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Is another price hike imminent in the near future?

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niceice

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As reported by IDEX:

At DTC Sight Prices are Unchanged, But …

(April 29, ''04, 15:53 Edahn Golan)

Prices and goods are unchanged at the DTC Sight taking place this week in London, with total volume estimated at $500 million. Clients in general seemed happy, but the DTC is already considering another price hike, the third this year, for Sight 5 in the first week of June.

While Sightholders have not yet been told how much of a price increase to expect, they were told in advance to expect the rise to be in the range of 3 – 7 percent. A final notice will probably be sent via the DTC intranet.

The expected price hike will come on top of an eight percent increase that has already taken place in two stages since January, which will mean the average price will increase by 11 – 15 percent in the first half of the year.

While far from a modest increase by any stretch of the imagination, rough diamonds from other sources have risen more than that, in many articles by almost 20 percent.

As noted above, the goods offered at the Sight were unchanged, with a noticeable shortage in the –11 goods and a continued limited supply of +3 carat goods.
 

niceice

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That was the article... Our advice is "Buy it when you see it" because it looks like the powers that be are intent on catching up on all the price increases they missed during the months immediately following 9/11.
 

Nicrez

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Why do we still hear that DeBeers is no longer a monopoly and that they have little control of the market, when DTC is a subsidiary of theirs and they still determine when to increase prices and when to sell more stones?!

Someone tell me what is DeBeer's control of the market and how the DTC can STILL be dictating, when there are "so many new sources not controlled by DTC"...blah blah blah....

Sorry, it's just funny to hear that prices are going up AGAIN...and AGAIN...and AGAIN...
rolleyes.gif
 

CaptAubrey

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----------------
On 4/29/2004 1:06:16 PM Nicrez wrote:





Someone tell me what is DeBeer's control of the market and how the DTC can STILL be dictating, when there are 'so many new sources not controlled by DTC'...blah blah blah....

----------------
they control about 50% by value, though they have a higher percentage of the high-end diamonds. the problem is that when they raise prices, so do all of their competitors, who would rather reap the benefits of higher prices than get into a price war that they would probably lose given dtc's greater resources.
 

Pair0Ducks

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So how quickly do these price hikes reach the consumer? I am shopping for a diamond between now and July. Is it likely prices will be 5% higher if I wait?
 

WinkHPD

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Yes, if not more. Not all of the price hikes have reached the consumer yet. I bought a fairly good sized parcel of H&A stones with PGS certs on them for a great price Monday morning. Tuesday I heard from my vendor that the price will be up 7% on these goods for the next shipment according to the cutter of them in Israel. No official change for them on the Rap, but my discount just shrunk. That means that my price will be higher the next time I buy the goods and that the price to you will be higher on the goods purchased next time.

I am hearing rumblings that prices are tightening on many of the under 1ct goods, even though the official price increases were on the 1cts + goods. It often takes a while for the changes to trickle through the cutters to the public, and when business is bad enough some times the increases are absorbed in the distribution channel. I think the room for such absorbtion is pretty well squeezed out of the channel now, so you will be seeing the increases come through.

Just my opinion of course.

Wink
 

oldminer

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The news today from overseas is that a further hike in prices will likely occur in July or August. This affects the pricing of rough diamonds and it does take time to filter down to the consumer. These price changes are not always across the board as the types of rough provided are not always of all qualities. DeBeers looks at the big picture and makes very calculated decisions about which segments of the market will allow tightening of supply or increases in price and also which areas won't allow it. They then make distribution of what they wish to offer in the market.....
 

niceice

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One thing we have been seeing lately is a reduction in the discount off of list (Rap) on a dealer level as opposed to an actual increase in price... This was discussed on another thread last week as we recall... But essentially instead of seeing the price per carat increase accordingly with the price increase, we're just seeing a decrease in the discount off of list that we get from the cutters as dealers.
 

Mara

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I know that some of the Pscope vendors have already seen higher costs and have started to pass those onto the customer in terms of higher pricing and less discounts. The good old days are about to be over!
cry.gif
 

Mark Turnowski

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As many of us have noticed there has been a significant price increase in diamonds the last few months. What's behind these increases? As opposed to the late 70's and early eighties when inflation was the driving factor, today's increases primarily revolve around supply and demand and the drop in value in the dollar. When Debeer's created the Dealer of Choice plan they in effect eliminated many previous site holders. These former site holders now have to go into the open market to secure diamonds. Having to stay in business and maintain their previous customer base has forced the dealers to bid up the parcels of rough.This has created a unique cycle whereby the bids for the parcels of rough has increased daily.We are witnessing in New York what is considered a "bren." The definition of "bren" is essentially that the prices are so hot that they are burning in your hands. Another factor is the increasing demand for diamonds from China.What started as a small trickle is developing into rainstorm. With China rapidly evolving into a major industrial power with the associated gain of wealth, consumer's are finally developing a desire for diamonds.In recent years, the Far East(Japan and South Korea in general)have created a trend for the exceptional cut diamonds. In fact we were selling ideal-cut diamonds there before the trend hit the United States. China is now desiring those same quality diamonds.This is creating a major trend in the worldwide diamond market.Another major factor is the drop in the value of the dollar. Not being an economist I can only report the information and conversations taking place in New York and Europe.With the dollar droping by close to 30% during the last year or so, the diamond producing countries have to maintain their pricing structure.As this is the trend you may see the increases in diamonds continue for a period of time.As of today the discounts are decreasing with manufacturers holding firm to their prices.In addition prices will probable increase going forward.How will this effect Pricescope consumers? I believe that there will be a period of sticker shock before the adjustments are accepted as reality with a shortage of choices available. The higher end of the market both in quality/color and exceptional cuts will be highly effected.As it is the prices of Ex./EX. AGS0 are breaking away from the other prices.Having been in the New York market for close to 30 years,I am only stating my simplified observations for the forum through the various contacts and information I have. Please feel free to make your own comments.
 

fire&ice

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China is creating much demand in many aspects of goods. Their demand for steel is one reason for the *huge* increase in steel prices. Seems diamonds is yet another aspect of demand.
 

baltneu

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I am new to all of this but the price increases based on supply and demand seems to be BS. If you go to a dealer or any diamond dealer, and you want a 2 carat rock or a 3 carat rock for example, they can have it to you within 24hrs. to show you. If you do not believe me, take a walk down 47th Street in NYC. Where is the lack of supply? DeBeers and the others are gouging us! Hopefully, what goes around will come around for them. I will happily provide the salt and pepper when they have to eat them.
 

niceice

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----------------
On 4/30/2004 9:27:28 AM baltneu wrote:

I am new to all of this but the price increases based on supply and demand seems to be BS. If you go to a dealer or any diamond dealer, and you want a 2 carat rock or a 3 carat rock for example, they can have it to you within 24hrs. to show you. If you do not believe me, take a walk down 47th Street in NYC. Where is the lack of supply?----------------


It's a controlled market. It has been for 200 years. It is not something that we have control over as dealers, the reality is that most of us here on PS work on a flat percentage of profit which is ridiculously low, especially in comparison to the percentage of mark-up enjoyed by many traditional B&M retailers. We're just the "buy, sell, buy, sell" portion of the industry, not the distribution pipeline that makes the decisions regarding what the initial prices will be for rough and what will be released or more appropriately "not released" at each site sale...

From today's Rapaport News:

apaport TradeWire - Friday April 30, 2004
-------------------------------------------

News: DTC March sight estimated at $600 million with no changes from previous sight. BHP and Rio Tinto raise prices and reduce allocations. High rough prices and severe shortages are squeezing cutter and dealer profits. Polished prices continue to firm as shortages of select qualities drive dealer demand.
 

niceice

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----------------
On 4/29/2004 2:02:27 PM Pair0Ducks wrote:

So how quickly do these price hikes reach the consumer? I am shopping for a diamond between now and July. Is it likely prices will be 5% higher if I wait?----------------


It will change in sections, sometimes more than others... About two weeks ago there was something like ninety changes in sections of the report, a little here, a little there... Last night there were 14 changes:

2.00 - 2.99 H SI1
2.00 - 2.99 H SI2
2.00 - 2.99 I SI1
2.00 - 2.99 I SI2
2.00 - 2.99 J SI1
2.00 - 2.99 J SI2
3.00 - 3.99 H SI1
3.00 - 3.99 H SI2
3.00 - 3.99 I VS2
3.00 - 3.99 I SI1
3.00 - 3.99 I SI2
3.00 - 3.99 J VS2
3.00 - 3.99 J SI1
3.00 - 3.99 J SI2

We're not getting into the percentage of change category by category because we're intentionally not trying to affect the individual mark-ups of the various competitors because that business is nobody's but their own IMO. But if "you" as the public have been staring at diamonds in this particular range, the prices went up last night and that's caused by the DTC, not the individual dealer.
 

Pair0Ducks

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Thanks for the info NI, what is your impression on the .75-.99 market? Does the market for smaller stones seem less volatile because of the larger supply?
 

Mark Turnowski

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Right now the market is more stable for the .75-.89 range. For the .90-.99 range it is a little more volatile. Where the volitality really exists is in the 1.25-1.49ct: and 1.70-1.99 range in better colors and clarities. Howver in due time the volatility will reach the other sizes.
 

niceice

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Friday, May 7th: This morning Rapaport Published 296 ROUND PRICE CHANGES FROM 04/30/04 TO 05/07/04 primarily in the 0.23 - 1.49 carat range... Like we indicated previously, it rotates in a cycle, it is rare that all categories will be affected at the same time, but undoubtedly when one category is increased the other categories will follow.
 

Rhino

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LOL... Todd we were warned by a few of our suppliers that we better update our lists becuase of this increase. This is like the 3rd increase in a month or 2?
 

niceice

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And actually more correctly, the price increased spanned HEAVILY across the 2.00 - 2.99 and 3.00 - 3.99 weight categories and through the colorless to near colorless ranges of the 4.00 and above range in addition to the lower weights as noted by us earlier... Our initial post this morning was based upon the Rap text press release "before" we actually saw the updated price sheet.
 

mdx

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Rhino
I went into the market on Tuesday looking for 30 good stones from a DTC sightholder that I have been dealing with for years.
I got two stones, normal, discounts slashed by 5% and an increase in the base price.
The times they are a changing.
Johan
 

fire&ice

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So, in the real world provided the cut is static, how much more would I have to pay for my 3.01 I/SI1?

If my stone was a G/VS2, how much more?
 

fire&ice

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So, in the real world provided the cut is static, how much more would I have to pay for my 3.01 I/SI1?

If my stone was a G/VS2, how much more?
 

fire&ice

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----------------
On 5/8/2004 10:53:53 AM fire&ice wrote:

So, in the real world provided the cut is static, how much more would I have to pay for my 3.01 I/SI1?

If my stone was a G/VS2, how much more? ----------------



You all talk about price hikes in the esoteric. Makes me wonder what's the hype when someone can not answer a very simple question that is paramount to the consumer.

If one can not answer about a 3 carat, answer with an example of a 1 carat in the real world of money difference.
 

LucyG

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Hello All! I have just read through this thread because I am planning to buy a diamond and I am researching the overall industry and pricing. I truly appreciate the insight you all have shared and I hope you can answer my question.

The graphs shared in this thread have been very helpful to understand the recent price volatility, and I understand a little bit about supply/demand relative to price. What I see when I compare the stock market graph to the diamond price graphs is that the price of diamonds dipped right along with the stock market and appears to somewhat follow that trend. Does anyone know if that is something that holds true over a longer period in history?

There is so much talk about how the prices are going to go up, up, up if you don't buy right now. If I dig back into what I learned in my marketing and econ courses, isn't it true that for any product you can only charge a price that the market can bear because there is a point where consumers will no longer buy? In a sense then doesn't pricing too high decrease demand...which ultimately impacts price. Some may argue that our economy is getting better, but it really looks as if the jobs being created are lower paying jobs, and we are entering a period of inflation so there will be fewer people able to spend their (limited) discretionary dollars on luxury items like diamonds--regardless of the price. If that's the case, won't it be harder to sell diamonds simply because there will be fewer people able to afford them?

I know I must be missing something, or maybe I am just not surrounded by as many filthy rich people who buy this kind of luxury item all the time ;o). Like a faithful steward of my hard-earned dollars, I am trying to figure out if there is a better time to buy diamonds because I want to maximize what I can get for the dollars I have to spend. I have to assume that the folks who mine, cut, polish and distribute diamonds can only do so if they can move the product. Thanks again for your insight! ;o)
 

niceice

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"Officially" Rap prices have the capacity to change every Thursday night at midnight, but the reality is that Rapaport is not changing on a surface level as fast as discounts are being reduced on a cutter to dealer level... But for those who are wondering, this is what happened last night, Thursday, July 23:

260 ROUND PRICE CHANGES FROM 07/16/04 TO 07/23/04
There have been substantial increases in the price of round brilliant cut diamonds just about every week for the past few months and there is every indication that prices will continue to increase well through the end of the year.

168 PEAR PRICE CHANGES FROM 06/04/04 TO 07/02/04
The pear shape list is also used for the pricing of Emerald, Asscher, Cushion and some princess cut pricing...

NO MARQUISE PRICE CHANGES FROM 06/04/04 TO 07/02/04
Which means to expect it real soon...

399 PRINCESS PRICE CHANGES FROM 06/04/04 TO 07/02/04
A very popular shape at the moment and popularity drives price...

Okay, so most people are focused on rounds, this is what changed last night:

0.90 - 0.99 D IF
0.90 - 0.99 D VVS1
0.90 - 0.99 D VVS2
0.90 - 0.99 E IF
0.90 - 0.99 E VVS1
0.90 - 0.99 E VVS2
0.90 - 0.99 F IF
0.90 - 0.99 F VVS1
0.90 - 0.99 F VVS2
0.90 - 0.99 G IF
0.90 - 0.99 G VVS1
0.90 - 0.99 G VVS2
1.00 - 1.49 D IF
1.00 - 1.49 D VVS1
1.00 - 1.49 D VVS2
1.00 - 1.49 E IF
1.00 - 1.49 E VVS1
1.00 - 1.49 E VVS2
1.00 - 1.49 F IF
1.00 - 1.49 F VVS1
1.00 - 1.49 F VVS2
1.00 - 1.49 G IF
1.00 - 1.49 G VVS1
1.00 - 1.49 G VVS2
1.50 - 1.99 D IF
1.50 - 1.99 D VVS1
1.50 - 1.99 D VVS2
1.50 - 1.99 E IF
1.50 - 1.99 E VVS1
1.50 - 1.99 E VVS2
1.50 - 1.99 F IF
1.50 - 1.99 F VVS1
1.50 - 1.99 F VVS2
1.50 - 1.99 G IF
1.50 - 1.99 G VVS1
1.50 - 1.99 G VVS2
2.00 - 2.99 D IF
2.00 - 2.99 D VVS1
2.00 - 2.99 D VVS2
2.00 - 2.99 D VS1
2.00 - 2.99 D VS2
2.00 - 2.99 D SI1
2.00 - 2.99 D SI2
2.00 - 2.99 D SI3
2.00 - 2.99 D I1
2.00 - 2.99 E IF
2.00 - 2.99 E VVS1
2.00 - 2.99 E VVS2
2.00 - 2.99 E VS1
2.00 - 2.99 E VS2
2.00 - 2.99 E SI1
2.00 - 2.99 E SI2
2.00 - 2.99 E SI3
2.00 - 2.99 E I1
2.00 - 2.99 F IF
2.00 - 2.99 F VVS1
2.00 - 2.99 F VVS2
2.00 - 2.99 F VS1
2.00 - 2.99 F VS2
2.00 - 2.99 F SI1
2.00 - 2.99 F SI2
2.00 - 2.99 F SI3
2.00 - 2.99 F I1
2.00 - 2.99 G IF
2.00 - 2.99 G VVS1
2.00 - 2.99 G VVS2
2.00 - 2.99 G VS1
2.00 - 2.99 G VS2
2.00 - 2.99 G SI1
2.00 - 2.99 G SI2
2.00 - 2.99 G SI3
2.00 - 2.99 G I1
2.00 - 2.99 H IF
2.00 - 2.99 H VVS1
2.00 - 2.99 H VVS2
2.00 - 2.99 H VS1
2.00 - 2.99 H VS2
2.00 - 2.99 H SI1
2.00 - 2.99 H SI2
2.00 - 2.99 H SI3
2.00 - 2.99 H I1
2.00 - 2.99 I IF
2.00 - 2.99 I VVS1
2.00 - 2.99 I VVS2
2.00 - 2.99 I VS1
2.00 - 2.99 I VS2
2.00 - 2.99 I SI1
2.00 - 2.99 I SI2
2.00 - 2.99 I SI3
2.00 - 2.99 I I1
2.00 - 2.99 J IF
2.00 - 2.99 J VVS1
2.00 - 2.99 J VVS2
2.00 - 2.99 J VS1
2.00 - 2.99 J VS2
2.00 - 2.99 J SI1
2.00 - 2.99 J SI2
2.00 - 2.99 J SI3
2.00 - 2.99 J I1
3.00 - 3.99 D IF
3.00 - 3.99 D VVS1
3.00 - 3.99 D VVS2
3.00 - 3.99 D VS1
3.00 - 3.99 D VS2
3.00 - 3.99 D SI1
3.00 - 3.99 D SI2
3.00 - 3.99 D SI3
3.00 - 3.99 D I1
3.00 - 3.99 E IF
3.00 - 3.99 E VVS1
3.00 - 3.99 E VVS2
3.00 - 3.99 E VS1
3.00 - 3.99 E VS2
3.00 - 3.99 E SI1
3.00 - 3.99 E SI2
3.00 - 3.99 E SI3
3.00 - 3.99 E I1
3.00 - 3.99 F IF
3.00 - 3.99 F VVS1
3.00 - 3.99 F VVS2
3.00 - 3.99 F VS1
3.00 - 3.99 F VS2
3.00 - 3.99 F SI1
3.00 - 3.99 F SI2
3.00 - 3.99 F SI3
3.00 - 3.99 F I1
3.00 - 3.99 G IF
3.00 - 3.99 G VVS1
3.00 - 3.99 G VVS2
3.00 - 3.99 G VS1
3.00 - 3.99 G VS2
3.00 - 3.99 G SI1
3.00 - 3.99 G SI2
3.00 - 3.99 G SI3
3.00 - 3.99 G I1
3.00 - 3.99 H IF
3.00 - 3.99 H VVS1
3.00 - 3.99 H VVS2
3.00 - 3.99 H VS1
3.00 - 3.99 H VS2
3.00 - 3.99 H SI1
3.00 - 3.99 H SI2
3.00 - 3.99 H SI3
3.00 - 3.99 H I1
3.00 - 3.99 I IF
3.00 - 3.99 I VVS1
3.00 - 3.99 I VVS2
3.00 - 3.99 I VS1
3.00 - 3.99 I VS2
3.00 - 3.99 I SI1
3.00 - 3.99 I SI2
3.00 - 3.99 I SI3
3.00 - 3.99 I I1
3.00 - 3.99 J IF
3.00 - 3.99 J VVS1
3.00 - 3.99 J VVS2
3.00 - 3.99 J VS1
3.00 - 3.99 J VS2
3.00 - 3.99 J SI1
3.00 - 3.99 J SI2
3.00 - 3.99 J SI3
3.00 - 3.99 J I1
4.00 - 4.99 D IF
4.00 - 4.99 D VVS1
4.00 - 4.99 D VVS2
4.00 - 4.99 D VS1
4.00 - 4.99 D VS2
4.00 - 4.99 D SI1
4.00 - 4.99 D SI2
4.00 - 4.99 D SI3
4.00 - 4.99 D I1
4.00 - 4.99 E IF
4.00 - 4.99 E VVS1
4.00 - 4.99 E VVS2
4.00 - 4.99 E VS1
4.00 - 4.99 E VS2
4.00 - 4.99 E SI1
4.00 - 4.99 E SI2
4.00 - 4.99 E SI3
4.00 - 4.99 E I1
4.00 - 4.99 F IF
4.00 - 4.99 F VVS1
4.00 - 4.99 F VVS2
4.00 - 4.99 F VS1
4.00 - 4.99 F VS2
4.00 - 4.99 F SI1
4.00 - 4.99 F SI2
4.00 - 4.99 F SI3
4.00 - 4.99 F I1
4.00 - 4.99 G IF
4.00 - 4.99 G VVS1
4.00 - 4.99 G VVS2
4.00 - 4.99 G VS1
4.00 - 4.99 G VS2
4.00 - 4.99 G SI1
4.00 - 4.99 G SI2
4.00 - 4.99 G SI3
4.00 - 4.99 G I1
4.00 - 4.99 H IF
4.00 - 4.99 H VVS1
4.00 - 4.99 H VVS2
4.00 - 4.99 H VS1
4.00 - 4.99 H VS2
4.00 - 4.99 H SI1
4.00 - 4.99 H SI2
4.00 - 4.99 H SI3
4.00 - 4.99 H I1
4.00 - 4.99 I IF
4.00 - 4.99 I VVS1
4.00 - 4.99 I VVS2
4.00 - 4.99 I VS1
4.00 - 4.99 I VS2
4.00 - 4.99 I SI1
4.00 - 4.99 I SI2
4.00 - 4.99 I SI3
4.00 - 4.99 I I1
4.00 - 4.99 J IF
4.00 - 4.99 J VVS1
4.00 - 4.99 J VVS2
4.00 - 4.99 J VS1
4.00 - 4.99 J VS2
4.00 - 4.99 J SI1
4.00 - 4.99 J SI2
4.00 - 4.99 J SI3
4.00 - 4.99 J I1
5.00 - 5.99 D IF
5.00 - 5.99 D VVS1
5.00 - 5.99 D VVS2
5.00 - 5.99 D VS1
5.00 - 5.99 D VS2
5.00 - 5.99 D SI1
5.00 - 5.99 D SI2
5.00 - 5.99 E IF
5.00 - 5.99 E VVS1
5.00 - 5.99 E VVS2
5.00 - 5.99 E VS1
5.00 - 5.99 E VS2
5.00 - 5.99 E SI1
5.00 - 5.99 E SI2
5.00 - 5.99 F IF
5.00 - 5.99 F VVS1
5.00 - 5.99 F VVS2
5.00 - 5.99 F VS1
5.00 - 5.99 F VS2
5.00 - 5.99 F SI1
5.00 - 5.99 F SI2
5.00 - 5.99 G IF
5.00 - 5.99 G VVS1
5.00 - 5.99 G VVS2
5.00 - 5.99 G VS1
5.00 - 5.99 G VS2
5.00 - 5.99 G SI1
5.00 - 5.99 G SI2
5.00 - 5.99 H IF
5.00 - 5.99 H VVS1
5.00 - 5.99 H VVS2
5.00 - 5.99 H VS1
5.00 - 5.99 H VS2
5.00 - 5.99 H SI1
5.00 - 5.99 H SI2
 

fire&ice

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So, if I am reading this correctly, large stone in excess of 2 carats rose quite a bit all over the board of "quality". Diamonds under 1.99 were affected in the GVVS2 or better.

Curious if there is a bar graph of some sort for increase per grade group.

Is the demand for larger stones on the rise? Or are they more rare in the current marketplace? Or both? And, it would seem that larger stone buyers are not as picky?
 

niceice

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Messages
1,792
----------------
On 7/23/2004 10:18:04 AM fire&ice wrote:

So, if I am reading this correctly, large stone in excess of 2 carats rose quite a bit all over the board of 'quality'. Diamonds under 1.99 were affected in the GVVS2 or better.

Curious if there is a bar graph of some sort for increase per grade group.

Is the demand for larger stones on the rise? Or are they more rare in the current marketplace? Or both? And, it would seem that larger stone buyers are not as picky?----------------


That is correct "this time" but the changes have been occuring across the board, it's just that Martin Rapaport seems hesitant to publish the changes across all categories at the same time. So each week a different section or category takes a hit, but across the board we are seeing dramatic reductions in the cutter to dealer discount and with each DTC Sight Sale the cutters are reporting reduced discounts and a reduction in supply. We have been selling more larger diamonds over the past few weeks than we have in the past and we are seeing severe shortages of 0.80 - 0.99 and 1.20 - 1.49 and 1.60 - 1.99 carat weight categories in the types of makes that we specialize in... There is a lot of dreck out there, but as you know we're pretty selective.

From Rapaport News:

High rough prices forcing cutters to raise prices. Discounts tightening for carat and larger better quality (H+, VS+) certs but buyers resisting higher prices for medium to low qualities. India Jewelry Show attracts strong local buying with June polished exports up 46.35% to $783 million; rough imports up 20.95% to $660.25 million.
Belgian H1 polished exports up 16.4% to $4.01 billion. U.S. May polished imports up 5% to $1.25 billion. Rio Tinto: Argyle H1 production down 51% to 6.28 million cts; Diavik H1 production up 201% to 2.29 million cts; Diavik Q2 production up 166% to a record 1.36 million cts.

-- Now that's some serious volume
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