Guesses as to what gems will increase in price in the future?

[mousey]

I was thinking about this recently, not because I m interested in making an investment (if only I had the cash), just out of curiosity.... What gems do people think will increase in value in the future? Gems that the market is pricing cheaply at the mo, but people think their price will increase in the future. Something like Paraiba (i.e. used to be relatively cheap, now is hugely expensive). I know its not possible to know the answer to this question, but I d love to hear others opinions on it.

 

[Karl_K]

really high end large untreated ruby will keep going up in my opinion.
Everything else will likely bounce up and down.
"buzz" stones that are selling for "buzz" prices will almost always drop because the prices are based on nothing but hot air.
Paraiba and tanzanite are 2 examples.

 

[RockHugger]

Paraibas I think will continue to go up in price, russian demantoids, tanzanite (although I doubt it will be in the next few yrs like ''they'' say). Anything that is single source IMO.

 

[LD]

Look at it this way:

Tanzanite prices have actually dropped in recent years. Unless the mine runs out (and 10 years ago they said it would only last for 10 years - 10 years later they're saying assume another 10 years - so assume 100

) I doubt whether it will increase.

Paraiba prices (for good quality material) is now higher than it was because finding good saturated pieces is becoming more difficult. So I don't think it will rise but it may stabilise. However, you only need a new find and the price may well go down again.

As Karl mentioned above, certain high level gemstones such as unheated, untreated rubies, emeralds, sapphires, alexandrites may well hold their price. You'll know if a gemstone is in that category if the selling price now is enough to make your eyes water and costs as much as a car!

However the market is such that even the high end gemstones are holding rather than rising in price and if trying to re-sell you should expect a loss.

There is no such thing as a safe bet for investment when buying gemstones. My advice to you is buy what you like and assume that NOTHING will be an investment - ever! That way, you'll be a winner!

 

[Arcadian]

Date: 1/31/2010 10:26:34 AM
Author: LovingDiamonds
Look at it this way:

Tanzanite prices have actually dropped in recent years. Unless the mine runs out (and 10 years ago they said it would only last for 10 years - 10 years later they''re saying assume another 10 years - so assume 100

) I doubt whether it will increase.

Paraiba prices (for good quality material) is now higher than it was because finding good saturated pieces is becoming more difficult. So I don''t think it will rise but it may stabilise. However, you only need a new find and the price may well go down again.

As Karl mentioned above, certain high level gemstones such as unheated, untreated rubies, emeralds, sapphires, alexandrites may well hold their price. You''ll know if a gemstone is in that category if the selling price now is enough to make your eyes water and costs as much as a car!

However the market is such that even the high end gemstones are holding rather than rising in price and if trying to re-sell you should expect a loss.

There is no such thing as a safe bet for investment when buying gemstones. My advice to you is buy what you like and assume that NOTHING will be an investment - ever! That way, you''ll be a winner!

That quote needs to be a sticky.

-A

 

[Arkteia]

Date: 1/31/2010 2:35:47 PM
Author: Arcadian

Date: 1/31/2010 10:26:34 AM
Author: LovingDiamonds
Look at it this way:

Tanzanite prices have actually dropped in recent years. Unless the mine runs out (and 10 years ago they said it would only last for 10 years - 10 years later they''re saying assume another 10 years - so assume 100

) I doubt whether it will increase.

Paraiba prices (for good quality material) is now higher than it was because finding good saturated pieces is becoming more difficult. So I don''t think it will rise but it may stabilise. However, you only need a new find and the price may well go down again.

As Karl mentioned above, certain high level gemstones such as unheated, untreated rubies, emeralds, sapphires, alexandrites may well hold their price. You''ll know if a gemstone is in that category if the selling price now is enough to make your eyes water and costs as much as a car!

However the market is such that even the high end gemstones are holding rather than rising in price and if trying to re-sell you should expect a loss.

There is no such thing as a safe bet for investment when buying gemstones. My advice to you is buy what you like and assume that NOTHING will be an investment - ever! That way, you''ll be a winner!

That quote needs to be a sticky.

-A

Disagree: a collection (sold as a collectiion) may be an investment; a museum may buy it.

To a degree, Paraiblas are an investment: if you bought it in the 90-es and are selling them now, you may not sell it at a full price but the resale price will still be much higher. Even considering inflation rate. Someone will always be willing to buy it from you at price below the market value but still much higher as the market value in the 90-es.

Everything that has a potential to be improved Be-treated will rise; people will be looking for the stones definitely not treated and buy something obtained during current decade or earlier. Just because science always lags behind new methods of "forgery" and people want to be sure.

I''d buy tsavorites and spinel; the market seems to favor them. Also, some stones which have been discovered and mined out in several places; orange spessartines is one example. Definitely not Tanzanites.

GOOD amethysts; they are still relatively cheap but the they will soon be mined out.

Demantoids...the price is as high as it can get; but there is something going on in Russia...I hear they are mining less and less. Whether they "conserved" the mines or the mines are close to be mined out, I don''t know. Anyhow, if Russian mines do not produce anything the stone will become a rarity. And definitely grow up in price.

Peridot(!) is rapidly increasing in price. Again, who would have thought.

I think we are close to mining out everything that is worthy and unworthy. There is a Russian stone, Charoite, opaque but of a beautiful violet color. It has decent MOH index and is still quite available. The projected life of the mines is about 10 years.

Gold and silver. Platinum is down because of automobile industry. Makes sense to order platinum settings because platinum is going to get expensive again. Or high-carat gold.

Chrome diopsiides are becomning more expensive. Still cheap, good time to buy.

Bottom line: whatever your budget permits. It is all going to raise in price. 10 years from now we are goiing to look for "affordable" chrome diopsides.

Oh, and uvarovite drusy. They are becoming more popular but ebay price is peanuts!

 

[blithesome71]

*Guesses as to what gems will increase in price in the future?*


- Spessartite.

 

[T L]

Rare colored diamonds (pinks, blues, greens, reds) have always sold high at auction, but they also cost a great deal of money as well.

I think spinels are extremely undervalued right now.

 

[innerkitten]

Yes there are so few pink diamonds already so I''m sure the price will increase.

 

[LD]

Date: 1/31/2010 6:42:01 PM
Author: crasru

Date: 1/31/2010 2:35:47 PM
Author: Arcadian

Date: 1/31/2010 10:26:34 AM
Author: LovingDiamonds
Look at it this way:

Tanzanite prices have actually dropped in recent years. Unless the mine runs out (and 10 years ago they said it would only last for 10 years - 10 years later they're saying assume another 10 years - so assume 100

) I doubt whether it will increase.

Paraiba prices (for good quality material) is now higher than it was because finding good saturated pieces is becoming more difficult. So I don't think it will rise but it may stabilise. However, you only need a new find and the price may well go down again.

As Karl mentioned above, certain high level gemstones such as unheated, untreated rubies, emeralds, sapphires, alexandrites may well hold their price. You'll know if a gemstone is in that category if the selling price now is enough to make your eyes water and costs as much as a car!

However the market is such that even the high end gemstones are holding rather than rising in price and if trying to re-sell you should expect a loss.

There is no such thing as a safe bet for investment when buying gemstones. My advice to you is buy what you like and assume that NOTHING will be an investment - ever! That way, you'll be a winner!

That quote needs to be a sticky.

-A

Disagree: a collection (sold as a collectiion) may be an investment; a museum may buy it.

To a degree, Paraiblas are an investment: if you bought it in the 90-es and are selling them now, you may not sell it at a full price but the resale price will still be much higher. Even considering inflation rate. Someone will always be willing to buy it from you at price below the market value but still much higher as the market value in the 90-es.

Everything that has a potential to be improved Be-treated will rise; people will be looking for the stones definitely not treated and buy something obtained during current decade or earlier. Just because science always lags behind new methods of 'forgery' and people want to be sure.

I'd buy tsavorites and spinel; the market seems to favor them. Also, some stones which have been discovered and mined out in several places; orange spessartines is one example. Definitely not Tanzanites.

GOOD amethysts; they are still relatively cheap but the they will soon be mined out.

Demantoids...the price is as high as it can get; but there is something going on in Russia...I hear they are mining less and less. Whether they 'conserved' the mines or the mines are close to be mined out, I don't know. Anyhow, if Russian mines do not produce anything the stone will become a rarity. And definitely grow up in price.

Peridot(!) is rapidly increasing in price. Again, who would have thought.

I think we are close to mining out everything that is worthy and unworthy. There is a Russian stone, Charoite, opaque but of a beautiful violet color. It has decent MOH index and is still quite available. The projected life of the mines is about 10 years.

Gold and silver. Platinum is down because of automobile industry. Makes sense to order platinum settings because platinum is going to get expensive again. Or high-carat gold.

Chrome diopsiides are becomning more expensive. Still cheap, good time to buy.

Bottom line: whatever your budget permits. It is all going to raise in price. 10 years from now we are goiing to look for 'affordable' chrome diopsides.

Oh, and uvarovite drusy. They are becoming more popular but ebay price is peanuts!

Museums don't buy collections generally. They are loaned or given them.

Paraiba - I bought many of my Paraibas when the price was much much lower and the quality/colour was on the market. I know, from experience, that I will not make money on them. Not enough for me to want to sell them. Are they an investment? No. This is from experience.

Spinels - have always been undervalued unfortunately. Why should this change?

I strongly disagree with your bottom line quote highlighted above. There is no way you can predict this. As an example, I have an exceptional Emerald. The appraisal from 10 years ago has not changed to the market price now. As Karl wisely said above, prices go up and down.

As fast as gems are mined out, new ones are found.

And by the way .............. I actually hope you're right and that I'm wrong because I'm potentially sitting on a nice investment!!!! However, I think I'll stick to the Lottery because I'm more likely to win on that than realising a substantial investment from my gemstones in the next 10 years

 

[rosetta]

I''d have to agree with LD

Buy for the love, not the prospect of making money.

However, you may have to tell your other half that it''s an investment, darling....

 

[T L]

I failed to mention these stones, and in top quality as well. The larger the size, the more desirable of course.

Untreated Burmese rubies.
Untreated Kashmir and Burmese sapphire.
Untreated Muzo Columbian emerald.

The finest qualities have probably been mined out, so second hand stones are what is left, and they always fetch a great deal at auction, in particular Burmese rubies of top quality and sizes above 3 carats.

 

[DistinctionJewelry]

The sagest advice I''ve gotten is "If you like it and you can afford it, buy it because you may never see it again." Prices may go up or down with wild unpredictability, but if you love a stone you''ll only regret buying it if you did so as an investment. In my experience, I''m more likely to regret *not* buying a stone that I loved if it was within my budget.

 

[Indylady]

Increasing in price isn''t necessarily the same as increasing in resale value. That being said, if you''re asking about gems that will be larger to find on the market, I have to agree with untreated rubies and also large demantoids as well; basically, gems that are already rare now.

 

[Arkteia]

I do not totally support these who mentioned only gems that are already expensive. In the beginning of this year, I was reading a new book on gems that mentioned that "you can buy a very good peridot for under $ 150.00". Now - decent, yes, very good, no, unless you are in the business or have been collecting for many years and absolutely know where to look. I have also read that Idar-Oberstein has been expressing more interest in iolite. What should be my conclusion? That it would be nice to buy a good peridot since the price is still reasonable. Or maybe invest in an iolite because it is still cheap. Prices for garnets are rising exponentially, it seems. Rhodolite was very cheap, and look at what is happening now.

I wonder what geologists think.

 

[MJO]

I love top quality Oregon Sustone. Large stone light Reds are very rare and it is only found in Oregon. I bought alot of tsavorite and spessartite Garnets when they were available. Now that the large strikes are over prices have gone up sustantially. Sunstone is untreated and relatively cheap. Also EPA regulations and fuel prices have raised mining costs.

Regards,
Maurice

 

[DistinctionJewelry]

Well, I haven''t really been doing this for long enough to give any sort of informed guess - but I think the perspective of looking at stones that are cheap now is a good one. There seems to be a long history of viewing certain stones as inferior, and then they catch on and become expensive.

Colored diamonds, peridot, topaz - it seems it''s easy for a stone to start out as the ugly duckling and transcend. Iolite has quadrupled in price over the last few years. I''m guessing stones that are beautiful yet not highly valued right now will become more expensive in the future. I see non-transparent "mineral" cabochons becoming more popular/less stigmatized as time goes on and the more beautiful/unusual of them commanding high prices.

 

[misssoph]

Well I suppose another way of asking the same questionis: What should I buy now as I wont be able to afford to in 5 years time?

 

[blithesome71]

Date: 1/31/2010 11:12:46 PM
Author: crasru
I do not totally support these who mentioned only gems that are already expensive. In the beginning of this year, I was reading a new book on gems that mentioned that ''you can buy a very good peridot for under $ 150.00''. Now - decent, yes, very good, no, unless you are in the business or have been collecting for many years and absolutely know where to look. I have also read that Idar-Oberstein has been expressing more interest in iolite. What should be my conclusion? That it would be nice to buy a good peridot since the price is still reasonable. Or maybe invest in an iolite because it is still cheap. Prices for garnets are rising exponentially, it seems. Rhodolite was very cheap, and look at what is happening now.

I wonder what geologists think.

Thanks crasru. I didn''t know that. In that case, then I should probably go for this native cut iolite I''m eyeing for quite sometime while I still can afford it

 

[Edward Bristol]

Fine pink spinels.