18-24" of Snow for NYC!

[Asscherhalo_lover]

Stay safe fellow NYC/Long Island folks!

METEOROPOULOS UPDATE: Sunday, 1/25/15 12:12PM
*** BLIZZARD WATCHES POSTED FOR NYC METRO ***
*** ACCUMULATIONS OF 18-24"+ FOR NYC METRO ***
*** COMPUTER MODELS ALL SHOW A BIG HIT NOW ***
*** TIGHT GRADIENT LEAVES LITTLE ROOM FOR ERROR ***
*** ANOTHER TWO STORMS FOR FRIDAY & NEXT WEEK ***
TIMING: Begins with light snow here and there on Monday during the day from a passing front, then the heavy stuff comes in Monday evening and continues well into Tuesday and Tuesday night. I will fine tune these estimated times later tonight.
BLIZZARD WATCHES:
The NWS has issued Blizzard Watches for the NYC, all of Long Island, Coastal New Jersey and Connecticut and the immediate Hudson Valley. Expect upgrades to Blizzard Warnings later this afternoon. Expect very heavy snows and high winds (40-50MPH gusts in NYC, 50-60 eastern LI) throughout the entire NYC Metro area. Temperatures will be in the upper teens to lower 20's during the height of the storm, so no mixing. This is an ALL SNOW EVENT.
ACCUMULATIONS:
I will post a full and detailed snowfall forecast this evening, but expect the NYC Metro area to get dumped with a general 18-24", with possibly MORE for eastern Long Island and LESS for north-western New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania. BUT we will have to see where the mesoscale banding sets up that could potentially dump huge totals very rapidly. THIS feature in any big and powerful storm is really only determined as the snow is falling and where and when these intense bands occur. Back in 2006, we broke NYC's all-time snowfall record for one storm with 27" when one of these mesoscale bands setup up right over us, dumping snow at rates of 3-4" per hour that morning! THIS will determine who get the highest snowfall totals. We shall see as the storm gets going where these set up shop.
COMPUTER MODELS:
Computer models went nuts agin last night with the EURO continuing it's attack on obscene amounts of snow for our area, and other models also showing a big hit. Even the NAM that was stubborn by keeping the storm too far east for us to get big snows - made a complete 180 degree turn (I expected this since it is a bad model over 36 hours) and in the past hour, jumped onboard with 2 foot totals for NYC as well! The 12z GFS backed off a bit (although still a big hit), but meteorologists are saying it sampled incorrectly. Long story short, the models are all onboard for a big event in varying intensities, which is great news if you love snow.

 

[marcy]

Stay safe and warm! It's actually near 50 in Wyoming (it's very windy but warm).

 

[AGBF]

Stay safe fellow NYC/Long Island folks!

Coastal Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts are supposed to be hit hard, too. The mayor of Fairfield, Connecticut (a neighboring town in my county) says he expects two feet. One year gemgirl and I compared forecasts. She is just across Long Island Sound from me. Our weather is usually exactly the same. Of course compared to Buffalo, NY...what did they get, 8 feet in one snowstorm? This is paltry!

Deb/AGBF

 

[ruby59]

Rhode Island here. If the supermarkets are an indication, people are freaking out. I am hoping it is just a false alarm and the storm will veer off. But getting prepared just in case.

 

[Asscherhalo_lover]

We've been upgraded to 24"-36", this is insane if it actually comes close to this!

 

[AGBF]

We've been upgraded to 24"-36", this is insane if it actually comes close to this!

We have also. We have had over two feet of snow here during my lifetime, but I am unsure we have had three. I also, somehow, doubt we'll get a full three feet this time. Drifts are another matter. We have a generator, but drifts can cover it and render it inoperable if we cannot clear them.

Deb/AGBF

 

[KaeKae]

Stay warm and safe east coasters!
Maybe you can use the time to admire your sparklies

 

[AGBF]

Stay warm and safe east coasters!
Maybe you can use the time to admire your sparklies

Where are you, KaeKae?

Deb

 

[Bonfire]

Wow batten down the hatches, it looks like quite the system. Stay safe East Coast friends!

 

[PintoBean]

Thanking God I work from home, but poor hubby has an employer that is ...fill in blank with bad word lol

 

[ruby59]

Any of you East Coasters old enough / remember the Blizzard of 78? Wonder if this will come close.

 

[AGBF]

Any of you East Coasters old enough / remember the Blizzard of 78? Wonder if this will come close.

Definitely. I was just married and living in a condominium. My husband went to work in New York City that day, if I recall correctly. The only reason I think this (I do not recall on what day of the week it occurred) is that I recall spending the day with my best friend from upstairs and her toddler son, Marc, who is now 38. (Her second son, my godson, was not yet even a gleam in her eye!) I remember the governor of Connecticut closing all the roads. I remember the snow being over two feet high, at least in places. That was quite a storm...at least for Marc! But even I remember it.

Deb/AGBF

 

[AGBF]

Well..this may be hyperbole, but it got my attention. From the front page of the on-line edition of"The New York Times" (italics mine).

"Mayor Bill de Blasio said on Sunday that the storm approaching on Monday was likely to be one of the biggest to ever strike New York City, and he urged people to stay indoors to avoid powerful winds, low visibility and “treacherous” road conditions.

The National Weather Service, which issued a blizzard watch for the greater New York City area, forecast gusts of wind up to 50 miles per hour and snow accumulation of “at least one to two feet.”

But Mr. de Blasio said the storm could bring up to three feet of snow, beginning with flurries late Monday morning, and that the heaviest snowfall would probably come Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Schools will be open on Monday but are likely to close on Tuesday, Mr. de Blasio said. Alternate side of the street parking has been canceled, along with the city’s annual count of the homeless population, which had been scheduled for Monday night.

'My message to New Yorkers is to prepare for something worse than we have seen before,' the mayor said on Sunday afternoon while standing inside a Sanitation Department garage near West 14th Street. 'Now is the time to get ready for this extreme weather.'"

AGBF

 

[Maria D]

Any of you East Coasters old enough / remember the Blizzard of 78? Wonder if this will come close.

I lived in Massachusetts. Some of the drifts in our driveway were 5' high. We had no school (I was in high school) for a week, and then it was February vacation or we would have had even more snow days.

I don't think this will come close in magnitude - but I'm no meteorologist!

One of the things that made Blizzard of '78 so remarkable was the fact that it took us by surprise. Forecasting wasn't as accurate then as it is now causing New Englanders to be more or less desensitized to weather reports. The weather men said it was going to snow a lot, but no one said, "Stay home this is going to be HUGE." So people went to work and then left to get stuck for hours in 2-3 feet of snow, with blizzard winds. Today, we're extremely well forewarned, thankfully.

 

[KaeKae]

Stay warm and safe east coasters!
Maybe you can use the time to admire your sparklies

Where are you, KaeKae?

Deb

I'm in SoCal, but I'm a Jersey Girl at heart. I remember these storms, both the excitement and the stress. It's so much more fun for the kids!

 

[KaeKae]

Any of you East Coasters old enough / remember the Blizzard of 78? Wonder if this will come close.

Definitely! I was in sixth grade. My father didn't go to work in Manhattan, which was huge for him. He worked for the PBS station, tv doesn't stop for snow. I also remember shoveling and shoveling....then the plow would come by and we'd shovel more...I don't remember if we lost power, but we probably did.

 

[zoebartlett]

My area of northern New England is supposed to get 18-25 inches, and others may get 10-18 inches.

I was only 5 during the blizzard of '78 so I don't remember it, but I've heard plenty of stories from my parents. We have family pictures of me sitting on top of a giant snow mountain at the end of the driveway, and it's unreal how tall it was.

 

[arkieb1]

Stay safe and warm everyone!!!! We are suffering high heat, 99% humidity and monsoonal systems in our part of the world - very different weather extremes in both climates....

 

[Asscherhalo_lover]

My school in Brooklyn gets out today at 2:50, here's hoping it's not horrific going home and they cancel tomorrow at a reasonable hour. Either way I wouldn't come in but i would sleep better just knowing. Fingers crossed! Stay safe everyone!

 

[AGBF]

My school in Brooklyn gets out today at 2:50, here's hoping it's not horrific going home and they cancel tomorrow at a reasonable hour. Either way I wouldn't come in but i would sleep better just knowing. Fingers crossed! Stay safe everyone!

You may, now, be at your school not at the keyboard, but I hope you keep safe, too. I keep hearing that the problem for us here on the coast will not be the amount of snow, but the wind speed which will "exceed hurricane speed". (Obviously the speaker means minimum speed required to make a storm a hurricane!) Again and again I hear that the strongest part-the blizzard- will be a coastal storm and localized between New Jersey and Boston. And there are references to Hurricane Sandy.

Do we need to climate-proof cities?...http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/01/07/adaptation-2

AGBF

 

[MarionC]

We've been upgraded to 24"-36", this is insane if it actually comes close to this!

exciting and scary!

 

[Asscherhalo_lover]

My school in Brooklyn gets out today at 2:50, here's hoping it's not horrific going home and they cancel tomorrow at a reasonable hour. Either way I wouldn't come in but i would sleep better just knowing. Fingers crossed! Stay safe everyone!

You may, now, be at your school not at the keyboard, but I hope you keep safe, too. I keep hearing that the problem for us here on the coast will not be the amount of snow, but the wind speed which will "exceed hurricane speed". (Obviously the speaker means minimum speed required to make a storm a hurricane!) Again and again I hear that the strongest part-the blizzard- will be a coastal storm and localized between New Jersey and Boston. And there are references to Hurricane Sandy.

Do we need to climate-proof cities?...http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/01/07/adaptation-2

AGBF

I posted from my iPad at school, no worries I don't post while driving! I had some horrible flooding at my old apartment from Sandy but since have moved to higher ground so I should be fine regarding flooding. It's the wind that I'm also worried about. It's practically a guarentee that we will lose power at some point.

 

[diamondseeker2006]

Thinking of all our PS friends in the northeast and pray that you all stay safe and don't lose power!!!!

 

[ruby59]

I agree, Maria. They knew it was coming, but not how much or when. Everything was as usual that day - kids had school, people went to work. Then around 11 AM it started to come down heavy, something like 2 to 3 inches per hour. With the heavy winds, it was white-out conditions - a blizzard. Instead of gradual dismissals, everyone was let out at the same time. I remember being on Route 95, trying to get home. It was gridlocked. People had to abandon their cars right on the highway and try to walk home. Many got stranded in the city and had to find a place to hunker down. It took a week for the State of Rhode Island to get back to normal.

I can not remember if we lost power. But does anyone remember the Ice Storm that followed? We lost power for over a week. I remember walking the streets trying to find a restaurant that advertised they had a generator to get some hot food and especially a cup of coffee.

 

[ame]

YICK! I hope everyone stocked up on some food before now. I've seen some posted photos around the net of RIDICULOUS lines at grocery stores.

 

[Calliecake]

Please stay safe and warm everyone!

 

[AGBF]

YICK! I hope everyone stocked up on some food before now. I've seen some posted photos around the net of RIDICULOUS lines at grocery stores.

The grocery store parking lot at the store where I usually go was crowed yesterday, but not the store. Today I went to the hardware store (I called ahead rather than waste a trip) to get two to three way adapters. To my amazement they had absolutely everything in stock! Shopping there before the snow was like going Christmas shopping. The only downside was that it was like shopping on Christmas Eve. Even worse. The entire town was in this tiny village store and the checkout line snaked through the aisles. But I actually enjoyed the experience. It took about 45 minutes to get to the head of the line, but it was very collegial. No one pushed or shoved or was rude or "New York-y". Then instead of leaving with just adapters I left with two de-icing sprays; a new, lightweight snow shovel; a new flashlight (which we badly needed); batteries in two sizes. It was delightful!

It's been snowing here for a few hours now, but nothing special. Yet.

Deb/AGBF

 

[Asscherhalo_lover]

It took me about 1hr 45min to get home, about 2x as long as usual, not too bad for terrible weather. They already announced that NYC schools will be closed tomorrow which is practically historic all by itself. Now I'm just going to watch from my window and hope the power stays on! Best of luck to us all!

 

[missy]

My dh's office closed before 3PM today. That never happens and they are closed tomorrow (they did not close during 9/11) so he will be working from home. I think the trains are stopping running this evening. NYC subways, NJ transit and the LIRR. The NYC subways don't shut down often so this is a big deal.

I hope everyone stays safe and warm and hope we all keep our power and internet through the storm! Fingers crossed!

 

[diamondringlover]

I pray you all stay safe and this monster storm isnt as bad as they are saying!! I was 17 in the blizzard of 78,I remember quite abit about it, we were is a rural area and we were out of school for a week!