Diamond prices between now and Jan '06?

[KristyDarling]

Hi there,

Help, advice needed! I read in another thread recently that diamond prices tend to go up before the Christmas and Valentine''s Day holidays. DH and I had originally planned to buy my upgrade diamond in January 2006, but I worry that waiting until then might mean more $$$ (and less diamond!). Given that it''s early October, should we buy now before prices creep up? Or are we already too late? Also, what kinds of price increases are we talking about here -- are they typically around 2-3% like inflation, or something more significant than that? I know that no one can predict the future, but it''d be great if someone who has observed the price fluctuations over the years can offer some insight.

(FYI, we''re planning on something along the lines of 2.5-3.0 ct range RB ideal G SI1. )

Thanks so much.
Kristy

 

[strmrdr]

No one can predict accuratly what is going to happen with prices.
If its a good Christmas season Id expect atleast a 5% price rape by DeBeers in Jan/Feb time frame.
I dont see any huge price changes until then but you never know.

Most price increases happen at the begining of the year but not always.

Supplies are tight on 2ct plus good quality diamonds so it might be a matter of finding one than a price increase later this year early Jan.

 

[strmrdr]

For example doing a PS search for 2.5-3ct G si1 turns up 0 on the search by cut.
That means none of the PS vendors have them in stock.
The regular search turns up about 20 or so of unknown cut.
Some of which are total dogs just by the limited amount of information available.

 

[denverappraiser]

Forecasting accurately is difficult, especial when it's about the future.

People regularly ask me questions like this or whether the price of gold will go up or down tomorrow. I dearly wish I could do this. It would make me a very wealthy man indeed.

Leonid,

This makes an interesting question for Pricescope. Do you keep the historical data? If so, you've got a wonderful dataset of offers for sale of lots and lots of diamonds over time. You may be in a better position than anyone on the planet to spot patterns and this could be some valuable information. It would be especially useful if you can separate the 'virtual' stones from the 'actual' stones because each stone will appear only once and it increases the likelyhood that the reason a particular stone disappeared from the database is because someone bought it for approximately the price listed. The virtual stones may have some good value as well but there are quite a few reasons other than a sale at that price that will cause a particular stone to depart from the listings.

Neil Beaty
GG(GIA) ISA NAJA
Professional Appraials in Denver

 

[pricescope]

We published some stats in this thread https://www.pricescope.com/community/threads/price-hike-a-hype.15538/

Idex, for example, is publishing diamond indexes online: http://idexonline.com/Diamond_Index_Drivers.asp

 

[KristyDarling]

Thanks much, this is really helpful. I will also look up those threads provided by Leonid.

Does anyone know WHY large stones are in such short supply?

 

[strmrdr]

Date: 10/2/2005 10:31:01 AM
Author: KristyDarling
Thanks much, this is really helpful. I will also look up those threads provided by Leonid.


Does anyone know WHY large stones are in such short supply?

All you will get is guesses.
My guess is that someone someplace is holding on to the rough waiting for higher prices.