspected you would be with Mom! So by all means, take your time! We look forward to hearing back whenever its convenient...

and for those new to the forum, Roger is an excellent precision cutter whose favorite stone to cut happens to be sapphires.

Yes, Minou, all so true.

I have a faceting student here for the week. I will respond, but it may not be today. And then, after some Sapphire discussion I'll look into covering some other gem types. But, my interest was certainly peaked by the revelations regarding Sapphire.

Acquiring data on other gem types may not be so easy to retrieve, as I was already digging into figures produced by the Sri Lankan gov't since it affected me directly.

More later....

 

[ilovegemstones]

I was just wondering when the prices skyrocketed. I bought my stone at the end of November 2012.

 

[chrono]

It started prior to 2012, that's for sure. It was already creeping up but took a significant jump around 2009 to 2010 when the British royals sparked a blue sapphire revival of sorts with their engagement.

 

[Rockdiamond]

Great post Roger!!!
I concur- we're seeing the same thing here in NYC.
Do you think that higher prices may affect how many sapphires are heated?
Will this in turn make the difference in price between heated and non heated Sapphires even greater in your opinion?
Or will the heated stones follow the same price increases?

 

[distracts]

*grabbyhands all the sapphires*

 

[chrono]

I am concerned we will see more undisclosed diffused blue sapphires in the market in an attempt to cash in on the higher sapphire prices.

 

[Roger Dery]

Roger thanks for the update. How would you compare blue sapphires to price appreciation of other stones - say other corundum and ruby, and then other categories like spinel, zircon, and any other stone type you'd care to elaborate on?

Hi Minou,
Answers to your query could take days and many pages to cover well. And, as you can see from the other intelligent posts/questions that followed yours, this could go on for a fair bit of time. So I'll take a little bit at a time, while I have time.

Finer Sapphire pricing took a bit of a downturn in 2008, 2009 and maybe into 2010. And this is when the true bargains were had, and dealers like me put money into them, knowing it would not stay that way. Unfortunately, those goods are likely sold and long gone.

But when the economy in the US and other developed countries rebounded, pricing for Sapphires did the same, but did not stop there. After the big royal wedding in the UK, and much other fanfare, Sapphire became the consumers choice for significant gem purchases, in addition to being used heavily for engagement rings. It is still a favorite, and it is my own favorite as well.

Comparing fine Sapphires to Ruby
Of the big 3 in colored gemstones, fine Sapphires (in either unheated or "heat only" goods) can still be found, and within reason. Fine Rubies on the other hand are problematic. In that, most all are heated - and when heated - due to the ancient ovens they are heated in, still have residue from when 'other' items were heated in them. Therefore, a small amount of 'whatever it was' is allowed to make it into any orifice [however small it may be]. And, if heated to 1950*C to improve color, it is possible some elements have entered the crystal lattice of the Ruby structure. This may be deliberate, or an unintended consequence. Either way, it has affected the value of Rubies because they are all now suspect.

Even if a dealer has a Ruby, with a quality report from one of the major labs, and it states "Minor Residue present" it is the kiss of death as a consumer may not know it is often a byproduct of using equipment that was once used for other purposes - with no malice intended.

Retail jewelers often due not have the knowledge regarding these processes to explain it well, and therefore avoid it altogether. And usually under this situation, they will just offer a blanket statement "that all Rubies are treated" to cover themselves.

It could be said that Ruby has 'lost its luster' in recent years due the treatment situation. As for pricing, even Rubies with minor residue present have not gone up very much compared to Sapphire. And, in watching what is happening within the trade, there are fewer Rubies being sold (in the finer qualities).

Hope you all find this helpful.
- may be a day or so before I get back to respond further. And I will try and address them in order as they came in.

 

[minousbijoux]

Roger:

Thanks so much. I had no idea that rubies had been so negatively affected. I had gotten the impression though, from various chit chat and board discussions, that treated rubies were somehow much more accepted here (the US) than elsewhere in the world. And I have been assuming that all of what I see around me in the way of rubies is lead glass filled, unless it belongs to a connoisseur who cares about treatment. Judging by rough dealers as well, it seems that the majority of rough is coming already treated (this is only my observation and could be completely incorrect), so its hard to know what is "acceptable" and what is not.

I also had the impression that the loosening of the embargo with Myanmar would have a huge effect on ruby prices, as greater demand would begin anew for the coveted Burmese stones. But that might be something I assumed without data to support it.

Anyway, Roger, as always, thank you for taking the time, and we welcome your sage counsel and wise words whenever it suits you. I am really happy that you continue to post here!

 

[epgs]

Roger thanks for the update. How would you compare blue sapphires to price appreciation of other stones - say other corundum and ruby, and then other categories like spinel, zircon, and any other stone type you'd care to elaborate on?

Hi Minou,
Answers to your query could take days and many pages to cover well. And, as you can see from the other intelligent posts/questions that followed yours, this could go on for a fair bit of time. So I'll take a little bit at a time, while I have time.

Finer Sapphire pricing took a bit of a downturn in 2008, 2009 and maybe into 2010. And this is when the true bargains were had, and dealers like me put money into them, knowing it would not stay that way. Unfortunately, those goods are likely sold and long gone.

But when the economy in the US and other developed countries rebounded, pricing for Sapphires did the same, but did not stop there. After the big royal wedding in the UK, and much other fanfare, Sapphire became the consumers choice for significant gem purchases, in addition to being used heavily for engagement rings. It is still a favorite, and it is my own favorite as well.

Comparing fine Sapphires to Ruby
Of the big 3 in colored gemstones, fine Sapphires (in either unheated or "heat only" goods) can still be found, and within reason. Fine Rubies on the other hand are problematic. In that, most all are heated - and when heated - due to the ancient ovens they are heated in, still have residue from when 'other' items were heated in them. Therefore, a small amount of 'whatever it was' is allowed to make it into any orifice [however small it may be]. And, if heated to 1950*C to improve color, it is possible some elements have entered the crystal lattice of the Ruby structure. This may be deliberate, or an unintended consequence. Either way, it has affected the value of Rubies because they are all now suspect.

Even if a dealer has a Ruby, with a quality report from one of the major labs, and it states "Minor Residue present" it is the kiss of death as a consumer may not know it is often a byproduct of using equipment that was once used for other purposes - with no malice intended.

Retail jewelers often due not have the knowledge regarding these processes to explain it well, and therefore avoid it altogether. And usually under this situation, they will just offer a blanket statement "that all Rubies are treated" to cover themselves.

It could be said that Ruby has 'lost its luster' in recent years due the treatment situation. As for pricing, even Rubies with minor residue present have not gone up very much compared to Sapphire. And, in watching what is happening within the trade, there are fewer Rubies being sold (in the finer qualities).

Hope you all find this helpful.
- may be a day or so before I get back to respond further. And I will try and address them in order as they came in.

Wow, great post and super informative. All the points of the price increases in the sapphire market are all covered in this post!

Personally, i own minor heated ruby and sapphire in fine quality. Will show them soon in a seperate post when i can get pics up.

But my opinion on the heated matter is that as long as the seller discloses the treatment and the gemstone is still beautiful to you in your eyes then to me its okay. Unfortunately, gemstones are imperfect and us being humans always try and change and improve things the best we can to make them suitable for what we need them for. Also, fine quality unheated/untreated gemstones are a a true rarity and also very very expensive and out of reach for most of us. Unless you have deep pockets!

 

[Roger Dery]

Great post Roger!!!
I concur- we're seeing the same thing here in NYC.
Do you think that higher prices may affect how many sapphires are heated?
Will this in turn make the difference in price between heated and non heated Sapphires even greater in your opinion?
Or will the heated stones follow the same price increases?

Hi David,
Thanks for posting.

Q- Do you think that higher prices may affect how many sapphires are heated?
A- One may see higher prices as an encouragement, but in the end, it is only the Sapphire that CAN be improved by heating that will be. It is possible that the rough that is a borderline case may be risked by heating. But we're only talking about a 5% (or less) difference in numbers of stones. In the scheme of it all, it is an insignificant amount.

Q- Will this in turn make the difference in price between heated and non heated Sapphires even greater in your opinion?
A- In my opinion, the differential in costs between [heated and non-heated] will continue to grow. Dealers in Sri Lanka have the internet as well as us or any other country. They have the time and inclination to make it their business to determine what Sapphire buyers like, and don't like. They watch forums just like this one. So they know what you all want.

Q- Or will the heated stones follow the same price increases?
A- Both heated and non-heated prices will rise. I am convinced non-heated will rise at a faster rate than heated. It would only be a wild guess as to how much that would be.

 

[chrono]

Roger,
What is the forecast of sapphires coming out of the ground (mining) looking like for the next 5 years, 10 years, etc? Given that the demand is still increasing, are they being met or should we expect a more difficult search for the right e-ring sapphire?

 

[minousbijoux]

Yes, and did the new find in Madagascar pay off? Is it producing or is it anticipated to produce?

 

[Roger Dery]

I was just wondering when the prices skyrocketed. I bought my stone at the end of November 2012.

Hopefully I've covered your question in my recent follow up post. If not, please advise and I'll offer up what I know.

 

[Roger Dery]

I am concerned we will see more undisclosed diffused blue sapphires in the market in an attempt to cash in on the higher sapphire prices.

Hi Chrono,
this is always a concern, and one that we in the trade need to be diligent about. At present, one can be fairly assured that the goods coming directly from Sri Lanka are not BE diffused.

Goods having come from Thailand stand a good chance that something nefarious has been done. Well, nefarious in our eyes as they may think it 'normal'. It is not uncommon for a Thai dealer to acquire Sri Lankan Sapphires and work them to the 'right color' that meets the desires of unsuspecting buyers.

I am not making a blanket statement stating that they all do this. I am saying it is likely to happen this way.

 

[Roger Dery]

I had no idea that rubies had been so negatively affected. I had gotten the impression though, from various chit chat and board discussions, that treated rubies were somehow much more accepted here (the US) than elsewhere in the world. And I have been assuming that all of what I see around me in the way of rubies is lead glass filled, unless it belongs to a connoisseur who cares about treatment. Judging by rough dealers as well, it seems that the majority of rough is coming already treated (this is only my observation and could be completely incorrect), so its hard to know what is "acceptable" and what is not.

I also had the impression that the loosening of the embargo with Myanmar would have a huge effect on ruby prices, as greater demand would begin anew for the coveted Burmese stones. But that might be something I assumed without data to support it.

Anyway, Roger, as always, thank you for taking the time, and we welcome your sage counsel and wise words whenever it suits you. I am really happy that you continue to post here!

Minou,
It is true that Ruby with very minor residue (after heating) is much more accepted, especially by the trade. And, from what I have learned, it is just as accepted in other developed nations as well.

The Embargo
There is the apparent effect, and then there is the actual effect of the embargo. It was apparent in the eyes of the political type that the embargo would send a message to the Burmese government. The actual effect was that Ruby and Jadeite were trans-exported through 3rd party countries. It meant nothing really to the Burmese dealers. They could sell their goods to most any country, and especially Thailand and China. They could be fashioned there, then re-sold in jewelry or as loose goods. And then they could be claimed as being from a different country than Burma (even with documentation).

January 2011 was the first time a Customs agent from CBP asked me on re-entry if any of the rough goods I was importing were Ruby (and where were they from?). The Tom Lantos Act went into effect in July 2008. So it isn't like they have been stringent in how things are handled. In addition, it wasn't till summer of 2011 when agents from CPB took their two week crash course on identification of gems from GIA.

Hope you all find this a little bit helpful.

 

[Roger Dery]

Roger thanks for the update. How would you compare blue sapphires to price appreciation of other stones - say other corundum and ruby, and then other categories like spinel, zircon, and any other stone type you'd care to elaborate on?

Hi Minou,
Answers to your query could take days and many pages to cover well. And, as you can see from the other intelligent posts/questions that followed yours, this could go on for a fair bit of time. So I'll take a little bit at a time, while I have time.

Finer Sapphire pricing took a bit of a downturn in 2008, 2009 and maybe into 2010. And this is when the true bargains were had, and dealers like me put money into them, knowing it would not stay that way. Unfortunately, those goods are likely sold and long gone.

But when the economy in the US and other developed countries rebounded, pricing for Sapphires did the same, but did not stop there. After the big royal wedding in the UK, and much other fanfare, Sapphire became the consumers choice for significant gem purchases, in addition to being used heavily for engagement rings. It is still a favorite, and it is my own favorite as well.

Comparing fine Sapphires to Ruby
Of the big 3 in colored gemstones, fine Sapphires (in either unheated or "heat only" goods) can still be found, and within reason. Fine Rubies on the other hand are problematic. In that, most all are heated - and when heated - due to the ancient ovens they are heated in, still have residue from when 'other' items were heated in them. Therefore, a small amount of 'whatever it was' is allowed to make it into any orifice [however small it may be]. And, if heated to 1950*C to improve color, it is possible some elements have entered the crystal lattice of the Ruby structure. This may be deliberate, or an unintended consequence. Either way, it has affected the value of Rubies because they are all now suspect.

Even if a dealer has a Ruby, with a quality report from one of the major labs, and it states "Minor Residue present" it is the kiss of death as a consumer may not know it is often a byproduct of using equipment that was once used for other purposes - with no malice intended.

Retail jewelers often due not have the knowledge regarding these processes to explain it well, and therefore avoid it altogether. And usually under this situation, they will just offer a blanket statement "that all Rubies are treated" to cover themselves.

It could be said that Ruby has 'lost its luster' in recent years due the treatment situation. As for pricing, even Rubies with minor residue present have not gone up very much compared to Sapphire. And, in watching what is happening within the trade, there are fewer Rubies being sold (in the finer qualities).

Hope you all find this helpful.
- may be a day or so before I get back to respond further. And I will try and address them in order as they came in.

Wow, great post and super informative. All the points of the price increases in the sapphire market are all covered in this post!

Personally, i own minor heated ruby and sapphire in fine quality. Will show them soon in a seperate post when i can get pics up.

But my opinion on the heated matter is that as long as the seller discloses the treatment and the gemstone is still beautiful to you in your eyes then to me its okay. Unfortunately, gemstones are imperfect and us being humans always try and change and improve things the best we can to make them suitable for what we need them for. Also, fine quality unheated/untreated gemstones are a a true rarity and also very very expensive and out of reach for most of us. Unless you have deep pockets!

epgs,
Generally speaking, this is something new buyers are not clued in on. When I am in-country working with dealers and brokers and sometimes the actual miner, we may look through several hundred to several thousand roughs to find the few worth keeping.

Part of the reason I take several jewelers with me to Africa on each trip, is to break the cycle of: "oh, I'll just order 3 matched pairs of 2ct Sapphires for you to select from". Finding fine stones is rare, but then finding very nice makes, in matching fine stones is extraordinary, indeed.

 

[Roger Dery]

Roger,
What is the forecast of sapphires coming out of the ground (mining) looking like for the next 5 years, 10 years, etc? Given that the demand is still increasing, are they being met or should we expect a more difficult search for the right e-ring sapphire?

Chrono,
Even when mining publications prognosticate, they normally release info with a caveat. Now that caveat may be as simple as the obvious such as: that what is in the ground is not predictable. But often there are other factors that will and do affect the mining situations. Some examples are:

1- weather related such as monsoons in Madagascar or Sri Lanka
1a- as of this writing, there is a 'storm of locusts' descending on Antannanarivo in Madagascar, interrupting all work in addition to mining
2- government intervention (of various levels) such as the Tanzanian govt not allowing export of Tanzanite over 1 gram
3- crime in the area, either organized for free-style
4- tribal intervention (since it seems most mining sites end up in remote areas of developing nations)
4a- additional tribal example - next month, we have to pay a fee to enter a new mine location run by a local tribesmen near Namanga Kenya
5- as pockets of gem rough are found, it is typical for a "rush" of non-local miners to show up and take over.

There are further examples here, but the point is that attempting to look that far out (5 to 10 years), is not really predictable. In my opinion, once you've found the right stone, if it is even close to your price range, why experience the frustration of trying to locate the same or similar at a slightly lower cost only to have your primary selection snatched out from under you. I just don't think it is worth it, but this is only my opinion.

As to: "should we expect a more difficult search for the right e-ring sapphire?"
I believe the answer is yes, since as some new discoveries take place, they are filling the gap of the mine sites that are depleted. It is a continuing cycle that has been repeated over and over.

I hope I have satisfied your query.

 

[FrekeChild]

Roger, what kind of effect has Princess Diana/Kate's ring had on blue sapphires?

The info in this thread makes me want to hoard the few sapphires I have...